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Home , Change UK, Fiona Onasanya, Jeremy Hunt

United-Kingdom Elections in the Conservative Party

Situation on 25.07.2019 D P S-E C T

After failing, for the fourth time, to convince the Parliament to adopt the deal she spent months negociating, PM announced, on 24/05/2019, that she would resign on 07/06 as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, and thus as head of the government. This triggered a new election in the party to chose the new Prime Minister.

On 23/07/2019, as expected, pro-Brexit won the elections against its adversary Jeremy Hunt, thus becoming the new leader of the Conservative party and the United Kingdom new Prime Minister.

Though the UK’s ruling party remains unchanged, the new British Head of Government will largely change the conduct of Source (map): French Ministry of Foreign Affairs the Kingdom’s international relations and impact ’s foreing policy.

ELECTIONS: AN EXPECTED OUTCOME

1/ After three years of dealing with Brexit, Theresa May, British former Prime Minister, failed to deliver Brexit on the original deadline of 29/03/2019. Dealing with the issue had become particularly difficult after she decided to call a snap general election in 2017 ,which left her without the majority she needed to take Britain out of the EU with a deal that could be accepted by her Conservative Party (Tory party1). 2/ Following this first defeat, Theresa May did not manage to convince the opposition to agree to a deal she negotiated with the EU and presented in front of Parliament three times. It was also indisputable that the opposition came from Theresa May’s own party, which remains deeply divided about Brexit. As she was about to face a second vote of no confidence triggered against her leadership, Theresa May’s resignation, announced on 24/05/2019, came as no surprise. The election organised to choose the next Prime Minister, who is supposed to represent the entire British people, happened within the Conservative party and only concerned the Party’s 160,000 members, which represents about 0.25% of the British population. 3/ This has been widely criticised by the opposition parties, which consider that this vote was not showing the people’s will, labelling it “not democratic”. Indeed, instead of organizing a general election to replace a PM it was not supporting anymore, the ruling party elected a new leader, immediately promoted as new PM, thus “by-passing” the general elections where it could have been defeated (and consequently lose power). 4/ Boris Johnson, former (2016-2018) quickly emerged as the frontrunner in the leadership race. On 23/7/2019, he became, without a big surprise, the new Prime Minister, winning against Jeremy Hunt, his successor as foreign secretary, with a two-one margin (92,153 votes for the new PM against 46,656 cast for Mr Hunt).

1 "Tory" is used as an alternative to the word "Conservative" The word emerged the 17th Century, it was the name given to one of the first faction in Parliament by then. It is derived from the Irish Gaelic word tóraidhe, meaning outlaw.

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The new PM is notably known for his eccentric personality and his tendency to attract controversy. He had been London’s Mayor for 8 years (2008-2016) and has been a leading figure in the campaign to leave the EU. With such a charismatic figure as the head of the British government, the main foreign issues London is currently facing will directly be impacted and the British way to deal with them will probably change. WHAT IS NEXT FOR BREXIT? 1/ Brexit remains the most significant and urgent issue the new PM will have to deal with. During the several debates organised as part of the election, Boris Johnson referred to internal aspects of his politics as post-Brexit issues. Even though Boris Johnson affirmed during his campaign that the UK “will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal.”, this apparent determination does not change much in the possible outcomes of Brexit, and hardly change the probabilities already existing. 2/ The scenario in which the existing Withdrawal Agreement is finally accepted in Parliament is unlikely to happen. The agreement was already rejected twice by Parliament, and , leader of the main opposition party (Labour Party), clearly stated that his party would not change its position unless significative changes were made to the deal. Furthermore, the Conservatives’ working majority in Parliament is likely to be reduced by the coming byelection (01/08) to replace Chris Davies, unseated Tory MP, in the House of Commons. The last by-election that took place in to replace Tory MP Fiona Onasanya was won by the Labour Party, on 07/06. Moreover, Boris Johnson was cleared during his campaign, about his intention to renegotiate the deal, and especially on the backstop issue2 that he seeks to remove. - The alternative proposal of the new PM to change the withdrawal agreement remains unlikely. Both Prime Ministers agreed that they will try to renegotiate the Brexit deal imposed by the EU. However, the fact that the UK has a new PM does not mean that anything has changed in Brussels, and the EU made it very clear that it was not ready to re-open the deal. Furthermore, new negotiations would require time, which the UK does not have, since the new deadline granted by the EU to the UK early 06/2019 after Parliament failed to agree on a deal before the original deadline (29/03/2019) is now on 31/10. The House of Commons will go into recess from 25/07/2019 to 03/09/2019, and then again in the middle of September for the party conference season3. The only modifications made to the agreement, in the tight amount of time and with the EU strong position, will be cosmetic changes that will fail to convince the opposition to approve the new deal. - As for the possibility of extending the article 504, the new PM made it clear he was opposed to the idea. Even though, realistically, no major changes will occur in the small amount of time the PM has to make Brexit happen, Boris Johnson made the promise during his campaign that the Brexit would happen on 31/10/2019 with or without a deal. Thus, if he keeps his promise, which is likely to happen, he will no further extends the negotiations, which would lead to the other scenarios developed below. - As for the possibility for the UK to unilaterally revoke article 50, thus cancelling Brexit, it is authorised by the European Court of Justice, but it will certainly not happen, since it would largely undermine the UK as a democracy. The only way this could happen was if the result of a binding referendum was “remain in the EU”. 2/ However, to further complicate matters, leaving the EU with no deal remains unlikely to happen. Though Boris Johnson clearly affirmed that he was ready to accept a Brexit with no deal, UK Parliament is strongly opposed to the idea and the PM will not be able to implement it without the agreement of a majority. Moreover, on 18/07/2019, MPs have passed an amendment aiming to block any attempt by Boris Johnson to prorogue parliament to ensure a no-deal Brexit. This pre-emptive move against the new PM, thought it does not guarantee that a no-deal will not happen, makes it clear that if it was to happen, the UK democracy would be largely questioned.

2 The backstop is a mechanism included in the deal to avoid the comeback of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the UK if the UK leaves the EU without securing an all-encompassing deal. It is interpreted by most MPs as a way to permanently trap the UK in the EU customs union and would prevent the UK to leave the backstop without EU agreement. 3 Period of three weeks in September and October during which all the UK political parties hold their annual conference, thus putting the House of Commons in recess. 4 Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon outlines the procedure for any EU member state to quit unilaterally.

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3/ The more realistic scenario so far would be a vote of no confidence passed in Parliament. In case Boris Johnson remains determined to leave the EU without a deal, it is likely that a vote of non- confidence will be deployed to stop him. In January, Theresa May survived a no confidence vote initiated by Jeremy Corbyn by 327-308 votes. However, the current parliamentary allegiances have changed since then, and the difference is now tighter. Furthermore, Change UK, which first opposed a no confidence motion, said they would change their mind in a “stop no-deal” scenario. Thus, if the vote of no confidence appears as the last option for Parliament to prevent the UK from leaving the EU without a deal, .e. happens late October, it is likely to pass. - As for the organisation of a general election, it can only happen in the case of a no- confidence vote against the government. The new Prime Minister will never take the chance of calling an early general election, after Theresa May’s failure in 2017. However, a no- confidence vote could pave the way for a general election if the motion is worded in that sense. If it is approved, the Article 50 will have to be further extended since a new vote of confidence will have to be won by either the current government or another alternative government. If it is not approved, an early general election would be organised, but only 25 working days later at a date chosen by the PM, which won’t be before the 31/10. - The organisation of a new referendum is unlikely but could happen in case of a general election won by the Labour Party. During his campaign, the new PM clearly said that he would not give MPs a vote on a second referendum. Most MPs will prefer to organise this new referendum rather than leaving the EU without a deal and in the case of a new general election won by the Labour Party, this is a likely outcome. However, if a new referendum takes place, the results will be as tight as for the first one, if we refer to the EU elections results, and to the fact that the British people is tired of dealing with this issue. - Besides, this potential second referendum would also be questioned by the opposition. Unless a binding referendum is held, unlike in 2016 (advisory), which would then give no choice to the government but to implement the people’s choice. Since one question cannot be asked twice in a referendum in the UK, this referendum would most certainly be a confirmatory vote on whatever deal is finally agreed. As whether the question will be about the existing deal, a newly negotiated deal, the option to remain in the EU or a no-deal Brexit, the uncertainty remains. The organisation of such a referendum would at least take 22 weeks, according to University College London’s Constitution Unit experts.

WHAT IMPACTS ON OTHER FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES? 1/ The issue is also at the top of the new PM’s to-do list. On 05/07/2019, the British Royal Marines seized the Iranian-flagged oil tanker Grace 1 off the coast Gibraltar because the ship was suspected of carrying oil to Syria. On 19/07, Gibraltar’s Supreme Court extended to 30 days the detention of the tanker. In retaliation, on the same day, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a British- flagged tanker, Stena Impero, off its coast and transferred the ship to an Iranian port. The British government advised UK ships to avoid the strait of Hormuz. Though Boris Johnson clearly said during his campaign that he would not go to war with Iran, his relationship with could lead the new PM to take some hostile decisions which would deepen the crisis in the region. 2/ is a major investor in the UK ($87.45 billion since 20055) and the diplomatic dispute between the two countries over Hong Kong protests damaged their relations. It is not the first time a diplomatic dispute occurs between the two countries (see meeting with the Dalai Lama in 2012) but it could have dramatic consequences in the context of a post-Brexit, in which the UK would largely rely on Chinese investments. Though Boris Johnson declared to be “pro-China” and said he backed Chinese President’s Belt and Road Initiative, the UK’s strategic relationship with China is fragile. It could notably be impacted by the new PM in the future, as Boris Johnson is known for his repeated gaffes and for his relationship with Donald Trump. The UK, which was a founder member of the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)6, a move that affected its relations with the USA, will have to find a balance between Beijing and Washington. The PM first move concerning the building of the Chinese firm Huawei’s 5G network should be a good indicator of the path he intends to follow.

5 Chinese Investments & Contracts in Britain (2005 - 2019), The American Enterprise Institute. 6 AIIB is the first Asia-based international bank to be independent for the Work Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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3/ The USA is the UK’s closest military ally and a major export market for the country. If London leaves the EU, Washington may become its biggest trading partner. Thus, maintaining a good relationship with Donald Trump is essential for the new PM. Boris Johnson expressed his intention to reach a free trade deal with the US but affirmed that Washington would have to lift its standards if they wanted to do so. An issue that was raised is the possibility for the USA to set up its health and medicine industry in the UK, which could completely destabilise the existing system, in which the NHS is regulating the prices. Furthermore, to reach such a deal with the USA, London would have to leave the European customs union for good, which would question the Irish border. Finally, the price to pay for such an agreement would be even higher if the UK had to align its diplomacy on the USA’s regarding the different foreign issues we mentioned above, and all the others. 4/ Relations with developing countries, including within the African continent, will largely be affected by the Brexit outcomes and by the orientation of the new PM’s foreign policy. According to a report of the UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development) published in 04/2019, the many developing countries in Central America, the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia countries will be impacted by Brexit. Changes in UK market access conditions could have significant consequences for some developing countries which enjoy favourable access conditions due to EU unilateral preferential agreements. - The UK government is aware of the issue and stated that it will enforce bilateral agreements as soon as possible, in order to prevent trade agreements from abruptly ceasing to apply, in the case of a no-deal Brexit. On the other hand, London stated that it would implement the Most Favoured Nation7 to 70 countries, which will increase competition between the developing countries that are protected by the EU agreements. - According to the report, the impact will only be negative for certain products, and will be positive in Southern Africa, where Theresa May has already signed trade agreements in 2018 to replace the existing EU’s agreement, including in Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. The UK has kept good relations with its former colonies on the continent. Theresa May’s foreign policy was African oriented and in 2016, the UK invested around 49 billion euros (UNCTAD) in the continent. In 2018, the former PM visited several African countries. She announced, during a visit in Nigeria, her intention to double the amount of trade exchanges with the country. In Kenya, she stated that the country would keep a custom-free access to the UK market. - However, everything could change with the election of Boris Johnson as new PM, since he seems to be more Asia-oriented and could leave UK’s relations with Africa on the side. Furthermore, South Africa, the UK’s first African partner, would be strongly affected if the UK’s internal market was negatively impacted by a hard Brexit.

7 A WTO principle which means that the same tariffs must be applied to any trading partner, unless an exception applies, for example, that a trading agreement is in place.

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