Broughton Bypass Model Forecasting Report FINAL

Broughton Bypass Model

Forecasting Report

FINAL

April 2014

Contents

1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Study Area 2 1.3 Forecast Model Scope 3 1.4 Purpose of the Report 4 1.5 Report Structure 4

2 Future Year Growth Scenarios 5 2.1 Overview 5 2.2 Forecasting Scenarios 5 2.3 Data Sources 7

3 Network Development 8 3.1 Overview 8 3.2 Do Minimum Network 8 3.3 Do Something Network 9

4 Development Traffic 11 4.1 Development Overview 11 4.2 Development Sites 12 4.3 Development Phasing 13 4.4 Development Trip Generation 13 4.5 Development Trip Distribution 14

5 Background Traffic Growth 15 5.1 Outline 15 5.2 TEMPRO Factors 15 5.3 NTM Growth 16

6 Development and Background Traffic Growth Combined 17

7 Future Year Assignment 19 7.1 Assignment 19 7.2 Convergence 19 7.3 Production of 12-Hour Flows 20 7.4 Production of AADT and AAWT Flows 21

8 Model Outputs 22 8.1 Future Year Traffic Flows 22 8.2 Forecast Network Performance 25

9 Summary 27

Figure 1-1 - Broughton Traffic Model – Extents of Detailed Model Area 2 Figure 1-2 - Model extents 3

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report

Figure 2-1 - Modelled components for forecast scenarios. 6 Figure 3-1 - Proposed Bypass Alignment 10 Figure 6-1 - Visual Representation of Matrix Factoring 18 Figure 8-1 - Broughton Crossroads Selected Links 22

Table 4-1 - Preston Housing Sites 12 Table 4-2 - Preston Employment Sites 12 Table 4-3 - Wyre Housing Sites 12 Table 4-4 - Wyre Employment Sites 12 Table 4-5 - Trip Rates 13 Table 4-6 - Housing and Employment Development Site Trips 14 Table 5-1 - TEMPRO areas modelled 15 Table 5-2 - NTM based Growth Factors and Vehicle Trip Totals 16 Table 6-1 - TEMPRO and Development Site Growth Comparison 17 Table 7-1 - Calculated generalized cost parameters for 2017 19 Table 7-2 - Calculated generalized cost parameters for 2032 19 Table 7-3 - Factors to Convert AM and PM to 12-Hour 20 Table 7-4 - Factors to Convert AM and PM to 12-Hour 21 Table 8-1 - A6 Garstang Road (North), 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows 23 Table 8-2 - B5269 Whittingham Lane, 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows 23 Table 8-3 - A6 Garstang Road (South), 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows 24 Table 8-4 - B5269 Woodplumpton Lane, 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows 25 Table 8-5 - Model Statistics 26

Appendix A – Housing and Employment Development Sites Appendix B – Distribution Plots Appendix C – Peak Hour Flow Plots Appendix D – AADT Flow Plots Appendix E – Peak Hour Difference Plots

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

In 2012 Jacobs was commissioned by Lancashire County Council (LCC) to build a traffic model of Broughton and its surrounding area.

Since 1986 LCC has promoted a bypass of the village of Broughton as a means of removing traffic from the village centre. The A6 through Broughton experiences congestion which is attributed to the traffic signalled junctions at A6 Broughton crossroads and M55 Junction 1. This is an issue particularly at peak times, including the weekday commuting peaks as well as peaks in traffic at the weekend.

In May 1991 LCC consulted on two bypass routes, known as Route A (online at the southern end close to the M55) and Route B (mainly offline). In January 1992 LCC approved Route B and undertook to apply for planning permission. Planning permission was subsequently granted and has since been extended, now expiring in July 2013.

The primary objective behind the development of the Broughton Transport Model is to inform the renewal of a Planning Application for the Broughton Bypass Route B. The model was developed to: • Demonstrate the impacts that the proposals are likely to have on the local and strategic road network; • Inform the environmental impacts due to traffic flow on Noise, Air Quality, Water and other environmental indices; and • Support public / stakeholder consultation (including the Highways Agency).

Secondary objective: • Provide a platform for testing master planning proposals in the north of Preston and associated junction / network improvements.

In March 2013 a strategic macro base model constructed using PTV’s VISUM software was completed and then used to produce traffic forecasts for 2017 and 2032, the proposed bypass opening and design years, for both a Do Minimum and a Do Something scenario. The forecast demand process was fixed with variable demand not being undertaken.

This model considers only private vehicles, including HGVs; no public transport was required to be modelled.

Forecast flows from these models were supplied to Jacobs’ environment team in May 2013 to undertake the assessment for the planning application.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 1

1.2 Study Area

The detailed study area was chosen to allow for analysis of traffic flows through Broughton and the impact of development pressures on the existing highway infrastructure. Temporary and permanent Automatic Traffic Counts (ATC) and Traffic Flow Data System (TRADS) counts from the M6, M55, A6, B5269 and other local roads have been used to aid the validation of flows from these areas. The extents of the detailed study area can be considered to be: • North – just south of the village of Barton on the A6; • East – the junction of Whittingham Lane and Langley Lane; • South – just south of the Black Bull junction in Fulwood on the A6; and • West – to the western edge of the B5411.

The extent of the detailed study area modelled is shown below in Figure 1-1

Figure 1-1 - Broughton Traffic Model – Extents of Detailed Model Area

Beyond the detailed study area the model considers demand from across the north of England. The northern extents of the model was the Scottish border while the southern extent of the model was a line between Chester and Grimsby including Cheshire, South Yorkshire, North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. The extent of the model is shown in Figure 1-2 overleaf.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 2

Figure 1-2 - Model extents

1.3 Forecast Model Scope

Developing the forecast models involves using the 2012 base model as a starting point, applying the necessary background traffic growth, including future developments, and using PTV’s Visum software to simulate highway conditions in the future; both with and without the proposed bypass.

The purpose of the Forecast Models is to provide forecast flows to support the resubmission of the bypass planning application and to be used as a development tool by LCC to test the impact of future developments on the local road network.

The Forecast Models must aim to accurately predict flows on all roads which are within the detailed area so that they can successfully fulfil the objectives detailed in Section 1.1.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 3

In order to reach a satisfactory level of accuracy, the models not only need to reflect the impact of the bypass, but also need to take into account the impact of any developments and highway schemes within the modelled area.

To fulfil the aforementioned objectives the Forecast Models must therefore: • Accurately predict the volume of traffic on each significant road in the designated Forecast Years, particularly those situated within the detailed modelled area; • Account for both the scheme itself and potential future developments in the surrounding area; • Compare the performance of the network both with and without the bypass and any improvements to identify changes in delay and flow patterns resulting from the scheme; and • Inform the renewal of the Planning Application by providing accurate information on forecast traffic flows.

1.4 Purpose of the Report

The Forecasting Report describes the methodology used to develop the future year matrices and to verify conformance with current appraisal guidance.

1.5 Report Structure

This report follows the suggested structure given in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB), Vol 12, Section 2, Part 1 Appendix C. This is:

• Section 2 – Future Year Growth Scenarios; • Section 3 – Network Development; • Section 4 – Development Traffic; • Section 5 – Background Traffic Growth; • Section 6 – Development and Background Traffic Growth Combined • Section 7 – Future Year Assignments; • Section 8 – Model Outputs; • Section 9 – Summary.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 4

2 Future Year Growth Scenarios

2.1 Overview

The Forecast Models were derived from the validated 2012 Base Model developed in March 2013. Further details on the development of the Base Model can be found in the Local Model Validation Report (LMVR).

The study area covered by the model centres on the location of the proposed bypass, and has been coded to different levels of detail, depending on the proximity of the area to the scheme, as illustrated in Figure 1-2 in Section 1.2.

At the centre of the model is the detailed model area, this is modelled in the finest level of detail and accuracy. Outputs from this area of the model will be fed into other assessments and will be used to make informed decisions on the future of the bypass. Outside the detailed model area lies the buffer area where network coding and zoning structure is much less detailed but still contributes to the wider modelling processes. This part of the model is designed to ‘smooth out’ traffic coming into the model from the external model area. The external model area is used to represent traffic traveling in and out of the buffer area along the main corridors. For this model the external zone helps to ensure realistic flows on the M6 and M55.

In order to update the Base Model to the Forecast Models, a number of changes are required to the two fundamental components of the modelled area: the network and the demand;

• Network: Addition and coding of new links and nodes which are associated with the scheme and surrounding developments and any changes to existing links. • Traffic Demand: Updating the validated matrices for 2012 to reflect traffic levels in the forecast years, taking into account natural background growth in traffic, as well as trip generation associated with surrounding developments.

The revised trip matrices are then assigned into the network to produce both Do Minimum and Do Something forecast scenarios.

2.2 Forecasting Scenarios

Forecast models need to demonstrate a good representation of the future year traffic levels and distributions under a variety of differing circumstances.

Therefore, a number of forecast scenarios need to be tested in order to show that the scheme is beneficial for opening and design years.

The scheme was split into two forecast years to demonstrate the long term benefits of the scheme. The forecast years are;

• 2017: The projected opening year of the completed scheme • 2032: Long term design year, fifteen years after the scheme has opened.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 5

Both of these forecast years are tested with and without the scheme in place. The scheme alternatives are known as;

• Do Minimum (DM): The current road layout without Broughton Bypass or associated highways modifications, but including M6 Junction 32 Northbound Widening and M55 Junction 1 Improvements. All future housing and employment developments sites are included. • Do Something (DS): As the Do Minimum scenario but including Broughton Bypass and associated highways modifications.

More details on both the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios can be found in Section 3.2 and Section 3.3 respectively.

The model represents the peak hour of both the morning and evening time periods. Traffic survey data undertaken in November 2012 was analysed in order to determine the peak hour for each of the time periods.

The peak hours were found to be: • Morning peak (AM) – 07:45-08:45; and • Evening peak (PM) – 16:45-17:45.

Each of the forecast years and scheme alternatives have been modelled to replicate traffic for both time periods.

The forecast scenario will therefore consist of eight models, summarised in Figure 2-1 below;

Figure 2-1 - Modelled components for forecast scenarios.

These forecast scenarios are based on a series of assumptions regarding the inclusion of the future developments within the detailed model area and the scaling of developments outside the detailed area for the forecast years.

Such developments are subject to external factors such as allocation of land uses, progress of development strategy and economic uncertainty, and therefore could have reached various stages of completion at the time of the forecast years.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 6

Map showing the locations of both the highway and housing and employment development proposals can be found in Appendix A.

2.3 Data Sources

Future developments were identified through the review of Preston City Council, South Ribble Borough Council and Wyre Borough Council’s Local Plans. Details including location and size of the planned development or scheme, as well as an indication of when construction is likely to commence, were collected to assist in the estimation of trip generation and network structure.

Future highways schemes were identified through consultations with LCC and the Highways Agency (HA).

In addition, the following transport specific plans have been reviewed:

• Lancashire County Council Local Transport Plan 2011-2021 – A Strategy for Lancashire (2011); • Central Lancashire Highways & Transport Masterplan (2013); and • Environment Directorate 2013/14 Commissioning Plan for Preston (2013).

Trip rates developed for the Central Lancashire Traffic Model (CLTM) were used to calculate the level of trip demand to each housing and employment site. More details can be found in the CLTM Forecasting Report.

Background traffic was growthed using TEMPRO factors, in line with latest guidance.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 7

3 Network Development

3.1 Overview

This section describes the scenarios for which the traffic forecasts have been developed. These are based upon assumptions for development traffic and background traffic growth and lead to the derivation of forecast matrices for two assessment years.

The future years identified in Section 2.2 have been selected as 2017 and 2032, corresponding to the agreed opening and design years of the scheme.

As well as the bypass, two other highway schemes are scheduled for completion during those future years and also need to be included within all forecast models. These are: • M55 J1 Junction Improvement

The M55 Junction 1 / A6 scheme aims to improve the roundabout’s performance by introducing full signal control which will increase capacity and assist turning movements which previously added to delay at the junction. • M6 J32 Northbound Widening This scheme aims to reduce congestion on the northbound approach to Junction 32, which can be particularly severe at weekends and bank holidays and to improve safety. The scheme will widen the northbound M6 on the approach to the junction from 4 lanes to 5 lanes and within the junction from 2 lanes to 3 lanes. Two discontinuities of the hardshoulder will be formed. The junction format of the merge from the eastbound M55 would be altered from a lane gain to a standard slip road type merge layout.

3.2 Do Minimum Network

The Do Minimum network consists of the current highway network from the Base year traffic model, including current node and link coding, with associated capacity and speed flow curve information but with the inclusion of the two schemes mentioned in the previous section. Further details on the base models attributes can be found in the LMVR.

The completed Do Minimum networks for each forecast year could then be taken forward to use as the basis for the Do Something network.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 8

3.3 Do Something Network

To produce the Do Something Network a number of changes were made to the Do Minimum model network to include the Broughton Bypass, these are detailed below. • The additions of the bypass and associated roundabouts which tie-in with the A6 north of Broughton , Whittingham Lane, D’Urton Lane and A6 / M55 Junction 1 and; • The realignment along D’Urton Lane and its closure at the eastern end; • Priority and timing adjustments to the traffic signals at Broughton crossroads; and • A reduction in the speed limit from 40mph to 30mph on the A6 between the bypass extents.

The bypass is to be constructed on the east side of Broughton village. From north to south it can be considered to have three sections:

• From A6 Garstang Road north of Broughton to Whittingham Lane; • From Whittingham Lane to D’Urton Lane; and • From D’Urton Lane to A6 Garstang Road just north of M55 Junction 1.

The bypass is modelled as a suburban single carriageway with a speed limit of 40mph. The sections between Whittingham Lane and D’Urton Lane, and D’Urton Lane and A6 Garstang Road have two lanes in each direction.

Roundabout junctions are provided along the bypass with the exception of the southern tie in which is a left in left out priority junction. The roundabouts are modelled with default Arcady geometric parameters as there were no detailed design drawings of these junctions at the time of model development.

The alignment of the proposed bypass is detailed in Figure 3-1 overleaf.

D’Urton Lane has been realigned at its western end to tie in with the bypass. D’Urton Lane is also closed to vehicular traffic close to the junction with the section of D’Urton Lane that leads to Haighton Green Lane. A link is provided from D’Urton Lane to Eastway through the proposed development site. This link is only available for use in the 2032 models. This is shown in Figure 3-1 overleaf.

To cater for local needs the signal timings and phasing at at Broughton crossroads has been altered from a north-south A6 priority in the Do Minimum scenario to an east-west priority within the Do Something scenario.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 9

Figure 3-1 - Proposed Bypass Alignment

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 10

4 Development Traffic

4.1 Development Overview

The forecasting of trip demand within the study area needs to consider both the impacts of local and national trends in travel demand from the present year of the model to the forecast opening and design years. The current Department for Transport (DfT) Guidance in WebTAG Unit 3.1 – Modelling, recommends the use of two data sources for the development of forecast growth factors as follows:

• National Trip End Model (NTEM) as currently encapsulated in the software package TEMPRO (Using Dataset 6.2) for the derivation of traffic growth factors for cars trips; and • National Transport Model (NTM), which is applicable for the derivation of traffic growth factors relating to light goods vehicles (LGV), and other goods vehicles classes 1 and 2 grouped together as heavy goods vehicles (HGV).

The guidance indicates that, where a significant development is adjacent to the scheme or will generate traffic using roads impacted by the scheme, then the trip demand and travel patterns relating to the development should be incorporated into the model. Additionally the growth factors from TEMPRO and NTM need to be adjusted to take account of these developments.

Therefore to avoid double counting trips where we have identified developments within a particular zone development trips have been removed from the TEMPRO factors and only fuel and income growth have been applied to that zone.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 11

4.2 Development Sites

Consultations with LCC directed us to Preston City Council, South Ribble Borough Council and Wyre Borough Council’s Local Plans. A review of these reports allowed us to identify a number of housing and employment development opportunities within the study area. These developments are located on the A6 north of Broughton, south of the M55 J1 and east of M6 and include the following developments summarised in Table 4-1 to Table 4-4 below: Table 4-1 - Preston Housing Sites

Site Area Total Ref Name 2017 2032 (Ha) Dwellings 06/2006/0651 Former Sharoe Green Hospital 7.13 102 64 102 06/2011/0630 Land north of Lightfoot Lane 2.65 70 70 70 06/2011/0416 Former Whittingham Hospital 54.59 650 266 650 Hudson & Walling Site, Whittingham Lane, 06/2002/0919 2.3 61 12 61 Broughton HS1.1 Cottam (Hall & Former Brickworks) 69.85 1300 503 1300 HS1.3 Land at Boyce's Farm & Eastway 56 450 330 450 Land Bounded by Garstang road / Eastway / HS1.4 26 300 180 300 Sandyforth Ln / M55

Land Bounded by Sandyforth Ln / Lightfoot Ln HS1.5 99.5 1400 530 1400 / Sandy Ln / M55 HS1.6 Land West of Sandy Lane 64.5 750 0 750 HS1.26 Land off Whittingham Rd, Longridge 18.93 280 20 280

Table 4-2 - Preston Employment Sites

Site Area Ref Name 2017 2032 (Ha) EP1.1 Former Whittingham Hospital 1.40 0.14 1.40 EP1.2 Red Scar - Site H 2.75 0.28 2.75 EP1.4 Red Scar Industrial Estate 21.31 2.13 21.31 EP1.3 Preston East Employment Area 34.89 3.49 34.89 EP1.5 Millennium City Park 3.50 0.35 3.50 EP1.6 Site at Jnt 31A M6 West loop 3.84 0.38 3.84 EP1.7 Land North of Eastway 1.96 0.2 1.96 EP1.10 Preston East Jnt 31A M6 25.50 2.55 25.50 EP1.11 Roman Road Farm 24.94 2.49 24.94

Table 4-3 - Wyre Housing Sites

Site Area Total Ref Name 2017 2032 (Ha) Dwellings 1 Land to the West of A6 10.8 325 81 325 4 Catterall 2.24 70 18 70 10 Catterrall Gates Lane South 2.165 45 11 45 13 Beechouse Fieldsm Garstang, Claughton 6.4 200 50 200

Table 4-4 - Wyre Employment Sites

Site Area Ref Name 2017 2032 (Ha) 1 Land to the West of A6 5.40 1.35 5.40 10 Catterrall Gates Lane South 5.77 1.44 5.77 12 Brockholes Way Entension 11.01 2.75 11.01

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 12

The scale of these developments is summarised in Table 4-1 to Table 4-4 above and their locations are shown in Appendix A.

4.3 Development Phasing

The Preston and Wyre Local Plans contain details on when both housing and employment developments are due for completion. Accordingly; the impact of the forecast traffic has been phased over the two assessment years.

Therefore only developments to be completed before 2017 have been included in the opening year (2017) assessment. It is assumed that all developments will be completed by 2029 (Duration of Preston and Wyre Local Plans) and as such all developments have been included in the design year (2032) assessments.

4.4 Development Trip Generation

As detailed in Section 2.3 trip rates that were developed for the Central Lancashire Traffic Model were used to calculate the level of trip demand to each housing and employment site. These trip rates are summarised in Table 4-5 below.

Table 4-5 - Trip Rates

AM PM Development Type In Out In Out Housing 0.16 0.43 0.39 0.24 (Trips per dwelling) B1 Employment 31.06 3.63 4.01 26.48 (Trips per hectares site area) B2 & B8 13.43 5.18 4.72 11.62 (Trips per hectares site area)

The resulting trips for each time period and site are summarised in Table 4-6 for housing and employment developments.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 13

Table 4-6 - Housing and Employment Development Site Trips

2017 AM 2017 PM 2032 AM 2032 PM In Out In Out In Out In Out Development Site Preston Housing Sites Former Sharoe Green Hospital 10 28 25 15 16 44 40 25 Land north of Lightfoot Lane 11 30 27 17 11 30 27 17 Former Whittingham Hospital 43 114 104 64 104 280 254 156 Hudson & Walling Site, Whittingham Lane, 2 5 5 3 10 26 24 15 Broughton Cottam (Hall & Former Brickworks) 81 216 196 121 208 559 507 312 Land at Boyce's Farm & Eastway 53 142 129 79 72 194 176 108 Land Bounded by Garstang road / Eastway / 29 77 70 43 48 129 117 72 Sandyforth Ln / M55 Land Bounded by Sandyforth Ln / Lightfoot Ln 85 228 207 127 224 602 546 336 / Sandy Ln / M55 Land West of Sandy Lane 0 0 0 0 120 323 293 180 Land off Whittingham Rd, Longridge 3 9 8 5 45 120 109 67 Preston Employment Sites Former Whittingham Hospital 4 1 1 4 44 5 6 37 Red Scar - Site H 4 2 1 3 37 14 13 32 Red Scar Industrial Estate 29 11 10 25 286 110 101 248 Preston East Employment Area 47 18 17 41 469 181 165 405 Millennium City Park 5 2 2 4 47 18 17 41 Site at Jnt 31A M6 West loop 12 1 2 10 119 14 15 102 Land North of Eastway 6 1 1 5 61 7 8 52 Preston East Jnt 31A M6 34 13 12 30 343 132 120 296 Roman Road Farm 33 13 12 29 335 129 118 290 Wyre Housing Sites Land to the West of A6 13 35 32 19 52 140 127 78 Catterall 3 8 7 4 11 30 27 17 Catterrall Gates Lane South 2 5 4 3 7 19 18 11 Beechouse Fieldsm Garstang, Claughton 8 22 20 12 32 86 78 48 Wyre Employment Sites Land to the West of A6 26 6 6 22 103 25 24 89 Catterrall Gates Lane South 28 7 6 24 110 27 26 95 Brockholes Way Entension 53 13 12 45 210 51 49 181

4.5 Development Trip Distribution

Each development site has been assigned a new model zone in a position which closely matches the location of where the site is due to be built. In addition, each development has had its generated traffic distributed across the model using the distribution of traffic to and from existing comparative parent zones. A parent zone was selected for each site which had similar land use and was located close to the site. The development trips were allocated to a user class in the same ratio as the parent zone and then distributed with the same user class distribution.

Plots showing the distribution of traffic to and from the four groups of developments shown within Table 4-6 are shown in Appendix B. As the distribution of trips is the same between the two forecast years, only plots for 2032 were produced.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 14

5 Background Traffic Growth

5.1 Outline

TEMPRO growth factors have been used to convert the 2012 base year AM and PM Peak car matrices to future year estimates, whilst NTM derived growth factors have been used for LGV and HGV matrices.

5.2 TEMPRO Factors

The trip ends within the traffic model are determined by the origin and destination zones. These zones are representative of the following TEMPRO areas:

Table 5-1 - TEMPRO areas modelled

Regions Counties Authorities NTEM Zone North East

Yorkshire and Humber North West → Cumbria Greater Manchester Merseyside Blackburn with

Lancashire → Darwen Blackpool Burnley Chorley Fylde Hyndburn Lancaster Pendle

Ribble Valley Rossendale South Ribble West Lancashire Preston → Rural (Preston) Preston (main)

Longridge (part of)

TEMPRO origin and destination factors for the above have been extracted and applied to relevant zones within the car matrix for each assessment year and time period for all zones without allocated development sites.

Each TEMPRO growth factor has been adjusted for fuel cost and income effects using the factors contained in Table 5A in the TEMPRO Guidance Note (April 2009). The fuel and income adjusted TEMPRO factors represent a realistic or medium growth scenario.

Guidance in WebTAG 3.15.2 states that fuel and income adjustment factors should be applied to the TEMPRO base growth matrices at a global level or highway only models. The fuel and income adjustment factors are as follows:

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 15

• 2012 to 2017 = 2.1% and • 2012 to 2032 = 8%.

These factors are applied to the TEMPRO element of the car growth.

5.3 NTM Growth

The DfT’s NTM growth factors have been used to estimate traffic growth for LGVs, and HGVs. The NTM growth factors are published on the DfT web portal and relate to the factors published in 2011. This data is split into regions with the North West Region factors being used. A summary of the NTM growth factors from 2017 to 2032 are shown in Table 5-2 below.

Table 5-2 - NTM based Growth Factors and Vehicle Trip Totals

Growth Horizon LGV OGV1 OGV2 Combined OGV1&2 (HGV) Growth Factors 2012 to 2017 15.7% 7.1% 18.5% 12.4% Growth Factors 2012 to 2032 67.8% 19.1% 37% 27.8%

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 16

6 Development and Background Traffic Growth Combined

The previous two sections set out the methodology used to produce the development, background and goods vehicle growth to trips over the base model matrices.

Growth was developed from a number of components and data sources, including:

• Detailed information on significant developments - Trip distribution was determined by using a parent zone; • TEMPRO Version 6.2 datasets – Provided growth factors for all car traffic outside identified development zones. To avoids double counting development trips zones only have fuel and income growth applied; • Fuel and income factors – Used to adjust the above TEMPRO factors to take into account national background growth; and • NTM - Provided growth factors for LGV and HGV trips.

Completing the steps summarised above results in three sets of growth factors:

• Car development zones - fuel and income only; • Car all non-development zones - TEMPRO and fuel and income; and • LGV and HGV - NTM.

LGV’s and HGV’s have the NTM factors applied to all zones within their matrices but the Car matrices have a combination of TEMPRO and fuel and income factors applied only to relevant zones.

Firstly all non-development zones were divided into two groups, ‘internal’ and ‘external’. Internal consisting of all trips that have an origin or destination in Preston or Wyre TEMPRO zones and external consisting of everything else.

TEMPRO growth in Preston and Wyre was calculated to be less by the design year 2032 (see below Table 6-1 for details) than that of the developments, so TEMPRO was not applied to any of the internal zones. Instead only a fuel and income factor was applied with the development trips accounting for the background growth in traffic. TEMPRO factors adjusted for fuel and income was applied to the external zones as normal. The procedure is in line with guidance set out in WebTAG 3.15.2, Example 1. A visual representation is shown the Figure 6-1 overleaf.

Table 6-1 - TEMPRO and Development Site Growth Comparison

Growth 2012-17 Growth 2012-32 Growth Due to TEMPRO AM PM AM PM Preston and Wyre 1686 1865 4842 5483 Growth due to Developments AM PM AM PM Preston and Wyre 1626 1667 6419 6309 Traffic Growth over TEMPRO -60 -198 1577 826

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 17

Figure 6-1 - Visual Representation of Matrix Factoring

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 18

7 Future Year Assignment

7.1 Assignment

The generalised cost parameters affect route choice through the network; these parameters were updated for all future year scenarios from those used in the base model. A summary of these parameters can be found in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 below. The parameters were updated to ensure that routeing choices best reflect those in the forecast years. Details on how generalized cost parameters are calculated can be found in the LMVR.

Table 7-1 - Calculated generalized cost parameters for 2017

AM Period PM Period VOT VOC VOT VOC User Class (pence/min) (pence/km) (pence/min) (pence/km) Average Car 23.92 10.92 24.36 9.41 UC1 Commuting 13.32 8.99 13.21 7.68 UC2 Employer’s Business 71.52 19.61 69.88 16.40 UC3 Other 16.83 8.99 17.47 7.68 UC4 LGV 27.07 21.14 27.07 18.76 UC5 HGV 23.92 73.32 23.92 59.80

Table 7-2 - Calculated generalized cost parameters for 2032

AM Period PM Period VOT VOC VOT VOC User Class (pence/min) (pence/km) (pence/min) (pence/km) Average Car 29.83 8.46 30.06 7.32 UC1 Commuting 16.31 6.57 16.19 5.62 UC2 Employer’s Business 92.64 17.00 90.64 14.16 UC3 Other 20.08 6.57 20.80 5.62 UC4 LGV 35.26 19.16 35.26 17.09 UC5 HGV 31.28 77.77 31.28 63.48

7.2 Convergence

Convergence is the measurement of stability in the model, whereby trip distributions do not alter substantially between runs and the model is in equilibrium. Convergence is measured in terms of the stability of the model outcomes between iterations and the proximity to the assignment objective. The convergence criteria were taken from Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) Volume 12, Section 2, Part 1, Appendix H.

A model assignment is considered acceptable when: • Duality Gap less than 1%; and • Absolute Deviation less than 1 veh/hr; or

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 19

• Relative Deviation less than 1%; or • %Flow (changing less than 5%) > 95%.

The Duality Gap is a proximity indicator. It expresses the flow weighted difference between current total costs on the network and the costs if all traffic used the minimum cost routes (as calculated by the next all or nothing assignment).

The Absolute Deviation is a stability indicator which is the absolute difference in link flows.

The Relative Deviation is a stability indicator which is the relative absolute difference in link flows.

The %Flow is a stability indicator which is the proportion of links in the overall network where flows have changed by less than 5% from the previous iteration.

In each assignment the required level of convergence was achieved.

7.3 Production of 12-Hour Flows

In order to calculate Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) and Annual Average Weekly Traffic (AAWT) flows which will subsequently be used in the assessment of Air, Noise, Water Quality and other environmental indices it is necessary to firstly calculate the 12 hour flows.

To calculate 12-hour traffic flows both the AM and PM peak hour flows are multiplied by a road type specific factor to produce an AM and PM 3 hr period flow. (AM = 07:00-10:00, PM = 16:00-19:00). By summing and multiplying the AM and PM peak hour flows by another set factors an Inter-Peak (IP) period 6 hr flow (10:00-16:00) can be calculated. These three calculated flows can then summed to produce a 12- hour flow. The factors used to calculate the three time periods were derived using Temporary and permanent ATC and TRADS count data. Factors used for the calculations are detailed in Table 7-3 below.

Table 7-3 - Factors to Convert AM and PM to 12-Hour

AM Peak to AM+PM Av to PM Peak to AM+PM Av to Road Type Period IP Period Period OP Period Motorway 2.671 4.262 2.642 2.180 A Road 2.679 5.659 2.777 2.494 B Road 2.334 3.856 2.757 1.910 Minor Road 2.083 2.753 2.395 1.104 Local Street 1.503 1.836 2.195 0.765 TOTAL 2.598 4.433 2.678 2.166

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 20

7.4 Production of AADT and AAWT Flows

In order to calculate AADT and AAWT flows, 12 hour flows were firstly calculated as per the methodology in the previous section. Accurate local 12hr to AADT and AAWT factors were then calculated using TRADS and ATC data. These factors are detailed in Table 7-4 below.

Table 7-4 - Factors to Convert AM and PM to 12-Hour

AAWT18hr - AAWT24hr - Road Type AAWT 18hr AAWT 24hr AADT 24hr AADT24hr AADT24hr Motorway 1.182 1.228 1.161 0.982 0.946 A Road 1.195 1.224 1.195 1.000 0.976 B Road 1.187 1.214 1.117 0.941 0.920 Minor Road 1.143 1.153 1.015 0.889 0.881 Local Street 1.134 1.143 1.014 0.894 0.887 TOTAL 1.185 1.223 1.159 0.978 0.948

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 21

8 Model Outputs

8.1 Future Year Traffic Flows

The forecast modelling process results in assignments of highway trips on to both the Do Minimum and Do Something networks. These forecasts represent AM (0745- 0845) and PM (1645-1745) peak hours peak average hour flows. Forecast traffic flows for each of these periods for the DM and DS scenarios for 2017 and 2032 are presented in Appendix C for the detailed study area.

The Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) forecasts for 2017 and 2032 Scenarios are presented in Appendix D.

The largest changes in traffic flows following the construction of the proposed bypass will be found at Broughton crossroads, as traffic travelling north to south and south to north that formerly used the crossroads will use the proposed bypass in the future.

Forecast AM and PM peak traffic flows from the Broughton transport model are given in Table 8-1 to Table 8-4 to show the impact on traffic flows at Broughton crossroads in 2017 and 2032, with and without the proposed bypass in place.

Proposed Route Alignment A6 Garstang Road (N)

Woodplumpton Lane

Whittingham Lane

A6 Garstang Road (S)

Figure 8-1 - Broughton Crossroads Selected Links

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 22

Table 8-1 - A6 Garstang Road (North), 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows A6 Garstang Road (North) Scenario Vehicles Northbound Southbound AM PM AM PM Total 399 504 664 695 2017 DM HGV% 4% 3% 3% 0%

Total 70 121 224 71 2017 DS HGV% 29% 14% 1% 0% Total Vehicle % -82% -76% -66% -90% Change Total 355 416 752 748 2032 DM HGV% 5% 4% 2% 0%

Total 39 71 234 67 2032 DS HGV% 23% 11% 1% 0%

Total Vehicle % -89% -83% -69% -91% Change

Table 8-1 indicates that with the proposed bypass in place in 2017, flows in both directions on the A6 Garstang Road north of Broughton crossroads will reduce as traffic will transfer to the bypass. In 2032 flows are predicted to reduce further at this location. The HGV percentages in the northbound direction in 2017 and 2032 with the bypass in place are relatively high due to the fact the overall flow is much lower.

Table 8-2 - B5269 Whittingham Lane, 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows B5269 Whittingham Lane Scenario Vehicles Eastbound Westbound AM PM AM PM Total 309 339 614 417 2017 DM HGV% 7% 2% 2% 3%

Total 269 304 153 246 2017 DS HGV% 3% 3% 3% 1%

Total Vehicle % Change -13% -10% -75% -41%

Total 495 561 800 631 2032 DM HGV% 5% 1% 2% 2%

Total 375 403 335 398 2032 DS HGV% 3% 2% 1% 1%

Total Vehicle % Change -24% -28% -58% -37%

Table 8-2 indicates that with the proposed bypass in place in 2017, flows in both directions on Whittingham Lane east of Broughton Crossroads are predicted to

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 23

reduce significantly in the westbound direction and by a small amount eastbound. Eastbound flows do not decrease as much as westbound flows as Whittingham Lane now facilitates the movement of vehicles from west of Broughton to the south via the bypass. The reverse movement does not use the bypass and therefore not Whittingham Lane, so westbound flow reductions are greater than eastbound.

Table 8-3 - A6 Garstang Road (South), 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows A6 Garstang Road (South) Scenario Vehicles Northbound Southbound AM PM AM PM Total 541 760 1122 988 2017 DM HGV% 5% 2% 2% 1%

Total 192 252 169 30 2017 DS HGV% 12% 6% 2% 0% Total Vehicle % -65% -67% -85% -97% Change

Total 579 771 1246 1070 2032 DM HGV% 6% 2% 3% 1%

Total 240 279 270 121 2032 DS HGV% 6% 3% 1% 2%

Total Vehicle % -59% -64% -78% -89% Change

Table 8-3 indicates that with the proposed bypass in place in 2017, flows in both directions on the A6 Garstang Road south of Broughton crossroads will reduce significantly. The northbound flow does not reduce as much as the southbound flow as it still carries the south to west of Broughton via Woodplumpton Lane movement as described above. In 2032 flows are predicted to reduce slightly less than in 2017 at this location.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 24

Table 8-4 - B5269 Woodplumpton Lane, 2017 and 2032 Forecast Flows B5269 Woodplumpton Lane Scenario Vehicles Eastbound Westbound AM PM AM PM Total 275 307 264 348 2017 DM HGV% 5% 3% 3% 2%

Total 323 404 384 518 2017 DS HGV% 3% 3% 2% 1% Total Vehicle % 17% 32% 45% 49% Change

Total 389 407 424 509 2032 DM HGV% 4% 2% 2% 1%

Total 493 548 618 695 2032 DS HGV% 3% 2% 2% 1%

Total Vehicle % 27% 35% 46% 37% Change

Table 8-4 indicates that with the proposed bypass in place in 2017 and 2032, flows in both directions on Woodplumpton Lane west of Broughton Crossroads are predicted to increase by 35% on average in both directions. This is due to the bypass reducing congestion and therefore journey times, making the route to / from the south via Broughton more attractive.

This transfer of traffic due to the bypass can be seen in the difference plots contained within Appendix E.

8.2 Forecast Network Performance

The forecast model assignments for each time period AM and PM peak have been analysed to summarise the total vehicle hours and total vehicle kilometres in the model using the network in the opening and design years. This summary is shown in Table 8-5.

The analysis shows that the scheme provides overall travel time savings in both time periods with the highest hour savings in the PM peak with savings in the AM peak being a little smaller. This is due to the scheme having lower levels of congestion. The scheme increases vehicle kilometres on the network as the scheme provides a longer yet quicker route around Broughton.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 25

Table 8-5 - Model Statistics Total Vehicle Dist Total Vehicle Time Scenario (km) (hr) Do Something 2017 AM 11,030,918 1,085,713 Do Something 2017 PM 12,875,520 1,692,807 Do Something 2032 AM 12,765,635 1,630,407 Do Something 2032 PM 14,888,841 2,572,760 Do Minimum 2017 AM 11,027,035 1,086,000 Do Minimum 2017 PM 12,873,376 1,693,772 Do Minimum 2032 AM 12,755,548 1,630,923 Do Minimum 2032 PM 14,883,656 2,573,203 Difference Diff 2017 AM (DS - DM) 3,883 -286 Diff 2017 PM (DS - DM) 2,144 -964 Diff 2032 AM (DS - DM) 10,087 -516 Diff 2032 PM (DS - DM) 5,186 -443

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 26

9 Summary

This report has been prepared to outline the methods and assumptions used in preparing the future year traffic forecasts and to demonstrate that the results from the Broughton Bypass VISUM traffic model, obtained from assigning future year matrices to the Do Minimum and Do Something networks are logical and to expectation.

The Broughton Bypass Model traffic forecasts have been developed from a calibrated and validated base year 2012 traffic model. The process used in developing the forecast traffic used to assess the proposed Broughton Bypass scheme have been based on current guidance encapsulated in WebTAG and DMRB.

Forecast travel demand has been based on factoring the base year trip matrices to represent the opening (2017) and design year (2032) projected demand. These forecasts used a combination of Department for Transport growth factors as encapsulated in the National Trip End Model (NTEM) as implemented in the TEMPRO and the National Traffic Model (NTM) road traffic forecast. Travel demand associated with development proposals, most notably in land adjacent and within the detailed model area has been incorporated into the forecasts. The development projections have also been used to adjust the TEMPRO growth in line with current WebTAG processes.

The Do Minimum network is based on the current base model road layout without Broughton Bypass or associated highways modifications, but includes two Highways Agency Pinch Point Schemes; M6 Junction 32 Northbound Widening and M55 Junction 1 Improvements. All future housing and employment developments sites are included. The Do Something network is based on the Do Minimum scenario but includes Broughton Bypass and associated highways modifications.

Forecast travel demand was then assigned to both the Do Minimum and Do Something networks to give future traffic levels on the network. The Do Something forecast assignments show that the Broughton Bypass reduces travel times compared to the Do Minimum levels. Traffic flow north and south on the A6 through Broughton is reduced by over 60% due to the bypass. Flows on Woodplumpton Lane increase slightly as the bypass has removed congestion from Broughton crossroads and made this a more attractive route to and from the south.

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 27

Appendix A – Housing and Employment Development Sites

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report â

HS1.26

EP1.1 06/2011/0416 06/2002/0919

HS1.3

EP1.7

HS1.4 06/2011/0630 HS1.5 HS1.4 EP1.10 HS1.5 EP1.3

HS1.6 EP1.6 EP1.3 EP1.11 EP1.5

EP1.5

HS1.1 EP1.4 EP1.4 06/2006/0651 HS1.1 EP1.2

Client Legend

Housing Developments (Extant 50+ Dwellings)

Project Housing Developments (NSA 50+ Dwellings) B1859900 - Broughton Bypass Employment Developments + Drawing Title Earl Grey House, 77-85 Grey Street, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 6EF Tel: +44 (0)191 255 7800 Selected Housing & Employment Developments www.jacobs.com © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 (Preston) Ordnance Survey 100023320 Drawing Status FIRST ISSUE

Scale @A3 NOT TO SCALE DO NOT SCALE Jacobs No. B1859900 Client No. Rev. Date Purpose of Revision Drawn Check'dRev'd Appr'd Drawing No. This drawing is not to be used in whole in or part other than for the intended purpose B1859900/DEV/PRE/001 0 13/03/13 Preliminary PF CW CEW SB and project as defined on this drawing. Refer to the contract for full terms and conditions. â

Legend Client

Housing Developments Project Employment Developments B1859900 - Broughton Bypass

+ Drawing Title Earl Grey House, 77-85 Grey Street, Mixed-Use Developments Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 6EF Tel: +44 (0)191 255 7800 Selected Housing & Employment Developments www.jacobs.com © Crown copyright and database rights 2012 (Wyre: Garstang & Catterrall) Ordnance Survey 100023320 Drawing Status FIRST ISSUE

Scale @A3 NOT TO SCALE DO NOT SCALE Jacobs No. B1859900 Client No. Rev. Date Purpose of Revision Drawn Check'dRev'd Appr'd Drawing No. This drawing is not to be used in whole in or part other than for the intended purpose B1859900/DEV/GAR/001 0 13/03/13 Preliminary PF CW CEW SB and project as defined on this drawing. Refer to the contract for full terms and conditions.

Appendix B – Distribution Plots

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DM All Broughton Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DM All Garstang Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DM Employment Preston Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DM Housing Preston Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DM All Broughton Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DM All Garstang Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DM Employment Preston Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DM Housing Preston Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DS All Broughton Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DS All Garstang Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DS Employment Preston Distribution Plot 2032 PM –DS Housing Preston Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DS All Broughton Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DS All Garstang Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DS Employment Preston Distribution Plot 2032 AM –DS Housing Preston

Appendix C – Peak Hour Flow Plots

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 7 68 8

5 7 5 8

5 4 6 5 5

7 5

1 8

3 8 1 1

1 5

3 2

4 4

0 1 1

3 4

3 1

8 1

8 1 1 1 56

4 1

7 5

Lancashire Council County

4 9 3

3 2

8 1

6 0 2 1 19 25

208

2 0

6 8

6 2

9 4 5

303 4

0 4 8 1 8 2

1 4

4 5

8 4 6 2 0 3 1 7

6 6

0 4

3 1

0 5

6 7

5 4

4 7 6

1 1

3 3

0 0 6 4

9 1 0

4 7 2 7 1

4 3

3 4 6 564 9 9

3 0

1 3

8 1

559 133 1849

9 1

7 5

1 8 0

3 956 8

3 0

3 6

4 9

9 3

9 95

1 3

5 1

1 2

2 5

1285

2 2

3 1 1 4

7 0

1 9

1 0

8 4

7 8 3

8 6

6 3 4

5 5 6

1 4

5 1

1 1

4 3 2

5 62 7

4 4

6 1 1

1 5 4

1 8 22 1 30 6 11 4

9 0

12 4

11 6

6 32

0 22 5 3 1 1 2 3 2 5 2

4 541 6

64 2 6 7

9 2

1 1

3 1 1

4 2

6 5

6 1

99 6

3 0

4 2

4 0 7

6 6

7 6 2

9 2

9 4

3 9

2 2

197 2 7 6 19 4 9 165 9 3 165

9 1

7 1 7 1

3 7

7 3 5 8 0 1 95 462 134 462 399 201

3 2 4

16 4

6 7

9 4

490

6 9

3 1

5 5

7 6 5 2

8 6

1 1

0 3 2 1 5

1 5

8 6

2 1

3 3

6 2

8 6

1 1

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Minimum 2017 Do Peak Morning - /003 B1859900/FLOW

1 1

6 2

8 6

1 1

7 1 33 9

1 3

6 2

18 9 1

6 1

1 9 3 3 3

1 244 6 351

6 2

8 3 1 260

5 1 6 2

29 3 9 44

1 42

5 5

2 6

5 6

3 32

6 7

3 5

63 4 9 365

2 7 2 5

4 4

6 5 27 4

457 326

429

3 5 9 6

1 3

5 5 4

9 70

1 9 9 4

9 Flow 4

3 49 49 9

3 39 39

9 3

9 1 Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance Morning Peak (0745-0845) Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic (0745-0845) Peak Morning Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 13.06.2013 on: Created App:CEW Rev:MR Check:MR Orig:CEW 65 1 8

1 6

6 1 2 6 9

5 5

3 6

1 8 2 6

24 5

3 3

2 5 3

2 4

8 3

3 1

1 9 6

8 2 6 57 99

20 2

6 5

Lancashire Council County

9 3 3

1 2

8 2

7 7 8 03 25

370 8

6 9

3 0

1 7

8 3

4 5

345 3

4 2 8 1 4 2

4 3

2 8

8 8 6 2 0 4 3 2

7 1

7 2

8 3

3 3

8 8

6 8

4 8

3 2

2 3 0

3 3

8 5

2 9

5 8

3 8 2 2 2

8 3

3 3 6 1 2 1

3 3

1 0

1 2

773 208 36 9 9 2

7 5

3 0

3 3

3 911 5

9 4

8 4

3 9

0 3 3

2 5

2 79 2 7

4 1 2 3

7 97

1272

9 3

1 5

5 7 6

0 3

0 2

1 3

0 5 3

2 6

8 6

1 5 8

7 6

3 0

3 1 3 0 8

81 4

1 7

6 2

0 2

9 5

1 4

1 7

10 7 11 8 10 4

6 5

99 8 9 5

9 4 65

3 88 7 3 9 6 4

5 1

8 60 4 7

95 3 6 0

4 3

5 6

9 8

6 2

04 5

5 4

5 8 4

9 2 1

6 8

1 2

4 1

0 1

5 7

7 1

158 6 9 158 6 3 214

9 214 4 7

5 6

0 1 9

2 4 1

0 2 4 1 6 1 696 192 79 696 493 109

493 2 7

31 5

0 7 9

1 3

662

0 3 4 1

4 1

1 2

6 0 8

2 3

9 3

1 1

6 2

3 1

4 1

1 2

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Peak Minimum 2017 Do Evening - /004 B1859900/FLOW

2 2

3 1

4 1

1 2

0 3 8 46 2

0 3

23 8

1 1

2 6 4 1

95 0 205

0 6

3 1 2 96

6 5 6 35

32 1 1 3

9 30

0 6 3 6

4 0 6

1 16

6 6

2 1

9 4

1 6 1

1 6 0 2

4 3

31 4 4 6

42 160

301

0 6

8 6 2 1

2 9 4 1 2 0 1

0 5

2 1

5 Flow 1 4

1 15 15 4

3 1 134

8 0

0 8

2 Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance Evening Peak (1645-1745) Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic (1645-1745) Peak Evening Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 13.06.2013 on: Created App:CEW Rev:MR Check:MR Orig:CEW 8 68 0

6 8

2 6

0 6 3 6

7 5 5

2 6 8

8 4

3 2

9 2 4

9 7

27 3

0 1

3 1

8 6 9 8 54

1 1

0 7

Lancashire Council County

7 3 0

3 5

8 6

9 6 1 1 03 25

219

5 4

3 9

7 6 9

315 6

9 8

1 2 7 5

5 3 6

8 5

2 4 6 5 0 5 1 7

5 1

3 2

3 5

6 3

9 4

7 7 3 7 1

2 2 5

3 0 4 0

0 1 6

9 4

7 8 2 7 7

2 5

0 8

8 66

5 4 6 4 9 9

7 4

1 3 9

4 1 9 1 6 522 191

0 9 1804

0 0

5 3 4

3 1

5 1 0

9 8

9 24

5 9

74 7

8 7 27

1 9

9 41

0 3 2 1 2

2 5 5

2 99 8

1 68

7 12

9 9

3 0

9 3

5 5

9 4

2 1

0 5

2 9

9 9

8 7

1 4

3 3

1 5 6 18

5 0

26 0

7 5

5 5

8 0 3

1 6

4 5

1 8

2 65 1 3 2 1 18 7 8 19 9

5 2 0

4 9 4

3 1 7

16 4

9 3 1 18

6 9 2 16 9 0 6 5 2

4 192 8

4 3 22 2

70 3

8 1

7 1

24 9

2 4

0 7 5

7 8

5 9

23 6

8 1 2 8

4 62 9

6 2

236 0 6 2 23 6 1 277 6 4 277

3 6

4 2 9 2

6 7

4 3 5 4 7 1 620 130 9 620 461 201

61 1

4 5 1

743 9 9 4

522

2 7

2 1

2 6

4 9 5 8

1 6

2 2

5 1 7 1 3

1 3

5 6

2 1

4 3

9 8

1 6

2 2

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Peak Morning Something 2017 Do - /005 B1859900/FLOW

1 1

9 8

1 6

2 2

0 5 2 8 10 1

1 0

6 5

15 0 1

7 1

1 2 0 1 1

204 5 319

6 9

5 2 1 247

94 4 43

1 3 1 3

1 33 8 9

1 4

9 5

3 29 9

4 9

3 5

55 3 1

349

2 9 3

3 3

9 5 7 3 25

359 295

331

8 9

1 4 1 3

9 5 3 5

2 61

8 0

1 3 5

1 6

5 Flow 6

3 65 65 9

3 39 39

2 0

8 3

1 1 Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance Morning Peak (0745-0845) Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic (0745-0845) Peak Morning Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 13.06.2013 on: Created App:CEW Rev:MR Check:MR Orig:CEW 71 1 3

3 9

2 4 3 2

5 6 6

1 8

1 5 2 9

34 1

3 4

3 4 3

1 4

7 3

1 1

1 1 6

6 8 3 2 2

03 10

3 2

2 5

Lancashire Council County

5 3 1

1 6

6 2

7 7 8 90 24

379 1

5 0

2 9

1 7

6 2

375 5

5 2

2 2

3 6

5 1

3 5

2 8

2 8 6 6 6 5 3 2

7 7

8 6

3 7

7 8

6 5

1 8

5 2

8 3 2 1

6 1

7 6

9 9

5 9

1 6

5 8 6 2

6 9

6 3 6 1 2 1

5 8

1 1 5

3 2 2 4 6 727 193

1 25 9 9 4 0

31 3 2

5 1

8 6

5 0

1 822

6 0

2 5

1 5 53

1 3 8

7 4

1 78 1

2 1

2 8 7

7 91 6

1 22

1 12 9

5 6

7 8

1 2

5 1

9 9

9 5

2 2 6

1 3

0 2

1 0

2 5

1 7

3 2 4

3 5 10

2 4

30 0

8 3

1 3

0 9 9

1 7

8 2 7

4 02 3 3 57 9 1 26 1

7 9 8

8 6 3

4 2 5

4 8

2 25 0 3 30 7 9

5 1

8 252 2 1

1 5 7 0

1 4

5 8

1 3

7 8

1 8

12 2

0 4

82 6

7 2 2

0 1

591 7

6 2

223 1 8 223 7 8 352 7

5 352

3 7

2 7

0 2 9

3 7 1

0 2 4 3 5 1 781 199 72 781 578 110

78 2 1

5 6 0

819 0

4 1

713

0 7 4 9

8 2

1 3

8 6 7

2 9

0 3

2 1

5 2

7 9

8 2

1 3

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Peak Evening Something 2017 Do - /006 B1859900/FLOW

2 1

7 9

8 2

1 3

6 6 3 44 5

5 6

18 7

2 1

5 4 4 2

80 2 155

5 1

8 1

1 81

9 7 52 3 3

2 1 5 2

7 20

3 9 2 3

3 2 9

1 11

6 3

5 1

9 3

3 9 5

1 6 0

3 2

6 5 2 3 48

356 112

205

0 9

3 3 1 1

5 0 3 1

6 10

0 8

1 0 6

3 3

6 Flow 3 0

1 36 36 0

6 1 160

6 8

0 0

1 3 Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance Evening Peak (1645-1745) Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic (1645-1745) Peak Evening Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 13.06.2013 on: Created App:CEW Rev:MR Check:MR Orig:CEW 64 7 3

9 4

1 6

1 4

3 7 8

8 6

5 8

4 0 2 2

5 7

3 2

0 7 5

1 7 9

6 5

6 2

8 1

0 5 9 2 0

62 8

1 1

Lancashire Council County 7

6 1 6

4 5

0 2

3 1 3 1 64 29

247

4 2

9 3

7 2 7

9 0

7 1

2 9 2

337 6

2 8

3 8 6 4

8 4

8 9

4 6 5 3 8

3 3

1 6

2 3

5 1

4 2

1 4

5 4

8 6 8

5 7

2 1 2 5

4 2 1 1

5 1

1 6

6 8 9 2 2

5 0

2 51

5 7 7 6

5 6

6 0

1 6

9 1

552 133 2012

8 9

6 4

7 0

0 3 5 93

6 36

3 9 6

1 7

2 3

2 34 4

5 6

1 2

2 5

1743

9 7

2 5

8 8

1 1 7

0 4

3 3 2

1 6

4 0

7 1 7

2 1

7 2

0 5 5

3 7

7 2

2 1

5 5 9

0 64 3

7 4

9 2 4

1 7 4

1 9 49 2 50 6 12 0

6 6

233 8 1 7

5 8 63

9 246 5 4 1 8

7 7

2 7

4 579 2

2 9

5 4 7 8

5 3

3 0

2 3

75 9 3

55 7

3 9

2 4 7

5 9 7

2 7 2

5 3

5 1

3 2

2 3

287 9 7 3 28 5 6 260 5 3 260

8 5

1 2 4 2

7 9

6 4 7 1 6 1 539 228 539 356 223

356 7 6

69 5

0 7 0

1 6

583

5 6

6 2

7 0 7 8

7 4

2 2

1 6 7 2 1

2 4

6 0

3 4

8 4

0 8

7 4

2 2

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Minimum 2032 Do Peak Morning - /007 B1859900/FLOW

2 2

0 8

7 4

2 2

9 2 1 48 4

2 7

31 2 1

4 1

2 4

8 1 4 7

2 347 1 504

2 7

1 7 4

3 36

8 0

570 5 673

652

4 8 2 0

5 5

9 1 8 6

5 47

8 0

5 9

75 6 2

3 508

9 5 9 6 6

9 8 9

7 6 4 9

69 471

652

4 8 0

1 5 1

9 9 2 6 1

5 165

4 4

1 8 4

1 4

4 Flow 4

5 44 44 4

5 54 54

5 4

4 8

8 1 1 2

6 0 9

8 7

7 3

2 1 3

8 3

3 4

1 0

5 4

7 6

2 6 7

1 0 7 3 0

40 13

6 2

8 9

Lancashire Council County

5 4 7

2 5

1 3

6 0 0 1 20 31

4 0

8 9

4 5

8 7 6

389 5

4 2

5 1 9 5

3 5

2 2 1

5 1 9 9

3 7

5 0

5 1

4 6

0 2

1 6

6 9 2 6 7

0 0

8 7

3 1 7

6 6

6 9 6 2

5 2

7 28

5 3 6 2

7 2

7 0

1 1

4 2

892 214 1189 1 4

5 9

5 2

7 8

5 3

5 125

0 3

1 2

2 19 5

7 1

9 2

2 8

1830

4 6

9 5

2 1

5 7 1

3 7 9

1 4

2 4

1 8

6 6

5 1

8 7

2 4 9

9 6

5 1

7 1

9 5 3

84 4

2 8

6 3

3 1 9

1 0 2

2 8 43 1 96 8 10

7 9

3 2 3

82 7 1

10 5

1 6 78

6 070 7 5 1 3 4

9 5

9 71

0 7

8 7

4 5 7 0

6 4

9 5

48 3 1

7 7

16 6

4 8

8 9 2

4 8

7 7

5 1

6 2

1 3

4 8

7 2

231 0 1 5 23 7 6 371

0 330 4 1

3 2

3 2 9

3 9 1

3 1 6 8 8 2 750 266 92 750 406 128

406 9 3

16 8

9 3 6

1 3

739

6 9

6 1

6 3

7 1

3 5 6 9

9 5

1 3

9 6 2 3 5

1 2

2 0

3 3

8 3

5 9

9 5

1 3

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Peak Minimum 2032 Do Evening - /008 B1859900/FLOW

1 3

5 9

9 5

1 3

0 4 8 6 19 5

1 2

9 0

5 5

3 2

5 1

5 8 9 1 1

254 8 467

9 1

5 4 3 257

4 1 4 7

42 4 44

412

07 4

4 4

5 8 4

4 41

4 3 4

86 5 2

2 444 3 1

5 4

3 6 2 5 55

563 418

412

4 4 4

2 4 1

6 4 5 5

1 120

4 6

1 4 9

2 3

9 Flow 3 4

1 39 39 4

6 1 164

1 6

4 4

1 2 Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance Evening Peak (1645-1745) Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic (1645-1745) Peak Evening Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 13.06.2013 on: Created App:CEW Rev:MR Check:MR Orig:CEW 71 7 4

1 1

4 7

7 5 4 4

9 6 8

3 4 2

4 8

4 2

2 6 5

1 0 0

6 5

0 2

4 1

0 9 4 84

61 8

8 1

Lancashire Council County

0 9

4 0

4 8

0 4

3 3 2 1 13 29

272 4

9 1 6

7 1

2 1 2

5 2 9 354 9

6 4

4 7

4 1

4 8

5 5

9 0 4 3

0 8 3 8 8 4 1 5

6 3

2 9 3

6 2

8 1

4 3

1 7

8 8

5 0

9 5 4

6 1

5 9

7 1 3 0

8 9 1 1

5 5

9 7

4 2

8 1

6 10

8 7 9 5 2 5 1

9 0

1 8 0

7 2 2

1 9 591 141 83 8 19

11 5 8

16 6 8 0

5 9 6

6 2 65 8 9

6 9

0 0 8

1 1 96

4 92

3 5 9

1 2

2 5 3

2 6

0 79

5 1

0 9

7 0

9 9 5

0 4

1 7

6 4

6 8

9 4

9 5

2 9

9 0

1 9 7

6 7

3 5 8

4 4 28

9 7

29 2

8 0

3 4

8 0

2 7

7 0

9 2

6 99

4 8 2 27 4 1 23 1

6 1 6

3 0 9

4 0 4

26 7

5 6 3 22

7 0 3 27 5 0 1

3 8

8 240 1

34 6 2 9

39 4

34 7

2 8

9 3 7

3 2

5 7

8 0 45 0

0 9 4

40 2

4 1

9 3

345 0 4 3 33 6 0 408 4 4 353

3 9

5 3 3 3

2 8

6 4 7 2 3 1 630 240 630 440 234

40 9

4 1 9

902 9 9 5

637

9 9

2 2

6 1 7 9

2 8

3 3

3 2 0 2 5

2 2

6 9

3 3

7 4

1 9

2 8

3 3

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Peak Morning Something 2032 Do - /009 B1859900/FLOW

2 2

1 9

2 8

3 3

6 9 1 1 2 24 3

1 6

7 5

28 4 2

2 1

9 2

3 1 1 4 2 1

346 9 506

7 7

8 7 4 2 35

4 0

519 5 54

524 4 8

6 4

4 5

5 9 8

5 47

8 4

9 5 8

88 5 4

3 548

9 2

5 5

9 8 0 5 43

589 479

524

7 8 4

1 5 1

8 2 5 1

4 165

7 1

1 7 1

1 8

1 Flow 8

7 81 81 6

7 76 76

4 1

7 7

3 2

6 6 0 1

7 7 9

6 5

2 7 2

1 2

4 4

1 4

8 4

6 7

2 6 8

7 1 5 2 5

39 14

3 2

Lancashire Council County

4 7

0 6

2 9

7 2

3 6 9 07 30

4 9

7 0

1 9

4 0

7 8 415 7

1 5

0 1

7 7

8 8

7 3 7

7 0

2 1

5 7 7

9 8 9 5 2

6 2

9 9

4 8

1 7

5 8 2

9 2

4 3 2

5 0

6 9

4 1 3

8 5

8 9 2 2

9 2

1 8

6 05

9 2 1 2 1 2

0 1

2 4 6

2 2 1 1 1 772 212

2 1135 2 2 7

43 5 1

1 4

6 6

9 46 1285

2 7

1 2

2 00

4 1

7 2 2

9 7

1 850 9 1

3 6

7 1

7 5

1 2

6 0

4 7 7

1 4

0 4

2 6

3 5

5 2

3 5 5

6 3 20

3 3

34 0

9 5

1 6

0 2 0

2 6

0 0

8 2

6 43

4 1 3 15 0 5 30 5

7 4 9 4

7 1 2

4 134 8

1 5

3 6 3 28

0 1 4 12 0 4

9 5

5 279 1 9

7 6 6 4

71 5

2 1

67 2 1

1 1 6

7 6

21 5

8 1 3

1 4 45 8

5 3

299 0 2 299 8 1 485

3 362 5 0

9 1

2 2 0

3 1 1

4 2 6 8 6 2 820 259 92 820 531 134

31 0

5 0 6

997 3

3 1

819

6 0

1 2

2 2

7 1

4 5 6 5

5 6

2 4

8 1 6 3 5

1 6

4 0

3 3

6 3

5 5

5 6

2 4

Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Flow Peak Evening Something 2032 Do - /010 B1859900/FLOW

1 3

5 5

5 6

2 4

1 3 7 1 5 18 7

2 0

4 9

32 4 1

2 1

3 5

7 7 1 8 1 2

226 7 385

4 3

2 9 3 3 22

9 5 9 34

36 3 3

301

52 9

3 9

9 7

3 33 9

3 3 7

00 4 1

399

3 3 0

4 3

3 7 7 4 56

473 337

301

9 9 9

3 3 1

7 9 4 4

9 109

9 9

1 2 1

3 7

1 Flow 7 1

1 71 71 1

8 1 181

9 9

9 2

Appendix D – AADT Flow Plots

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report 4 1 0 4

2 4

6 5

1 7

4 1 17

6 6

7 1

6 86

1 6

5 7 79 82 1 78

6 Lancashire Council County

6 1

7 1

3 8 5 1 1 9 91 27

208

3 0

8 0

9 8

608

3 3

5 9 2 9 5 1 4

3 4

8 2

5 4

9 3

5 2

9 5

9 8 4

1 9

1 2

1 7

3 9 9

8 9

5 7

2 3

71 4 2 1

3 0 0 39

26 7

3 0

5 6

1 8

1 2

6702 1719 18437 1

4 3

7 4 4

2 9

1 12401 1

0 1

2 1

0 94

0 7

3 77

4 2

1 7

2 6

6979

1 1

9 2

0 3

8 3

5 2

02 9

9 9

4 4 7

1 1

7 6 9 2

1 2

0 3 6

6 0 3

0 5 8 1

3 5

6 6 4

4 4 2

2 1 9

3 1 0

5 9

9 2

7 3

9 8

7 51 8 21 9 14 4 76

8 5 3

7 1

4 8

01 8

14 6

5 4

4 28

5 03 86

2 140

5 7

7 864 3

25 0 1

0 3 9 9

04 2

5 0

2 1

0 1

9 7 5

4 9

00 6

6 7 8

5 2

25 6

0 5 3

9 4 5 5

0 0

0 1

6 8

9 1

2 0 1762 7 3 7 3 9 1905

5 2

9 3

7702 7702 5933

33 4

59 5

0 2

0 3

1 4

3 9

3 7

6 8

1 1 Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Minimum 2017 Do AADT - /011 B1859900/FLOW Flow Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance AADT Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic AADT Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 10.04.2014 on: Created App:CEW Rev:DL Check:DL Orig:CEW 4 0 2 6

6 8

4 2

1 2

0 1 51

8 6

1 9

0 85

1 4

5 2 91 11 1 79

8 Lancashire Council County

5 1

2 1

2 8 3 1 1 8 75 27

322

3 4

2 4

7 8

844

3 3

5 9 2 9 5 1 4

7 2

8 3

3 6

2 1

1 4

5 2

9 5

9 0 4

1 4

1 0 0 6

2 9 0

1 8

8 8 2 9

80 6 4 1

6 0 0 33

26 0

0 5

8 4

1 7

4 1 2 0 3

1 6288 1919

2 0 074

9 2 18

65 6 6

4 8 2

2 4

2 1 8

9 2 0

9 4

5 4 11594

5 0 6

32 9

1 5

8 1

7 65 8

9 3

8 7

3 2

2 1

2 2 6

7 532

2 6

7 1

7 9 6

7 9

6 4

4 2

7 9

1 7

7 4 9 6

0 4 6

5 9

3 8 2

8 7

59 5

1 5 9 15 5

3 3 9

8 8

9 8

4 3

1 15 0

3 5 2

3 15 3 3 17 13 9 7 59 9 2

6 7 8

3 8 2 7

7 5

25 4

5 11 6

0 3

7 46 2 2

8 099

2 1

5 69

3 24

2 5

63 4 1 6

68 3

32 2

6 7

1 6

8 0

8 6 4

0 5

1 1

54 5

4 6 1

10 0

98 1 9 8

6 3

6 2

1 1 2288 3 8 9 0 9 3158

6 4

9 3

9311 9311 6908 6908

3 7

2 9

0 9

2 2 Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton AADT Something 2017 Do - /012 B1859900/FLOW Flow Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance AADT Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic AADT Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 10.04.2014 on: Created App:CEW Rev:DL Check:DL Orig:CEW 5 5 2 4

2 9

6 2

2 9

1 1 42

6 7

7 1

3 95

4 0

7 9 3 42 1 06

22 1

6 Lancashire Council County

6 2

9 1

0 0 9 2 1 2 82 33

378 9

8 5

043

3 4

2 4 4 5 3

0 2

0 1

9 6

6 4

2 4

4 4 3

5 3 9

1 9

0 1 8 0

1 1 2

9 9 2 5

1 91

5 0 5

5 8 0 48

18 3

8 4

8 8

1 2

4 2

7292 1755 212 1 21 5

1 4

6 5

1 4

6 1

5 9

1 14538 5

5 2 8

3 2

8 4

7 9

1 15

4 3

1 2

2 7

3736

3 2

2 0

4 7

0 5

9 2

8 1 3 2

4 1

6 4

1 1

8 9 0

1 1

5 7 7

0 0 5

7 9

9 1

6 4

6 1 1

6 6

5 1 4

5 2 0

9 8

9 6 8 5

4 8

3 92 9 57 9 15 42

0 2

9 3 7 1

7 4 1

1536 6

1 6 4

9 19

7 72 89

2 153

3 8

8 897 9

63 6 7

99 4 9

28 3

63 4 1

9 9

9 1 0

8 8

12 6

5 9

3 9

6 2

9 4

8 1 3

2 1

1 1

5 0

9 2

4 7 2577 5 7

8 6 6 0 96 6

5 2

5 5

1 2

1 1

1 3

8574 8574 5067

67 3

50 7

0 0

2 8

1 4

5 8

0 5

3 0

2 3 Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Minimum 2032 Do AADT - /013 B1859900/FLOW Flow Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance AADT Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic AADT Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 10.04.2014 on: Created App:CEW Rev:DL Check:DL Orig:CEW 3 8 6 5

5 5

3 9

2 1

8 1 34

5 2

1 4

6 95

0 8

2 2 9 30 1 17

22 1

5 Lancashire Council County

4 2

2 1

0 1 2 2 1 9 90 32

395 1

5 4

277

3 4

2 2 0 1 7 2

2 0

3 8 1

6 8 2

9 2

9 4

2 2

1 0 9

2 7 2

3 0 0

6 1 1 1

2 1 3

0 8 3 6

9 4

80 9

1 5 0

9 7 1 39

43 5

2 6

2 3

2 2

6 5 2 7

8 0 6854 1780 660 1 0 8 7 1 2

3 3

2 2

0 1

4 5

9 2 4 0

4 9 0

1 6

7 1 4959

3 0 1 9 7

3 0

5 6

1 8

0 35 5

7 1

8 1

7 3

1 8

2 7 6

1 19

8 42

5 2

5 1

4 4

7 5

4 8 9

2 1

1 9 4

6 5 0

8 9 5

2 0

6 2 1

7 1

9 5 3 5

2 1

72 4 2 7 6

7 1

5 6

0 2 3

2 8 3

4 7 1

7 2

7 0 3

5 7 5 1

4 80 3 23 5

1 97 8 2 5

0 6 2

9 1 6 3

8 87 7 0

5 21 5 7

1 6

6 2

9 85 3 2

8 169

3 2

7 88

7 28

5 5

66 6

1 2 4 5

5 5

6 6

6 0

1 1 1

4 7

1 3 6

6 0

64 7 9

0 6

11 1

52 1

5 0

6 1 0

7 3

2 4 3154 6 8

9 5 6 4 57 4

6 3

5 1

6 4

0 1

1 3

9642 9642 6458 6458

2 2

6 8

8 2

2 4 Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton AADT Something 2032 Do - /014 B1859900/FLOW Flow Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 right database and copyright Crown © data Survey Contains Ordnance AADT Traffic Flows - All Vehicles All - Flows Traffic AADT Broughton Bypass Model Bypass Broughton Created on: 10.04.2014 on: Created App:CEW Rev:DL Check:DL Orig:CEW

Appendix E – Peak Hour Difference Plots

Broughton Bypass Model – Forecasting Report Difference Plot 2017 AM –DS subtract DM Difference Plot 2032 AM –DS subtract DM Difference Plot 2017 PM –DS subtract DM Difference Plot 2032 PM –DS subtract DM