Efficiency and Equity of Public Spending in Brazil
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 1 2 A Fair Adjustment: Efficiency and Equity of Public Spending in Brazil BRAZIL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW Volume I: Overview November, 2017 3 4 Preface After a period of economic stability, high growth rates and a substantial poverty reduction, Brazil now faces major challenges to deal with its public spending. The growth of primary spending outpaced that of GDP even during the favorable phase of the commodity super-cycle. Spending has become increasingly inflexible due to constitutional rigidity in categories such as payroll and social security, leaving almost no room for discretionary and investment spending. Considering the change in the economic environment, this expenditure review was requested by the Brazilian government with the objective to conduct an in-depth analysis of government spending, to develop options for Brazil to reduce its fiscal deficit to a sustainable level while consolidating the social gains achieved over previous decades. The main finding of our analysis is that some government programs benefit the rich more than the poor, in addition to not achieving their goals effectively. As a result, it would be possible to save part of the budget without reducing access to or the quality of public services that benefit the poorest sections of the population. The analysis is based on the best international practices and evaluation of the efficiency of spending by different entities and government programs. The report pretends to encourage the debate about the allocation of public resources and the principles that guide public spending, with a view to promote greater equity and efficiency. Designing and enacting a “just adjustment” which puts Brazil’s fiscal accounts back on a sustainable trajectory, while protecting the poor and making public spending more equitable, is a great challenge. It will span more than one government and will require an extensive dialogue far beyond the federal government, including subnational governments, social movements, labor unions, business associations and many other groups. We believe that the sooner the country begins this debate and faces its problems, the sooner it will be possible to transform its current reality and return to the path towards shared prosperity for all. 1 2 Acknowledgements This report was prepared by a World Bank team led by Antonio Nucifora (Lead Economist for Brazil, World Bank), Cornelius Fleischhaker (Economist, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, World Bank), and Fritzi Koehler-Geib (Program Leader and Lead Economist for Central America, World Bank), under the guidance of Martin Raiser (Country Director for Brazil, World Bank) and Pablo Saavedra (Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, World Bank). The core team included: Fernando Andres Blanco Cossio (Fiscal Policy); Rafael Amaral Ornelas and Fabiano Colbano (Wage Bill); Alexandre Borges de Oliveira (Public Procurement); Heinz P. Rudolph and Asta Zviniene (Pension); Pedro Olinto, Andre Loureiro and Vivian De Fatima Amorim (Education); Kathy A. Lindert (Social Assistance Programs); Edson Correia Araujo (Health); Truman G. Packard and Matteo Morgandi (Labor Market Programs); Emmanuel Skoufias and Renata Mayer Gukovas (Incidence Analysis); Mark Dutz (Business Support Programs); and Flavia Nahmias da Silva Gomes (Team Coordination). Other experts from the World Bank Group also participated in several aspects of the study: Candyce Da Cruz Rocha, Claudia Baddini, Dandan Chen, Daniela Pena de Lima, David Oliveira De Souza, Andres Estrada, Ezau Pontes, Fabiano Colbano, Fabio Sola Bittar, Frode Davanger, Hans Anand Beck, Igor Andre Carneiro, Joao Bevilaqua Teixeira Basto, Juliana Braga Machado, Julio Velasco, Leandro Costa, Lorena Vinuela, Maria Concepcion Steta Gandara, Mariana Vijil, Maria Elisa Diniz Costa, Mariana Vijil, Massimo Mastruzzi, Michael Drabble, Michael Weber, Miguel-Santiago da Silva Oliveira, Monica Porcidonio, Paul Procee, Rafael Barroso, Rafael Munoz Moreno, Raquel Tsukada Lehmann, Roland N. Clarke, Rong Qian, Rovane Battaglin Schwengber, Thiago Scott, Tomas Damerau, Uriel Kejsefman, Vanessa Moreira da Silva, Vivian Malta and Xavier Cirera. A number of experts and academics from Brazil and beyond also participated in the study: Andre Portela, Daniel Santin, Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro, Gabriel Ulyssea, Justin Barnes, Leonardo Lima Chagas, Stephen O'Connell, Ricardo Pais de Barros, Sergio Perelman, Stella Lobo and Tim Sturgeon. Although each of them has contributed to specific parts of the report, they do not necessarily agree with the entire study and its conclusions, and of course they hold no responsibility for any errors or omissions, which remain the authors’ own. Invaluable comments and guidance were provided by Ana Paula Vescovi (National Treasury Secretary, Ministry of Finance), Mansueto Almeida (SEAE Secretary, Ministry of Finance), João Manoel Pinho de Mello (Secretary for Microeconomic Reforms, Ministry of Finance), Fabio Kanczuk (Secretary of Economic Policy, Ministry of Finance), Marcelo Caetano (Secretary of Social Security, Ministry of Finance), Marcos Mendes (Chief Economic Adviser to the Minister, Ministry of Finance), Otavio Ladeira de Medeiros (Deputy Secretary of the National Treasury, Ministry of Finance), Waldery Rodrigues Júnior (General Coordinator for Special Affairs, Ministry of Finance), Pedro Calhman de Miranda (Under Secretary for Infrastructure and Regulation, SEAE, Ministry of Finance), Alexandre Manoel Angelo da Silva (Under Secretary for International Competition, SEAE, Ministry of Finance), Angelo José Mont Alverne Duarte (Under Secretary of Economic Analysis and Competition Law, SEAE, Ministry of Finance) Felipe Bittencourt (Coordinator-General, General Coordination of Economic-Fiscal Studies, National Treasury, Ministry of Finance), Pedro Jucá Maciel (Under Secretary 3 of Strategic Planning for Fiscal Policy, National Treasury, Ministry of Finance), Felipe Palmeira Bardella (General Coordinator of Fiscal and Economic Studies, National Treasury, Ministry of Finance), Jefferson Bittencourt (Under Secretary of Fiscal and Tax Policy, Secretariat of Economic Policy, Ministry of Finance), Rafael Cavalcanti de Araújo (Under Secretary of Economic Policy, Secretariat of Economic Policy, Ministry of Finance), Rodrigo Cota (Deputy Executive Secretary, Ministry of Planning), Jorge Arbache (Secretary of SEAIN, Ministry of Planning), Arnaldo Lima (Chief Economic Adviser to the Minister, Ministry of Planning), Wilsimara Maciel Rocha (General Coordination of Social Policies, Ministry of Planning), Lorena Ferreira (Special Adviser to the Minister, Ministry of Planning), Martha Seillier (Head of Special Advisory Unit, Office of the Chief of Staff of the President), Bruno Silva Dalcolmo (Special Adviser, Office of the Chief of Staff of the President), Marcelo Pacheco dos Guaranys (Deputy Chief, Analysis and Monitoring Department of Government Policies, Office of the Chief of Staff of the President), Fabiana Magalhães Almeida Rodopoulos (Deputy Chief of Public Finance, Office of the Chief of Staff of the President), Janete Duarte (Deputy for Analysis and Monitoring Department of Government Policies, Office of the Chief of Staff of the President), Rogerio Boueri Miranda (Director of Institutional Development, IPEA) Alexandre Ywata (Director of Policies and Regional, Urban and Environmental Studies, IPEA), Lucas Ferreira Mation (Chief of Technical Assistance, IPEA), Ricardo Alberto Volpe (Director of the Budget Consulting and Financial Inspection, Chamber of Deputies) and Helio Martins Tollini (Budget and Financial Inspection Consultant, Chamber of Deputies). We are also grateful for the comments by Carlos Alberto Vegh Gramont (Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank), Daniel Lederman (Deputy Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank), Deborah Wetzel (Senior Director, Governance Global Practice, World Bank), Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (Senior Director, Finance and Markets Global Practice, World Bank), Carlos Felipe Jaramillo (Senior Director, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, World Bank), Paloma Anos Casero (Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe and Africa, Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice, World Bank), Marialisa Motta (Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice, World Bank), Reema Nayar (Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Education Global Practice, World Bank), Margaret Ellen Grosh (Senior Advisor, Social Protection and Labor Global Practice, World Bank), Pablo Gottret (Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Social Protection and Labor Global Practice, World Bank), Daniel Dulitzky (Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Health and Nutrition Global Practice, World Bank), Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Poverty Global Practice, World Bank). Special thanks to the peer reviewers: Teresa Ter Minassian (Consultant, former Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF), Jesko Hentschel (Country Director for Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, World Bank), Jorge A. of Thompson R. Araujo (Economic Advisor to the Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank), José Guilherme Reis (Manager, Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice, World Bank) and Emily Sinnott (Program Leader, Human