Conservative Leadership Poll II
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State of Play Analysis Methodology v Two surveys each of n=2,400 eligible voters. v Max margin of error of +/-2.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. v Respondents were residents of the 48 most marginal Conservative held seats in the UK. v 50 respondents were surveyed from each seat. v Minimum quotas set by age, gender, tenure, region, education, occupation, ethnicity and past vote. v Mixed modal online and CATI poll from 10th – 24th April conducted by IQR and Research Interactive. v Online poll from 1st – 9th May 2019 conducted by Research Interactive. © 2019 C|T Group 2 Analysis Groups v ALL VOTERS are all respondents in the survey and representative of the country as a whole. v SOFT VOTERS are undecided who they will vote for, or are likely to change their mind about their current voting intention. v CONSERVATIVE DEFECTORS voted Conservative in the 2017 General Election but would not vote Conservative if an election was held today. v LEAVE VOTERS are those who voted to Leave at the 2016 EU Referendum. v REMAIN VOTERS are those who voted to Remain at the 2016 EU Referendum. v CONSERVATIVE VOTERS are those who would vote Conservative if a General Election was held today. © 2019 C|T Group 3 Political Context National Issue Agenda (>4%) 49% TOTAL BREXIT 46% 65% 21% Brexit - not specified whether for or against 18% 23% 19% Brexit - pro 15% 43% 10% Brexit - against / 2nd referendum 3% 8% NHS 8% 3% 12% 8% Party or policy 6%8% 5% Political instability / current mess 4%6% 2% Other 2%2% 4% Nothing 4% 10% 3% Don't know 5% 9% Total Soft Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) If a General Election was held today, what is the most important issue to you that would influence if and how you vote? That issue could be about the 5 parties, the candidates, or international, national or local issues. Satisfaction with Government Handling of Brexit 3% Very satisfied 5% 1% 10% Somewhat satisfied 11% 9% 11% Neutral 17% 5% 19% Somewhat dissatisfied 22% 13% 57% Very dissatisfied 44% 73% 1% Don’t know 0% 0% Total Soft Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) To what extent are you satisfied with the way in which the Conservative Government has handled Brexit? 6 General Election Voting Intention Current General Election Voting Intention 25% Conservative 0% 28% 29% Labour 5% 30% 7% Liberal Democrats 7%8% 6% UKIP 5% 12% 3% Green 3%4% 6% Independent Group/ Change UK 6%8% 15% Nigel Farage's Brexit Party 13% 53% 1% Plaid Cymru 0%1% 3% SNP 0% 4% 1% Other 0%2% 5% Don't Know 3% 10% Total Definite Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a General Election was held today, which party would receive your vote? Would it be the 8 Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, an independent, or some other minor party candidate? General Election Voting Intention Trend (Gave Voting Intention) 47% 39% 30% 26% 16% 8% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2017 GE Result All Voters Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP Independent Group/ Change UK Nigel Farage's Brexit Party Other Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a General Election was held today, which party would receive your vote? Would it be the 9 Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, an independent, or some other minor party candidate? Conservative Defectors Current Voting Intention Conservative Defectors 53% 12% 8% 7% 5% 4%2% 10% Nigel Farage's Brexit Party UKIP The Independent Group / Change UK Liberal Democrats Labour Greens Plaid Cymru Other (please specify) Don’t know Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Regardless of how likely you would be to actually vote, if a General Election was held today, which party would receive your vote? Would it be the 10 Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, an independent, or some other minor party candidate? Conservative Defectors’ EU Referendum Vote Leave 81% Remain 19% Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) And how did you vote in the 2016 EU Referendum? 11 How Likely Voters Are To Switch Total 70% 30% The Labour Party 79% 21% The Conservative Party 77% 23% Proportion from T1 Hard Soft © 2019 C|T Group Q) Thinking again about your vote for [PARTY NOMINATED], how likely is it that you would change your mind and vote for a different party before the next 12 general election? Rebuilding Conservative Support Preferred Future Relationship with the EU 37% No Deal Brexit 34% 61% 9% 69% 14% Theresa May's Brexit Deal 12% 17% 10%11% 8% Customs Union 7% 10% 5% 9% 31% Second Referendum 27% 7% 57% 11% 4% Other 4% 1% 7% 2% 8% Don’t know 13% 7%8% 3% Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Out of the following options only which is your preferred option for the UK’s future relationship with the EU? 14 Next Conservative Leader: EU Views 51% 41% Total a Leaver 82% 17% 75% 24% 31% No difference/ Does not matter 15% 34% 16% 23% 25% Total a Remainer 2% 46% 9% 2% 3% Don’t know 1% 3% 0% Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Do you believe that the next leader of the Conservative Party should be a Leaver or a Remainer when it comes to Brexit? 15 Next Conservative Leader: Type 22% An MP with a completely new vision for the country 18% 26% An MP with the experience in government 17% 22% to make the current system work 8% An MP with both experience in government 55% and a new vision for the country 51% 63% 6% Don’t know 9% 3% Total Soft Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Out of the following options only, which one comes closest to describing the kind of leader you would like to see lead the Conservative Party? 16 Name Recognition & Net Favourability Net Favourability NET -VE -5% NET +VE Rory Stewart -6% -3% -8% Matt Hancock -8% -7% -9% Sajid Javid -5% -6% -12% Andrea Leadsom -3% 0% -14% Esther McVey -9% -10% -16% Dominic Raab -2% -6% -17% Boris Johnson 25% 20% -26% Jeremy Hunt -20% -13% -27% Michael Gove -14% -12% -33% Theresa May -42% -27% -38% Jeremy Corbyn -82% -63% Proportion from T1 Total Conservative Defectors Leave Voters © 2019 C|T Group Q) I will now read out the names of some people who are active in national life or your local area. Please say if you have a favourable, neutral or unfavourable 18 view of them. If you don’t know the name of the person, that’s alright, just say so. Conservative Leadership Preferences Conservative Leader Preference: All Options (>4%) 20% Boris Johnson 18% 31% 8% 40% 6% Sajid Javid 3% 8% 2% 10% 6% Jacob Rees-Mogg 5% 10% 2% 13% 5% Michael Gove 5%5% 3%4% 4% Ruth Davidson 2%2% 3% 6% 4% Philip Hammond 3%4% 2% 4% 6% Other 5%5% 6% 8% 32% Don't know 24% 37% 20% 42% Total Soft Voters Leave Voters Remain Voters Conservative Defectors Proportion from T1 © 2019 C|T Group Q) If Theresa May stands down as Prime Minister, who do you believe should become the next leader of the Conservative Party? 20 Impact on Likelihood to Vote Conservative (Conservative Defectors) GAIN VOTE Boris Johnson (+11) 28% 19% 16% 3% 13% 22% Dominic Raab (-10) 5% 13% 37% 15% 18% 11% Michael Gove (-14) 10% 16% 29% 5% 18% 22% Sajid Javid (-16) 5% 16% 37% 6% 18% 19% Andrea Leadsom (-18) 4% 13% 37% 11% 20% 15% Matt Hancock (-19) 4% 4% 41% 26% 15% 11% LOSE VOTE Jeremy Hunt (-21) 2% 13% 43% 6% 20% 16% Definitely more likely to vote Conservative Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative Neutral Don’t know / Never heard of them Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative Definitely less likely to vote Conservative Proportion from T2 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Supposing any of the following people become the next leader of the Conservative party, please indicate whether each person leader would make you more 21 or less likely to vote for the Conservative party. Impact on Likelihood to Vote Conservative (Brexit Party and UKIP voters) GAIN VOTE Boris Johnson (+36) 32% 27% 17% 2% 13% 10% Michael Gove (-6) 13% 18% 28% 4% 17% 20% Dominic Raab (-10) 7% 13% 36% 14% 19% 11% Andrea Leadsom (-15) 5% 14% 38% 9% 15% 19% Sajid Javid (-16) 5% 18% 32% 6% 15% 24% Matt Hancock (-27) 4% 3% 36% 23% 14% 20% LOSE VOTE Jeremy Hunt (-28) 3% 12% 36% 6% 22% 21% Definitely more likely to vote Conservative Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative Neutral Don’t know / Never heard of them Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative Definitely less likely to vote Conservative Proportion from T2 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Supposing any of the following people become the next leader of the Conservative party, please indicate whether each person leader would make you more 22 or less likely to vote for the Conservative party. Impact on Likelihood to Vote Conservative (Leave Voters) GAIN VOTE Boris Johnson (+13) 25% 19% 23% 4% 11% 20% Andrea Leadsom (-5) 6% 14% 43% 13% 11% 14% Dominic Raab (-7) 5% 12% 43% 17% 12% 11% Sajid Javid (-8) 6% 17% 37% 10% 15% 15% Matt Hancock (-8) 3% 9% 43% 24% 8% 13% Michael Gove (-10) 10% 13% 38% 7% 16% 17% LOSE VOTE Jeremy Hunt (-11) 7% 15% 38% 7% 16% 17% Definitely more likely to vote Conservative Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative Neutral Don’t know / Never heard of them Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative Definitely less likely to vote Conservative Proportion from T2 © 2019 C|T Group Q) Supposing any of the following people become the next leader of the Conservative party, please indicate whether each person leader would make you more 23 or less likely to vote for the Conservative party.