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The World Bank for OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. P- 7311 Gil REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE; INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized TO THE E:XECUTIVE DIRECTORS O'N A PROPOSED SECOND ECONOMIC REFORM SUPPORT OPERATION CREDIT oF SDR 132.7 MILL:ION (US$180 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO5 Public Disclosure Authorized T'HE REPUBLIC OF GHANA May 4, 1999 Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Cedi (0) US$1.00 =2418 (March 31, 1999) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System FISCAL YEAR January 1-December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Agricultural Development Bank APL Adaptable Program Lending BHC Bank for Housing and Construction BOG Bank of Ghana BPEMS Budget and Public Expenditure Management System CAS Country Assistance Strategy CEPS Customs, Excise and Preventive Service CG Consultative Group COCOBOD Cocoa Board COOP Cooperative Bank CWIQ Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire DIC Divestiture Implementation Committee EC Energy Commission ECG Electricity Company of Ghana ERP Economic Recovery Program ERSO Economic Reform Support Operation ERSO 11 Second Economic Reform Support Operation ESAF Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility GCB Ghana Commercial Bank GDP Gross Domestic Product GNPC Ghana National Petroleum Cooperation GOIL Ghana Oil Company GLSS Ghana Living Standard Survey IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund IRS Internal Revenue Service LBC Licensed Buying Company LDP Letter of Development Policy LIL Learning and Innovation Loan MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MTEF Medium Tenn Expenditure Framework NGO Non-governmental Organization NIB National Investment Bank NRS National Revenue Service PBC Produce Buying Company Vice President Jean-Louis Sarbib Country Director Peter Harrold Technical Manager Charles P. Humphreys Task Team Leader Rocio Castro FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY PEPTA Public Enterprise and Privatization Technical Assistance PFP Policy Framework Paper PUFMARP Public Financial Management Reform Program PURC Public Utilities Regulatory Commission RAGB Revenue Agencies Governing Board SDR Special Drawing Rights SSB Social Security Bank TIN Tax Identification Number TOR Tema Oil Refinery WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union VAT Value Added Tax This operation was prepared by a team consisting of Rocio Castro (Senior Economist and Task Team Leader, AFTM4), Ulrich Hess (Economist, AFTM4), Camille Lampart (Economist,World Bank Ghana Office), Gerard Byam (PrincipalEconomist, AFTPS), Paul Murgatroyd (Lead Specialist,AFTPS), Joel Maweni(Senior Financial Analyst,AFEN), SolomonBekure (Senior OperationsOfficer, World Bank Ghana Office), Said Al Habsy (Legal Counsel,LEGAF). Contributionswere receivedfrom Theresa Jones (Country Progam Coordinator, AFCIO), Oliver Campbell-White(Senior Public Enterprise Specialist, AFTPS),Mangesh Hoskote (Power Sector Specialist,EMTEG), Snorri Hallgrimssom(Principal Engineer, AFTT2),Gunter Heidenhof (Senior Public Sector Management Specialist, World Bank GhanaOffice), Jose Sokol (Lead Economist,AFT4) and Luis de Azcarate (Consultant,AFTM4). Peer Reviewers were Sudhir Shetty(Principal Economist, AFTM1) and Heman Garcia (PrincipalPower Engineer,EMTEG). Al Crego (ReasearchAnalyst,AFTM4) and Ann Martinov (Team Assistant)provided operationalsupport. This document has a restricted distibution and may be used by recipients only in the perfonnance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. REPUBLIC OF GHANA SECOND ECONOMIC REFORM SUPPORT OPERATION CREDIT TABLE OF CONTENTS Credit and Program Summary ........................... , i L THE ECONOMY .1 A. Background. B. Recent EconomicDevelopments .2 R. GHANA'S ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM ............. .......................................................... 3 A. RestoringMacroeconomic Stability .4 B. Structural Reform Efforts .6 C. HumanDevelopment and PovertyReduction ..................................................................... 12 D. Medium-TermOutlook and FinancingRequirements .................................................................. 12 IIL THE PROPOSED CREDIT ..................................................................... 14 A. CreditRationale and Components..................................................................... 14 B. SpecificActions Supported by the Credit..................................................................... 15 C. PovertyImpact ..................................................................... 16 D. Link to the CAS ..................................................................... 17 E. CreditAmount, Disbursement Procedures and ImplementationArrangements ........................... 17 F. ProgramBenefits and Risks...................................................................... 18 IV. BANK GROUP OPERATIONS AND COLLABORATION WITH OTHER DONORS .... 19 V. RECOMMENDATION ..................................................................... 20 Annexes A. Matrix of Policy Actions B. Ghana at a Glance C. Key Economic Indicators D. External Financial Requirements E. Social Indicators of Development F. Status of Bank Operations G. Impact Indicators H. Timetable of Key Processing Events 1. Letter of Development Policy J. Policy Framework Paper REPUBLIC OF GHANA SECOND ECONOMIC REFORM SUPPORT OPERATION CREDIT CREDIT AND PROGRAM SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Ghana Amount: SDR 132.7 million (US$180 million equivalent, which includes US$1.8 million IDA Reflows) Terms: Standard IDA terms with a maturity of 40 years Description: The proposed Credit will seek to consolidate recent gains in restoring macroeconomic stability and will support the implementation of a deeper and more challenging phase of the reform program in the cocoa, energy, and banking sectors. The proceeds of the Credit will help cover the external financing requirements of Ghana in the context of a vulnerable external position and low level of external reserves. Moreover, by generating counterpart funds for the budget, the Credit will also assist in reducing the government's domestic financing requirements and help support a downward trend in inflation and interest rates, thereby reducing the country's heavy domestic debt burden. Benefits: Successful completion of the program will enable the Government to create firmer grounds for sustained private sector-led and poverty-reducing growth. In addition to establishing a favorable environment for the private sector, the reduction in inflation will have a beneficial impact on the poor. The anticipated decline in interest rates and reduced debt service payments will allow an expansion of private sector credit as well as increased budgetary allocations to the social sectors. Moreover, proposed reforms in the cocoa sector will boost exports and have a positive impact on the incomes of farmers with significant multiplier effects on the rural economy where most of the poor live. Reforms in the energy sector intended to facilitate private sector participation in power generation and distribution are likely to enhance private investment prospects. Finally, banking restructuring will improve the soundness of the financial system and eliminate sources of quasi-fiscal deficits and inefficient allocation of financial resources. Risks: As shown by past experience, there is a potential risk of policy slippage in the run-up to elections in the year 2000. The Government is quite aware of this risk and, more importantly, of the damaging effects on the population of repeated policy failure. In this regard, the Government has, over the past two years, demonstrated greater commitment to fiscal discipline and has reinstated politically sensitive measures such as the VAT and the rise in electricity tariffs. ii The Govemment will likely face opposition to some reforms, i.e., the opening of cocoa exports to private operators, from special groups who may perceive proposed changes as a threat to Ghana's quality standing in the world market as well as to their economic interests. To mitigate this risk the Government has opted to implement reforms in a gradual manner and engaged in wide consultations with stakeholders. Finally, while the export price for cocoa is expected to recover over time after its recent downfall, prolonged depressed prices could offset gains from proposed reforms. The Government's ability to manage external shocks from commodity prices (including gold and timber) is limited in the short terma. Disbursement: The Credit will be disbursed in three tranches, one of them being a floating tranche. The first tranche in an amount equivalent to US$80 million will be released upon effectiveness. The second and the floating tranches in amounts equivalent to US$80 million and US$20 million, respectively, will be disbursed upon completion of agreed actions. Map: IBRD23606 REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED SECOND ECONOMIC REFORM SUPPORT OPERATION CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF GHANA 1. I submit for your approval the following report and recommendation on the proposed Second Economic Reform Support Operation (ERSO II) to the Republic of Ghana for SDR 132.7 million, an amount equivalent
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