Frank Trentmann and Rebecca Wright

THE FUTURE IS NOW By Professor Frank Trentmann and Rebecca Wright Shortage is never far away from abundance. 5, 10, even 100 years. Governments, enterprise. This eliminated the space In 1956 Shell geologist Marion King political movements and technocrats for lifestyle change. The Commission Hubbert developed the theory of “peak offered their visions of the future. But recognised that Americans drove “heavier oil”. US crude oil production, he predicted, the future-oriented perspective was also automobiles than is necessary for mere would climb sharply until 1970 but then a much larger cultural phenomenon. transportation”, mostly alone, and wasted suffer a precipitous decline. A few years As time accelerated and space became precious chromium on decoration, later, in 1972, the Club of Rome published compressed in the globalising era of the but such “lavish uses of materials” were its report on the Limits to Growth. Its telegraph, steam ships and motorcar, ultimately defended as “valid choices in computer-simulated scenarios of the artists and writers turned their eye to the a society which places a high premium growth of population, industry, pollution, future too. “Futurism” was born on the on freedom of choice.” Instead of moral food and the depletion of resources made eve of WWI. The twentieth century stewardship, let alone socialist planning, for harrowing reading. Two of the three looked to the future, perhaps more so future energy use would best be governed scenarios predicted the “overshoot and than any other period. Our debates about by individual choice and private business collapse” of the entire global system by sustainability and climate change today in a free market with little government the second half of the 21st century. Only have emerged from that longer history. guidance. one scenario pointed to a stable world. Visions of the future involved more than Forecasting practices thus came to mirror The 1950s and 60s had been an era of a technical exercise of counting, graphs the Cold War divide between communist affluence: Western societies never and computer simulation. They reflected and capitalist nations. A 1956 UN report had it so good. These were the golden the social and moral worlds of their found a close correlation between planned years of the television, the washing times. Between 1900 and the 1960s, socialist economies that set targets and machine and the automobile. All of them visions switched from progressivism to liberal or social market economies which were powered by energy. The 1973 Oil a new paradigm of economic growth and projected past trends of growth into the Crisis showed just how precarious this freedom of choice. But it also included future. Britain, which mixed markets with new material lifestyle was. Utopias of ideas of social democracy and greater nationalised industries and a welfare state, David Cameron addresses workers in 2014 at Hinkley B as part of his visit to the site of the UK first new nuclear power station in 20 years, Hinkley Point C. living with ‘more’ switched into dystopias comfort for all. used both methods. Unlike their capitalist Photo: Department of Energy and Climate Change. of surviving with ‘less’. It was the 1970s neighbours, planned economies took into In 1908, US President Roosevelt set up a that supplied many of our pop culture account the entire web of consumption planning and avoid an ‘energy gap’ In Britain today, the official governing and can have more pressing than ever. National Conservation Commission to images of energy futures, most famously and production in their forward-looking between supply and demand. In thinking logic is to maintain present lifestyles, The future is never fixed: there are inventory the nation’s natural resources. Mad Max (1979), recently revived in economic plans. about how to close that gap and keep the with “no compromise of consumer utility”. alternatives, from redesigning mobility Drawing on contemporary rhetoric about Fury Road (2015). ‘lights from going out’, today’s solutions But investments in such new power and people moving into co-housing all the second law of thermodynamics, it Visions of the future are never neutral focus almost exclusively on the supply stations and infrastructures anticipate the way to more revolutionary ideals However, to reduce energy futures to just projected a Malthusian future with fixed benchmarks to monitor change. They side, greater generating capacity and more and help create future demand. of self-sufficiency. Energy transitions, ‘peak oil’ and the 1970s energy crisis, limits. America had a choice: it could themselves provide direction and privilege efficient technologies. Much less thought however, are rarely smooth and easy – Thinking about changing lifestyles is would be a big mistake. Societies have either burn through its resources but certain voices, policies and interests is given to reducing demand by changing Germany’s decision to phase out all not as difficult or weird as it may sound. worried about finite resources for a long then enter a period of decline and over others. In many ways, they help lifestyles. This is a curious imbalance, nuclear power has perversely brought After all, people’s habits and customs time. Innovation and growth inevitably exhaustion, or could conserve resources create a particular future. In the 1950s since it is ultimately what people do – a renaissance of coal. In Berlin, the have changed throughout history. During triggered fears of running out of resources. for future generations. It was a rallying and 60s American utilities forecast an travelling, cooking, charging devices – German government is building a and after WWII, Britain and many other The 17th century worried about a call for responsible stewardship. on-going rise in electricity consumption that consumes energy in the first place. “House of the Future” in which citizens, ‘wood crisis’. In the 1790s, the Rev. of 7% per year. Fearful of blackouts, such governments compelled or encouraged By the time of the Cold War, such architects and planners can experiment Thomas Malthus described how limited forecasts justified the building of more Given the huge amounts of money, people to rearrange their lives to save exhortations of moral responsibility and explore the world of tomorrow. food supply imposed a natural check power stations. This, in turn, meant higher political will and technological effort energy. California, in the 1980s, actively had given way to a new emphasis on What is clear is that imagination and on population growth: disease, starvation prices and, together with conservation that are devoted to expanding capacity, promoted energy saving as a ‘substitute’ individual freedom of choice. President creativity are just as essential as efficient and war would return societies to a more measures, led to a backlash. By the 1970s, the limited attention to people’s daily power plant. Japan’s response to the Truman set up the President’s Materials technologies and generating capacity. sustainable level. When the industrial the real growth in electricity demand had lives and energy-hungry habits is rather Fukushima nuclear disaster has shown Policy Commission in 1951. Its vision of Thus history and the arts must have a revolution got under way and more coal slumped to a mere 2% per annum. The striking. Hinkley Point C, the first of a societies are much more flexible than they the future, published the following year, central part to play in how we imagine was needed to fire steam engines, forecast of electricity shortage had helped new generation of nuclear power stations are often given credit for. By dropping the was characteristically entitled Resources and plan our energy futures. Victorians began to worry about the to generate its own electricity glut. to be built in Britain, will cost at least £18 tie, reducing air-conditioning, changing for Freedom. Its central mantra was that limits of British coal reserves. billion. That is the equivalent of half of work and holiday hours and a variety Professor Frank Trentmann and Rebecca Wright material and moral values were one and Whether they are “dirty” or “clean” – British government spending on housing of other measures, Japan cut energy use are at Birkbeck, University of London and members The 20th century produced a growing indivisible. Consequently, any desirable all energy systems operating today require and the environment, or 17 times the during peak hours by 20%. of the project Material Cultures of Energy, funded range of energy futures, some pessimistic, future had to be based on a respect for massive investment and time. It is the public money given to support arts and by the Arts and Humanities Research Council: Climate change makes the debate over others optimistic. Forecasts looked ahead freedom of choice, growth and private job of forecasts to assist such forward culture in the UK between 2015 and 2018. www.bbk.ac.uk/mce/. what kind of energy future we want .

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