Conservative Leadership Poll II

Home , Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt

State of Play Analysis Methodology v Two surveys each of n=2,400 eligible voters. v Max margin of error of +/-2.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. v Respondents were residents of the 48 most marginal Conservative held seats in the UK. v 50 respondents were surveyed from each seat. v Minimum quotas set by age, gender, tenure, region, education, occupation, ethnicity and past vote. v Mixed modal online and CATI poll from 10th – 24th April conducted by IQR and Research Interactive. v Online poll from 1st – 9th May 2019 conducted by Research Interactive.

© 2019 C|T Group 2 Analysis Groups v ALL VOTERS are all respondents in the survey and representative of the country as a whole. v SOFT VOTERS are undecided who they will vote for, or are likely to change their mind about their current voting intention. v CONSERVATIVE DEFECTORS voted Conservative in the 2017 General Election but would not vote Conservative if an election was held today. v LEAVE VOTERS are those who voted to Leave at the 2016 EU Referendum. v REMAIN VOTERS are those who voted to Remain at the 2016 EU Referendum. v CONSERVATIVE VOTERS are those who would vote Conservative if a General Election was held today.

49% TOTAL BREXIT 46% 65% 21% Brexit - not specified whether for or against 18% 23% 19% Brexit - pro 15% 43% 10% Brexit - against / 2nd referendum 3% 8% NHS 8% 3% 12% 8% Party or policy 6%8% 5% Political instability / current mess 4%6% 2% Other 2%2% 4% Nothing 4% 10% 3% Don't know 5% 9% Total Soft Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) If a General Election was held today, what is the most important issue to you that would influence if and how you vote? That issue could be about the 5 parties, the candidates, or international, national or local issues. Satisfaction with Government Handling of Brexit

3% Very satisfied 5% 1%

10% Somewhat satisfied 11% 9%

11% Neutral 17% 5%

19% Somewhat dissatisfied 22% 13%

57% Very dissatisfied 44% 73%

1% Don’t know 0% 0%

Total Soft Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

25% Conservative 0% 28% 29% Labour 5% 30% 7% Liberal Democrats 7%8% 6% UKIP 5% 12% 3% Green 3%4% 6% Independent Group/ Change UK 6%8% 15% Nigel Farage's Brexit Party 13% 53% 1% Plaid Cymru 0%1% 3% SNP 0% 4% 1% Other 0%2% 5% Don't Know 3% 10%

Total Definite Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a General Election was held today, which party would receive your vote? Would it be the 8 Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, an independent, or some other minor party candidate? General Election Voting Intention Trend (Gave Voting Intention)

47%

39%

30% 26%

16%

8% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2017 GE Result All Voters Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP Independent Group/ Change UK Nigel Farage's Brexit Party Other Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a General Election was held today, which party would receive your vote? Would it be the 9 Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, an independent, or some other minor party candidate? Conservative Defectors Current Voting Intention

Conservative Defectors 53% 12% 8% 7% 5% 4%2% 10%

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party UKIP The Independent Group / Change UK Liberal Democrats Labour Greens Plaid Cymru Other (please specify) Don’t know

Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a General Election was held today, which party would receive your vote? Would it be the 10 Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, an independent, or some other minor party candidate? Conservative Defectors’ EU Referendum Vote

Leave 81%

Remain 19%

Proportion from T1

Total 70% 30%

The Labour Party 79% 21%

The Conservative Party 77% 23%

Proportion from T1 Hard Soft

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Thinking again about your vote for [PARTY NOMINATED], how likely is it that you would change your mind and vote for a different party before the next 12 general election? Rebuilding Conservative Support Preferred Future Relationship with the EU

37% No Deal Brexit 34% 61% 9% 69% 14% Theresa May's Brexit Deal 12% 17% 10%11% 8% Customs Union 7% 10% 5% 9% 31% Second Referendum 27% 7% 57% 11% 4% Other 4% 1% 7% 2% 8% Don’t know 13% 7%8% 3%

Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

51% 41% Total a Leaver 82% 17% 75%

24% 31% No difference/ Does not matter 15% 34% 16%

23% 25% Total a Remainer 2% 46% 9%

2% 3% Don’t know 1% 3% 0%

Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

22% An MP with a completely new vision for the country 18% 26%

An MP with the experience in government 17% 22% to make the current system work 8%

An MP with both experience in government 55% and a new vision for the country 51% 63%

6% Don’t know 9% 3%

Total Soft Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Out of the following options only, which one comes closest to describing the kind of leader you would like to see lead the Conservative Party? 16 Name Recognition & Net Favourability Net Favourability

NET -VE -5% NET +VE Rory Stewart -6% -3% -8% Matt Hancock -8% -7% -9% Sajid Javid -5% -6% -12% Andrea Leadsom -3% 0% -14% Esther McVey -9% -10% -16% Dominic Raab -2% -6% -17% Boris Johnson 25% 20% -26% Jeremy Hunt -20% -13% -27% Michael Gove -14% -12% -33% Theresa May -42% -27% -38% Jeremy Corbyn -82% -63%

Proportion from T1 Total Conservative Defectors Leave Voters

© 2019 C|T Group Q) I will now read out the names of some people who are active in national life or your local area. Please say if you have a favourable, neutral or unfavourable 18 view of them. If you don’t know the name of the person, that’s alright, just say so. Conservative Leadership Preferences Conservative Leader Preference: All Options (>4%)

20% Boris Johnson 18% 31% 8% 40% 6% Sajid Javid 3% 8% 2% 10% 6% Jacob Rees-Mogg 5% 10% 2% 13% 5% Michael Gove 5%5% 3%4% 4% Ruth Davidson 2%2% 3% 6% 4% Philip Hammond 3%4% 2% 4% 6% Other 5%5% 6% 8% 32% Don't know 24% 37% 20% 42%

Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) If Theresa May stands down as Prime Minister, who do you believe should become the next leader of the Conservative Party? 20 Impact on Likelihood to Vote Conservative (Conservative Defectors) GAIN VOTE Boris Johnson (+11) 28% 19% 16% 3% 13% 22%

Dominic Raab (-10) 5% 13% 37% 15% 18% 11%

Michael Gove (-14) 10% 16% 29% 5% 18% 22%

Sajid Javid (-16) 5% 16% 37% 6% 18% 19%

Andrea Leadsom (-18) 4% 13% 37% 11% 20% 15%

Matt Hancock (-19) 4% 4% 41% 26% 15% 11% LOSE VOTE Jeremy Hunt (-21) 2% 13% 43% 6% 20% 16%

Definitely more likely to vote Conservative Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative Neutral Don’t know / Never heard of them Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative Definitely less likely to vote Conservative Proportion from T2

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Supposing any of the following people become the next leader of the Conservative party, please indicate whether each person leader would make you more 21 or less likely to vote for the Conservative party. Impact on Likelihood to Vote Conservative (Brexit Party and UKIP voters) GAIN VOTE Boris Johnson (+36) 32% 27% 17% 2% 13% 10%

Michael Gove (-6) 13% 18% 28% 4% 17% 20%

Dominic Raab (-10) 7% 13% 36% 14% 19% 11%

Andrea Leadsom (-15) 5% 14% 38% 9% 15% 19%

Sajid Javid (-16) 5% 18% 32% 6% 15% 24%

Matt Hancock (-27) 4% 3% 36% 23% 14% 20% LOSE VOTE Jeremy Hunt (-28) 3% 12% 36% 6% 22% 21%

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Supposing any of the following people become the next leader of the Conservative party, please indicate whether each person leader would make you more 22 or less likely to vote for the Conservative party. Impact on Likelihood to Vote Conservative (Leave Voters)

GAIN VOTE Boris Johnson (+13) 25% 19% 23% 4% 11% 20%

Andrea Leadsom (-5) 6% 14% 43% 13% 11% 14%

Dominic Raab (-7) 5% 12% 43% 17% 12% 11%

Sajid Javid (-8) 6% 17% 37% 10% 15% 15%

Matt Hancock (-8) 3% 9% 43% 24% 8% 13%

Michael Gove (-10) 10% 13% 38% 7% 16% 17% LOSE VOTE Jeremy Hunt (-11) 7% 15% 38% 7% 16% 17%

© 2019 C|T Group Q) Supposing any of the following people become the next leader of the Conservative party, please indicate whether each person leader would make you more 23 or less likely to vote for the Conservative party. Best Candidate To Defeat Corbyn (>4%)

16% 23% Boris Johnson 10% 35% 32% 35% 8% 12% Michael Gove 7%8% 10% 12% 6%7% Sajid Javid 6% 9% 5% 9% 6%7% Jeremy Hunt 6%7% 2% 8% 5% 7% Jacob Rees-Mogg 1% 8% 2% 12% 3% 4% Amber Rudd 2% 7% 2% 4% 3% 4% Dominic Raab 3% 5% 2% 9% 9%10% Other 10% 9% 11% 32% 39% Don’t know 21% 44% 18% 20%

Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Conservative Voters Proportion from T2

© 2019 C|T Group Q) And finally, who do you think would be best placed, as Conservative leader, to defeat Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party in a general election? 24 Candidates’ Attributes Attribute Associations (1 of 2) (Gave Answer) Is optimistic 49% 12% 6% 13% 19% Is strong on foreign policy 46% 14% 8% 17% 15% Respects the EU referendum results 45% 14% 12% 10% 19% Has the right position on Brexit 44% 13% 8% 11% 24% Will unite the UK after Brexit 40% 14% 8% 11% 26% Can strike trade deals for Britain with other countries 40% 12% 9% 16% 24% Shares your values and understands your concerns 40% 13% 7% 11% 29% Is experienced 40% 20% 5% 19% 17% Will secure a better future for the UK 39% 15% 7% 14% 24% Offers a sense of hope 39% 14% 9% 14% 24% Has failed to keep their promises 39% 22% 6% 14% 19% Will provide Britain with a clear direction 38% 16% 9% 14% 24% Is a strong and effective leader 38% 16% 8% 16% 23% Has the right approach on immigration 38% 12% 10% 13% 27% On the side of people like you 36% 9% 10% 15% 30% Will encourage positive change 36% 14% 10% 11% 28%

More like Boris Johnson More like Michael Gove More like Dominic Raab More like Jeremy Hunt More like another member of the Conservative Party Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) I’m now going to read you some qualities and characteristics that some people have used to describe various members of the Conservative Party. For each, 26 please tell me whether you think it is a better descriptor of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, or another member of the Conservative party. Attribute Associations (2 of 2) (Gave Answer) Is strong on national defence 36% 14% 8% 18% 24% Will ensure the system works for everyone, not just the few 34% 11% 11% 13% 31% Is competent and capable 34% 20% 9% 16% 21% Is focused on the right issues 34% 13% 11% 14% 28% Is honest 33% 12% 10% 17% 28% Would be responsive and flexible to changing events 33% 16% 9% 16% 27% Would be best able to respond in a crisis 32% 15% 10% 15% 27% Will reduce the threat of terrorism 32% 17% 10% 13% 29% Is trustworthy 30% 11% 10% 20% 29% Is best for transport 29% 18% 11% 10% 32% Is best for protecting and creating jobs 27% 15% 9% 18% 31% Is tough on crime 26% 20% 14% 12% 28% Has the right approach on welfare and benefits 26% 18% 11% 18% 28% Is best for the NHS 23% 12% 9% 28% 29% Is best able to manage the UK economy 22% 21% 9% 19% 29% Will improve the UK’s education system 19% 26% 9% 17% 29% Is best for housing 19% 20% 15% 13% 34%

More like Boris Johnson More like Michael Gove More like Dominic Raab More like Jeremy Hunt More like another member of the Conservative Party Proportion from T1

© 2019 C|T Group Q) I’m now going to read you some qualities and characteristics that some people have used to describe various members of the Conservative Party. For each, 27 please tell me whether you think it is a better descriptor of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, or another member of the Conservative party. Current Opinion Drivers Model Visualisation

High +ve Influence DRIVES DRIVES SUPPORT SUPPORT TOWARDS A TOWARDS B

DRIVES DRIVES SUPPORT AWAY SUPPORT AWAY FROM A FROM B High -ve Influence

Proportion from T1 Drivers of Preference for Boris Johnson (All Respondents) Driving Support for Another Candidate Driving Support for Boris Johnson

Driving Opposition to Another Candidate Driving Opposition to Boris Johnson

Proportion from T1 Drivers of Preference for Boris Johnson (Conservative Defectors) Driving Support for Another Candidate Driving Support for Boris Johnson

Driving Opposition to Another Candidate Driving Opposition to Boris Johnson

Proportion from T1 Drivers of Preference for Boris Johnson (Leave Voters) Driving Support for Another Candidate Driving Support for Boris Johnson

Driving Opposition to Another Candidate Driving Opposition to Boris Johnson

Proportion from T1 State of Play Analysis