EMPLOYMENT in GREECE Commitment by the Government to Totally Phase- out Lignite by 2028
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JUST TRANSITION AND EMPLOYMENT IN GREECE Commitment by the Government to totally phase- out lignite by 2028 Project Study Shut-down of all current lignite-fired power Framework production plants in W. Macedonia and Megalopolis by 2023 EU Green Policies, Green Deal, Just Transition Mechanism, Sustainable Europe Investment Plan The masterplan developed by the Hellenic Ministry of Energy and the Environment for the transition of lignite regions Project: “A Just Transition for East and South Europe, (WWF Greece, WWF Germany, WWF Poland, WWF Bulgaria) 2 LIGNITE PHASE-OUT SCHEDULE 2020 2020-2023 2023-2028 Critical dependence on Differentiation of the power lignite of the domains of Transition Period production mix, touting on employment, economic -3,35GW RES activities and energy self- (Excluding Ptolemaïs V) sufficiency, particularly in the case of the West Macedonia Restructuring of the local Region and the Regional Regional Economy based Unit of Kozani on the orientations Critical period for retaining formulated under the Master Progressive phase-out of Plan and in local strategies lignite-based activity by 8% part of jobs as well as (overall), starting as of 2011 containing loss of income 3 LOCALISED APPROACH Population transformation ratio %: -7 (compared to 2011) GDP, mio. €: 3.963 (2018), R.U, of Kozani 2.245, R.U. of Florina 847 Region of Western Macedonia: •Per Capita GDP, €:14.663 (2017), R.U of Kozani 15.947, R.U of 2 Regional Units involved Florina 17.776 •Per Capita GDP., % EU average: 59 3 Municipalities involved (2018) Unemployment rate(>15 y.o), %: 25 (2019) • Youth unemployment rate (15 - 24), %: 53,5 (2019) Municipality of Eordea & Municipality of Kozani – the two most affected Poverty-threatened population municipalities in the percentage, %: 21,6 (2019) Region Contribution of the sectors of power & extraction in Gross Value Added (GVA) : 1.3 bio. € 4 LOCALIZED APPROACH Population transformation rate, %: -3 (compared to2011) GDP, mio. €: 3.963 (2018), R.U. Region of the Peloponnese: Arcadia, Μ€ 1.407 •Per capita GDP, €: 13.903 (2017), 1 Regional Unit involved RU of Arcadia 16.983 •Per capita GDP, % EU average: 57 1 Municipality involved (2018) Unemployment rate (>15 y.o), %: 12 (2019) • Youth Unemployment rate (15 - 24), %: 34,5 Percentage of poverty- The municipality impacted threatened population %: 19,7 in the Region is the (2019) Municipality of Megalopolis Contribution of the sectors of power & extraction in Gross Value Added (GVA): 1.6 bio. € 5 STRENGTHS •Abolition of the polluting activity – Transition to cleaner forms of energy •Protection of the Environment – Compliance with the “Polluter Pays” principle •Reduction of fines •Local sustainability SWOT Analysis •Important energy investments and networks in place •A fresh human capital of scientists and engineering technology specialists developed over the last decade for the region of W. WEAKNESSES Macedonia and the • Short period of time – Rapid lignite phase-out – Impossibility to achieve a direct transformation of the local economy • A sizeable portion of the local economy is found to be directly (and, considered by territorial unit, region of the almost exclusively) associated to lignite-related activities • Considerable number of workers impacted – Low educational level Peloponnese with • Limited room for transformation of specific entrepreneurial activities • Urban-planning & Zoning constraints respect to lignite • Constraints in the matter of innovation phase-out • Inefficient transports network and infrastructures – Weak supply chain OPPORTUNITIES •Development of clean energy – Development of an energy hub in the RWM •Development of a new development model - Valorisation of various local comparative advantages •Fostering new entrepreneurial activities –Attracting private investment –Bestowing extroversion unto RWM •Utilization of the Just Transition Fund •Implication of the University of West Macedonia (to the benefit of RWM) THREATS •Inertia of the local communities and distancing of the latter from the process of shaping locally relevant policies –Waiting for the implementation of a top-to-bottom approach •Low rate of adjustment of the human resources –Formation of a group of unemployed featuring specific characteristics-Workforce drain •Impossibility of application by the agencies involved, of selected transition strategies 6 1. PPC Seasonal Staff 2. PPC Suppliers and Subcontractors DIRECT IMPACT 7 Estimates as to the overall number of jobs directly or indirectly associated to lignite-related activities in RWM and ROP (Source: SMEI GCICTNG, 2020, HSA 2019) RWM ROP Directly associated • 05 Coal and Lignite Extraction Directly associated activities • 08 Other mines and quarries activities • 23 Production of other non-metallic mining products 9.469 workers • 35 Electrical power, natural gas, steam and climatization supply 1.775 workers • 25 Manufacture of metallic products Indirectly related • 28 Manufacture of machinery and misc. equipment activities Indirectly related • 33 Machinery & Equipment repairing and installation activities 5.667 workers • 45 Whole- & Retail Sale & Repairing of motorized vehicles & motorcycles 8.681 workers • 49 Land transports and transfers over pipelines Workers in RWM per two-digit reference Code (3d Quarter 2019) 8 Estimates as to the turnover of activities directly or indirectly associated to lignite-related activities in RWM and ROP (source: HSA 2019) RWM ROP • 05 Coal and Lignite Extraction Directly associated Directly associated activities • 08 Other mines and quarries • 23 Production of other non-metallic mining products activities 160.202.390 € • 35 Electrical power, natural gas, steam and climatization supply 21.766.030 € • 25 Manufacture of metallic products Indirectly related • 28 Manufacture of machinery and misc. equipment activities • 33 Machinery & Equipment repairing and installation Indirectly related • 45 Whole- & Retail Sale & Repairing of motorized vehicles & 433.204.310 € motorcycles activities • 49 Land transports and transfers over pipelines 77.115.490 € 9 Insight in income generated in association with lignite-related activities, within the three critical R.U. (Source: HSA 2017) RU of Florina RU of Kozani RU of Arcadia Business Turnover: Business Turnover: Business Turnover: Directly associated Directly associated Directly associated activities activities activities €24.753.670 €165.892.340 €98.881.520 Indirectly associated Indirectly associated Indirectly associated activities activities activities €12.833.240 €25.356.650 €21.766.030 10 Insight in employment associated to lignite-related activities in the four relevant Municipalities (Source: HSA 2017) Municipality of Municipality of Eordea Kozani (Ptolemais) Workers in: Workers in: Directly related Directly related activities:1.734 activities: 926 Indirectly related Indirectly related activities: 280 activities: 136 Municipality of Municipality of Amyntaeon Megalopolis Workers in: Workers in: Directly related Directly related activities: 215 activities:116 Indirectly related Indirectly related activities: 84 activities: 34 11 The affected “context” in figures (Source: PPC) RUs of Kozani & RU of Arcadia Local Economy (other indirectly affected sectors) Florina Contribution by Contribution by €1.3 billion, to GAV €1.6 billion. to Businesses active in the fields of vehicle supply, transportation of WM (51% for GAV of ROP (23%) and maintenance (fields indirectly affected) Kozani, 40% for Florina) 1.365 employed by 364 employed by subcontractors subcontractord Seasonal Staff & Subcontractors (PPC direct -99.415.000€ -68.198.000€ suppliers) turnover (direct turnover (direct sub-contracting) sub-contracting) 468 Seasonal w. 11 Seasonal w. Public Power Corporation (ΔΕΗ) 3.146 PPC staff 738 PPC staff Gravity varies by region The RU of Kozani is the one most impacted 12 Staff and contracting expenditure rollout over time (source: PPC) OVER TIME EVOLUTION OF CONTRACT COSTS ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES (THOUSAND €) IN CONTRACTING COMPANIES OVER TIME Megalopolis Lignite center W. Macedonia Lignite Center W. Macedonia Lignite Center Megalopolis Lignite Center Γραμμική (Megalopolis Lignite center) Γραμμική (W. Macedonia Lignite Center) Γραμμική (W. Macedonia Lignite Center) Γραμμική (Megalopolis Lignite Center) 1,900 211,805 1,682 206,188 -28% 204,056 -50% (-47% since 2015) 1,591 173,411 1,365 1,265 155,526 126,998 123,057 118,881 99,415 69,454 68,118 65,641 63,262 61,631 60,791 60,247 59,668 56,681 364 350 295 253 244 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 13 Human Resources Directly Impacted (seasonal workers and staff employed by contractors – Source: PPC) RWM ARCADIA • 468, SE and BE • 11, Technical Seasonal staff Technical Specialties Specialties • Secondary Educ. & Seasonal Staff Basic Educ. Graduates • Average age ~ 40 years • 1.365 Technical Specialties Subcontractor • 364, Technical Staff • Secondary & Basic Education Subcontractor Specialties Graduates • Secondary Educ. staff & Basic Educ. Graduates 14 Sectors most impacted amongst RWM businesses (Research sample amongst businesses under the Lignite Phase-Out Observatory) Turnover percentual distribution per impacted sector over the triennial 2017-2019 (main activity) *fiscal domicile of the establishment * 2017 2018 2019 ECONOMO-TECHNICAL PROJECTING 0.00% ATHENS 9.890.631,28 € 15.890.221,35 € 23.039.698,32 € MECHANICAL ENGINEERING WORKS IN GENERAL 0.01% THESSALONIKI 6.987.432,96 € 10.230.743,00 € 6.280.845,93 € MAINTENANCE AND REPAIRWORKS OF MOTORIZED