Notes on Ergodic Theory
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Measure-Theoretic Probability I
Measure-Theoretic Probability I Steven P.Lalley Winter 2017 1 1 Measure Theory 1.1 Why Measure Theory? There are two different views – not necessarily exclusive – on what “probability” means: the subjectivist view and the frequentist view. To the subjectivist, probability is a system of laws that should govern a rational person’s behavior in situations where a bet must be placed (not necessarily just in a casino, but in situations where a decision must be made about how to proceed when only imperfect information about the outcome of the decision is available, for instance, should I allow Dr. Scissorhands to replace my arthritic knee by a plastic joint?). To the frequentist, the laws of probability describe the long- run relative frequencies of different events in “experiments” that can be repeated under roughly identical conditions, for instance, rolling a pair of dice. For the frequentist inter- pretation, it is imperative that probability spaces be large enough to allow a description of an experiment, like dice-rolling, that is repeated infinitely many times, and that the mathematical laws should permit easy handling of limits, so that one can make sense of things like “the probability that the long-run fraction of dice rolls where the two dice sum to 7 is 1/6”. But even for the subjectivist, the laws of probability should allow for description of situations where there might be a continuum of possible outcomes, or pos- sible actions to be taken. Once one is reconciled to the need for such flexibility, it soon becomes apparent that measure theory (the theory of countably additive, as opposed to merely finitely additive measures) is the only way to go. -
Appendix A. Measure and Integration
Appendix A. Measure and integration We suppose the reader is familiar with the basic facts concerning set theory and integration as they are presented in the introductory course of analysis. In this appendix, we review them briefly, and add some more which we shall need in the text. Basic references for proofs and a detailed exposition are, e.g., [[ H a l 1 ]] , [[ J a r 1 , 2 ]] , [[ K F 1 , 2 ]] , [[ L i L ]] , [[ R u 1 ]] , or any other textbook on analysis you might prefer. A.1 Sets, mappings, relations A set is a collection of objects called elements. The symbol card X denotes the cardi- nality of the set X. The subset M consisting of the elements of X which satisfy the conditions P1(x),...,Pn(x) is usually written as M = { x ∈ X : P1(x),...,Pn(x) }.A set whose elements are certain sets is called a system or family of these sets; the family of all subsystems of a given X is denoted as 2X . The operations of union, intersection, and set difference are introduced in the standard way; the first two of these are commutative, associative, and mutually distributive. In a { } system Mα of any cardinality, the de Morgan relations , X \ Mα = (X \ Mα)and X \ Mα = (X \ Mα), α α α α are valid. Another elementary property is the following: for any family {Mn} ,whichis { } at most countable, there is a disjoint family Nn of the same cardinality such that ⊂ \ ∪ \ Nn Mn and n Nn = n Mn.Theset(M N) (N M) is called the symmetric difference of the sets M,N and denoted as M #N. -
Set Theory, Including the Axiom of Choice) Plus the Negation of CH
ANNALS OF ~,IATltEMATICAL LOGIC - Volume 2, No. 2 (1970) pp. 143--178 INTERNAL COHEN EXTENSIONS D.A.MARTIN and R.M.SOLOVAY ;Tte RockeJ~'ller University and University (.~t CatiJbrnia. Berkeley Received 2 l)ecemt)er 1969 Introduction Cohen [ !, 2] has shown that tile continuum hypothesis (CH) cannot be proved in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. Levy and Solovay [9] have subsequently shown that CH cannot be proved even if one assumes the existence of a measurable cardinal. Their argument in tact shows that no large cardinal axiom of the kind present;y being considered by set theorists can yield a proof of CH (or of its negation, of course). Indeed, many set theorists - including the authors - suspect that C1t is false. But if we reject CH we admit Gurselves to be in a state of ignorance about a great many questions which CH resolves. While CH is a power- full assertion, its negation is in many ways quite weak. Sierpinski [ 1 5 ] deduces propcsitions there called C l - C82 from CH. We know of none of these propositions which is decided by the negation of CH and only one of them (C78) which is decided if one assumes in addition that a measurable cardinal exists. Among the many simple questions easily decided by CH and which cannot be decided in ZF (Zerme!o-Fraenkel set theory, including the axiom of choice) plus the negation of CH are tile following: Is every set of real numbers of cardinality less than tha't of the continuum of Lebesgue measure zero'? Is 2 ~0 < 2 ~ 1 ? Is there a non-trivial measure defined on all sets of real numbers? CIhis third question could be decided in ZF + not CH only in the unlikely event t Tile second author received support from a Sloan Foundation fellowship and tile National Science Foundation Grant (GP-8746). -
Algebra I Chapter 1. Basic Facts from Set Theory 1.1 Glossary of Abbreviations
Notes: c F.P. Greenleaf, 2000-2014 v43-s14sets.tex (version 1/1/2014) Algebra I Chapter 1. Basic Facts from Set Theory 1.1 Glossary of abbreviations. Below we list some standard math symbols that will be used as shorthand abbreviations throughout this course. means “for all; for every” • ∀ means “there exists (at least one)” • ∃ ! means “there exists exactly one” • ∃ s.t. means “such that” • = means “implies” • ⇒ means “if and only if” • ⇐⇒ x A means “the point x belongs to a set A;” x / A means “x is not in A” • ∈ ∈ N denotes the set of natural numbers (counting numbers) 1, 2, 3, • · · · Z denotes the set of all integers (positive, negative or zero) • Q denotes the set of rational numbers • R denotes the set of real numbers • C denotes the set of complex numbers • x A : P (x) If A is a set, this denotes the subset of elements x in A such that •statement { ∈ P (x)} is true. As examples of the last notation for specifying subsets: x R : x2 +1 2 = ( , 1] [1, ) { ∈ ≥ } −∞ − ∪ ∞ x R : x2 +1=0 = { ∈ } ∅ z C : z2 +1=0 = +i, i where i = √ 1 { ∈ } { − } − 1.2 Basic facts from set theory. Next we review the basic definitions and notations of set theory, which will be used throughout our discussions of algebra. denotes the empty set, the set with nothing in it • ∅ x A means that the point x belongs to a set A, or that x is an element of A. • ∈ A B means A is a subset of B – i.e. -
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes Antonio Jiménez-Martínez Chapter 1 Probability spaces In this chapter we introduce the theoretical structures that will allow us to assign proba- bilities in a wide range of probability problems. 1.1. Examples of random phenomena Science attempts to formulate general laws on the basis of observation and experiment. The simplest and most used scheme of such laws is: if a set of conditions B is satisfied =) event A occurs. Examples of such laws are the law of gravity, the law of conservation of mass, and many other instances in chemistry, physics, biology... If event A occurs inevitably whenever the set of conditions B is satisfied, we say that A is certain or sure (under the set of conditions B). If A can never occur whenever B is satisfied, we say that A is impossible (under the set of conditions B). If A may or may not occur whenever B is satisfied, then A is said to be a random phenomenon. Random phenomena is our subject matter. Unlike certain and impossible events, the presence of randomness implies that the set of conditions B do not reflect all the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event A to occur. It might seem them impossible to make any worthwhile statements about random phenomena. However, experience has shown that many random phenomena exhibit a statistical regularity that makes them subject to study. For such random phenomena it is possible to estimate the chance of occurrence of the random event. This estimate can be obtained from laws, called probabilistic or stochastic, with the form: if a set of conditions B is satisfied event A occurs m times =) repeatedly n times out of the n repetitions. -
Bayesian Push-Forward Based Inference
Bayesian Push-forward based Inference A Consistent Bayesian Formulation for Stochastic Inverse Problems Based on Push-forward Measures T. Butler,∗ J. Jakeman,y T. Wildeyy April 4, 2017 Abstract We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is derived using a Bayesian updating approach for measurable maps that finds a posterior probability measure, that when propagated through the deterministic model produces a push-forward measure that exactly matches the observed prob- ability measure on the data. Our approach for finding such posterior measures, which we call consistent Bayesian inference, is simple and only requires the computation of the push-forward probability measure induced by the combination of a prior probability measure and the deter- ministic model. We establish existence and uniqueness of observation-consistent posteriors and present stability and error analysis. We also discuss the relationships between consistent Bayesian inference, classical/statistical Bayesian inference, and a recently developed measure-theoretic ap- proach for inference. Finally, analytical and numerical results are presented to highlight certain properties of the consistent Bayesian approach and the differences between this approach and the two aforementioned alternatives for inference. Keywords. stochastic inverse problems, Bayesian inference, uncertainty quantification, density estimation AMS classifications. 60H30, 60H35, 60B10 1 Introduction Inferring information about the parameters of a model from observations is a common goal in scientific modelling and engineering design. Given a simulation model, one often seeks to determine the set of possible model parameter values which produce a set of model outputs that match some set of observed arXiv:1704.00680v1 [math.NA] 3 Apr 2017 or desired values. -
Lecture Notes
MEASURE THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES Lecture Notes José Melo, Susana Cruz Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores March 2011 Contents 1 Probability Space3 1 Sample space Ω .....................................4 2 σ-eld F .........................................4 3 Probability Measure P .................................6 3.1 Measure µ ....................................6 3.2 Probability Measure P .............................7 4 Learning Objectives..................................7 5 Appendix........................................8 2 Chapter 1 Probability Space Let's consider the experience of throwing a dart on a circular target with radius r (assuming the dart always hits the target), divided in 4 dierent areas as illustrated in Figure 1.1. 4 3 2 1 Figure 1.1: Circular Target The circles that bound the regions 1, 2, 3, and 4, have radius of, respectively, r , r , 3r , and . 4 2 4 r Therefore, the probability that a dart lands in each region is: 1 , 3 , 5 , P (1) = 16 P (2) = 16 P (3) = 16 7 . P (4) = 16 For this kind of problems, the theory of discrete probability spaces suces. However, when it comes to problems involving either an innitely repeated operation or an innitely ne op- eration, this mathematical framework does not apply. This motivates the introduction of a measure-theoretic probability approach to correctly describe those cases. We dene the proba- bility space (Ω; F;P ), where Ω is the sample space, F is the event space, and P is the probability 3 measure. Each of them will be described in the following subsections. 1 Sample space Ω The sample space Ω is the set of all the possible results or outcomes ! of an experiment or observation. -
Ergodicity, Decisions, and Partial Information
Ergodicity, Decisions, and Partial Information Ramon van Handel Abstract In the simplest sequential decision problem for an ergodic stochastic pro- cess X, at each time n a decision un is made as a function of past observations X0,...,Xn 1, and a loss l(un,Xn) is incurred. In this setting, it is known that one may choose− (under a mild integrability assumption) a decision strategy whose path- wise time-average loss is asymptotically smaller than that of any other strategy. The corresponding problem in the case of partial information proves to be much more delicate, however: if the process X is not observable, but decisions must be based on the observation of a different process Y, the existence of pathwise optimal strategies is not guaranteed. The aim of this paper is to exhibit connections between pathwise optimal strategies and notions from ergodic theory. The sequential decision problem is developed in the general setting of an ergodic dynamical system (Ω,B,P,T) with partial information Y B. The existence of pathwise optimal strategies grounded in ⊆ two basic properties: the conditional ergodic theory of the dynamical system, and the complexity of the loss function. When the loss function is not too complex, a gen- eral sufficient condition for the existence of pathwise optimal strategies is that the dynamical system is a conditional K-automorphism relative to the past observations n n 0 T Y. If the conditional ergodicity assumption is strengthened, the complexity assumption≥ can be weakened. Several examples demonstrate the interplay between complexity and ergodicity, which does not arise in the case of full information. -
Borel Structure in Groups and Their Dualso
BOREL STRUCTURE IN GROUPS AND THEIR DUALSO GEORGE W. MACKEY Introduction. In the past decade or so much work has been done toward extending the classical theory of finite dimensional representations of com- pact groups to a theory of (not necessarily finite dimensional) unitary repre- sentations of locally compact groups. Among the obstacles interfering with various aspects of this program is the lack of a suitable natural topology in the "dual object"; that is in the set of equivalence classes of irreducible representations. One can introduce natural topologies but none of them seem to have reasonable properties except in extremely special cases. When the group is abelian for example the dual object itself is a locally compact abelian group. This paper is based on the observation that for certain purposes one can dispense with a topology in the dual object in favor of a "weaker struc- ture" and that there is a wide class of groups for which this weaker structure has very regular properties. If .S is any topological space one defines a Borel (or Baire) subset of 5 to be a member of the smallest family of subsets of 5 which includes the open sets and is closed with respect to the formation of complements and countable unions. The structure defined in 5 by its Borel sets we may call the Borel structure of 5. It is weaker than the topological structure in the sense that any one-to-one transformation of S onto 5 which preserves the topological structure also preserves the Borel structure whereas the converse is usually false. -
On the Continuing Relevance of Mandelbrot's Non-Ergodic Fractional Renewal Models of 1963 to 1967
Nicholas W. Watkins On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot's non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967 Article (Published version) (Refereed) Original citation: Watkins, Nicholas W. (2017) On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot's non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967.European Physical Journal B, 90 (241). ISSN 1434-6028 DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2017-80357-3 Reuse of this item is permitted through licensing under the Creative Commons: © 2017 The Author CC BY 4.0 This version available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/84858/ Available in LSE Research Online: February 2018 LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. You may freely distribute the URL (http://eprints.lse.ac.uk) of the LSE Research Online website. Eur. Phys. J. B (2017) 90: 241 DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2017-80357-3 THE EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL B Regular Article On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot's non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967? Nicholas W. Watkins1,2,3 ,a 1 Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK 2 Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK 3 Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, Open University, Milton Keynes, UK Received 20 June 2017 / Received in final form 25 September 2017 Published online 11 December 2017 c The Author(s) 2017. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Abstract. -
Ergodic Theory
MATH41112/61112 Ergodic Theory Charles Walkden 4th January, 2018 MATH4/61112 Contents Contents 0 Preliminaries 2 1 An introduction to ergodic theory. Uniform distribution of real se- quences 4 2 More on uniform distribution mod 1. Measure spaces. 13 3 Lebesgue integration. Invariant measures 23 4 More examples of invariant measures 38 5 Ergodic measures: definition, criteria, and basic examples 43 6 Ergodic measures: Using the Hahn-Kolmogorov Extension Theorem to prove ergodicity 53 7 Continuous transformations on compact metric spaces 62 8 Ergodic measures for continuous transformations 72 9 Recurrence 83 10 Birkhoff’s Ergodic Theorem 89 11 Applications of Birkhoff’s Ergodic Theorem 99 12 Solutions to the Exercises 108 1 MATH4/61112 0. Preliminaries 0. Preliminaries 0.1 Contact details § The lecturer is Dr Charles Walkden, Room 2.241, Tel: 0161 275 5805, Email: [email protected]. My office hour is: Monday 2pm-3pm. If you want to see me at another time then please email me first to arrange a mutually convenient time. 0.2 Course structure § This is a reading course, supported by one lecture per week. I have split the notes into weekly sections. You are expected to have read through the material before the lecture, and then go over it again afterwards in your own time. In the lectures I will highlight the most important parts, explain the statements of the theorems and what they mean in practice, and point out common misunderstandings. As a general rule, I will not normally go through the proofs in great detail (but they are examinable unless indicated otherwise). -
Ergodicity and Metric Transitivity
Chapter 25 Ergodicity and Metric Transitivity Section 25.1 explains the ideas of ergodicity (roughly, there is only one invariant set of positive measure) and metric transivity (roughly, the system has a positive probability of going from any- where to anywhere), and why they are (almost) the same. Section 25.2 gives some examples of ergodic systems. Section 25.3 deduces some consequences of ergodicity, most im- portantly that time averages have deterministic limits ( 25.3.1), and an asymptotic approach to independence between even§ts at widely separated times ( 25.3.2), admittedly in a very weak sense. § 25.1 Metric Transitivity Definition 341 (Ergodic Systems, Processes, Measures and Transfor- mations) A dynamical system Ξ, , µ, T is ergodic, or an ergodic system or an ergodic process when µ(C) = 0 orXµ(C) = 1 for every T -invariant set C. µ is called a T -ergodic measure, and T is called a µ-ergodic transformation, or just an ergodic measure and ergodic transformation, respectively. Remark: Most authorities require a µ-ergodic transformation to also be measure-preserving for µ. But (Corollary 54) measure-preserving transforma- tions are necessarily stationary, and we want to minimize our stationarity as- sumptions. So what most books call “ergodic”, we have to qualify as “stationary and ergodic”. (Conversely, when other people talk about processes being “sta- tionary and ergodic”, they mean “stationary with only one ergodic component”; but of that, more later. Definition 342 (Metric Transitivity) A dynamical system is metrically tran- sitive, metrically indecomposable, or irreducible when, for any two sets A, B n ∈ , if µ(A), µ(B) > 0, there exists an n such that µ(T − A B) > 0.