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Assessing the Feasibility of Citizens' Basic Income Pilots in Scotland

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Assessing the Feasibility of Citizens' Basic Income Pilots in Scotland Assessing the Feasibility of Citizens’ Basic Income Pilots in Scotland: Final Report Prepared by the Citizens’ Basic Income Feasibility Study Steering Group June 2020 Contents Project Team and Acknowledgements 4 Forewords by CBI Feasibility Study Councillor Group 5 Executive Summary 7 Report Outline 18 Section 1: Introduction to Citizens’ Basic Income (CBI) 19 1.1 What is a Citizens’ Basic Income (CBI)? 19 1.2 History of CBI 19 1.3 Arguments for and against CBI 20 Section 2: Background to the project 23 2.1 Local context and challenge 23 2.2 Establishment of CBI Steering Group 24 2.3 CBI Feasibility Fund 24 2.4 Feasibility Study Objectives and Outputs 25 2.5 Feasibility Study Governance 26 Section 3: Research and Evidence Overview 28 3.1 Overview of Published Evidence 28 3.2 Evidence from Contemporary International CBI Experiments 32 3.3 Worldwide Contemporary CBI Experiments 37 3.4 Evidence from Community Engagement and Surveys 40 3.5 Commissioned Research 43 Section 4: Rationale for Piloting and Approach to Assessing Feasibility 45 4.1 Insufficiency of evidence 45 4.2 Piloting versus Modelling 46 4.3 CBI Policy Schemes proposed elsewhere 47 4.4 Introduction to the Feasibility Framework 48 Section 5: Proposed Pilot Model 52 5.1 Overview and Rationale of CBI Model Option(s) 52 5.2 Summary of CBI Pilot Model Variables 52 5.3 CBI Pilot Design Principles 57 5.4 CBI Pilot Model Level(s) 57 5.5 Interaction with Social Security 59 5.6 Interaction with Tax System 61 2 5.7 Pilot Duration 62 5.8 Pilot Populations 62 5.9 Pilot Model Payment Options 64 Section 6: Evaluability Assessment 68 6.1 Theory of Change 69 6.2 Outcome measurement 72 6.3 Study design 74 6.4 Process Evaluation 85 6.5 Evaluation costs 87 6.6 Conclusions and recommendations 88 Section 7: Policy Pilot Governance and Research Ethics 95 7.1 Introduction 95 7.2 Implications of a control trial: protecting intervention and control groups from relative harms 96 7.3 Assessing and minimising the potential impacts on different groups 103 7.4 Protection of participants’ rights: Participation and informed consent 105 7.5 Governance recommendations 110 Section 8: Feasibility Assessment 112 8.1 Strategic Feasibility 112 8.2 Institutional Feasibility 116 8.3 Psychological feasibility 128 8.4 Behavioural Feasibility 130 8.5 Financial Feasibility 132 Section 9: Economic Modelling Findings 136 9.1 Introduction 136 9.2 Approach 136 9.3 Results 140 9.4 Economic Modelling: Discussion 147 Section 10: Feasibility Study Conclusions and Recommendations 149 10.1 Pilot model rationale and recommendation 149 10.2 Evaluation and research considerations 153 10.3 Discussion of overall feasibility 155 10.4 Economic Modelling Findings 157 10.5 Learning and discussion 159 References 163 3 Project Team and Acknowledgements Project Steering Group: Wendy Hearty, Project Manager, Improvement Service/Public Health Scotland Gerry McCartney, Steering Group Chair, Public Health Scotland Mhairi Paterson, Policy Officer, Improvement Service/North Ayrshire Council Chris Adams, City of Edinburgh Council Coryn Barclay, Fife Council Neil Craig, Public Health Scotland Nicola Elliot, City of Edinburgh Council Andrew McGuire, Improvement Service Julie McLachlan, North Ayrshire Council Fiona Myers, Public Health Scotland Paul Vaughan, Fife Council Andy White, Glasgow City Council We are grateful to the Scottish Government representatives who have had input to the Steering Group for the duration of this project. Our thanks go to the following individuals and group who have commented or had input at various stages of the development of this project: Gerry Quinn, Glasgow City Council Mandy MacEwan, Fife Council Child Poverty Action Group research group Fraser of Allander/Manchester Metropolitan University/IPPR research collaboration group Marcia Gibson, MRC, University of Glasgow (evidence consultation and peer review) Peter Craig, MRC, University of Glasgow (formal peer review) Morag Treanor, Heriot Watt University (formal peer review) Jim Lewsey, University of Glasgow (formal peer review) Annie Miller, CBINS CBI Feasibility Study Stakeholder Group 4 Forewords by CBI Feasibility Study Councillor Group Foreword by Councillor David Alexander and Councillor David Ross, Co-leaders, Fife Council Fife welcomes the publishing of this report. Since the release of the Fairness Matters Report by the Fairer Fife Commission in 2015, the council and its partners have supported the piloting of basic income. The council renewed its commitment to piloting basic income after the local government elections and in the joint agreement between the administration parties. The cross-party support for undertaking this feasibility work shows that local councillors understand the suffering that vulnerability, inequality and precarious employment have on the lives of individuals, families and children. The impact of Covid-19 across our communities has also highlighted the fragility of people’s lives and the differing ability to respond to changing events. Our work through the pandemic has shown that over 100,000 people (nearly a third of the population) have vulnerabilities that would potentially require extra support, between ourselves and the voluntary sector over two thousand people a week are being assisted with basics such as food and energy. At this time it cannot be right that such a high proportion of the people that live in our communities cannot be sure that they can have the basics needed for living or the basis from which to develop and fulfil their ambitions. Universal Basic Income may offer a solution to some of these issues and we look forward to continuing to support the case for the feasibility work to help bring fairness across Fife. Foreword by Councillor Ricky Bell, City Treasurer, Glasgow City Council My Council has a long-standing interest in exploring the potential of a Citizens’ Basic Income to impact positively on the Citizens of Glasgow. We are keen to test its ability to address inequality and mitigate against poverty and deprivation. It is imperative that we consider new policy options, better designed than the current system and more equipped to improve living standards and quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic puts even more focus on the need for change and fuels the desire to find different and more effective responses to the many challenges we now face. There needs to be a secure financial platform that allows space and time for people to build instead of the continuation of an inadequate model of social protection that gives little flexibility. Going forward we must better value the contributions that people make and promote a fairer society and more sustainable existence. This report is a significant contribution to this necessary debate and the specific consideration of the feasibility of a CBI pilot scheme in Scotland. It is important that all tiers of government embrace this opportunity and respond positively to the report’s recommendations. Foreword by Councillor Joe Cullinane, Leader of North Ayrshire Council Citizens’ Basic Income is a bold and radical policy idea which has seen a rapid increase in public interest not only Scotland and the UK, but worldwide, as a potential solution to reducing poverty and tackling economic insecurity. Levels of poverty and inequality are stubbornly high in some of our communities and we must consider innovative solutions if we want to create a fairer society centred on wellbeing. 5 This ground-breaking research explores the feasibility of implementing a pilot of Citizens’ Basic Income in Scotland. A key strength of the study lies in the robust and evidence-based approach. Whilst a pilot of CBI is desirable, support from both the Scottish and UK Governments is needed to overcome the substantive and complex legislative and delivery barriers to piloting a CBI. I urge both Governments to actively consider this report and work with the project partners to take the steps needed to move towards a pilot of CBI. Bold initiatives like CBI are needed now more than ever given the hardship and fragility exposed by Covid-19 and as we look to build back better and fairer. Foreword by Councillor Cammy Day, Depute Leader, City of Edinburgh Council Rising interest in new forms of social protection have been evident for a few years now, but the Coronavirus pandemic has brought with it a new tide of anxiety and insecurity for people across Scotland. Right now, we know that more people than ever are struggling to pay their bills, and that people who were already living on low incomes are suffering the most. We know too that a return to business as usual is not an option and that bold new ideas are needed to help people keep their heads above water both through current difficult times and a changed future landscape. Citizens’ Basic Income is just such an idea, and we welcome the invaluable contribution this research has made to our understanding of its potential to improve wellbeing and reduce poverty. The challenges to implementing a pilot are substantial, but not insurmountable, and the potential benefits are significant. With this research we can be sure that Scotland is better prepared than any other country to move towards piloting the policy. 6 Executive Summary Key Findings • This report presents comprehensive and detailed research into the feasibility of a Citizens’ Basic Income (CBI) pilot in Scotland. It has been developed by a successful collaboration of local government and public health, supported by national government. • The CBI Steering Group recommends that a pilot study of CBI is undertaken in Scotland. A robust and well-designed pilot would provide an invaluable opportunity to test and evaluate the effects of CBI within the Scottish context. • The feasibility study provides important, evidence-based insights to determine the extent to which a nationwide CBI policy is possible within the Scottish context.
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