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The Implications of Climate Change

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The Implications of Climate Change by RiCk BrowN, DeFendeRs oF wildliFe, FoR the NatioNaL FoRest RestoRatioN CollaboRative The Implications of Climate Change for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of National Forest Lands The Implications of Climate Change for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of National Forest Lands Acknowledgements Funding to develop and produce this report was provided by the Ford Foundation (through a grant to the National Forest Restoration Collaborative) and Defenders of Wildlife. Olga Krankina of Oregon State University, Bill Keeton of the Univer- sity of Vermont, and Connie Millar of the USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station generously reviewed earlier drafts for scientific accuracy and completeness. Bruce Taylor, Sara O’Brien, and Kassandra Kelly of Defenders of Wildlife provided crucial editorial assistance. Jim Cathcart, Doug Heiken, Nils Christofferson, Alan Ager, and Andy Kerr all provided helpful comments. Cas- sandra Moseley and Randi Spivak, on behalf of the National Forest Restoration Collaborative, provided both comments and an abundance of patience. Any re- maining errors or lack of clarity are the sole responsibility of the author. About the Author Rick Brown joined Defenders of Wildlife’s Northwest office as a senior resource specialist in 2000. Through his graduate studies and work for the USDA Forest Service and the National Wildlife Federation, he has spent more than thirty years working in and for the national forests of the Pacific Northwest and beyond. About the Project Partners The National Forest Restoration Collaborative is comprised of environmental and community-based forestry groups dedicated to providing national leadership to advance comprehensive forest and watershed restoration that is ecologically sound and benefits rural communities. Defenders of Wildlife is a national, nonprofit membership organization dedicated to the protection of all native animals and plants in their natural communities. American Lands Alliance’s mission is to protect and restore America’s forest ecosystems by providing national leadership, coordination and capacity building for the forest conservation movement. The Ecosystem Workforce Program is in the Institute for a Sustainable Environ- ment at the University of Oregon. Its mission is to build a sustainable society by interconnecting ecological health, economic well-being, and vibrant democracy. The Implications of Climate Change for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of National Forest Lands 1 ke A Tupper Ansel Bl Executive Summary h i s p a p e r is b a s e d o n a r e v i e w of key scien- derive from forests. Strategies to reduce the adverse tific literature on climate change and forests, effects of climate change (referred to as adaptation or Tin particular those aspects that appear to preparation) are being developed, but there is much have the most relevance for management and policy to be learned. Early actions to mitigate climate change related to national forests in the United States. Be- will be more beneficial than later efforts. cause policy is at least partly values-based, science Forests will be affected by climate change, but cannot determine policy; however, basing policy on they may also help to mitigate it. Forests influence science increases the odds that policy will provide the rate and extent of climate change by absorbing the values we seek. CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it in wood and Climate change is under way. It is caused primar- soils or by releasing CO2 to the atmosphere. CO2 is ily by the release of greenhouse gases (most notably released whenever land is converted to nonforest carbon dioxide, CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels uses or disturbed by logging, burning, or outbreaks by humans, and it will continue and may accelerate of insects and disease. All living forests both absorb if our use of fossil fuels is not substantially reduced. and release CO2, and the relative balance between the Changes in climate are altering forests and will in- two processes determines whether a forest is a source evitably cause further, more dramatic changes both or sink of CO2. Forests are not the solution to climate directly—through the direct responses of trees to al- change, but they can make important contributions. tered temperature and moisture—and indirectly— They will be most effective in mitigating emissions through shifting patterns of fire, insects, and disease, in the near term (the next decade or two), which cli- which are generally expected to increase in extent mate scientists have identified as a crucial period if and severity. While some of these changes may prove we are to avoid potentially catastrophic changes in beneficial, most will adversely affect the values we climate. 2 The Implications of Climate Change for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of National Forest Lands Climate change is a new and essential consider- in moist forests to improve yields or habitat. Postfire ation for management of national forests, but it can salvage logging can be expected to increase net car- be integrated with the other values of these forests. bon emissions. While planting trees after fire may Often, but not always, these values support one an- temporarily increase rates of carbon storage, possible other and the integration is synergistic. Similarly, effects on long-term productivity and vulnerability carbon storage is an important aspect of the role of to reburn need to be taken into consideration. forests in climate change, but it is not the only one. Conventional notions of restoration to presumed The goal of carbon storage must be integrated with “presettlement” conditions will become increasingly climate-adaptation strategies as well as traditional dubious as climate changes. In the near term, resto- goals such as water, wildlife, recreation, and wood ration treatments such as those intended to improve products. fire and drought resilience in dry forest landscapes A heavily promoted option for storing carbon in- are also consistent with preparing for warmer and volves intensive, short-rotation forest management drier conditions and increased likelihood of fires to produce long-lived wood products. Studies con- and insect outbreaks. sistently show, however, that due to the inevitable Strategies for conserving biological diversity will inefficiencies of converting trees to wood products, need to be modified to incorporate consideration of this approach will store less carbon than simply climate change, such as reconsidering which spe- letting the forest grow. Factoring in losses of car- cies may be of greatest concern, or size, number, and bon from the conversion of mature and old-growth location of protected areas. However, most of what forests, which is how virtually all managed forests needs to be done soon is what we’ve known we need begin, shows this option to be even less favorable. to do for a long time: reducing habitat fragmenta- Substituting wood for more energy-intensive mate- tion, increasing populations of at-risk species, and rials such as concrete might be beneficial, but the controlling invasive species. Conservation strategies benefits of such substitution cannot be measured need to recognize that species can be expected to reliably, and should not be presumed without ef- move and adapt independently as climate changes, fective public policies to ensure that substitution and that novel ecosystems will arise. occurs. Some of the greatest challenges in responding Any accounting of forest carbon needs to quantify to the threats of climate change may arise from the all the various component carbon pools—live trees, disconnect between the nature and pace of those other vegetation, dead trees (coarse, woody debris threats and the governmental and social institutions and snags), forest floor, and mineral soil—and the available to address them. Although human-caused fluxes of carbon to and from these pools. For policy changes in climate are remarkably fast by climato- considerations, it will be most fruitful to consider logical standards, they are slow compared to budget- these pools and fluxes over landscape scales and ing, planning, and electoral cycles. The fragmented, time frames of at least several decades. Increasing “stove-piped” approaches typical of natural resource either the frequency or severity of disturbance will management will need to be overcome if the eco- generally lower carbon stores. Annual carbon emis- logically cross-cutting challenges of climate change sions in the U.S. from logging and wood processing are to be met. The term “adaptive management” is exceed those from forest wildfires. burdened with a history of failure, but the learning- Managers have conducted thinning and fuels re- by-doing principles it embraces will need to be put duction in dry, fire-prone forests for a variety of rea- to work if we are to have any chance of successfully sons, and preparing for warmer and drier conditions addressing climate change. with climate change can now be added to the list. Although the challenges appear daunting, key The implications of such treatments for carbon stor- scientists and economists provide reasons to believe age needs further research, but it appears that the that they can be met, but only if interested citizens, net effect, whether positive or negative, may be rela- managers, scientists, and elected officials unite with tively small. This is probably also true for thinning a sense of common purpose. by RiCk BrowN, DeFendeRs oF wildliFe, FoR the NatioNaL
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