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The Three Seas Initiative As a Geopolitical Approach and Austria's Velina Tchakarova, Livia Benko FOKUS | 11/2021 The Three Seas Initiative as a Geopolitical Approach and Austria’s role Introduction exceeds all previous projects of the 12 scale transport projects, including the 103 signatory states and has a great potential km Helsinki–Tallinn undersea rail tunnel, The “Three Seas Initiative” (TSI) was laun- for the future connectivity in Europe.8 Rail Baltica, and the North Sea–Baltic Sea ched in 2015 and builds a framework for a corridor. This tunnel could be important pragmatic collaboration aimed at creating The Economic Pillar of the Three Seas for trade with Asia through the future a network of cooperation possibilities Initiative Arctic Northern Sea Route, a shipping line for twelve countries of the Central and between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Eastern European region (CEE).1 It seeks Altogether, the current members of the TSI Ocean.15 to promote large-scale infrastructural, represent roughly a third of the EU’s territo- digital, and energy-related investments ry, a quarter of its population, and one fifth The Security Pillar of the Three Seas Initia- that are highly needed in this geographic of its GDP.9 It is one of the fastest growing re- tive and the Role of the US area,2 as the region still faces underde- gions in the world, taking into account that velopment challenges mainly in the field the level of development of some of the The TSI countries also want to strengthen of infrastructure and interconnectedness states (e.g. Slovakia) was similar to the “Asian European security in the context of region- following 45 years of socialist rule and its tigers” before the Covid-19 pandemic.10 al threats and risks, such as the growing lasting negative setbacks after the collapse influence of Russia, by increasingly coope- of the Soviet Union.3 The TSI has been Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, these states rating with the US.16 By investing in the conducting a supportive role in relation experienced the highest economic growth TSI, the US is not only setting its foot in the to the efforts of the European Union (EU), in the EU, approaching 3.5% compared to neighborhood but also hopes to lure the which has been playing a key role in gra- the bloc average of 2.1% at the beginning region to its side and make it more strate- dually building better infrastructure and of 2020.11 According to the latest projec- gically predictable. In order to do so, the interconnectedness in the CEE countries tions by the IMF published in a study by US provides liquified natural gas (LNG) to and aiming to overcome the present gap Bruegel12, this geographic area will witness allow CEE to diversify their energy sources between the West and the East of Europe. the most significant post-Covid economic and thus become less reliant on Russian oil Regarding the CEF (Connecting Europe growth, which will help the countries and gas.17 Facility) Transport program, €23.4 billion catch up with Western Europe in econo- has been made available for grants from mic terms. The Three Seas Initiative could The US has been supporting the TSI from the EU’s 2014-2020 budget in order to co- reinforce the area’s economic momentum its very beginning. This could be seen fund TEN-T projects in the EU. Since 2014, by attracting more private investors, as at the TSI summit in Warsaw in 2017, several calls for project proposals have without the engagement of the private at which then President Donald Trump been launched supporting 935 projects sector and private capital the develop- expressed his support towards the initia- and a total amount of €23.1 billion in the ment gap between the Three Seas region tive.18 Further, US Secretary of State Mike transport sector.4 and the rest of Europe in most of the Pompeo pledged $1 billion (€850 million) sectors cannot be overcome.13 for the TSI fund as well.19 In October 2020, The CEE aims to achieve the infrastructural before the presidential elections, Joe standards of Western Europe and over- The TSI does not only play a role in Biden also showed interest in the TSI. The come the leftovers of the communist era, achieving gas supply independence from latter was confirmed after Biden´s victory, the outdated technology and unsustaina- Russia, but also enables a higher level of when the American Congress issued ble energy supply systems and neglected infrastructural interconnectedness. One resolution n. 672 supporting projects transport roads.5 The European integration of the flagship projects of the TSI is the under the TSI and the strategic concept of led to key investments in connectivity re- Via Carpatia highway that is planned to this initiative.20 In 2021, the Biden Admi- garding the East-West axis, which resulted lead through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, nistration plans to continue to nourish in the North-South axis being much less and Romania to Greece. This new highway the TSI as a central component of U.S. connected.6 By launching a North-South would be the main integration element for policy in Europe.21 The TSI presents also infrastructural axis, the Three Seas Initia- the less developed regions of east Poland, a great opportunity for the US to pursue tive aims to create an interconnected and east Slovakia, and east Hungary.14 its own economic interests in the region more self-sufficient Europe with greater and use it as an instrument in the fight diversification of supply chains and infra- Finland and Estonia signed a memoran- against China’s influence in the CEE.22 The structure.7 The TSI with its ambitious goals dum of understanding (MoU) on large- TSI enables the US to achieve economic 1 The Three Seas Initiative FOKUS | 11/2021 and technological influence in the region Interconnection Projects” was agreed recovery. The TSI, with the support of the and is at the same time seen as part of its at the 2018 TSI Summit in Bucharest.34 US, and despite Covid-19, continued to influence projection towards Asia.23 The Among these are many gas projects that gain success over the past year.42 It can be US has a good chance of success, as the are of pivotal importance for the Visegrad viewed as an investment in both collective suspicion of Chinese ambitions is growing 4 countries and for other countries of and national defense as well as in eco- within the CEE countries, amplified by the CEE and their supply diversification: nomic growth, and as an initiative with the coronavirus crisis which revealed how “The GIPL gas pipeline (Poland-Lithuania), further potential.43 unstable global supply chains are due to BRUA gas connection (Bulgaria-Romania- dependencies on China.24 The US is also Hungary-Austria, and Eastring gas pipeline Austria’s bridge-building approach to TSI trying to slow down China’s influence on (Slovakia-Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria), mobile phone technologies with its “5G Romania-Hungary interconnector, Baltic Austria occupies a unique position within Clean Network Security” plan.25 The 5G Pipe (Norway-Denmark-Poland, Poland- the TSI because it sees itself as a bridge network is essential for the interests of the Slovakia, and Poland-Ukraine gas intercon- between Western Europe and the former US because it enables the control of data nections)”.35 Soviet bloc of countries in Central and Eas- in regions where it is maintained.26 tern Europe. The Alpine republic is the only The Financial Pillar of TSI member that was not part of the Warsaw The stance of the TSI member states to- Pact or Yugoslavia during the Cold War. In wards the role of foreign state actors in the TSI can play a supportive role in the post- this context, Austria could become both region varies. Poland, Romania, and the pandemic recovery, as investments and a spoiler and a multiplier of the TSI. On Baltic States represent the so called “Ameri- new projects under the TSI will be highly the one hand, Vienna sees no incentive to can block”, fearing Russia’s expansionism needed in post-Covid Europe.36 Recently, participate in the TSI as a way of reducing the most.27 On the contrary, Hungary and the European Commissioner for Energy, the dependency of EU members on Russi- Austria tend to pursue a friendly relation- Kadri Simson, highlighted the pivotal an oil and gas imports, since the country ship with Russia.28 The Czech Republic still role of the Three Seas Initiative in helping itself plays an important role as an energy represents one of the most loyal customers Central and Eastern European countries hub for Russian supplies to the European of the Russian gas company Gazprom.29 to recover from the economic backsliding market. On the other hand, Austria could However, these differences are not grave caused by the pandemic and in supporting make a significant contribution to the enough to interfere in the planned LNG Europe’s Green Deal.37 development of the transport and digital cooperation, so this is in fact a promising North-South infrastructure.44 area where the Three Seas can play a large The EU agreed to provide funding for supportive role.30 about half of the planned projects under Austria has a great potential to play a the TSI.38 However, more money is needed, spoiling role as it does not always share The Energy Pillar of TSI given that the financial means required to the same geo-economic interests with modernize the CEE region are enormous the other member states, especially on A highly discussed issue in the TSI region is and up to date present approximately 600 key energy and infrastructure issues.
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