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Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons In many ways Atlanta overachieved in ’17! Super Bowl losers have usually regressed the next calendar year. Atlanta got extremely lucky early in the season with a few underserved wins, but the staff and players gained confidence after that. They barely made the playoffs, but once in, they beat the Rams and lost a close game at rested Philadelphia. Others may disagree, but I’d call the ’17 season at least a partial success. That being said, expectations have to be set higher for ’18. What went right: Atlanta may have regressed offensively but their overall yardage was still plus 743 by season’s end. 39 defensive sacks may not sound like much but I had expected regression. This is the 2nd year in a row Atlanta has been competitive in this area. Julio Jones is still my #1 NFL WR. I’ve been critical of Atlanta’s defense (especially their pass D) over the past few seasons but improvement was shown in several areas, leading to a 9th place finish despite facing a 1st place NFL schedule. By the way, Atlanta was the ONLY ’16 NFC playoff team to return to the playoffs last year. How about that! What went wrong: The pass D% remains unacceptable, clocking in at 65.5%. New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian inherited a veteran unit, but there were noticeable cracks in the play calling acumen. Atlanta faced nine playoff teams and scored an average of under 16 per game in those contests. The punt return game regressed. The kick return defense was abysmal at 26.2 allowed per return, and that was without allowing a kick return TD! FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Offensively, OG Brandon Fusco is in and WR Tyler Gabriel is out. There’s also been a minor change at back-up TE. Defensively, Atlanta took some hits along the DL with run stopper Dontari Poe leaving along with DE Adrian Clayborn. They’ve added DB Justin Bethel. 2018 draft recap: There was no standout #1 WR but Clavin Ridley was considered a safe option. Paired with Julio Jones, this could create instant impact. The rest of the draft was uneventful and unfulfilling. Moving up for WR Russell Gage was a mistake, especially with other positions of need. Isaiah Oliver and Deadrin Senat have upside, but could top out as fringe or rotational starters. Senat had a 4th-5th round grade. Smith had a 7th round grade. Gage and Foyesade Oluokun had no draft value. BEST PICK: Ridley. VALUE LOST: All picks after the 1st two. THE FINAL STATEMENT: There were too many throwaway picks, and not enough picks. Ridley and Jones could make the offense better, especially if 2nd year coordinator Sarkisian improves. Unfortunately, I see regression in the run D, little help for their 65.5% pass D, and likely little improvement defending punts and kickoffs. ROSTER ANALYSIS AS OF SEPTEMBER 1st: QB: Matt Ryan remains my 5th rated NFL QB. I am NOT a fan of Matt Schaub. RB: Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman remain a well above average one-two punch. WR: Julio Jones is my #1 rated NFL WR. Mohammad Sanu is strictly a possession guy but has had back-to-back solid years here. Rookie Calvin Ridley will be the one to watch. No other WR’s are worth noting. TE: Austin Hooper has upside but has been lightly used. Two reserves add average depth. OL: This is a good OL led by stud center Alex Mack. RT is the weak link. DL: Dontari Poe was a nice addition to the run D but he was here just in ’17. This is not a bad DL but they are below average as a unit in QB pressures and sacks with the exception of Vic Beasley. He regressed in ’17 but is still capable of 10+ sacks. LB: Deion Jones is the star, and perhaps De’Vontre Campbell is serviceable. Last year I called rookie Duke Riley the best of a less than stellar back-up unit. He starts now. There is zero back-up talent! CB: I really do not understand why the pass D% is so consistently below average considering the talent here. The unit is deeper than most but something is missing. Of course Jalen Collins had a double suspension and was not a factor in ’17 and released. Safety: Usually the weak link, there are three players with some talent but not a one of them can make other players better. Special Teams: The kicking game is solid. The return defense is usually strong. The return offense still needs a jump start. st Coaching: Dan Quinn had an underrated ’17 considering the Super Bowl funk they were in. He got no help from 1 year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. He must step up his game. The defensive coordinator is below average as well. TEAM KEYS AS OF SEPTEMBER 1st: Despite the increase in defensive sacks, Atlanta has to be better at this and not rely on just Beasley. More importantly, that pass D% has to come down. This has forever been a sore spot. Offensive creatively has to improve considering they have a top 4-8 RB unit, #1 WR and #5 QB. How well will they navigate a very tough slate of road games? Will the team miss DT Poe? nd DID THE PRESEASON MEAN ANYTHING? For the 2 year in a row Atlanta finished August 0-4. In ’16 they had a 54-77 point ratio. This year the ratio was 27-96! Yes, this is a veteran team but Atlanta was not good last September and did nothing in my eyes to prepare for their rough early ’18 opening schedule. Ryan took more sacks than usual. I still like the offensive talent but is Sarkisian holding them back? The defensive unit tallied 11 sacks but that was produced by mostly backups. Most players defensively got their work in. Unfortunately, I didn’t see great LB play or safety play. There is a chance rookie Ridley jump starts the kick return unit. STRATEGY AND BOTTOM LINE ANALYSIS: Going into the preseason I felt that Atlanta could make some noise in September. NFL teams think in quartiles. Games 1-4 are at Philly without Wentz, followed by home games vs. Carolina, New Orleans and Cincy. 3-1 seemed possible, and if achieved vs. this decent slate of opponents it would give them a leg up in the tough NFC South. I’m calling for 2-2, as the team does not look strong enough or confident enough to start the season and even the game vs. Cincy will not be easy psychologically with the Falcons off two Divisional games and playing at Pittsburgh the following week. Strangely enough, Atlanta is just 4-6 at home hosting Tampa. By mid-October they will have hosted all three NFC South opponents, meaning that all rematches will be on the road. Atlanta has a bye week following their MNF host of the NYG so there will be no short week before traveling to Washington (tossup game). On 11/18 they host Dallas. They have won seven of ten hosting the Cowboys, who will be off an emotional game vs. Philly. If I had more faith in this team 7-3 might be the floor prior to their Turkey night game at New Orleans (tossup game). Playing Baltimore won’t be easy, but Atlanta has ten days to prepare for that one. After an expected loss at GB the Falcons close hosting Arizona (big home field edge) at Carolina (Panthers own home series edge) and at Tampa (Bucs could be out of it, very poor home dog in their last game if that is the case). BOTTOM LINE: New Orleans is good, but not unbeatable. The same goes for Carolina. My 1st pass through gave Atlanta just eight wins but the schedule pace is good and I think they could go 9-7. The road schedule won’t be easy but this is a veteran team. I have the same concerns as always on defense, that being sack pressure and their bottom tier pass D%. Fix anything here, and get more out of their offensive play-calling and the Falcons can be dangerous. KEY GAMES: Weeks two and three with Divisional games hosting Carolina and New Orleans. Go 2-0 and they are the favorite in the NFC South. Handicapping Tip: Consider the dog on 9/16 hosting Carolina, especially if the Panthers are +3 or more. 2018 POWER # SET: Coming Saturday. .
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