Agricultural Water demand Modeling using HEC HMS Soil Moisture Accounting for Ajay River basin, India
by
Dr Sujana Dhar Senior Project Scientist Deptartment of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Outline of Presentation
• Purpose of Work
• Chosen study area in Eastern India: Ajay River Basin
• Part I: The HEC HMS Model
• Part II: Hydrological Modeling of the Ajay River using HEC HMS Model
Purpose of Work
• Ajay River basin in Eastern India was selected and studied for assessment of water availability with emphasis on soil moisture accounting. A futuristic look into water availability for the year 2050 was attempted. In order for a successful analysis, a tools like Hydrological Engineering Centre Hydrological Modelling System (HEC HMS) were used.
• Once the hydrological simulation of the river basin was made, soil moisture accounting was given due priority, the futuristic prediction of water availability was achieved based on the projected rainfall data generated out of the regional climatic change models keeping primarily in view the land cover and land use pattern.
Introduction
• Ajay River is an important rivers in West Bengal. These natural resources of water support a large and vitally important variety of economic activities such as fishery, recreation and irrigation.
• The intensive use of land and water in the watersheds for purposes of agricultural irrigation, domestic, municipal and wildlife make the rivers susceptible to drying up/depletion of resources. Description 1/2
• The catchment located in the plateau of Santhal Parganas, lies between 23°27′ to 24°40′ N latitudes and between 86°15′ to 88°10′ E longitudes and is covered by Survey of India toposheets nos. 72L/6,7,8,10,11,12,15,16, 73I/13, 73M/ 1,2,5,6,7,10,11,14,15 and 79A/1 in the scale of 1:50,000 and 1:36,360.
• It spreads over Deoghar, Dumka, Giridhi, Munger & Jamui district of Bihar and the Burdwan and Birbhum districts of West Bengal. Description 2/2
• The total basin area of Ajay River is 6,888 square km. The basin area in Jharkhand is 3,554 square km, which is 51.6 percent of the total basin area. In West Bengal, the basin area is 3,334 square km, which is 48.4 percent of the total. The basin area in Jharkhand is hilly whereas that in West Bengal is mostly plain. About 7 percent of the total area is under forests and about 63 percent is under cultivation.
• The observed discharge for two gauge stations in Ajay River located at Jamtara, in Jharkhand and Natunhat in Barddhaman district in West Bengal was collected from CWC,Asansol.
Jamtara and Natunhat Subbasins
• The river basin between these two gauge stations represents the study area. The Jamtara station is located at latitude 23°58′18″ and longitude 86°54′25″ and the Natunhat station is located at latitude 23°32′44″ and longitude 87°54′25″.
• The basin area between these two stations is about 2906 square km. Average annual precipitation of the study area is about 120 cm. The elevation of the study area ranges from 232m to 48m. The major portion of the study area is under agriculture. Soils of the study area are red loamy soil, older alluvium and younger alluvium. The average slope varies from 1 in 700 to 1 in 2500.
Land Use of Ajay River at Natunhat
LANDUSE / LANDCOVER Birbhum District
Ajoy R.
Natunhat
Index Kharif Double Cropped River Riverine Sand Settlement Crops subject to flooding Water bodies State Highway District Roads Village Roads Village Boundary Jamtara Subbasin Part I: The HEC HMS Model Modeling
• In general a model can be defined as a deliberately simplified construct of nature erected for the purpose of understanding a phenomenon (Batchelor, 1994).
• A watershed hydrology model is an assemblage of component models corresponding to different components of hydrologic cycle (Singh, 1995). Introduction
• HEC HMS can simulate the rainfall-runoff at any point within a watershed when given the physical characteristics of the watershed.
• It is a tool for watershed management that can be developed to determine the effect on the magnitude, quantity and timing of runoff at points of interest. Results from the model can be used by a number of other programs to determine impact in areas such as water quality and flood damage.
• It has been developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, USA
Model Development
• Identify the decision required.
• Determine what information is required to make a decision.
• Identify methods that can provide the information, identify criteria for selecting one of the methods and select a method.
• Calibrate and verify the model.
• Apply the model.
• Process results to derive required information.
Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA)
• SMA within HEC HMS method allows for long-term continuous simulation of hydrologic processes that occur and change over time in a watershed.
• This is achieved by simulating the movement of precipitation through storage volumes that represent canopy interception, surface depressions, the soil profile and two groundwater layers. Soil Moisture Accounting within HEC HMS Model Input to Model
• Climatic Data
• Topographical information
• Soil type
• Land use pattern
• Hydrological information
Limitations of HEC HMS
• Availability of information for calibration or parameter estimation
• Appropriateness of the assumptions inherent in the model
Part II: Hydrological Modeling of the Ajay River using HEC HMS Model
Introduction
• The HEC HMS model was applied to the Ajay River basin spanning Bihar and West Bengal.
• The following slides illustrate the calibration and subsequent graphs generated over the Ajay River basin using the HEC HMS model. The subbasins that were chosen within the Ajay River basin were Jamtara in Jharkhand and Natunhat in Burdwan, West Bengal. HEC HMS Interface Model calibration
• Calibration is the process of adjusting the model parameter values until model simulated results match historical data
• Calibration allows us to correct errors and thus ensures our accuracy. A well calibrated model will give us a much better scope of properly utilizing the model
Calibration procedure Input parameters & agencies
• Precipitation in mm from IMD, Kolkata
• Discharge in cumecs from CWC, Asansol
• Soil data from NATMO,NBSSLUP thematic maps
• Topographical information from SOI, Kolkata
• Futuristic statistical precipitation data from IITM, Pune obtained from on Hadley centre for climate prediction and research, UK. Results of Calibration Coefficient of correlation
• The statistical goodness-of-fit used was the coefficient of correlation (R2), which explains how much the measured values are explained by the simulated values indicating the strength of correlation between the two variables.
• If the value for R2 is zero or close to zero, the model’s prediction capability is poor and unacceptable. If the values are close or equal to one, the model prediction is considered perfect. Jamtara calibration for the year 1998
HEC HMS Flow Calibration Year 1998
1400 1200 1000 800 CWC Gauge 600 HEC HMS 400 Flow in cms 200 0 6-Jun-98 26-Jun-98 16-Jul-98 5-Aug-98 25-Aug-98 14-Sep-98 4-Oct-98 24-Oct-98 Year Jamtara calibration for the year 1998
Flow Correlation for 1998
1400 1200 R2 = 0.7395 1000 800 600 400 200
Simulated HEC HMS Flow HMS Simulated HEC 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 CWC Gauge Observed Flow Jamtara calibration for the year 1999
HEC HMS Flow Calibration for year 1999
2500
2000
1500
1000 CWC Gauge
Flow in cms HEC HMS 500
0 14-Jun-99 3-Aug-99 22-Sep-99 Year Jamtara calibration for the year 1999
Flow Correlation for 1999
2500
2000 R2 = 0.5064 1500
1000
500
HEC HMS Simulated HMS Flow HEC 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 CWC Gauge Observed Flow Natunhat calibration for the year 1998
Simulated and Observed Hydrograph for year 1998
1400 1200 1000 800 HEC HMS Simulated 600 CWC Gauge Observed
Flow in cms in Flow 400 200 0 10-Jun-98 30-Jun-98 20-Jul-98 9-Aug-98 29-Aug-98 18-Sep-98 8-Oct-98 Date Natunhat calibration for the year 1998
Flow Correlation for 1998
1400 1200 2 1000 R = 0.7634 800 600 400
HEC HMS Simulated 200 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 CWC Gauge Observed Natunhat calibration for the year 1999
Simulated and Observed Hydrograph for 1999
2500
2000
1500 HEC HMS Simulated 1000 CWC Gauge Observed Flow in cms 500
0 13-Jun-99 3-Jul-99 23-Jul-99 12-Aug-99 1-Sep-99 21-Sep-99 11-Oct-99 Date Natunhat calibration for the year 1999
Flow Correlation for 1999
2500
2000 R2 = 0.535 1500
1000
500 HEC HMS Simulated 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 CWC Gauge Observed Natunhat calibration for the year 1998- 2000
Simulated and Observed Hydrograph
900 800 700 600 500 HEC HMS Simulated 400 CWC Gauge Observed 300 Flow in cms 200 100 0 Jan-98 Jul-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Mar-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Year Natunhat calibration for the year 1998- 2000 Flow Correlation for years 1998-2000
900 800 700 2 600 R = 0.9986 500 400 300 200 100
HEC HMS Simulated data 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 CWC Gauge Observed data Model validation
• Model validation was performed for the annual and monthly stream flows of the Jamtara & Natunhat sub-basins. The site was selected based on the availability of measured flow data.
• In the validation process, the model run was made with input parameters set during the calibration process without any change and the results were compared with observed data from the year 2000 were used for calibration. Results of Validation Study Flow validation over Jamtara for the year 2000 Flow validation over Jamtara for the year 2000
Flow Correlation for year 2000
3000 2500 R2 = 0.82 2000
1500
1000
500
HEC HMS Simulated HMS Flow HEC 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 CWC Gauge Observed Flow Flow validation over Natunhat for the year 2000 Simulated and Observed Hydrograph for year 2000
3500 3000 2500 2000 HEC HMS Simulated 1500 CWC Gauge Observed
Flow in cms 1000 500 0 11-Jun-00 1-Jul-00 21-Jul-00 10-Aug-00 30-Aug-00 19-Sep-00 9-Oct-00 Date Flow validation over Natunhat for the year 2000
Flow Correlation for year 2000
3000
2500 R2 = 0.8539 2000 1500
1000
500 HEC HMS Simulated 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 CWC Gauge Observed Projected Results for the years 2042- 2050 Projections for Jamtara during the years 2042-2050
Projected Evapotranspiration
60 50
40 canopy et 30 surface et 20 soil et 10
Evapotranspiration in mm Evapotranspiration 0 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Year Projections for Natunhat during the years 2042-2050
Projected Canopy Evapotranspiration
25
20
15 Canopy Evapotranspiration in mm 10
5
Canopy Evapotranspiration Evapotranspiration Canopy 0 2040 2045 2050 Year Projections for Natunhat during the years 2042-2050
Projected Soil Evapotranspiration
40 35 30 25 Soil 20 mm Evapotranspiration 15 10 5
Soil Evapotranspiration in Soil Evapotranspiration 0 2040 2045 2050 Year Projections for Jamtara during the years 2042-2050 Projected Hydrological Parameters
900 800 700 total pptn mm 600 total loss mm 500 total excess mm 400 300 total direct runoff mm Flow in mm 200 total discharge mm 100 0 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Year Projection for Natunhat during the year 2041
Projected Flow for year 2041
800 700 600 500 400 Projected Flow 300
Flow in cms 200 100 0 9/7/1941 9/21/1941 10/5/1941 6/15/1941 6/29/1941 7/13/1941 7/27/1941 8/10/1941 8/24/1941
Date Projection for Natunhat during the year 2043 Projected Flow year 2043
600 500 400 300 Projected Flow 200
Flow in cms 100 0 9/7/1943 9/21/1943 10/5/1943 6/15/1943 6/29/1943 7/13/1943 7/27/1943 8/10/1943 8/24/1943
Date Projection for Natunhat during the year 2045
Projected Flow year 2045
500 400 300 Projected Flow 200
Flow in cms 100 0 9/7/1945 6/15/1945 6/29/1945 7/13/1945 7/27/1945 8/10/1945 8/24/1945 9/21/1945 10/5/1945
Date Projection for Natunhat during the year 2047
Projected Flow year 2047
700 600 500 400 Projected Flow 300 200 Flow in cms 100 0 9/7/1947 6/15/1947 6/29/1947 7/13/1947 7/27/1947 8/10/1947 8/24/1947 9/21/1947 10/5/1947
Date Projection for Natunhat during the year 2049
Projected Flow year 2049
600 500 400 300 Projected Flow 200
Flow in cms 100 0 9/7/1949 6/15/1949 6/29/1949 7/13/1949 7/27/1949 8/10/1949 8/24/1949 9/21/1949 10/5/1949
Date Projection for Natunhat during the year 2050
Projected Flow year 2050
600 500 400 300 Projected Flow 200
Flow in cms 100 0 9/7/1950 6/15/1950 6/29/1950 7/13/1950 7/27/1950 8/10/1950 8/24/1950 9/21/1950 10/5/1950
Date Projection for Natunhat during the years 2042-2050
Projected Peak Discharge
350 300 250 200 Peak Discharge 150 100 50
Projected Peak Discharge 0 2040 2045 2050 Year Observations
• It was observed that precipitation, discharge, excess and direct runoff decrease while losses increase over the mentioned time frame.
• Soil parameters such as canopy evapotranspiration are seen to increase. The soil evapotranspiration and surface evapotranspiration are seen to display a decreasing trend from the year 2041-2050.
Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat 1/2
• The runoff simulated for the current climate year 2000, was compared with results for the warmer climate, simulated towards the year 2050.
• In the following figs we see a comparison of projected discharge of years 2041,43,45,47 and 2049 with respect to baseline year 2000 (wherein no climate change has occurred and is under present precipitation regime). Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat Projected Discharge for Year 2041 compared to Year 2000
3500 3000 2500 2000 Year 2000
cms 1500 Year 2041 1000 500 0 Projectec Discharge in 5th Oct 1st July 2nd Aug 3rd Sept3rd 17th July 18th Aug 19th Sept 15th June Month Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat Projected Discharge for Year 2043 compared to Year 2000
3500 3000 2500 2000 Year 2000
cms 1500 Year 2043 1000 500 0 Projected Discharge in 5th Oct 1st July 2nd Aug 3rd Sept3rd 17th July 18th Aug 19th Sept 15th June Month Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat
Projected Discharge for Year 2045 compared to Year 2000
3500 3000 2500 2000 Year 2000
cms 1500 Year 2045 1000 500 0 Projected Discharge in 5th Oct 1st July 2nd Aug 3rd Sept3rd 17th July 18th Aug 19th Sept 15th June Month Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat
Projected Discharge in Year 2047 compared to Year 2000
3500 3000 2500 2000 Year 2000
cms 1500 Year 2047 1000 500 0 Projected Discharge in 5th Oct 1st July 2nd Aug 3rd Sept3rd 17th July 18th Aug 19th Sept 15th June Month Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat Projected Discharge in Year 2049 compared to Year 2000
3500 3000 2500 2000 Year 2000
cms 1500 Year 2049 1000 500 0 Projected Discharge in 5th Oct 1st July 2nd Aug 3rd Sept3rd 17th July 18th Aug 19th Sept 15th June Month Projected discharge comparison at Natunhat 2/2 • Here the least effect of climate change is seen in year 2047 (37.50% less discharge as compared to discharge for year 2000)
• In 2043 we see the maximum effect of climate change where projected discharge is 82.24% less than baseline discharge
• This may be attributed to the effects of climate change such as shifts in spatial rainfall patterns, increase in average annual temperature and less annual precipitation per basin average area. Conclusion of part II
• A detailed study involving the application of a very well calibrated HEC HMS model (R2 = 0.85) was carried out over the Ajay River spanning Jharkhand and West Bengal. The sub basins chosen for the work were Jamtara sub basin (Jharkhand) and Natunhat sub basin (West Bengal).
• Projected data obtained from Hadley Centre, UK through IITM, Pune was used to obtain projected parameters for future water availability of the Ajay River over the chosen area from the year 2041-2050.
Conclusion of part II
• It was observed that precipitation, discharge, excess and direct runoff decrease while losses increase over the mentioned time frame.
• Soil parameters such as canopy evapotranspiration are seen to increase. The soil evapotranspiration and surface evapotranspiration are seen to display a decreasing trend from the year 2041-2050.
Selected References 1/2
• Arnold, J. G., R. Srinivason, R. R. Muttiah and J. R. Williams (1998) "Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I : Model Development." Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34(1): 73-89.
• Arnold, J. G., Williams, J. R., Srinivasan, R. and King, K. W (1994) Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Use's Manual, USDA, Agriculture Research Service, Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, 808 East Blackland Road Temple, TX 76502.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1996b) Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses: Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York. Selected References 2/2
• Roy P K and Mazumdar A (2005) A comparative study of stream flow between lumped and distributed model of Ajoy river basin. Proc. National Seminar on Survey, Conservation & Utilization of Water Resources, Jan 2005.
• Tripathi M P; Panda R K and Raghuwanshi N S (1999a) Runoff estimation from a small watershed using SWAT model. Hydrological Modelling, Proceeding of International Conference on Water, Environment, Ecology, Socio-Economics and Health Engineering, held at Seoul, Korea from October 18 to 21, 1999, pp 143–152
• USACE (2000a) Hydrologic Modeling System HEC-HMS. Technical Reference Manual, US Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center Publications International Publications 1/4
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2009) Hydrological Modeling of the Kangsabati River under Changed Climate Scenario: Case Study in India, Hydrological Processes, John Wiley & Sons. Accepted for publication.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2008) Hydrological Modeling of Natunhat Watershed , West Bengal of the Ajay River Catchment under Changed Climate Scenario , International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics, Princeton University, USA. Accepted for publication.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar (2009). Impacts of Climate Change under the Threat of Global Warming for an Agricultural Watershed of the Kangsabati River. Proc. of EnviroEnergy 2009 & World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology.
International Publications 2/4
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar (2009). Climate Change and its impact on the Kangsabati Basin using the SWAT Model. Proc. of Water, Energy, Environment and Society. New Delhi 2009
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar (2009). Asssessment of the Impacts of Climate Change over the Kangsabati River using Hydrological Modeling. Proc. Climate Change Conference.Pune 2009
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar (2008). Simulation of the SMA Parameters for the Ajay River for Future Water Availability Scenario. Proc. International Convention On Water Resources Development And Management. Pilani 2008
International Publications 3/4
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2008) Climate Change effects on the Jamtara Watershed of the Ajay River with Special Emphasis on Soil Moisture Parameters, Proc. International Conference on water Crisis and opportunities, NEERI,Nagpur
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2007) Cartography for Natural Resources Management of the Piyali River in Sundarbans of West Bengal, Proc. XXVII INCA International Congress, Visakapatnam.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2007) Investigation and Remedial Measures for Salt Water Intrusion due to Global Climate Change: A Case Study in Sundarbans. Proc. International Groundwater Conference, Jaipur.
International Publications 4/4
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2006)Cartography Application for Evaluation of Water Resources of a Watershed in Eastern India, Proc. XXI INCA International Congress, New Delhi.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2006) An Assessment of the Future Water Availability of Ajoy River Catchment with Special Emphasis on Soil Moisture Accounting, Proc. Map India 2006, New Delhi.
National Publications
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2007) Hydrological Modelling of Jamtara Watershed, West Bengal of the Ajoy River Catchment through Soil Moisture accounting Parameters, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, New Delhi. Accepted for publication
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2006) Water Resources Availability Scenario of an Agricultural Watershed under the Threat of Climate Change. Proc. Water Resources - Future Options 2006, Central Board of Irrigation and Power, Jaipur, Rajasthan.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar (2008). Impacts of Climate Change over the Water Resources of the Kangsabati River using Hydrological Modeling. Proc. of Integrated Water and Wastewater Management. Kokata 2008
List of Publications: Communicated to Journals 1/3
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2009) Agricultural Water Resources assessment of the Kangsabati River Basin under the threat of Climate Change. Irrigation and Drainage Journal, Wiley InterScience, in communication.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2009) Field Investigation into the Salinity Condition of the Piyali River of the Sundarbans. River Research & Applications, John Wiley & Sons in communication.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2009) Hydrological Modeling of the Ajay River Basin in West Bengal through Soil Moisture Accounting. River Research & Applications, John Wiley & Sons in communication. List of Publications: Communicated to Journals 2/3
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2009) Comparison of HEC HMS- SMA and SWAT Model: Case Study of the Kangsabati River Basin over West Bengal. Journal of Hydroinformatics, IWA Publishers, in communication.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2009) Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change for the Ajay River Basin using Hydroinformatics. Hydrological Processes, John Wiley & Sons, in communication.
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar., (2008) Calibration of the SWAT Model to the Kangsabati River: Case Study India. Journal of Hydroinformatics, IWA Publishers, in communication
List of Publications: Communicated to Journals 3/3
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2007) Hydrologic Modeling of HEC HMS over the Ajoy River Catchment, Jamtara Watershed, Jharkhand, Journal of Spatial Hydrology, USA, in communication
• Sujana Dhar and Asis Mazumdar.,(2007) Controlling Salt Water Intrusion into the Piyali River: Case Study in the Sundarbans of India , International Journal of Water, in communication Thank you