8 April 2021

COVID 19 EUROCONTROL IMPACT ON Comprehensive Assessment EUROPEAN AVIATION

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 1 Traffic Situation Headlines Daily flights (including overflights)

. 10,954 flights (35% of 2019 levels) on Wednesday 7 April 2021, dropping 8% (-975 Traffic over the last 7 days is flights since 31 March 2021).

. Traffic for flows to/from Southern still very active ( +32% over 2 weeks, Compared to +17%, +74%, +10%). High increase in the UK (+20%). equivalent days in 2019 . Significant increase for (+327%) and TAP/Air Portugal (+277%) over 2 weeks. 65% . Domestic traffic vs 2019: Europe (-67%), US (-31%), China (+10%), Mid-East (-40%). [Note: Easter this year (4 April 2021) is almost 3 weeks earlier than in 2019 (21 April 2019)] . Market segments: decrease for cargo, biz and charter vs 2019. Increase for Low Cost

2 2 Top 10 Busiest 7-day average Dep/Arr flights on 1-7 April, compared to 2019

Average flights per day (week Average flights per day (week Top 10 Airports 1-7/4) 1-7/4) vs 2019 IGA Istanbul 651 Not yet in operation in early 2019 532 -64% /Charles-De-Gaulle 485 -65% 469 -67% Istanbul/Sabiha Gokcen 422 -33% Madrid/Barajas 396 -66% /Heathrow 345 -75% Palma De Mallorca 261 -55% Munich 220 -81% Athens 219 -60% Economics (01 April 2021) Traffic Flow Fuel price On 7 April, the intra-European traffic flow was 156 8,076 + 4% -67% Cents/gallon over past 2 weeks compared to 2019 compared to 160 cents/gallon flights on 26 Mar 21 Source: IATA/Platts Source: ACI 3 Overall traffic situation at network level

10,954 flights on Wednesday 7 April. +4% with +387 flights over 2 weeks (from Wednesday 24 March). -8% with -975 flights over 1 week (from Wednesday 31 March).

35% of 2019 traffic levels.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 4 Current situation and scenarios

Traffic at -65% on 1-7 April 2021 vs 1-7 April 2019, slightly After having reached a maximum at network level at the above the latest EUROCONTROL traffic scenarios published on end of March (around Easter), the traffic is now clearly 28 January 2021 mainly due to: decreasing over the last week. • Very active cargo traffic. • Higher number of operations for top airlines than anticipated. A large part of the increase vs 2019 is due to the fact that • Easter holidays started in March compared to April in 2019. Easter this year (4 April 2021) is almost 3 weeks earlier than in 2019 (21 April 2019). Note that a significant proportion of flight operations for some of the largest airlines are actually non-commercial, i.e. training flights and circular flights to maintain pilot ratings.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 5 Aircraft operators (Daily flights) Top 10 Positive change in the ranking Rank over 2 weeks for Lufthansa, evolution Top 10 Aircraft Operators on Wed 07-04-2021 Ryanair and Alitalia. over 2 D over 2 % over 2 Aircraft Operator Flights % vs 2019 2-digit increase for most weeks weeks weeks airlines. 3-digit increase for  TURKISH AIRLINES 728  +63 +9%  -34% Ryanair.  AIR 398  +41 +11%  -66%  WIDEROE 329  +26 +9%  -19% Highest increase over 2 weeks  DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA 300  +76 +34%  -81% for Ryanair (+327%), 1/3 due  PEGASUS HAVA TASI. 289  +33 +13%  -31% to domestic Italian flows  DHL EXPRESS 279  +5 +2%  +6% followed by domestic flows in  KLM ROYAL DUTCH AIRL 271  +42 +18%  -63% Spain and UK.  RYANAIR 265  +203 +327%  -89%  ALITALIA 199  +89 +81%  -64% High increase for Alitalia  SCANDINAVIAN AIRLINES SYSTEM 166  +15 +10%  -84% (+81%) mainly driven by domestic flows within Italy.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 6 Aircraft operators (Daily flights) Top 40 – Latest operations

Highest increase for Ryanair (+327%), TAP/Air Portugal (+277%), Vueling (+133%) and Wizz Air (+104%). Ryanair 8th, British Airways 14th, Wizz Air 16th and easyJet 23rd. Traffic levels ranging from -99% ( Airlines) to -19% (Wideroe) compared to 2019 SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 7 Aircraft operators Latest news European airlines

airBaltic starting Tallin-Munich service in May. Air France recapitalisation of up to €4 billion approved by Worldwide airlines . KLM welcomes the Air France capital strengthening and Alaska Airlines to purchase an additional 23 Boeing 737 notes that it is in talks with the Dutch State as it will also MAX aircraft between 2023 and 2024. need capital “in time”. American Airlines introduces Quarantine-free travel on Ryanair to operate Lisbon-Cologne twice a week and flights from New York to Milan and Rome. Belfast-Faro daily from summer 2021; launching 3 services Emirates to resume Dubai-Milan-JFK service on 1 June; from Zagreb; passenger numbers in March were 91% down delivers 50 million vaccine doses to more than 50 year-on-year to 500,000. destinations. TAP plans to operate 100 routes with 879 flights a week by Southwest Airlines recalls 209 pilots from voluntary August; adding 8 new routes to Europe and Africa. extended leave ahead of busier summer schedule. Wizz Air reports March passenger numbers down 72.6% year-on-year; operated just below 20% of its capacity with a load factor of 63%.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 8 States (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10 2-digit increase for half of top 10 States over 2 weeks. Rank Top 10 States on Wed 07-04-2021 evolution Increase in the ranking over 2 over 2 D over 2 % over 2 State Flights (Dep/Arr) % vs 2019 weeks for . weeks weeks weeks  1749  -140 -7%  -72% Highest increase for Italy (+32%)  France 1612  -52 -3%  -65% mainly driven by domestic flows  Turkey 1401  +127 +10%  -38% and traffic from Ryanair and  Spain 1309  +187 +17%  -71% Alitalia.  1179  +199 +20%  -81%  Italy 1013  +247 +32%  -72% High increase for UK (+20%) half  815  +67 +9%  -52% of it being driven by domestic  583  +45 +8%  -67% traffic.  Belgium 367  -18 -5%  -66%  336  -92 -21%  -75% High increase for Spain (+17%) and Turkey (+10%). Highest decrease for Germany (-7%) mainly due to light aircraft following increase before Easter.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 9 States (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest traffic situation

Strong increase for Portugal (+74% over 2 weeks), 1/3 due to domestic traffic, the rest due to flows from/to Northern Europe and Spain. Half of it by Tap/Air Portugal. Traffic levels ranging from -89% () to -34% (), compared to 2019.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 10 Associations and Institutions

IATA: Willie Walsh succeeds Alexandre de Juniac as Director General; releases its safety report showing fewer accidents in 2020 but a higher accident rate of 1.71 accidents per million flights.

French DGAC reports that passenger numbers for France in February were 93.9% lower than in 2020 (domestic -63.6%, international -89.1%). US CDC lifts domestic travel restrictions (testing/quarantines) for fully vaccinated citizens. Singapore to enable use of IATA Travel Pass from May.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 11 Traffic flows (Daily Departure/Arrival flights)

The main traffic flow is the intra-Europe flow with 8,076 flights on Wednesday 7 April, which is increasing (+4%) over 2 weeks. Intra-Europe flights are at -67% compared to 2019 while

intercontinental flows are at -58%. REGION 24-03-2021 07-04-2021 % vs. 2019 Intra-Europe 7 765 8 076 +4% -67% Europe<->Asia/Pacific 414 446 +8% -42% Europe<->Mid-Atlantic 68 64 -6% -60% Europe<->Middle-East 584 574 -2% -57% Europe<->North Atlantic 427 458 +7% -60% Europe<->North-Africa 306 258 -16% -72% Europe<->Other Europe 301 351 +17% -60% Europe<->South-Atlantic 58 59 +2% -66% Europe<->Southern Africa 159 175 +10% -44% Non Intra-Europe 2 317 2 385 +3% -58%

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 12 Country pairs (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10 9 of the top 10 flows are domestic. Rank Highest increase for evolution Top 10 Country-Pair on Wed 07-04-2021 domestic flows in Italy over 2 ∆ over 2 % over 2 (+52%) mainly Ryanair, Country-Pair Dep/Arr Flights % vs 2019 weeks week week Alitalia and Wizz Air.  France <-> France 763  -56 -7%  -42% Highest decrease for  Norway <-> Norway 662  +47 +8%  -32% domestic flows in Germany  Spain <-> Spain 584  +21 +4%  -53% (-53%) mainly due to light  Turkey <-> Turkey 577  -8 -1%  -31% aircraft and Eurowings.  Italy <-> Italy 436  +149 +52%  -47% High increase for the flow  United Kingdom <-> United Kingdom361  +54 +18%  -69% Germany-Spain (+68%)  Germany <-> Germany 262  -290 -53%  -79% mainly due to Lufthansa,  <-> Greece 187  +32 +21%  -38% Condor, TUI and Eurowings.  Germany <-> Spain 175  +71 +68%  -66%  <-> Sweden 153  -5 -3%  -69%

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 13 Country pairs (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest traffic situation

The busiest non-domestic flows were: • Germany-Spain (175 flights, +68% over 2 weeks). • Russia-Turkey (127, +35%). • Germany-UK (115, +25%). • UK-US (110, +16%). • France-Germany (103, -4%) • Germany-Italy (96, +16%).

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 14 Outside Europe

USA Bookings are gradually improving on rising vaccination rates and easing travel restrictions. US domestic recorded a decline of 31% (vs 2019) and international traffic recorded a decline of 42% (vs 2019) on 6 April. On 6 April, US airline passenger volumes were 41% below 2019 levels with domestic down 38% and international down 56%. The domestic US load factor has improved recently, averaging at 76% on 6 April vs 84% in same week of 2019. In March 2021, U.S. International air travel* fell 76% below 2019 levels

* Gateway-to-gateway passengers on U.S. and foreign scheduled and charter airlines and general aviation

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 15 Outside Europe

Middle East China Intra-Middle-East traffic recorded around 1,662 daily flights on On 5 April, domestic traffic recorded just below 13,100 flights 6 April (-40% compared to Feb 2020). (+10% compared to January 2020 levels). On 6 April, international traffic from and to Middle-East International flights and overflights are still suppressed, they recorded 1,507 flights (-50% compared to Feb 2020). were stable on previous weeks with 1,355 and 569 flights respectively (-67% and -64% vs 1 Jan 2020). Overflights have remained stable around 377 flights (-12% compared to Feb 2019) over the recent weeks. China domestic trips during the Qing Ming Festival holiday recovered to 94.5% of 2019 level.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 16 Airports (Daily Departure/Arrival flights)

Top 10 and latest news Increase in the ranking for Amsterdam, Rome and Milan. Rank evolution Top 10 Airports on Wed 07-04-2021 6 of top 10 airports showed a 2-digit increase over 2 weeks. over 2 D over 2 % over 2 Airport Dep/Arr Flights % vs 2019 weeks weeks weeks Highest increase for Rome  IGA Istanbul Airport 630  +64 +11%  -34% (+54%) mainly due to Alitalia  Paris/Charles-De-Gaulle 497  +34 +7%  -65% and domestic flows.  Amsterdam 484  +76 +19%  -67% High increase for Amsterdam  Frankfurt 477  +57 +14%  -69% (+19%) mainly due to KLM, Madrid/Barajas 407  +12 +3%  -66%  Transavia and various flows.  Istanbul/Sabiha Gokcen 388  +24 +7%  -36%  London/Heathrow 340  +47 +16%  -75% Increase for Frankfurt (+14%)  Leipzig/Halle 236  -3 -1%  -8% mainly due to Lufthansa and  Rome/Fiumicino 227  +80 +54%  -74% many flows, in particular to  Milan/Malpensa 226  +28 +14%  -61% Spain, France and Italy. Increase for Heathrow (+16%) mainly due to BA and flows to US, Germany and domestic.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 17 Airports Latest news

New international airport in Belgrade planned – next steps are a public consultation and then parliamentary debate. Riga Airport becomes the first airport in the Baltic States to adopt Airport Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM). Manchester Airport reports March passenger numbers down 89.8% year-on-year (domestic -69.4%, international -91.3%). Finavia reports March passenger numbers down 82.6% year-on-year (domestic -69.5%, international -88.6%).

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION Airports (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest operations

Increase for Palma over 2 weeks (+55%) due to flows to/from Germany and Spain. Large increase for Lisbon (+96%) due to many flows, mainly from TAP/Air Portugal. Large increase for Munich (+44%) mainly due to Lufthansa and flows to/from Spain. Traffic levels ranging from -97% (Gatwick) to -61% (Milan) compared to 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 19 Passengers

ACI recorded just below 918,000 passengers on 11 March 2021*, a loss of 4.8 million passengers compared to the equivalent day in 2019 (i.e. -84%). In 2020, ACI Europe reported passenger traffic fell by 70.4% while freight traffic decreased by 11.8% at European** airports.

* Latest available data from ACI **Russia included.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 20 Market Segments

The situation has evolved significantly around Easter. On 7 April 2021: Low-Cost increased the most, reaching -82% vs 2019. Traditional recorded a very slight increase reaching -67%.

All three other segments decreased compared to 2019: All-cargo decreased to -6%. Charter decreased to -14%. Business Aviation decreased to -30%.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 21 Vaccination updates

Inoculations against COVID-19 have started at the end of 2020 as shown with the daily number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people on the left hand-side graph. On the right hand-side one: , UK, , , and have reported that more than 25 doses per hundred people had been administered by 6 April 2021.

Graphs are showing data for the 41 Member and 2 Comprehensive Agreement States of EUROCONTROL.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 22 Economics

Jet fuel prices have started to rise since last Autumn, from around 100 cts/gal in October 2021 to 170 cts/gal early March. They stabilised at 156 cts/gal on 1 April 2021. Underlying reason for the rise in oil prices were related to constraints in supply (OPEC+ extended the existing oil production cuts through April 2021), combined with supply disruptions in the United States, and an attack of an oil terminal in Saudi Arabia.

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 23 To further assist you in your analysis, EUROCONTROL provides the following additional information on a daily basis (daily updates at approximately 7:00 CET for the first item and 12:00 CET for the second) and every Friday for the last item:

1. EUROCONTROL Daily Traffic Variation dashboard: www.eurocontrol.int/Economics/DailyTrafficVariation (or via the COVID-19 button on the top of our homepage www.eurocontrol.int) • This dashboard provides traffic for Day+1 for all European States; for the largest airports; for each Area Control Centre (ACC); and for the largest airline operators.

2. COVID Related-NOTAMS with Network Impact (i.e. summary of airspace restrictions): https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html • The Network Operations Portal (NOP) under “Latest News” is updated daily with a summary table of the most significant COVID-19 NOTAMs applicable at 12.00 UTC.

3. NOP Recovery Plan. https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html • This report, updated every Friday, is a special version of the Network operation Plan supporting aviation response to the COVID-19 Crisis. It is developed in cooperation with the operational stakeholders ensuring a rolling outlook. © EUROCONTROL - March 2021 This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without For more information please contact [email protected] prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. www.eurocontrol.int

SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 24