in a Post-Petroleum World Contributions of Communal Studies

Plenary Presentation International Communal Studies Association 9th Triannual Meeting Damanhur, Italy 29 giugno 07

Albert Bates Global Village Institute for The full paper and this slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License sustainability

what does that mean? Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air & ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change February 2007

Climate Change

ClimateClimate ChangeChange

Source: Bates, Climate in Crisis (1990) Climate Change IPCC-3 (2001) projected temperature rise scenarios vs. IPCC-4 (2006) observed 20°C

18°C You are here 17°C

16°C

1900 2000 2100

Source: Bates, Post-Petroleum Survival Guide (2006) Climate Change TheThe FaFarmrm

The Farm

Unanticipated: isotherm creep Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change

The European Heat Wave of August 2003 killed 35,000 Key Findings IPCC-4 - Holdren Group - Pentagon - Stern - Lynas - Lovelock

IPCC-3 (2001) understated the risk

It is possible we could see a 6.4°C increase by 2100

Exceeding 2 - 2.5°C above 1750 levels would entail intolerable impacts (ie: risk of human extinction) due to tipping points

We are already 1°C above 1750 levels

The observed rate of warming is accelerating

There is no guarantee that stopping all carbon emissions now would halt the rise of temperature 1°C Increase - Right Now Ice-free sea absorbs more heat and accelerates global warming; fresh water lost from a third of the world's surface; low-lying coastlines flooded; hurricanes increase; droughts 2°C Increase - the Age of Loneliness South Europe dies of heatstroke; Amazon ravaged by fire; stressed plants beginning to emit carbon rather than absorbing it; a third of all species go extinct 3°C Increase Carbon release from vegetation and soils speeds global warming; death of the Amazon rainforest; super-hurricanes hit coastal cities; starvation in Africa 4°C Increase Runaway thaw of permafrost makes global warming unstoppable; much of Britain made uninhabitable by severe flooding; Mediterranean region abandoned This is not inevitable...

5°C Increase Methane from ocean floor accelerates global warming; ice gone from both poles; humans migrate in search of food and try vainly to live like animals off the land 6°C Increase Life on Earth ends with apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs; only fungi survive ... possibly. Climate Change

Source: Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, UK

The Hockey Stick Climate Change

Billions of Bbls per Yr 4

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0 1950 1960 1970 1980 P1990ea2000 k Oil Dramatic Improvement in Oil 3.5 Production Field Technology 3.0

2.5 80 PRODUCTION 2.0 (Billions of Barrels per PRICE 1.5 Year) (2003 $ per Price barrels) 1.0

0.5

0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

High prices & advanced technology did not reverse trends!

SAIC/MISI WORLD OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND: LOWER 48 PRODUCTION PATTERN & EXTRAPOLATED DEMAND GROWTH

Extrapolated Demand - Growing World Economy

120

100 Shortage

80

PRODUCTION 60 (MM bpd) L 48 production Assumed: 40 pattern • Demand @ 2% 20 • Oil Decline @ 2% 0 • Peak @ 100 MM bpd -20 -10 0 +10 +20 (Not a prediction) YEARS BEFORE / AFTER OIL PEAK

SAIC / MISI k? ea hen is the P W Confidence in particular year coming at or following onset HIGH World Oil Production 2002-2006 and 5-year Average

MODERATE

2005 2010 2020 2035

Even if we know when it will break, what is the shape of the curl?

Ghawar Production, 2006 ()

Saudi Arabia Production and Exploration, 2001-2006 (The Oil Drum) Peak Oil

Observed and Projected Distribution of Liquid Fuel Reserves, 1930-2050 (ASPO) Peak Oil The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. —U.S. Department of Energy, March 2005 [F]ederal agencies currently have no Peak Oil coordinated or well-defined strategy either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or to mitigate its consequences. This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk.

— U.S. Govt Accountability Office, March 30, 2007 Sweden will: Peak Oil

. Ration energy to all industries . Convert entirely to biofuels and passive solar for space heating . Continue the CO2 tax introduced in 1991 . Increase the tax on energy use threefold by 2010 . Participate in the Kyoto trading regime . Continue retiring nuclear plants as wind power comes on line . Develop 10 TWhr of installed wind energy by 2015, well more than provided by the 8 remaining nukes Protocol Peak Oil a. No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce; b. Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate, deducting any indigenous production. Scenarios

Last One Standing Peak Oil - the way of WAR and COMPETITION Waiting for the Magic Elixir - FALSE HOPES, WISHFUL THINKING and DENIAL PowerDown - the path of SELF LIMITATION, COOPERATION & SHARING Building Lifeboats - the path of COMMUNITY SOLIDARITY and PRESERVATION

From ‘POWERDOWN’ - New Society Publishers, 2004 Climax Industrial Compost-Modernism Peak Oil Modernism () Pre-industrial sustainable Future low energy culture sustainable culture

1000 1500 2000 2500 Yrs AD

after D. Holmgren, Permaculture (2002) World Population

9 billion

6 billion

3 billion

1 billion Cows

3.2 billion

2 billion

1 billion

.0.5 billion Bacteria in bottle double

every minute

The bottle is full in one day

www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645 www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/

We stand at an unique historical moment.

Hairless Apes in Gasoline Crack of History? —Wm. H. Burroughs Civilizations collapse.

PopulationPopulation wellwell aboveabove historicallyhistorically stablestable levelslevels PoliticalPolitical corruptioncorruption andand mindlessmindless intriguesintrigues TooToo manymany farmers,farmers, tootoo manymany crops,crops, tootoo muchmuch ofof thethe landscapelandscape employedemployed inin productionproduction——soilsoil fertilityfertility crashcrash DeforestationDeforestation andand desertificationdesertification ClimateClimate changechange oror extremeextreme ofof regionalregional climateclimate pendulumpendulum DiminishedDiminished resilienceresilience toto naturalnatural disasterdisaster IncreasedIncreased migration/fightingmigration/fighting inin searchsearch ofof resourcesresources DiseaseDisease andand pestilencepestilence PopulationPopulation crashcrash Easter Island: They Didn’t Make it! Ticking Time Bombs

Chemical plants & refineries in a reduced-regulation environment

Nuclear wastes, reactors, and components

Bioweaponry, and accidental runaway genes

Super-viruses and bacteria

Financial derivatives and currency collapse

Cowboys in government Climate Change + Peak Oil + Toxic Timebombs + Population Explosion

= Planetary Life Disaster

We do not have long. Solutions The Batestrix Extreme Warming 5-15°C

Stable Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy

Slightly Warmer < 1°C Extreme Warming 5-15°C

Stable Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy

Slightly Warmer < 1°C Extreme Warming 5-15°C

Stable Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy The Postman

Slightly Warmer < 1°C Extreme Warming 5-15°C Plan A Plan D Worst Case

Stable Plan B Plan C Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy Plan B Plan C

Plan A Plan D Best Case

Slightly Warmer < 1°C Plan A Business As Usual

Sustained Growth Use the harder to get, more expensive fossil fuels, even though they will generate much more CO2. Enhanced Recovery Tar Sands Coal to Liquid Nuclear Fission, Eventually Fusion

Michael Chertoff Hydrogen from Fossil or Nuclear Resource Wars, Halliburton Archer Daniels Midland, Monsanto

Plan B Some Alternative (The Magic Bullet)

Al Gore Sustained Growth Plug-in Prius LEEDS Triple Bottom Line Photovoltaics, Wind, Tidal, Biogas Amory Lovins Hydrogen from Solar; Fuel Cells

William McDonough The Thurston Howard IIIs Plan C Cutback, Curtailment, Powerdown

“Sustainable Retreat” - Lovelock “Conservor Community” - Murphy “Re-localization” - Darley “Voluntary Simplicity” - Robin Victory gardens Horses Pat Murphy Home fuels Gilligan’s Island

Vicki Robin Plan D Die-Off, Civil Collapse, Anarchic Transition

Meltdown

Warlords Packs of feral pets Survivalists with guns

Succession by other species Richard Heinberg

James Howard Kunstler Extreme Warming 5-15°C Plan A Plan D Stable Hot Hot Chaos

Stable Plan B Plan C Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy Plan B Plan C

Stable Cool Cool Chaos Plan A Plan D

Slightly Warmer < 1°C Linearity Seduction of Antrocentricity

Have we fulfilled our purpose as a species?

Meme being propagated is dangerous nonsense; need a rapid change to a smart, peaceful meme. time to clean up after the party... Al Gore’s Proposals

1. Immediate "carbon freeze" and 90% reductions by 2050. 2. Tax CO2. 3. Help low-income people make the transition. 4. Move up Kyoto from 2012 to 2010. 5. Moratorium on new coal-fired plants. 6. "ELECTRANET" international smart electric grid. 7. Raise CAFE standards -- 100 mpg? 1000 mpg? 8. Ban incandescent light bulbs. 9. “Connie Mae” mortgage lending keyed to green building. 10. Required disclosure of carbon emissions by all businesses.

... no mention of “lifestyle” Plant Trees. Swales, Water Features, and Reforestation What will our future be like? What do we dream?

What do we dream for ourselves? Which is more valuable?

1. Time

2. Money

Take your time. What is our vision of utopia? Hope complementary currencies non-violent communication ecovillages consensus eco-cities shared purse organic farming holistic medicine relocalization planning

CSAs, CSEs, CSMs vegan cuisine natural building alternative education Hope

Rest assured, there is enough land to produce solar energy in many forms, including alcohol, for a world that makes energy- efficient design a priority…. The key to the success of that long-term experiment is permaculture. — David Blume

www.permaculture.com PermaculturePermaculture EthicsEthics

1. Earth Care 2. People Care 3. Surplus Share www.permaculture.com Wallace and Gromit Paradigm

Small community Neighborhood economics Vegetable Competitions Devices based on counterweights, springs, wind-up, gravity flow, magnets, wheels City Gardens Boston Boston Cuba’s Special Period

Today an estimated 50 percent of Havana's vegetables come from inside the city, while in other Cuban towns and cities urban gardens produce from 80 percent to more than 100 percent of what they need. Photo by John Morgan With meat scarce and fresh local vegetables in abundance since 1995, Cubans now eat a healthy, low-fat, much more vegetarian, diet.

Photos by Fundacion Antonio Nunez Jimenez Natural Food (Tsubu-tsubu): Soba (buckwheat noodles), millet and sorghum (fried), wild vegetables and pickles.

Total Fertility is declining

Three countries with increasing Three countries with declining fertility rates 1995-2006 fertility rates 1995-2006

CAUTION: There is a demographic speed regulator Total Fertility is declining Source: World Database of Happiness Lifeboat Strategy

The metaphor has its limits. Lifeboats are temporary, and they can swamp

We stand at an unique historical moment...

... will we surf or swim? It’s our choice. “Don’t ask if there is a conspiracy at work. If you are not in one, start one.” — Catherine Austin Fitts

Water & Sanitation Food Growing Food Preservation Civil Organization Shelter Medical Money & Trade Security & Nonviolence Quality of Life Population

This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License

www.i4at.org institute for appropriate technology