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Development Bank of Japan-Tohoku Branch Rebuilding Japan after the Great East Japan Earthquake: The Situation Today, Issues for the Future, and Initiatives by DBJ January 21, 2013 Tohoku Revival Reinforcement Office, Tohoku Branch title Almost 2 Years Since March 2011 1 1 The Affected Areas Today ① Figure 1: Estimated Damage to Capital Stock (DBJ figures issued April 28, 2011) in trillion yen Estimated Esimated capital Damage capital stock rate stock damage 宮古市Miyako 盛岡市Morioka Ａ Ｂ Ｂ／Ａ Inland 26.4 0.8 2.9% Kamaishi釜石市 Iwate Pref. Coastal 7.4 3.5 47.3% 陸前高田市Rikuzentakata Total 33.8 4.3 12.6% 気仙沼市Kesennuma Inland 31.4 1.6 5.1% Miyagi Pref. Coastal 23.2 4.9 21.1% 石巻市Ishinomaki Total 54.6 6.5 11.9% 仙台市Sendai Inland 34.3 1.3 3.7% Fukushima Pref. Coastal 15.9 1.9 11.7% Total 50.3 3.1 6.2% 南相馬市Minamisoma Fukushima福島市 Inland 47.8 1.0 2.1% 20km 郡山市 30km Ibaraki Pref. Coastal 21.7 1.5 6.8% Koriyama Total 69.6 2.5 3.6% いわき市 Inland 140.0 4.6 3.3% Iwaki Total Coastal 68.3 11.8 17.2% 4 prefectures 日立市Hitachi Total 208.3 16.4 7.9% 水戸市Mito Notes: 1． "Coastal" indicates cities, towns and villages having a shoreline; "inland" indicates other cities, towns and villages. 2. Estimates of stock and damage are calculated on a replacement- st Fukushima 1 nuclear cost basis. power plant 福島第一原発 3. Damage resulting from the Fukushima No. 1 power plant accident (c)ESRI Japan is not included in these estimates. 2 The Affected Areas Today ② Figure 5 Jobs-to-Applicants Ratio Figure 2 Status of Disaster Waste Disposal Times (37 coastal communities in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures. 1.20 Quake All Japan As of October 31, 2012) 1.10 Tohoku 1.00 Removal Amount Process/disp Est. amount Amount Iwate As of October 31 rate processed/ osal ratio 0.90 (A) removed (B) (B/A) disposed (C) (C/A) 0.80 Miyagi Disaster waste 18,020,000 t 15,160,000 t 84% 5,380,000 t 30% 0.70 Fukushima Tsunami sediment 9,560,000 t 5,550,000 t 58% 1,070,000 t 11% 0.60 Ibaraki Source:Reconstruction Agency Website 0.50 0.40 11/1 11/3 11/5 11/7 11/9 12/1 12/3 12/5 12/7 12/9 Figure 3 Mining and Industrial Production 11/11 Indexes (pre-disaster = 100) Source: Status of General Employment Placement (MHLW) 110.0 Figure 4 MiningFigure and Industrial4 Mining Production and TrendsIndustrial in Tohoku, Production by Sector (top Indexes, six sectors; All Japan Earthquake seasonally adjusted) by Sector (top six sectors) 100.0 All Japan 89.4 83.8 160.0 90.0 Quake 86.6 80.0 140.0 84.5 120.0 70.0 100.0 60.0 80.0 50.0 48.2 60.0 40.0 40.0 11/2 11/4 11/6 11/8 12/2 12/4 12/6 12/8 11/10 11/12 12/10 11/1 11/3 11/5 11/7 11/9 12/1 12/3 12/5 12/7 12/9 All Japan Tohoku Kanto 11/11 Iwate Miyagi Fukushima Electronic parts & devices (Weight: 17.9%) Food & tobacco products (11.8%) Ibaraki General machinery (10.1%) Telecommunications equipment (9.6%) Source: Prefectural websites Chemicals (7.0%) Transport machinery (6.3%) Source: Mining and Industrial Production Trends in Tohoku, Tohoku Bureau of Economy, Trade and Industry. 3 2 The Affected Areas Today ③ Figure 6 Population Trends in Four Affected Figure 7 Estimated Excess Inward and Outward Prefectures Migration in Four Affected Prefectures 1st day of each month. In thousand persons. thousand persons 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 Iwate 1,327 1,322 1,320 1,319 1,319 1,316 4 Miyagi 2,347 2,334 2,325 2,324 2,322 2,322 Quake Fukushima 2,024 2,015 2,006 2,001 1,997 1,994 Ibaraki 2,967 2,961 2,958 2,957 2,957 2,957 2 Inward 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 12/1 12/2 0 Iwate 1,313 1,313 1,312 1,312 1,311 1,310 Miyagi 2,323 2,323 2,324 2,324 2,324 2,324 ▲ 2 Fukushima 1,992 1,989 1,987 1,985 1,983 1,981 Ibaraki 2,957 2,957 2,956 2,955 2,954 2,953 ▲ 4 Outward 12/3 12/4 12/5 12/6 12/7 12/8 Iwate 1,310 1,305 1,305 1,305 1,304 1,304 ▲ 6 Miyagi 2,324 2,316 2,323 2,324 2,324 2,324 Fukushima 1,979 1,970 1,968 1,967 1,965 1,964 Ibaraki 2,951 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 2,946 ▲ 8 11/1 11/3 11/5 11/7 11/9 11/11 12/1 12/3 12/5 12/7 12/9 12/9 12/10 11/7→12/10 Iwate 1,304 1,303 -1.2% Miyagi 2,325 2,325 0.1% Iwate Miyagi Fukushima Ibaraki Fukushima 1,963 1,962 -1.8% Source: Population Trends, Basic Resident Register (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Ibaraki 2,946 2,946 -0.4% Communications) Source: Population Trends, Basic Resident Register (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Source: Population Trends, Basic Resident Register (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Source: Population Trends, Basic Resident Register (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) 4 After the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995（Reference） Figure 8 Changes in Monthly Mining & Industrial Production Figure 9 Comparison of Real GDP for All Japan and Hyogo Prefecture (1994 = 1) Indexes Before and After Hanshin and Tohoku Earthquakes 1.20 100 All Japan 1.10 95 90 1.00 85 Drastic drop after Tohoku quake Gap in economic growth rates 0.90 80 widened Pre-quake Post-quake Hyogo Prefecture 75 (Months) -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0.80 阪神･淡路大震災Great Hanshin EQ 東日本大震災GEJE Pre- Post- quake quake Note: On horizontal axis, month of earthquake = 0. 0.70 On vertical axis, 2005 = 100; figures are seasonally adjusted. Prepared by DBJ based on Mining and Industrial Production Indexes (METI). (Calendar year) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 全国All Japan 兵庫県Hyogo Prepared by DBJ based on National Accounts, Figure 10 Changes in Population: Hyogo Prefecture Prefectural Accounts (Cabinet Office). (Thousand 5,650 60 (Thousand persons) 5,600 40 persons) 5,550 20 5,500 0 5,450 ▲ 20 5,400 Cumulative migration-caused population change, ▲ 40 1996-2010: 56,000 persons 5,350 (43.7% of the change for 1995) ▲ 60 5,300 ▲ 80 5,250 ▲ 100 Population decline in 1995: 123,000 persons 5,200 (22% of the population of Hyogo Prefecture at the time) ▲ 120 5,150 ▲ 140 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1983 (Calendar year) Birth自然増減 - Death(出生-死亡 ) 社会増減Move in(転入 - Transfer-転出等) 総人口Total population Note: “Migration-caused population change” includes other migrants as well as those who have made notification on a residence certificate. Since some calculations are made using estimates based on national census populations, figures for some years may not agree with the natural population even when the population change for that year is added. Prepared by DBJ based on Trends in the Population of Hyogo Prefecture (Hyogo Prefecture). 5 3 Tasks and Problems for the Affected Areas ① Inland areas Coastal Iwate Prefecture Secure stable living conditions for evacuees Regain orders lost by core industries Undertake drastic review of community-building measures, Restart damaged facilities, public and private; earthquake-proof including relocation of housing and other social infrastructure existing ones Facilitate conversion of affected farmland to other use Prevent rumors through quick provision of accurate information Restore fishery facilities (fishing, marine product processing); create cooperatives, corporations, other management systems Coastal Ibaraki Prefecture Work to redress population drain caused by job loss Ensure access to urban planning engineers Publicize accurate information so as to minimize rumors in the fishing industry Coastal Miyagi Prefecture Ishinomaki City and northward: Tourism Same measures as for coastal Iwate Take prompt action to dispel rumors Higashi-matsushima City and southward: Offer hands-on events unique to the affected areas Promote the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the Sendai area, Conduct tourism campaigns and other events; take measures home to industrial and distribution industries driving all of Tohoku to attract visitors from outside as well as inside the region Introduce bold community-building measures in areas where tsunami damage forced relocation Health and welfare Convert affected farmland to other use Rebuild medical facilities in coastal areas Coastal Fukushima Prefecture Address shortage of doctors, nurses and public health workers Provide residents with health management and sustained Secure stable living conditions for evacuees; provide services follow-up care, especially in Fukushima Prefecture Address loss of healthcare facilities and healthcare workers Carry out decontamination and dispel rumors (c)ESRI Japan NPOs and volunteer groups Energy Infrastructure and housing Establish support acceptance framework Shift of energy control from supply side to demand side Expand East-West transport infrastructure Determine needs of affected areas and match them Suppliers: Consider mid-to-long-term energy mix Restart port facilities and neighboring areas (by raising with suitable support givers Introduce solar and other forms of alternative energy embankments, etc.) Quickly rebuild public housing affected by the disaster Resolve problems in attracting bids for public works 6 Sources: DBJ Inc., The Great East Japan Earthquake: Current Circumstances and Measures for Recovery; One Year Since the Great East Japan Earthquake: A Record; interviews with parties concerned.
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