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Middle East Oil Pricing Systems in Flux Introduction
May 2021: ISSUE 128 MIDDLE EAST OIL PRICING SYSTEMS IN FLUX INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2 THE GULF/ASIA BENCHMARKS: SETTING THE SCENE...................................................................................................... 5 Adi Imsirovic THE SHIFT IN CRUDE AND PRODUCT FLOWS ..................................................................................................................... 8 Reid l'Anson and Kevin Wright THE DUBAI BENCHMARK: EVOLUTION AND RESILIENCE ............................................................................................... 12 Dave Ernsberger MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA OIL PRICING—BENCHMARKS AND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES......................................... 15 Paul Young THE PROSPECTS OF MURBAN AS A BENCHMARK .......................................................................................................... 18 Michael Wittner IFAD: A LURCHING START IN A SANDY ROAD .................................................................................................................. 22 Jorge Montepeque THE SECOND SPLIT: BASRAH MEDIUM AND THE CHALLENGE OF IRAQI CRUDE QUALITY...................................... 29 Ahmed Mehdi CHINA’S SHANGHAI INE CRUDE FUTURES: HAPPY ACCIDENT VERSUS OVERDESIGN ............................................. 33 Tom Reed FUJAIRAH’S RISE TO PROMINENCE .................................................................................................................................. -
Price Forecast June 30, 2015 Contents
Resource Evaluation & Advisory Price forecast June 30, 2015 Contents Canadian price forecast 1 International price forecast 5 Global outlook 6 Western Canada royalty comparison 8 Pricing philosophy 11 Glossary 12 Canadian domestic price forecast Forecast commentary Andrew Botterill Senior Manager, Resource Evaluation & Advisory “Everything is in a state of fl ux, including status quo” - Robert Byrne As industry adjusts to the “new normal” we have analyzed This narrowing has been most notable on the heavy oil in our last two forecasts, activities in the energy sector side, where diff erentials have decreased more than 30 per are beginning to demonstrate a cautious, but optimistic cent compared with where they were in summer 2014. view of the future. While not anticipating $100 oil in the With greater than 60 per cent of Canadian production near term, these views show an expectation industry will being from oil sands (CAPP 2015 forecast report) the bring a more focused approach to North American oil narrowing of heavy diff erentials is welcome news to much development within the coming 12 to 18 months. of the sector. In recent weeks, the WTI to heavy diff erential has been narrower than we have seen recently as In recent weeks, Canadian-received oil prices have been production from some projects was shut-in due to wildfi res stronger relative to the beginning of the year, with daily in northern Alberta. The shut-in production has since been WTI settlements hovering around $60/bbl USD and brought back on-stream, which has slowed the narrowing Canadian Light settlements greater than $70/bbl CAD. -
Characteristics of Oil Sands Products
CHARACTERISTICS OF OIL SANDS PRODUCTS Heather D. Dettman Center for Spills in the Environment Oil Sands Products Training Portland, Maine December 4 & 5, 2012 2 Simplified —Oil Sands to Motor“ Value Chain Tailings Pipeline Transport Desalter Extraction Mining Pipeline Terminal Distillation W ater/Solids Primary Upgrading Removal Coking or Residue Performed at Upgraders DiluentAddition Hydrocracking Performed at Refineries In Situ Production Secondary Upgrading May be needed in future Catalytic Processing (Hydrogen) Refining Catalytic Processing (Hydrogen) Gasoline Diesel 3 Pipeline Definitions Transm ission Tailings Pipeline Transport Desalter Extraction Mining Pipeline Terminal Distillation Feeder W ater/Solids Primary Upgrading Removal Coking or Residue Performed at Upgraders DiluentAddition Hydrocracking Gathering Performed at Refineries In Situ Production Secondary Upgrading May be needed in future Catalytic Processing (Hydrogen) http://www.cepa.com /about-pipelines/types-of-pipelines Refining Catalytic Processing (Hydrogen) Gasoline Diesel 4 0hat Is Bitumen? ° Bitumen is the —extra heavy“ crude oil that remains after the biodegradation of oil in Northern Alberta ° Initial boiling point is 204°C/399.2°F ° Approximately 50wt% of the oil boils at temperatures below 524°C/975.2°F ° Biodegradation has resulted in organic acids being left behind in the oil ° Total acid number (TAN) is 3mg KOH/g which corresponds to an organic acid content of 3wt% in the oil ° Organic acid species in bitumen are relatively large molecules with 70wt% boiling -
Market Index Uniflex 10%
Investment and retirement 5% 10% Market Index Uniflex 10% 25% Main Product Features 25% 6-year term (not redeemable before maturity) Guarantee of principal on maturity of 100% Low management fees of 1% per year 10% 15% $500 minimum deposit An easy way to diversify Cut-off age: 64 y/o (registered) and 70 y/o (non-registered) Even under a scenario where the return of each share is negative, this product may produce a global positive return Sector diversification of the Market Index Uniflex How it works On the settlement date, a starting level will be determined for each Canadian share included in the portfolio. On the maturity date, a ratio of the closing level over the starting level for each share will be computed. The 8 best performing shares during the 6-year term will be automatically assigned a fixed return of 60%, regardless of whether the actual return was positive or negative. The remaining 12 shares will be assigned their actual return. The global return (maximum 60%) will be calculated by averaging these 20 returns. The value at maturity will be the highest value between: the initial deposit; or the initial deposit PLUS global return (maximum 60%) Exposure to 20 Canadian companies included in the S&P/TSX 60 Index Company Sector Company Sector Metro Inc. Scotiabank Consumer staples Loblaw Companies Limited The Toronto-Dominion Bank Royal Bank of Canada Financial services Bank of Montreal Enbridge Inc. Sun Life Financial Inc. TransCanada Corporation Cenovus Energy Inc. Energy Canadian Natural Resources Limited Canadian National Railway Industrials Suncor Energy Inc. -
Secure Fuels from Domestic Resources ______Profiles of Companies Engaged in Domestic Oil Shale and Tar Sands Resource and Technology Development
5th Edition Secure Fuels from Domestic Resources ______________________________________________________________________________ Profiles of Companies Engaged in Domestic Oil Shale and Tar Sands Resource and Technology Development Prepared by INTEK, Inc. For the U.S. Department of Energy • Office of Petroleum Reserves Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves Fifth Edition: September 2011 Note to Readers Regarding the Revised Edition (September 2011) This report was originally prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy in June 2007. The report and its contents have since been revised and updated to reflect changes and progress that have occurred in the domestic oil shale and tar sands industries since the first release and to include profiles of additional companies engaged in oil shale and tar sands resource and technology development. Each of the companies profiled in the original report has been extended the opportunity to update its profile to reflect progress, current activities and future plans. Acknowledgements This report was prepared by INTEK, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves, Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves (DOE/NPOSR) as a part of the AOC Petroleum Support Services, LLC (AOC- PSS) Contract Number DE-FE0000175 (Task 30). Mr. Khosrow Biglarbigi of INTEK, Inc. served as the Project Manager. AOC-PSS and INTEK, Inc. wish to acknowledge the efforts of representatives of the companies that provided information, drafted revised or reviewed company profiles, or addressed technical issues associated with their companies, technologies, and project efforts. Special recognition is also due to those who directly performed the work on this report. Mr. Peter M. Crawford, Director at INTEK, Inc., served as the principal author of the report. -
Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis September 2020 U.S. Energy Information eia Administration Short- Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecast highlights Globalliquidfuels The SeptemberShort- TermEnergy Outlook (STEO) remainssubject to heightenedlevels of uncertaintybecausemitigationand reopeningefforts relatedto the 2019 novel coronavirusdisease ( COVID- 19) continueto evolve. Reducedeconomicactivity related to the COVID- 19 pandemichas caused changes in energydemandand supply patternsin 2020.This STEOassumes U.S. grossdomesticproductdeclinedby 4.6% in the first half of 2020fromthe same period a year ago and will rise beginninginthe third quarterof 2020, with year-over-year growthof 3.1% in 2021.The U.S. macroeconomic assumptionsinthis outlookare based onforecasts by IHS Markit. Brentcrude oilspot prices averaged$45 per barrel ( b ) in August, up $2/ b from the average inJuly. Brent prices in Augustwere up $26/ b from the multiyearlow monthly average price in April.The increaseinoil prices has occurred EIA estimatesglobal oil marketshave shifted from global liquidfuelsinventoriesbuildingat a rate of 7.2 million barrels per day (b/ d ) in the second quarterto drawingat a rate of 3.7 millionb/ d inthe third quarter. expects inventorydraws in the fourth quarterof 3.1million b/d before marketsbecome relativelybalancedin 2021, withforecast drawsof0.3 million b/ d. Despiteexpectedinventorydraws inthe comingmonths, EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil productioncapacitywill limit upward pressureon oil prices. EIA forecastsmonthlyBrent spot priceswill average $ 44 / b duringthe fourth quarter of 2020 and riseto an average of $49/ b in 2021as oil marketsbecome more balanced. EIA estimatesthat globalconsumptionof petroleumand liquid fuels averaged94.3 millionb/ d in August . Liquid fuels consumptionwas down 8.2 millionb/ d from August 2019, butit was up from an averageof 85.1 million b/ d duringthe second quarterof 2020 and 93.3 millionb/ d in July. -
ANNUAL INFORMATION FORM for the YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2015 February 19, 2016
ENBRIDGE INC. ANNUAL INFORMATION FORM FOR THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2015 February 19, 2016 Enbridge Inc. 2015 Annual Information Form TABLE OF CONTENTS DOCUMENTS INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE As of the date hereof, portions of the MD&A and the audited consolidated financial statements of Enbridge as at and for the year ended December 31, 2015, as filed with the securities commissions or similar authorities in each of the provinces of Canada, as detailed below, are specifically incorporated by reference into and form an integral part of this AIF. These documents are available on SEDAR which can be accessed at www.sedar.com. Page Reference From Annual Financial AIF Statements MD&A GLOSSARY ................................................................................................... 1 PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION ........................................................... 4 12 FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION .........................................................5 CORPORATE STRUCTURE ......................................................................... 6 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE BUSINESS ............................................ 7 1-2, 14-19 GENERAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE BUSINESS ....................................... 10 2-4, 8-9, 16-21, 23-39, 59-60, 67-69, 73-74 LIQUIDS PIPELINES ................................................................................... 16 1, 40-52 GAS DISTRIBUTION ................................................................................... 17 1, 52-55 GAS PIPELINES, PROCESSING AND ENERGY SERVICES -
Pipeline Capacity and the Dynamics of Alberta Crude Oil Price Spreads
Department of Economics and Finance University of Guelph Discussion Paper 2018-04 Pipeline capacity and the dynamics of Alberta crude oil price spreads By: Gregory Galay Henry Thille University of Guelph University of Guelph [email protected] [email protected] DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH GUELPH ONTARIO CANADA N1G 2W1 519-824-4120 www.uoguelph.ca/economics Pipeline capacity and the dynamics of Alberta crude oil price spreads* Gregory Galay Henry Thille Department of Economics & Finance Department of Economics & Finance University of Guelph University of Guelph E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] August 7, 2018 Abstract From 2011 until the end of 2014, a larger than normal price spread emerged be- tween West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Western Canadian Select (WCS). This led many participants in Canada's energy sector to advocate for the expansion of Canada's crude oil pipeline system as they believed that excess supply could not be moved from production regions in Northern Alberta to those markets that would yield the highest return. This article considers the impact constrained transportation capacity has on the price spread between WCS and other world prices such as WTI. A Markov-switching model is used to identify regimes associated with binding/non-binding pipeline capac- ity. Our results confirm the predictions of models of spatial arbitrage under capacity constraints. When there is sufficient transportation capacity the price spreads reflect transport costs (includes fees, insurance, etc.) plus any premium for the quality differ- ence between the crude oils compared. However, during periods of tight capacity the spread becomes more volatile and on average exceeds transport costs plus the quality premium. -
Facts About Alberta's Oil Sands and Its Industry
Facts about Alberta’s oil sands and its industry CONTENTS Oil Sands Discovery Centre Facts 1 Oil Sands Overview 3 Alberta’s Vast Resource The biggest known oil reserve in the world! 5 Geology Why does Alberta have oil sands? 7 Oil Sands 8 The Basics of Bitumen 10 Oil Sands Pioneers 12 Mighty Mining Machines 15 Cyrus the Bucketwheel Excavator 1303 20 Surface Mining Extraction 22 Upgrading 25 Pipelines 29 Environmental Protection 32 In situ Technology 36 Glossary 40 Oil Sands Projects in the Athabasca Oil Sands 44 Oil Sands Resources 48 OIL SANDS DISCOVERY CENTRE www.oilsandsdiscovery.com OIL SANDS DISCOVERY CENTRE FACTS Official Name Oil Sands Discovery Centre Vision Sharing the Oil Sands Experience Architects Wayne H. Wright Architects Ltd. Owner Government of Alberta Minister The Honourable Lindsay Blackett Minister of Culture and Community Spirit Location 7 hectares, at the corner of MacKenzie Boulevard and Highway 63 in Fort McMurray, Alberta Building Size Approximately 27,000 square feet, or 2,300 square metres Estimated Cost 9 million dollars Construction December 1983 – December 1984 Opening Date September 6, 1985 Updated Exhibit Gallery opened in September 2002 Facilities Dr. Karl A. Clark Exhibit Hall, administrative area, children’s activity/education centre, Robert Fitzsimmons Theatre, mini theatre, gift shop, meeting rooms, reference room, public washrooms, outdoor J. Howard Pew Industrial Equipment Garden, and Cyrus Bucketwheel Exhibit. Staffing Supervisor, Head of Marketing and Programs, Senior Interpreter, two full-time Interpreters, administrative support, receptionists/ cashiers, seasonal interpreters, and volunteers. Associated Projects Bitumount Historic Site Programs Oil Extraction demonstrations, Quest for Energy movie, Paydirt film, Historic Abasand Walking Tour (summer), special events, self-guided tours of the Exhibit Hall. -
Top News Before the Bell Stocks To
TOP NEWS • A hunt for any storage space turns urgent as oil glut grows With oil depots that normally store crude oil onshore filling to the brim and supertankers mostly taken, energy companies are desperate for more space. The alternative is to pay buyers to take their U.S. crude after futures plummeted to a negative $37 a barrel on Monday. • Corporate America seeks legal protection for when coronavirus lockdowns lift Major U.S. business lobbying groups are asking Congress to pass measures that would protect companies large and small from coronavirus-related lawsuits when states start to lift pandemic restrictions and businesses begin to reopen. • Teck Resources profit falls short as lockdowns, energy unit bite Teck Resources reported a much bigger-than-expected 84% plunge in quarterly profit, hit by shutdowns due to the coronavirus outbreak and weak performance in its energy unit. • U.S. energy industry steps up lobbying for Fed's emergency aid -letters The U.S. energy industry has asked the Federal Reserve to change the terms of a $600 billion lending facility so that oil and gas companies can use the funds to repay their ballooning debts, according to a letter seen by Reuters. • Coca-Cola sees 2nd quarter sales hit from coronavirus lockdown Coca-Cola forecast a significant hit to current-quarter results as restaurants, theaters and other venues that represent about half of the company's revenue remain closed because of the coronavirus pandemic. BEFORE THE BELL Canada's main stock index futures slid as U.S. oil futures continued to trade in the negative after their first ever sub-zero dive on Monday, furthering concerns of a global recession in the coming months. -
Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Choi, Hankyeung; Leatham, David J.; Sukcharoen, Kunlapath Article Oil price forecasting using crack spread futures and oil exchange traded funds Contemporary Economics Provided in Cooperation with: University of Finance and Management, Warsaw Suggested Citation: Choi, Hankyeung; Leatham, David J.; Sukcharoen, Kunlapath (2015) : Oil price forecasting using crack spread futures and oil exchange traded funds, Contemporary Economics, ISSN 2084-0845, Vizja Press & IT, Warsaw, Vol. 9, Iss. 1, pp. 29-44, http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.158 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/141896 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu 29 Primary submission: 16.09.2014 | Final acceptance: 26.09.2014 Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds Hankyeung Choi1, David J. -
Unconventional Oil Resources Exploitation: a Review
Acta Montanistica Slovaca Volume 21 (2016), number 3, 247-257 Unconventional oil resources exploitation: A review Šárka Vilamová 1, Marian Piecha 2 and Zden ěk Pavelek 3 Unconventional crude oil sources are geographically extensive and include the tar sands of the Province of Alberta in Canada, the heavy oil belt of the Orinoco region of Venezuela and the oil shales of the United States, Brazil, India and Malagasy. High production costs and low oil prices have hitherto inhibited the inclusion of unconventional oil resources in the world oil resource figures. In the last decade, developing production technologies, coupled with the higher market value of oil, convert large quantities of unconventional oil into an effective resource. From the aspect of quantity and technological and economic recoverability are actually the most important tar sands. Tar sands can be recovered via surface mining or in-situ collection techniques. This is an up-stream part of exploitation process. Again, this is more expensive than lifting conventional petroleum, but for example, Canada's Athabasca (Alberta) Tar Sands is one example of unconventional reserve that can be economically recoverable with the largest surface mining machinery on the waste landscape with important local but also global environmental impacts. The similar technology of up-stream process concerns oil shales. The downstream part process of solid unconventional oil is an energetically difficult process of separation and refining with important increasing of additive carbon production and increasing of final product costs. In the region of Central Europe is estimated the mean volume of 168 million barrels of technically recoverable oil and natural gas liquids situated in Ordovician and Silurian age shales in the Polish- Ukrainian Foredeep basin of Poland.