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Stainless Steel Flat Products Monitor Stainless Steel Flat Products Monitor Panos Kotseras Principal Analyst +44 20 7903 2187 [email protected] 14 JANUARY 2021 SUMMARY Stainless prices surge Stainless prices rose strongly worldwide on the back of recovering demand, supply chain restocking and soaring raw material costs. Lead times have extended significantly, with mills having the ability to pass on higher costs, and more, to distributors and consumers. Despite downside risks, there is growing optimism about a faster recovery in demand across regions. ©2021 CRU International Ltd | All rights reserved Talk to CRU You can’t beat a one-on-one conversation. That’s why we invite you to talk to us. You can contact CRU’s analysts, any time, to discuss issues of particular relevance to you. Our expertise and our independence make CRU one of the most valuable partners in your business. We help customers make important business decisions. Invite us to meet your colleagues and present our view of the market. We welcome our view being challenged and by challenging your view we can help you towards a deeper understanding of what’s really happening in the market and how it will affect you. Make the most of your relationship with us. Call or email us to arrange a private briefing for your colleagues. CRU – big enough to deliver a high quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers. crugroup.com Editor Panos Kotseras Principal Analyst, CRU London t +44 20 7903 2187 e [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS CRU London CRU London CRU London CRU London CRU Mumbai Chris Houlden Tomislav Bucic Nikhil Shah George Pearson Puneet Paliwal Research Manager Chrome Analyst Principal Analyst Analyst Senior Analyst t +44 20 7903 2115 t +44 20 7903 2084 t +44 20 7903 2212 t +44 207 903 2233 t +91 22 4504 5709 e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] CRU Singapore CRU Shanghai CRU Shanghai CRU Shanghai CRU Shanghai Paul Butterworth Nikki Ni Angel Zheng Della Fu Ellie Wang Research Manager Analyst Analyst Price Analyst Senior Analyst t +65 67213141 t +86 10 6510 2206 t +86 21 6028 6814 t +86 21 6028 6814 t +86 21 6028 6819 e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] CRU Pittsburgh Stainless Steel Ryan McKinley Senior Analyst Flat Products t +1 724 759 7873 Monitor and Prices e [email protected] This report is supplied on a private and confidential basis to the customer. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other company, organisation or individual, nor be photocopied or otherwise reproduced in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of CRU International This report is delivered on the understanding that CRU International’s liability is limited to the provision of the professional services outlined in the contract for this report. Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, CRU International cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions or that the proposed investment will be successful. If the client uses our work in any information Memorandum or similar document for the purpose of raising funds, CRU International accepts no liability to third parties however arising and without limitation. © CRU International Ltd. 2021. All rights reserved Stainless Steel Flat Products Monitor 14 JANUARY 2021 ► GLOBAL Stainless prices surge worldwide European CR 304 prices soared by €250 /t m/m at end-December, to €2,300 /t, on the back of recovering demand, supply chain restocking and restricted imports. While signs of strength Panos Kotseras started to emerge in November, the market moved very quickly in December and the Principal Analyst momentum has continued into January. Lead times have extended to June and mills have gained significant negotiating power. In the USA, mills announced a $3−4 ¢/lb base price increase that will be realised within the next two months. Strong buying activity, improved underlying demand, low imports and the announcement that ATI will exit the stainless business in mid-2021 were the key factors behind the base price rise. Lead times for commodity grades are currently at 12−14 weeks. Chinese CR 304 prices rebounded m/m at end-December, to RMB14,500 /t, following consistent declines in the September−November period. However, ferritic prices have staged a sustained recovery in recent months. Robust output of consumer products, a sharp recovery in auto production and higher FeCr costs led to an impressive rally in CR 430 prices that hit RMB10,000 /t at end-December, a nine-year high. While total Chinese crude stainless production has remained relatively stable in recent months, the share of ferritics has risen. Outlook: Global stainless prices will be firm The positive stainless price momentum across all markets will continue. While nickel is overpriced and is posing downside risks to stainless prices, there are no signs of a correction in the coming weeks as investors’ activity will keep prices around current levels. Other key stainless raw material prices, including FeCr and scrap, are also on the rise, providing further support to stainless prices. Despite tightening lockdowns in key markets, demand from major end-use segments will be strong that, coupled with restocking activity, will lead to higher all- in prices in Europe and the USA. We also expect Chinese prices will remain firm, in part due to solid manufacturing activity and raw material price support. Figure 1: European stainless prices approach US levels for the first time since 2018 LHS: transaction prices for 304-grade 2mm/2b stainless steel sheet, $/t RHS: LME nickel price, $/t 3,500 25,000 3,000 20,000 2,500 15,000 2,000 10,000 Germany USA 1,500 5,000 China trader LME nickel cash price (RHS) 1,000 0 DATA: CRU, LME; Note: China trader price is for coil and excludes 13% VAT crugroup.com PAGE 4 OF 16 Stainless Steel Flat Products Monitor 14 JANUARY 2021 ► REGIONAL TRANSACTION PRICES Table 1: Regional transaction prices Cold-rolled stainless steel sheet (end-December prices) 1 Grade 304, 2mm Grade 316, 2mm Grade 430, 2mm Grade 409, 2mm Local USD Local USD Local USD Local USD Europe 2 Derived base 784 975 800 Germany * EUR/t 2,300 2,799 3,150 3,834 1,377 1,676 Alloy 1,516 2,175 577 Derived base 793 977 800 France * EUR/t 2,300 2,799 3,150 3,834 1,386 1,687 Alloy 1,507 2,173 586 Derived base 773 945 730 UK GBP/t 2,140 2,878 2,905 3,907 1,250 1,681 Alloy 1,367 1,960 520 Derived base 733 941 780 Italy * EUR/t 2,300 2,799 3,150 3,834 1,402 1,706 Alloy 1,567 2,209 622 Derived base 786 1,006 790 Spain * EUR/t 2,300 2,799 3,150 3,834 1,348 1,641 Alloy 1,514 2,144 558 USA 3 Base USD/CWT 59.00 75.00 60.00 62.50 Producer 2,597 2,862 3,408 3,757 1,613 1,778 1,566 1,726 Alloy c/lb 70.83 95.42 20.66 15.81 Import Base USD/CWT 74.00 90.00 75.00 77.00 East coast 2,897 3,193 3,708 4,088 1,913 2,109 1,856 2,046 Alloy c/lb 70.83 95.42 20.66 15.81 Base USD/CWT 127.13 182.42 96.57 100.07 West coast 2,543 2,803 3,648 4,022 1,931 2,129 2,001 2,206 Alloy c/lb - - - - Asia Taiw an (China) trader 10 2.0mm NTD/t 58,500 1,953 83,500 2,788 34,500 1,152 Taiw an (China) export 4 2.0mm USD/t 2,000 1,200 Japan JPY/kg 345 3,325 495 4,770 240 2,313 China export 4 USD/t 1,930 1,980 2,660 2,710 1,195 1,245 China 2.0mm 15,150 2,050 22,150 2,997 9,800 1,326 Producer 5 RMB/t 0.5mm 15,950 2,158 10,600 1,434 Trader 6 2.0mm RMB/t 14,500 1,962 21,500 2,909 10,000 1,353 9,900 1,339 Hot-rolled stainless steel sheet (end-December prices) 1 Quarto plate/ Quarto plate/ Cut-to-length/ Cut-to-length/ PMP grade 304 7 PMP grade 316 7,8 CMP grade 304 9 CMP grade 316 9 Local USD Local USD Local USD Local USD Europe 2 Derived base 600 800 664 855 Germany * EUR/t 2,116 2,575 2,975 3,621 2,180 2,653 3,030 3,688 Alloy 1,516 2,175 1,516 2,175 Derived base 590 790 673 857 France * EUR/t 2,097 2,552 2,963 3,606 2,180 2,653 3,030 3,688 Alloy 1,507 2,173 1,507 2,173 Derived base 545 725 643 810 UK * GBP/t 1,912 2,572 2,685 3,611 2,010 2,703 2,770 3,725 Alloy 1,367 1,960 1,367 1,960 Derived base 590 790 613 821 Italy * EUR/t 2,157 2,625 2,999 3,650 2,180 2,653 3,030 3,688 Alloy 1,567 2,209 1,567 2,209 Derived base 590 790 666 886 Spain * EUR/t 2,104 2,561 2,934 3,571 2,180 2,653 3,030 3,688 Alloy 1,514 2,144 1,514 2,144 USA 3 Base USD/CWT 108.04 144.04 47.79 63.29 Producer 3,577 3,943 4,789 5,279 2,372 2,615 3,174 3,499 Alloy c/lb 70.83 95.42 70.83 95.42 Import Base USD/CWT 103.04 140.04 48.79 67.29 East coast 3,477 3,833 4,709 5,191 2,392 2,637 3,254 3,587 Alloy c/lb 70.83 95.42 70.83 95.42 Base USD/CWT 154.53 224.53 114.14 144.14 West coast 3,091 3,407 4,491 4,950 2,283 2,516 2,883 3,178 Alloy c/lb - - - - Asia Japan JPY/kg 490 4,722 640 6,167 325 3,132 475 4,577 China export 4 USD/t 2,150 3,385 1,790 1,840 2,550 2,600 USD exchange rates Data: CRU, Ningbo Baoxin, Zhangjiagang Posco Stainless Steel Co., industry sources.
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