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SPECIAL ANALYSIS NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL DEBATE TOPIC 1964-65 WHAT POLICY FOR CONTROL Of \WEAPONS SYSTEMS WOULD BEST INSURE THE PROSPECTS FOR WORLD PEACE? PUBLISHED AND DISTRIBUTED BY THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE g_g;-J��,�� 1012 FOURTEENTH STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON, D. C., 20005 EXECUTIVE 3·8205 THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH, established in 1943, is o nonpartisan research and educational organization which studies notional policy problems. Institute publications toke two major forms: 1. LEGISLATIVE AND SPECIAL ANALYSES - factual analyses of current legislative proposals and other public policy issues before the Congress prepared with the help of recognized experts in the academic world and in the fields of low and government. A typical analysis features: (1) pertinent background, (2) o digest of significant elements, and (3) o discussion, pro and con, of the issues. The reports reflect no policy position in favor of or against specific proposals. 2. LONG-RANGE STUDIES - basic studies of major notional problems of significance for public policy. The Institute, with the counsel of its Advisory Boord, utilizes the services of competent scholars, but the opinions expressed ore those of the authors and represent no policy position on the port of the Institute. ADVISORY BOARD Poul W. McCracken, Chairman Professor, School of Business Administration, University of Mi chi gon Kori Brandt Stanley Parry Director Professor, Deportment Food Research Institute of Politicol Science Stanford University University of Notre Dome Milton Friedman Roscoe Pound Poul S. Russell Distinguished Professor Emeritus Service Professor of Economics Harvard University University of Chicago E. Blythe Stoson Gottfried Hoberler Deon Emeritus, Low School Golen L. -
Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions
WORKING PAPER SERIES Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economic Models: Implications for Policy Decisions James B. Bullard Alison Butler Working Paper 1991-002B http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1991/91-002.pdf PUBLISHED: Economic Journal, July 1993. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Research Division 411 Locust Street St. Louis, MO 63102 ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Photo courtesy of The Gateway Arch, St. Louis, MO. www.gatewayarch.com NONLINEARITY AND CHAOS IN ECONOMIC MODELS: IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY DECISIONS James Bullard Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Alison Butler Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis August 1991 Revised July 1992 Abstract. This survey paper discusses the policy implications that can be expected from the recent research on nonlinearity and chaos in economic models. Expected policy implications are interpreted as a driving force behind the recent proliferation of research in this area. In general, it appears that no new justification for policy intervention is developed in models of endogenous fluctuations, although this conclusion depends in part on the definition of equilibrium. When justified, however, policy tends to be very effective in these models. -
Lecture Notes General Equilibrium Theory: Ss205
LECTURE NOTES GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM THEORY: SS205 FEDERICO ECHENIQUE CALTECH 1 2 Contents 0. Disclaimer 4 1. Preliminary definitions 5 1.1. Binary relations 5 1.2. Preferences in Euclidean space 5 2. Consumer Theory 6 2.1. Digression: upper hemi continuity 7 2.2. Properties of demand 7 3. Economies 8 3.1. Exchange economies 8 3.2. Economies with production 11 4. Welfare Theorems 13 4.1. First Welfare Theorem 13 4.2. Second Welfare Theorem 14 5. Scitovsky Contours and cost-benefit analysis 20 6. Excess demand functions 22 6.1. Notation 22 6.2. Aggregate excess demand in an exchange economy 22 6.3. Aggregate excess demand 25 7. Existence of competitive equilibria 26 7.1. The Negishi approach 28 8. Uniqueness 32 9. Representative Consumer 34 9.1. Samuelsonian Aggregation 37 9.2. Eisenberg's Theorem 39 10. Determinacy 39 GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM THEORY 3 10.1. Digression: Implicit Function Theorem 40 10.2. Regular and Critical Economies 41 10.3. Digression: Measure Zero Sets and Transversality 44 10.4. Genericity of regular economies 45 11. Observable Consequences of Competitive Equilibrium 46 11.1. Digression on Afriat's Theorem 46 11.2. Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu Theorem: Anything goes 47 11.3. Brown and Matzkin: Testable Restrictions On Competitve Equilibrium 48 12. The Core 49 12.1. Pareto Optimality, The Core and Walrasian Equiilbria 51 12.2. Debreu-Scarf Core Convergence Theorem 51 13. Partial equilibrium 58 13.1. Aggregate demand and welfare 60 13.2. Production 61 13.3. Public goods 62 13.4. Lindahl equilibrium 63 14. -
Kenneth J. Arrow [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B
Kenneth J. Arrow [Ideological Profiles of the Economics Laureates] Daniel B. Klein Econ Journal Watch 10(3), September 2013: 268-281 Abstract Kenneth J. Arrow is among the 71 individuals who were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel between 1969 and 2012. This ideological profile is part of the project called “The Ideological Migration of the Economics Laureates,” which fills the September 2013 issue of Econ Journal Watch. Keywords Classical liberalism, economists, Nobel Prize in economics, ideology, ideological migration, intellectual biography. JEL classification A11, A13, B2, B3 Link to this document http://econjwatch.org/file_download/715/ArrowIPEL.pdf ECON JOURNAL WATCH Kenneth J. Arrow by Daniel B. Klein Ross Starr begins his article on Kenneth Arrow (1921–) in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics by saying that he “is a legendary figure, with an enormous range of contributions to 20th-century economics…. His impact is suggested by the number of major ideas that bear his name: Arrow’s Theorem, the Arrow- Debreu model, the Arrow-Pratt index of risk aversion, and Arrow securities” (Starr 2008). Besides the four areas alluded to in the quotation from Starr, Arrow has been a leader in the economics of information. In 1972, at the age of 51 (still the youngest ever), Arrow shared the Nobel Prize in economics with John Hicks for their contributions to general economic equilibrium theory and welfare theory. But if the Nobel economics prize were given for specific accomplishments, and an individual could win repeatedly, Arrow would surely have several. It has been shown that Arrow is the economics laureate who has been most cited within the Nobel award lectures of the economics laureates (Skarbek 2009). -
Chapter 3 the Basic OLG Model: Diamond
Chapter 3 The basic OLG model: Diamond There exists two main analytical frameworks for analyzing the basic intertem- poral choice, consumption versus saving, and the dynamic implications of this choice: overlapping-generations (OLG) models and representative agent models. In the first type of models the focus is on (a) the interaction between different generations alive at the same time, and (b) the never-ending entrance of new generations and thereby new decision makers. In the second type of models the household sector is modelled as consisting of a finite number of infinitely-lived dynasties. One interpretation is that the parents take the utility of their descen- dants into account by leaving bequests and so on forward through a chain of intergenerational links. This approach, which is also called the Ramsey approach (after the British mathematician and economist Frank Ramsey, 1903-1930), will be described in Chapter 8 (discrete time) and Chapter 10 (continuous time). In the present chapter we introduce the OLG approach which has shown its usefulness for analysis of many issues such as: public debt, taxation of capital income, financing of social security (pensions), design of educational systems, non-neutrality of money, and the possibility of speculative bubbles. We will focus on what is known as Diamond’sOLG model1 after the American economist and Nobel Prize laureate Peter A. Diamond (1940-). Among the strengths of the model are: The life-cycle aspect of human behavior is taken into account. Although the • economy is infinitely-lived, the individual agents are not. During lifetime one’s educational level, working capacity, income, and needs change and this is reflected in the individual labor supply and saving behavior. -
Date: To: September 22, 1 997 Mr Ian Johnston©
22-SEP-1997 16:36 NOBELSTIFTELSEN 4& 8 6603847 SID 01 NOBELSTIFTELSEN The Nobel Foundation TELEFAX Date: September 22, 1 997 To: Mr Ian Johnston© Company: Executive Office of the Secretary-General Fax no: 0091-2129633511 From: The Nobel Foundation Total number of pages: olO MESSAGE DearMrJohnstone, With reference to your fax and to our telephone conversation, I am enclosing the address list of all Nobel Prize laureates. Yours sincerely, Ingr BergstrSm Mailing address: Bos StU S-102 45 Stockholm. Sweden Strat itddrtSMi Suircfatan 14 Teleptelrtts: (-MB S) 663 » 20 Fsuc (*-«>!) «W Jg 47 22-SEP-1997 16:36 NOBELSTIFTELSEN 46 B S603847 SID 02 22-SEP-1997 16:35 NOBELSTIFTELSEN 46 8 6603847 SID 03 Professor Willis E, Lamb Jr Prof. Aleksandre M. Prokhorov Dr. Leo EsaJki 848 North Norris Avenue Russian Academy of Sciences University of Tsukuba TUCSON, AZ 857 19 Leninskii Prospect 14 Tsukuba USA MSOCOWV71 Ibaraki Ru s s I a 305 Japan 59* c>io Dr. Tsung Dao Lee Professor Hans A. Bethe Professor Antony Hewlsh Department of Physics Cornell University Cavendish Laboratory Columbia University ITHACA, NY 14853 University of Cambridge 538 West I20th Street USA CAMBRIDGE CB3 OHE NEW YORK, NY 10027 England USA S96 014 S ' Dr. Chen Ning Yang Professor Murray Gell-Mann ^ Professor Aage Bohr The Institute for Department of Physics Niels Bohr Institutet Theoretical Physics California Institute of Technology Blegdamsvej 17 State University of New York PASADENA, CA91125 DK-2100 KOPENHAMN 0 STONY BROOK, NY 11794 USA D anni ark USA 595 600 613 Professor Owen Chamberlain Professor Louis Neel ' Professor Ben Mottelson 6068 Margarldo Drive Membre de rinstitute Nordita OAKLAND, CA 946 IS 15 Rue Marcel-Allegot Blegdamsvej 17 USA F-92190 MEUDON-BELLEVUE DK-2100 KOPENHAMN 0 Frankrike D an m ar k 599 615 Professor Donald A. -
Chapter 4 the Overlapping Generations (OG) Model
Chapter 4 The overlapping generations (OG) model 4.1 The model Now we will briefly discuss a macroeconomic model which has most of the important features of the RA model, but one - people die. This small con- cession to reality will have a big impact on implications. Recall that the RA model had a few special characteristics: 1. An unique equilibrium exists. 2. The economy follows a deterministic path. 3. The equilibrium is Pareto efficient. The overlapping generations model will not always have these characteristics. So my presentation of this model will have two basic goals: to outline a model that appears frequency in the literature, and to use the model to illustrate some features that appear in other models and that some macroeconomists think are important to understanding business cycles. 1 2 CHAPTER 4. THE OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS (OG) MODEL 4.1.1 The model Time, information, and demography Discrete, indexed by t. In each period, one worker is born. The worker lives two periods, so there is always one young worker and one old worker. We’re going to assume for the time being that workers have perfect foresight, so we’ll dispense with the Et’s. Workers Each worker is identified with the period of her birth - we’ll call the worker born in period t “worker t”. Let c1,t be worker t’s consumption when young, and let c2,t+1 be her consumption when old. She only cares about her own consumption. Her utility is: Ut = u(c1,t) + βu(c2,t+1) (4.1) The worker is born with no capital or bond holdings. -
Measuring Regulatory Performance
Measuring Regulatory Performance THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REGULATORY POLICY: A LITERATURE REVIEW OF QUANTITATIVE EVIDENCE By David Parker and Colin Kirkpatrick Expert Paper No. 3, August 2012 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF REGULATORY POLICY: A LITERATURE REVIEW OF QUANTITATIVE EVIDENCE This study provides a critical literature review of the theory and quantitative evidence of the impact of regulatory policy. The theory is addressed through a causal chain analysis which connects regulatory policy through the “better regulation” agenda to economic outcomes. The literature review is intended to provide a reasonably representative sample of studies on regulatory policy and governance in general; administrative simplification and reducing regulatory burdens; ex ante and ex post analyses of regulations; consultation, transparency and accountability; and regulatory institutions. The main policy lessons are highlighted, alongside discussion of the limitations of the literature in terms of content and coverage. © OECD (2012). All rights reserved. 3 FOREWORD OECD countries require better information about where investments in programs to improve regulations should be focused to pay growth and welfare dividends. This is necessary to target scarce resources for reform efforts, and also to communicate progress and generate the political support needed for implementing regulatory policy reforms. The OECD work on Measuring Regulatory Performance is intended to assist countries with the task of identifying this information through the development of measurement frameworks and the collection and interpretation of salient data (www.oecd.org/regreform/measuringperformance). The OECD is developing a framework for Regulatory Policy Evaluation to help countries evaluate the design and implementation of their regulatory policy against the achievement of strategic regulatory objectives (OECD, forthcoming). -
Dodging a Draft: Gary Becker's Lost Paper on Conscription
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 14284 Dodging a Draft: Gary Becker’s Lost Paper on Conscription Michael Gibbs Timothy Perri APRIL 2021 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 14284 Dodging a Draft: Gary Becker’s Lost Paper on Conscription Michael Gibbs University of Chicago Booth School of Business and IZA Timothy Perri Appalachian State University APRIL 2021 Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world’s largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. ISSN: 2365-9793 IZA – Institute of Labor Economics Schaumburg-Lippe-Straße 5–9 Phone: +49-228-3894-0 53113 Bonn, Germany Email: [email protected] www.iza.org IZA DP No. 14284 APRIL 2021 ABSTRACT Dodging a Draft: Gary Becker’s Lost Paper on Conscription* Gary Becker wrote what may be the first economic analysis of conscription. -
Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care
TH1E AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW VOLUME LIII DECEMBER 1963 NUMBER 5 UNCERTAINTY AND THE WELFARE ECONOMICS OF MEDICAL CARE By KENNETH J. ARROW* I. Introduction:Scope and Method This paper is an exploratoryand tentativestudy of the specific differentiaof medical care as the object of normativeeconomics. It is contendedhere, on the basis of comparisonof obviouscharacteris- tics of the medical-careindustry with the normsof welfareeconomics, that the special economicproblems of medicalcare can be explained as adaptationsto the existenceof uncertaintyin the incidenceof dis- ease and in theefficacy of treatment. It shouldbe notedthat the subjectis the medical-careindustry, not health.The causal factorsin health are many,and the provisionof medical care is only one. Particularlyat low levels of income,other commoditiessuch as nutrition,shelter, clothing, and sanitationmay be much more significant.It is the complexof servicesthat center about the physician,private and grouppractice, hospitals, and public health,which I proposeto discuss. The focus of discussionwill be on the way the operationof the medical-careindustry and the efficacywith which it satisfiesthe needs of societydiffer from a norm,if at all. The "norm"that the econo- mistusually uses forthe purposes of such comparisonsis theoperation of a competitivemodel, that is, the flowsof servicesthat would be * The author is professorof economicsat StanfordUniversity. He wishes to expresshis thanks for useful commentsto F. Bator, R. Dorfman,V. Fuchs, Dr. S. Gilson, R. Kessel, S. Mushkin,and C. -
Shocks, Risks and Global Value Chains: Insights from the OECD METRO Model
Shocks, risks and global value chains: insights from the OECD METRO model June 2020 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. 2 │ Shocks, risks and global value chains: insights from the OECD METRO model Shocks, risks and global value chains: insights from the OECD METRO model Executive summary The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to renewed discussions on the benefits and costs of global value chains (GVCs), and in particular on whether GVCs increase risks and vulnerabilities to shocks. Questions are being raised about whether the gains from deepening and expanding international specialisation in GVCs are worth the associated risks, and whether more localised production would provide greater security against disruptions that can lead to shortages in supply and uncertainty for consumers and businesses. To serve as a starting point for an informed conversation around these questions, this note presents the results of a set of economic model simulations, using the OECD’s trade model, METRO1. We explore two stylised versions of the global economy, one with production fragmentation in GVCs, much as we see today, and another where production is more localised and businesses and consumers rely less on foreign suppliers. Unforeseeable shocks can occur in both economic regimes, both domestically or elsewhere in the world. The question is which version of the global economy offers better performance, in terms of both the level and the stability of economic activity in the face of shocks? The two policy regimes and a set of stylised shocks to simulate systemic risks are used to compare both efficiency and exposure to risk outcomes. -
EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE Research DEPARTMENT of ECONOMICS Institute University European Institute
Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE Cadmus, on An earlier version o fpaperthis was given at a seminar the at University European Mario Nuti and Felix The Fitzroy. disclaimer usual applies. seminar. Weseminar. would acknowledge particularly the helpful that comments advice constructive the made commentsand at for grateful We ofFlorence,are Institute, Italy. ** University of Edinburgh, European University Institute * University o f Edinburgh University BADIA FIESOLANA, SAN DOMENICO (F I) Access DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS European Open RKING PAPER No. ^fESIGHT, NON-LINEARITY § f by H yperinflation * * Donaldand A.R. GEORGE** Author(s). Available The 2020. © in Library * 87/283 87/283 EUI the by produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. Cadmus, on University Access (C) Leslie T. Oxley Donald and A.R. George. European Open reproduced reproduced in any form without No No part of this paper be may Printed in Italy in April 1987 European UniversityEuropean Institute permission of the authors. - 50016 San Domenico - Domenico (FSan 50016 i) - All rights reserved. Author(s). Available Badia Badia Fiesolana The 2020. © Ita ly in Library EUI the by produced version Digitised 1 Repository. Introduction Research Traditionally, attempts to model hyperinflationary processes have followed one of two routes. Cagan (1956) concentrated on Institute hyperinflation within a fixed output environment. Later writers for example Sargent (1977) Sargent & Wallace (1973) and Flood and University Garber (1980) retained this assumption but extended the basic model by incorporating rational expectations. The second route relates to models which consider inflation European within a growing economy. Here the basic formulation is due to Institute.