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United-Kingdom Elections in the Conservative Party United-Kingdom Elections in the Conservative Party Situation on 25.07.2019 D P S-E C T After failing, for the fourth time, to convince the Parliament to adopt the Brexit deal she spent months negociating, PM Theresa May announced, on 24/05/2019, that she would resign on 07/06 as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, and thus as head of the government. This triggered a new election in the party to chose the new Prime Minister. On 23/07/2019, as expected, pro-Brexit Boris Johnson won the elections against its adversary Jeremy Hunt, thus becoming the new leader of the Conservative party and the United Kingdom new Prime Minister. Though the UK’s ruling party remains unchanged, the new British Head of Government will largely change the conduct of Source (map): French Ministry of Foreign Affairs the Kingdom’s international relations and impact London’s foreing policy. ELECTIONS: AN EXPECTED OUTCOME 1/ After three years of dealing with Brexit, Theresa May, British former Prime Minister, failed to deliver Brexit on the original deadline of 29/03/2019. Dealing with the issue had become particularly difficult after she decided to call a snap general election in 2017 ,which left her without the majority she needed to take Britain out of the EU with a deal that could be accepted by her Conservative Party (Tory party1). 2/ Following this first defeat, Theresa May did not manage to convince the opposition to agree to a deal she negotiated with the EU and presented in front of Parliament three times. It was also indisputable that the opposition came from Theresa May’s own party, which remains deeply divided about Brexit. As she was about to face a second vote of no confidence triggered against her leadership, Theresa May’s resignation, announced on 24/05/2019, came as no surprise. The election organised to choose the next Prime Minister, who is supposed to represent the entire British people, happened within the Conservative party and only concerned the Party’s 160,000 members, which represents about 0.25% of the British population. 3/ This has been widely criticised by the opposition parties, which consider that this vote was not showing the people’s will, labelling it “not democratic”. Indeed, instead of organizing a general election to replace a PM it was not supporting anymore, the ruling party elected a new leader, immediately promoted as new PM, thus “by-passing” the general elections where it could have been defeated (and consequently lose power). 4/ Boris Johnson, former foreign secretary (2016-2018) quickly emerged as the frontrunner in the leadership race. On 23/7/2019, he became, without a big surprise, the new Prime Minister, winning against Jeremy Hunt, his successor as foreign secretary, with a two-one margin (92,153 votes for the new PM against 46,656 cast for Mr Hunt). 1 "Tory" is used as an alternative to the word "Conservative" The word emerged the 17th Century, it was the name given to one of the first faction in Parliament by then. It is derived from the Irish Gaelic word tóraidhe, meaning outlaw. Risk&Co 1 The new PM is notably known for his eccentric personality and his tendency to attract controversy. He had been London’s Mayor for 8 years (2008-2016) and has been a leading figure in the campaign to leave the EU. With such a charismatic figure as the head of the British government, the main foreign issues London is currently facing will directly be impacted and the British way to deal with them will probably change. WHAT IS NEXT FOR BREXIT? 1/ Brexit remains the most significant and urgent issue the new PM will have to deal with. During the several debates organised as part of the election, Boris Johnson referred to internal aspects of his politics as post-Brexit issues. Even though Boris Johnson affirmed during his campaign that the UK “will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal.”, this apparent determination does not change much in the possible outcomes of Brexit, and hardly change the probabilities already existing. 2/ The scenario in which the existing Withdrawal Agreement is finally accepted in Parliament is unlikely to happen. The agreement was already rejected twice by Parliament, and Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the main opposition party (Labour Party), clearly stated that his party would not change its position unless significative changes were made to the deal. Furthermore, the Conservatives’ working majority in Parliament is likely to be reduced by the coming byelection (01/08) to replace Chris Davies, unseated Tory MP, in the House of Commons. The last by-election that took place in Peterborough to replace Tory MP Fiona Onasanya was won by the Labour Party, on 07/06. Moreover, Boris Johnson was cleared during his campaign, about his intention to renegotiate the deal, and especially on the backstop issue2 that he seeks to remove. - The alternative proposal of the new PM to change the withdrawal agreement remains unlikely. Both Prime Ministers agreed that they will try to renegotiate the Brexit deal imposed by the EU. However, the fact that the UK has a new PM does not mean that anything has changed in Brussels, and the EU made it very clear that it was not ready to re-open the deal. Furthermore, new negotiations would require time, which the UK does not have, since the new deadline granted by the EU to the UK early 06/2019 after Parliament failed to agree on a deal before the original deadline (29/03/2019) is now on 31/10. The House of Commons will go into recess from 25/07/2019 to 03/09/2019, and then again in the middle of September for the party conference season3. The only modifications made to the agreement, in the tight amount of time and with the EU strong position, will be cosmetic changes that will fail to convince the opposition to approve the new deal. - As for the possibility of extending the article 504, the new PM made it clear he was opposed to the idea. Even though, realistically, no major changes will occur in the small amount of time the PM has to make Brexit happen, Boris Johnson made the promise during his campaign that the Brexit would happen on 31/10/2019 with or without a deal. Thus, if he keeps his promise, which is likely to happen, he will no further extends the negotiations, which would lead to the other scenarios developed below. - As for the possibility for the UK to unilaterally revoke article 50, thus cancelling Brexit, it is authorised by the European Court of Justice, but it will certainly not happen, since it would largely undermine the UK as a democracy. The only way this could happen was if the result of a binding referendum was “remain in the EU”. 2/ However, to further complicate matters, leaving the EU with no deal remains unlikely to happen. Though Boris Johnson clearly affirmed that he was ready to accept a Brexit with no deal, UK Parliament is strongly opposed to the idea and the PM will not be able to implement it without the agreement of a majority. Moreover, on 18/07/2019, MPs have passed an amendment aiming to block any attempt by Boris Johnson to prorogue parliament to ensure a no-deal Brexit. This pre-emptive move against the new PM, thought it does not guarantee that a no-deal will not happen, makes it clear that if it was to happen, the UK democracy would be largely questioned. 2 The backstop is a mechanism included in the deal to avoid the comeback of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the UK if the UK leaves the EU without securing an all-encompassing deal. It is interpreted by most MPs as a way to permanently trap the UK in the EU customs union and would prevent the UK to leave the backstop without EU agreement. 3 Period of three weeks in September and October during which all the UK political parties hold their annual conference, thus putting the House of Commons in recess. 4 Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon outlines the procedure for any EU member state to quit unilaterally. Risk&Co 2 3/ The more realistic scenario so far would be a vote of no confidence passed in Parliament. In case Boris Johnson remains determined to leave the EU without a deal, it is likely that a vote of non- confidence will be deployed to stop him. In January, Theresa May survived a no confidence vote initiated by Jeremy Corbyn by 327-308 votes. However, the current parliamentary allegiances have changed since then, and the difference is now tighter. Furthermore, Change UK, which first opposed a no confidence motion, said they would change their mind in a “stop no-deal” scenario. Thus, if the vote of no confidence appears as the last option for Parliament to prevent the UK from leaving the EU without a deal, i.e. happens late October, it is likely to pass. - As for the organisation of a general election, it can only happen in the case of a no- confidence vote against the government. The new Prime Minister will never take the chance of calling an early general election, after Theresa May’s failure in 2017. However, a no- confidence vote could pave the way for a general election if the motion is worded in that sense. If it is approved, the Article 50 will have to be further extended since a new vote of confidence will have to be won by either the current government or another alternative government.
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