The National Walking and
Cycling Network in Scotland
(NWCN)
Baseline Monitoring Report 2016
August 2017
Circulation External – Public circulation status:
Current status Final draft for publication
Date issued: 31st August 2017
Quality David Corner – Quality and Research Manager assurance: Suzanne Motherwell – Evaluation Manager Stephen Frost – Head of Research and Monitoring Unit
Authors: Sam Dennis and Anjali Badloe under the direction of Suzanne Motherwell
Front cover image credit: Lucy Clarke / Sustrans © 2017, Sustrans, All rights reserved
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Contents
Contents ...... 1 Executive Summary ...... 6 Background ...... 6 Introduction ...... 6 Methodology ...... 6 Headline findings ...... 7 Outcome 1: Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland ...... 7 Outcome 2: Strengthen local economies ...... 8 Outcome 3: Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices ...... 8 Headline figures: ...... 9 1 Introduction ...... 10 1.1 Purpose of the report ...... 10 1.2 Report structure ...... 11 2 Methodology ...... 12 2.1 Site specific data collection ...... 12 Route user surveys and manual counts ...... 12 Automatic cycle and pedestrian counters ...... 12 2.2 General (online) data collection ...... 12 NWCN public survey ...... 12 NWCN business survey ...... 13 2.3 Analytical approaches ...... 13 3 Outcome 1 - Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland ...... 14 3.1 Increased walking and cycling usage of the NWCN ...... 14 Network annual usage estimate ...... 14 Usage characteristics of the NWCN ...... 15 Use and perceptions of the NCWN from the public survey ...... 18 3.2 Increased walking and cycling usage on the NWCN among under-represented groups ...... 22 Demographics of NWCN users ...... 22 Perceptions of and barriers to using the NWCN among the public ...... 26 3.3 Increased purposeful walking and cycling trips on the NWCN ...... 29 Purposeful trips on the NWCN ...... 29 3.4 Increased tourism visitor usage of the NWCN ...... 30 Tourism usage of the NWCN ...... 30 3.5 Feedback from NWCN users that expresses positive sentiments ...... 31 Perceptions of the NWCN among route users ...... 31 Motivations for using the NWCN among the public ...... 32
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4 Outcome 2 - Strengthen local economies ...... 35 4.1 Positive feedback from local businesses on/near the NWCN ...... 35 Perceived benefits of the NWCN among the business community ...... 35 4.2 Reports of increased business revenue from local businesses on/near the NWCN ...... 38 Revenue impact of the NWCN on local businesses ...... 38 4.3 Evidence of tourism related contributions to the economy from usage of the NWCN ...... 40 Economic benefits of leisure pedestrian and cyclist usage on the NWCN ...... 40 5 Outcome 3 - Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices ...... 41 5.1 Reported increases in physical activity and attainment of recommended weekly physical activity levels ...... 41 Physical activity on the NWCN ...... 41 Physical activity on the NWCN among the general public ...... 44 5.2 Reported increases in active travel (evidence of new and/or increased walking and cycling activity on the NWCN) ...... 46 Route user surveys / automatic counter data and network usage estimate ...... 46 5.3 Reduction in perception of level of risk as a barrier to active travel ...... 47 Perceptions of safety among users of the NWCN ...... 47 Perceptions of safety on the NWCN among the general public ...... 47 6 Conclusion ...... 49 6.1 Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland ...... 49 6.2 Strengthen local economies ...... 50 6.3 Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices ...... 50 6.4 Headline figures ...... 51 7 Appendix...... 52 7.1 Methodology ...... 53 Monitoring tools ...... 53 A) Site-specific data collection ...... 53 Route user surveys and manual counts ...... 53 B) General (online) data collection ...... 55 NWCN public survey ...... 55 NWCN business survey ...... 56 Analytical approaches ...... 57 Baseline Annual Usage Estimates from automatic counters and manual counts.. 57 Estimating walking and cycling usage on the NWCN ...... 57 i. Spatial mapping of the routes of interest and available usage monitoring points ...... 59 ii. Categorisation of sections of route on the network according to usage- relevant variables ...... 59 iii. Population Gravity ...... 60
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iv. Usage attractor indicator ...... 60 v. Extrapolation of usage data across route sections with similar usage-relevant variables ...... 61 vi. Development of a network usage estimate ...... 61 Estimating the economic impact of the NWCN ...... 62 Limitations and challenges ...... 62 7.2 Route User Intercept Survey Overview ...... 69 7.3 Public Survey Respondent Demographics ...... 70 Age ...... 70 Ethnicity ...... 70 Gender ...... 71 Socio-economic status ...... 71 7.4 Business Survey Respondent Details ...... 73 Business type ...... 73 Awareness of the NWCN ...... 74 Business revenue ...... 74 Business seasonality ...... 75 Business age ...... 76 Employment ...... 76 Customer base ...... 77 7.5 Public and Business Survey Open-text Analysis ...... 78
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Executive Summary
Background Implementation of a National Walking and Cycling Network (NWCN)1 in Scotland, in line with the Scottish Government’s third National Planning Framework (NPF3), is being led by Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) in partnership with Sustrans and Scottish Canals.
Development of the NWCN will build on the existing network of walking and cycling routes in Scotland by closing key gaps, upgrading connecting routes, encouraging the multi-use of paths and improving links with public transport. The Scottish Government’s vision is that this network of long distance paths and trails will support recreation, tourism and active travel by:
Connecting, and facilitating seamless passage through Scotland’s seven cities; Linking key natural and cultural heritage visitor destinations and public transport hubs; Providing recreation and active travel opportunities for people of all ages and abilities; Appealing to Scottish residents and visitors from the UK and beyond; Providing comparable quality and facilities to our neighbours in Northern Europe.
Introduction The partnership formed by SNH, Sustrans and Scottish Canals to deliver the NWCN project has facilitated a collaborative approach to national monitoring. This report presents the outcomes of the first stage of this monitoring, providing a baseline understanding of usage (and the associated benefits) of the NWCN in 2016. This includes evidence on the number of trips made on the network, the characteristics of network users, users’ perceptions of the network (as well as those of the general public) and evidence on the benefits of the NWCN to local businesses. This evidence base provides a greater understanding of how the NWCN contributes to a number of Scottish Government outcomes, particularly:
We live longer, healthier lives; We live in well-designed, sustainable places; We value and enjoy our built and natural environment and protect and enhance it for future generations; We reduce the local and global environmental impact of our consumption and production.
It is hoped that the findings presented here will help inform discussions on the on-going development of the NWCN and provide a useful benchmark for the comparison to any data gathered through future monitoring planned for 2019/2020. Methodology The evidence presented in this report was collected using both general and site-specific data collection methods. This included 17 route user surveys on 16 NWCN routes, generating 1,315 responses across all sites. Each route user survey was accompanied
1 The National Walking and Cycling Network is a network of long-distance walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland that can be used for local trips or to travel further afield. The network is composed of Scotland’s Great Trails, Scottish Canal towpaths and the National Cycle Network.
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by a manual count. Automatic cycle and pedestrian counter data from any known location on or within 15m of the NWCN was also drawn on to provide additional usage data. A nationwide public survey gathered 595 responses, collecting demographic, outdoor recreation and physical activity profile information. A business survey received 44 responses from businesses local to the NWCN, providing information on revenue, footfall and type of employment supported.
Using this data, a number of analytical approaches were applied to produce an estimate of the annual number of trips being made on the network and the economic impact of leisure walking and cycling on the NWCN.
Headline findings The NWCN in Scotland seeks three key outcomes:
Outcome 1: Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland An estimated 8,764,020 trips occurred on the network2 in 2016. This includes 8,491,835 walking3 and 272,185 cyclist trips.
An estimated 7,569,716 walking and cycling trips (86% of all walking and cycling trips) were taken for recreational purposes. This includes 7,387,897 walking trips (87% of all walking trips) and 181,819 cycling trips (67% of all cyclist trips).
An estimated 1,194,304 trips were purposeful trips, i.e. trips taken for a purpose other than leisure or exercise, for example, to travel to work, for shopping or to visit friends. This includes 1,103,938 walking trips (13% of all walking trips) and 90,366 cyclist trips (33% of all cyclist trips).
Evidence from all 17 route user surveys conducted on the network in 2016 provides a range of information on walking and cycling use of the NWCN. The following results show percentages derived from respondents to the route user surveys.
o Just under half of all route users surveyed were walking (46%) with a further third (32%) cycling. The remainder were running/jogging, dog walking, wheelchair users and horse-riding4. o Over half of those surveyed (52%) stated that the existence of the NWCN route allowed them to make their journey actively rather than by a motorised vehicle. o 84% of all respondents were using the NWCN for recreational purposes, with a further 16% using the route for a particular purpose (including commuting, shopping, and personal business amongst others). o The majority of all users started their journey from home (79%), with the remainder doing so from a holiday base (21%). o Nearly two-thirds of all route users surveyed were male (60%) with just over one third being female (40%), meaning the ratio of males to females on the network is approximately 2:1.
2 Please see Figure 2 for a map and list of all routes used to define the extent of the NWCN across which usage estimates were based. 3 Includes dog walkers. 4 Please note that the modal split of route user survey respondents should not be considered the modal split of all network use; instead, the modal split from user surveys should be understood to also reflect the location of the interview and overall willingness of different user types to stop for surveying.
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o The majority of route users were aged 45 or above (63%), with only 16% aged between 16 and 34. o Over half of all route users surveyed were in full-time employment (53%). The next highest employment category was retired, at 27%.
Responses to the public survey show that, after prompting, 90% of respondents claimed to be aware of the existence of a network of walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland. The primary reasons that individuals use these routes are for leisure-based walking and cycling (34%), for health/exercise (15%), to enjoy the scenery (15%) and to relax and unwind (13%).
Outcome 2: Strengthen local economies An estimated 7,569,716 recreational walking and cycling trips occurred on the NWCN in 2016. The estimated economic impact of these trips is £84,934,795 of expenditure in the local economy. The recreational spend per trip is estimated at £11.35 and £5.96 for walkers and cyclists respectively.
Feedback received through the business survey demonstrates that businesses located on or near the NWCN viewed the development of the network positively. The following results show percentages derived from those businesses who responded to the survey:
o 52% of business respondents expect the NWCN will lead to increased customers/footfall, 27% anticipate an extended operating season and 12% expect business growth as a result. o 74% of all businesses surveyed report using local walking and cycling paths and routes as part of their business promotion activities online (on their own website or others and on social media), through word of mouth or via leaflets. o 34% of all businesses surveyed estimated that at least half of their customer base are users of local walking and cycling routes. o Some businesses also report already seeing benefits from the NWCN. Amongst those that did, increased leisure walkers (74%) and leisure cyclists (51%), increased customer numbers (63%) and increased revenue (46%) all featured highly.
Outcome 3: Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices Evidence from the respondents to the route user surveys conducted at 17 sites on the network shows that just over half of all route users (53%) achieve the recommended 30 minutes of physical activity on five or more days per week5. 78% of all users stated that the NWCN helped them to increase their physical activity (either by a small or large amount), with 41% of all route users saying this was by a large amount.
Results from the 595 respondents to the public survey provide further strong evidence of the physical activity benefits of the network, with 58% of respondents achieving 30 minutes of exercise on 5 or more days per week, and over a quarter (27%) of all respondents saying they would not have been able to achieve their physical activity levels without access to their local walking and cycling paths and routes.
5 NHS guidelines recommend at least 150 minutes of moderate aerobic activity such as cycling or fast walking every week. http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/fitness/Pages/physical-activity-guidelines-for-adults.aspx
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Headline figures:
Table 1 The total number of walking and cycling trips made on the NWCN in 2016
Trips on NWCN in Walking (including Cycling Total 20166 dog walking) All 8,491,835 272,185 8,764,020
Recreational only 7,387,897 181,819 7,569,716
Purposeful only 1,103,938 90,366 1,194,304
Table 2 The total spend from all recreational cycling and walking trips made on the NWCN in 2016
Recreational spend on Walking (including Cycling Total NWCN in 2016 dog walking) All £83,850,468 £1,084,327 £84,934,795
6 Please note that these estimates of the total number of walking and cycling trips on the network have been drawn from a selection of automatic counter sites on the NWCN. The proportion of cycling trips in this estimate may be lower than is observed at any one site on the network, due to limitations associated with the availability and quality of counter data across the NWCN. This has resulted in a high proportion of the network being associated with a count site where high pedestrian usage is observed compared to cyclist usage. We are considering how to improve the coverage of the data underlying our network usage estimate to improve robustness for future estimations. Please see Appendix 7.1 for a full description of the methodology used to derive this estimate.
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1 Introduction
Plans for a strategic network of long-distance paths and routes across Scotland are included in the Scottish Government’s third National Planning Framework (NPF3), its long-term vision for development and investment in Scotland over the next twenty to thirty years.7
Implementation of the NWCN will be led by Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) in partnership with Sustrans and Scottish Canals.
The NWCN will build on the existing network of walking and cycling routes in Scotland by closing key gaps, upgrading connecting routes, encouraging the multi-use of paths and improving links with public transport. The Scottish Government’s vision is that this network of long distance paths and trails will support recreation, tourism and active travel by:
Connecting, and facilitating seamless passage through Scotland’s seven cities; Linking key natural and cultural heritage visitor destinations and public transport hubs; Providing recreation and active travel opportunities for people of all ages and abilities; Appealing to Scottish residents and visitors from the UK and beyond; Providing comparable quality and facilities to our neighbours in Northern Europe.
1.1 Purpose of the report The partnership formed by SNH, Sustrans and Scottish Canals to deliver the NWCN project has facilitated a collaborative approach to national monitoring. This report presents the outcomes of the first stage of this monitoring, providing a baseline understanding of usage (and the associated benefits) of the NWCN in 2016. The findings presented in this report will help inform discussions on the on-going development of the NWCN and provide a useful benchmark for the comparison of any data gathered through future monitoring. A repeat monitoring exercise is planned for 2019/2020, when the project will again be evaluated against its outcomes, including a comparison to the results outlined in this baseline report. The follow-up on the baseline report and results presented here will provide a means of evidencing change.
The purpose of the monitoring exercise is to provide a baseline against which to evidence progress of the NWCN development against three broad outcomes:
1. Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland;
2. Strengthen local economies;
3. Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices.
7 Scottish Government, 2017. Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Built-Environment/planning/National-Planning- Framework (Accessed on 14 June 2017)
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More specifically, this monitoring project has the following nine objectives:
1. To provide a baseline estimate in 2016 of usage of the NWCN in terms of the annual number of trips being made on the network
2. To provide on-going monitoring of trip numbers as additional kilometres of route are upgraded or added to the network over the next five years and beyond8
3. To collect data on the types of trips being made on the NWCN (i.e. for active travel, recreation, tourism, local visits and longer visits utilising the network’s connectivity)
4. To estimate the proportion of trips that represent new as opposed to displaced activity on the network8
5. To collect data on the characteristics of NWCN users (including demographic, physical activity and outdoor recreation profiles as well as self-reported health)
6. To provide feedback on user experiences of the NWCN
7. To measure the perceived impact of trips on the NWCN on users’ health and well-being
8. To estimate the contribution of NWCN trips to the attainment of Scottish Government physical activity targets
9. To assess the economic impact of the NWCN, with specific focus on expenditure incurred through trips made by network users
1.2 Report structure
This report begins by describing the methodology used by Sustrans Research and Monitoring Unit (RMU) to monitor the progress of the project against each of the three broader outcomes, including a description of the analytical tools that were used. Each outcome is then addressed in turn, presenting all of the relevant evidence gathered from the variety of monitoring tools used. The report then concludes with a summary of the evidence for 2016 under each of the three outcomes.
8 These outcomes cannot be reported on in this baseline report, but will instead be addressed in the next iteration of monitoring in 2019/2020.
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2 Methodology
For a full and detailed description of the methodology, analytical approaches, and their associated limitations and challenges please see Appendix 7.1. Recommendations for future monitoring are also included here.
To develop a baseline against which to evidence progress of the NWCN development against its three broad outcomes, a combination of site specific and general (online) data collection tools were used.
2.1 Site specific data collection Route user surveys and manual counts Sustrans’ Route User Intercept Surveys (RUIS), and concurrent manual counts of route users, were delivered at 17 strategic locations on 16 long-distance routes that are part of the NWCN in Scotland. A total of 1,315 respondents were interviewed across all 17 sites. Route User Intercept Surveys are designed to intercept users on their trips and collect information about their journey purpose, travel behaviour, physical activity and perceptions of safety.
All surveys and counts were conducted over a 4 day period in September or October 2016. For reporting purposes, results from the user surveys have been aggregated and presented as one. Annual usage estimates for individual sites were calculated from the manual counts and used in the estimation of usage on the entire NWCN.
Please note that, unless specified, all user survey responses reported reflect those collected from all route users (this includes walkers, cyclists, runners/joggers, dog walkers, wheelchair users, roller skaters and horse riders). Where questions have been directed to walkers or cyclists only, the responses reported reflect walkers (including dog walkers) and cyclists only (i.e. runners/joggers, wheelchair users, etc. are not reflected).
Automatic cycle and pedestrian counters Automatic counters recording continuous flows of cyclists and pedestrians have also been drawn on to estimate usage across the entire NWCN. All counters located on or within 15m of selected routes were drawn on, where sufficient data was available.
2.2 General (online) data collection NWCN public survey An online NWCN public survey was used to collect data from the Scottish public, including users and beneficiaries of the network as well as individuals who may not be using the network. The survey collected information on the characteristics of users of the NWCN, their physical activity levels and their awareness, levels of use and opinions of the network.
A total of 595 responses were received between 1 February and 31 March 2017. Given the relatively small sample size, the fact that the survey was promoted by organisations involved in promoting walking and cycling and that respondents were self-selecting, the results of the public survey should not be considered representative of the general public
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in Scotland. Nonetheless, such results can still begin to yield interesting insights into the public’s attitudes towards the network.
NWCN business survey An online survey was also sent out to businesses located on the NWCN. This survey sought to collect views or perceptions of how the development of LDRs, as part of the NWCN, has affected retail vitality, business income and employment.
There were 44 responses received between 1 February and 31 March 2017. Much like the public survey, results should not be considered representative of all businesses located on or close to the NWCN, but instead represent the opinions of the variety of businesses who chose to participate. The survey provides some valuable insights on the impact of the NWCN development on local businesses.
2.3 Analytical approaches
Following the data collection described above, a number of analytical approaches were used to develop the evidence against the three broader outcomes of the project.
This included the use of automatic counter and manual count data to develop annual usage estimates of walkers and cyclists at monitored locations on the network, and the subsequent calculation of a single estimate for the number of trips made on the NWCN in 2016. Following this, Sustrans’ Recreation Expenditure Model (REM) was used to estimate the total associated spend from the estimated levels of recreational walking and cycling taking place on the network.
A full description of the analytical approaches and their associated limitations and challenges is presented in the Appendix 7.1.
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3 Outcome 1 - Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland
Vision: The network will span the length and breadth of the country, providing opportunities for residents and visitors from the UK and beyond to journey between all our major cities, to visit our national parks and reserves, to experience our most iconic landscapes and to explore our diverse and spectacular coastlines and islands.
The evidence relevant to this outcome comprises information on awareness and usage of the National Walking and Cycling Network (NWCN), including data on purposeful trips made on the network (those not made solely for leisure or exercise purposes), use by tourism visitors and under-represented groups.
The following section reports relevant evidence from the route user and general public surveys. This is expected to provide a baseline against which evidence from future monitoring can be compared to establish the impact of the on-going development of the network.
The following indicators have been used to guide the data collection and presentation of results:
Increased walking and cycling usage of the NWCN; Increased walking and cycling usage of the NWCN among under-represented groups; Increased purposeful walking and cycling trips on the NWCN; Increased tourism visitor usage of the NWCN; Feedback from NWCN users that expresses positive sentiments.
Evidence is presented against each of the above metrics in turn.
3.1 Increased walking and cycling usage of the NWCN Network annual usage estimate For a full description of the methodology used to estimate the total number of walking and cycling trips on the NWCN in 2016, please see Appendix 7.1. For the purposes of this exercise, the NWCN has been defined to include all of Scotland’s Great Trails, the Forth and Clyde and Union canal towpaths, NCN76 and the Caledonia Way (NCN78)9. For a full map overview of all the routes used in this exercise, please see Figure 2.
Based on this analysis, the network usage estimate for the NWCN in 2016 is 8,764,020 trips. This includes 8,491,835 pedestrian trips and 272,185 cyclist trips. Walking and cycling trips are therefore estimated to account for 97% and 3% of all trips made on the network respectively. As this estimate is not based on the entirety of the NWCN it could be considered to be a conservative estimate of usage on the network as a whole. This
9 The National Walking and Cycling Network (NWCN) or network includes all of Scotland’s Great Trails, the National Cycle Network, Scottish canal towpaths and any linking routes. This reduced definition of the NWCN to estimate network usage has been on the basis of available spatial data.
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analysis will be repeated in 2019/2020 to help understand whether usage of the network has increased as a result of its development over this period.
Usage characteristics of the NWCN The route user surveys collected information on a number of characteristics of the visitors that were surveyed, including the activity respondents were undertaking on the route. Chart 1 shows nearly half the users were walking on the route (46%), with just under one-third cycling (32%). In addition to these users, just under one fifth were recorded dog walking (17%) and 4% running or jogging.
Please note that the modal split previously reported in the network usage estimate (97% walkers and 3% cyclists) should be considered as representative of network usage. The modal split reported from the user surveys will reflect to some extent the interview locations and the willingness of route users to take part in the survey.
Chart 1 Activity undertaken on the network (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315)
17% Walking
5% Cycling 46%
Running/Jogging
32% Dog walking
When users were asked if any other mode of transport was used as part of their journey (see Chart 2), most respondents reported they were only cycling or walking (69%), with only 25% travelling in a car/van in addition to cycling or walking on the network. This shows that the majority of trips on the NWCN are associated entirely with use of an active mode alone.
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Chart 2 Did you or will you use any other mode of transport for part of this journey today? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,289)
25% Car/van Train Bus 3% 3% Jogging 0% 69% None, just the bike or walking
As well as evidence that the NWCN provides a means for users to make trips using active modes, there is evidence that these trips are also replacing car travel. As shown in Chart 3, one-third of respondents indicated that they could have used a car for the trip they were making on the NWCN but chose not to (33%). Nearly half of all walkers and cyclists who were not using a car suggested that recreation was the main purpose of their trip and that car travel was not a substitute mode for this purpose (48%). One fifth indicated that the car was not an available option for their trip (19%).
Chart 3 If you have not used a car, could you have used a car for this trip instead of cycling/walking? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 954) 60%
50% 48%
40% 33% 30%
19% 20%
10%
0% Yes, could have used a car but No, car was not an available No, recreation is the main chose not to option purpose of this trip
The results in Chart 4 provide some insight into the motivations of users who opt to use an active travel mode on the NWCN (for a purposeful trip) rather than using a car on the road network for the same journey. The 33% of respondents who indicated they had
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chosen to walk or cycle rather than using a car for their trip (displayed in Chart 3) were asked what factors had influenced this decision.
Nearly two-thirds of users (63%) stated they were walking and cycling instead of using a car due to the associated health benefits. Additionally, 11% of respondents cited the costs of fuel and/or running a car and 9% cited environmental concerns as reasons to travel actively on the network.
Chart 4 If you selected ‘could have used a car but chose not to’, which of the following factors influenced your decision? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 312) 70% 63% 60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 11% 9% 11% 10% 5%
0% Someone else was Health benefits Environmental Cost of fuel and or Other using the car concerns running a car
As many as 40% of respondents would not have needed to make their journey had they been unable to access the network (see Chart 5 below). This observation is likely related to the fact that many of the trips that users were making on the network were recreational in nature, as evidenced by Table 1.
Chart 5 If you had been unable to access this route would you still have needed to make this journey to your given destination/wanted to make a journey for this particular purpose? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315) 70%
60% 58%
50% 40% 40%
30%
20%
10% 2% 0% Yes No Don't Know
Evidence was collected on the frequency with which respondents used the network (as shown in Chart 6). When asked how frequently they made the journey being undertaken
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on the day of the survey, half of all respondents indicated that they made the same journey on the network at least once a week (50%), including 36% who made the journey several times a week. Only 7% of respondents were making the journey for the first time.
Chart 6 How often do you make this journey? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 563)
Other 21%
First time 7%
Less frequently 8%
Monthly 11%
Fortnightly 4%
Weekly 11%
2-5 times a week 24%
Daily 14%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Use and perceptions of the NCWN from the public survey Evidence was also gathered from members of the general public via the public survey on their use and perceptions of the NCWN. A review of these results provides information on wider awareness and usage of the network, in addition to the results from the route user surveys related to individuals who were surveyed while using the network.
Results from Chart 7 show that awareness of walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland among this more general audience is high, with 90% of all survey respondents stating, after prompting, that they were aware of the existence such a network.
Chart 7 Are you aware that there is a network of walking and cycling paths and routes like this in Scotland? (%) (Public survey, N = 594)
90% 100% Yes No Not sure Total
4%5%
Chart 8 shows that among the routes selected for intensive monitoring as part of this project, the Forth and Clyde Canal (14%), the John Muir Way (11%), the Caledonian Canal (11%) and the Union Canal (10%) have seen the highest levels of usage by respondents to the public survey.
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Chart 8 The following long-distance walking and cycling paths and routes are part of the National Walking and Cycling Network, Have you ever used any of these paths and routes for local trips or to travel further afield? (%) (Public survey, N = 595)
I have not used any of these routes 3%
I am not familiar with any of these routes 1%
Union Canal 10%
Pilgrim's Way 1%
Mull of Galloway Trail 1%
Moray Coastal Path 5%
John Muir Way 11%
Great Trossachs Path 5%
Great Glen Way 9%
Forth Route 3%
Forth and Clyde Canal 14%
Deeside Way 4%
Cowal Way 3%
Clyde Walkway 9%
Cateran Trail 3%
Caledonian Canal 11%
Borders Abbeys Way 3%
Arran Coastal Way 4%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
When asked about other routes they had used, in addition to those displayed in Chart 8, respondents to the public survey were most likely to name the West Highland Way, Speyside Way and Fife Coastal Path. In total, 25 other named routes were listed by respondents. Respondents also reported using the National Cycle Network (NCN) and other local routes/paths that were not named by them.
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Table 3 Are there any other walking and cycling paths or routes in Scotland that you have used? (Count)10 (Public survey)
Route Frequency Route Frequency West Highland Way 115 Ayrshire Coastal Path 7 Speyside Way 59 Water of Leith 7 Fife Coastal Path 31 Kelvin Walkway 6 NCN (various) 29 Loch Leven 6 Dava Way 23 Badenoch Way 5 Rob Roy Way 20 East Highland Way 4 Various 'local' routes/paths 20 Crinan Canal 4 Southern Upland Way 18 Monkland Canal 3 Three Lochs Way 10 Annandale Way 3 River Ayr Way 12 Affric Kintail Way 3 Formartine & Buchan Way 10 Glen Ogle to Balquhiddar 3 Comrie to St Fillans 10 Lairig Ghru 2 St Cuthbert's Way 7 Cape Wrath Trail 3 Kintyre Way 8 Don't know the name of route 8
The results in Chart 9 show that the majority of respondents to the public survey used a walking and cycling path or route at least once a week (61%), including 42% who used a walking and/or cycling path or route several times a week. 38% of respondents state that they used a walking or cycling path at least once or twice a month, indicating a high frequency of use among respondents to the public survey.
Chart 9 In general, how many times per month do you use a walking and cycling path or route? (%) (Public survey, N = 588) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
More than once a day 5%
Everyday 10%
2 - 3 times per week 27%
Once a week 19%
Once or twice a month 21%
Less than once a month 16%
I do not use walking and cycling paths or routes 2%
The results in Chart 10 show responses to questions about how frequently respondents visit the outdoors. 87% of respondents to the public survey indicated that they visit the outdoors for leisure and recreation at least once a week, significantly higher than the national average of 49%11. This may be a reflection of the survey methodology used and the promotion of the survey by organisations involved in promoting walking and cycling.
10 Respondents could select/enter multiple routes so the number of route citations may exceed the number of survey respondents overall. 11 http://www.gov.scot/About/Performance/scotPerforms/indicator/outdoors
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Chart 10 In general, how many times per month do you visit the outdoors for leisure and recreation? (Public survey, N = 594) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
More than once a day 6%
Everyday 24%
2 - 3 times per week 38%
Once a week 19%
Once or twice a month 10%
Less than once a month 2%
I do not visit the outdoors for leisure and 1% recreation
According to the responses in Chart 11, there is little seasonal variation in usage of the network over the year.
Chart 11 In which months of the year do you use walking and cycling paths and routes for leisure and recreation? (Please tick all that apply) (Public survey, N = 578)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
January 77%
February 80%
March 87%
April 94%
May 96%
June 97%
July 97%
August 97%
September 97%
October 91%
November 79%
December 77%
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When asked how they travel to the walking and cycling paths that they use, the results in Chart 12 show that over half of all respondents to the public survey (54%) only use active travel (i.e. walking or cycling) as part of these journeys. The next highest response category is car/van at 38%, which may be a reflection of the more rural nature of some walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland and the differential distances that the Scottish public live from the network.
Chart 12 How do you generally travel to the walking and cycling paths and routes that you use? (Public survey, N = 587)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Walk 22%
Cycle 32%
Car / van 38%
Public bus 2%
Train / tram 2%
Motorcycle 0%
Horseback 1%
Other 3%
3.2 Increased walking and cycling usage on the NWCN among under-represented groups
Demographics of NWCN users This section presents results that provide an understanding of the types of people using the NWCN, with a view to understanding which population groups are over or under- represented. The route user survey data is compared to demographic data received from the public survey and to data for outdoor visitors in general from the 2013/14 Scotland’s People and Nature Survey (SPANS). Such comparisons help provide an understanding of how those surveyed through our user surveys and public surveys compare to the demographics of outdoor visitors to Scotland more generally. A full breakdown of all demographic information related to public survey respondents is provided in Appendix 7.3.
In terms of gender, the majority (60.5 %) of respondents interviewed on the NWCN through the user surveys were male. More than a third (39.5%) of respondents were female (see Chart 13). For the public survey, the male-female split is closer, at 52% and 47% respectively and similar to SPANS data for all outdoor visitors in Scotland (49% male and 51% female). This might suggest an overrepresentation of male users of the NWCN in both the user survey and public survey samples.
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Chart 13 Gender of respondents (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315) (Public survey, N = 587) (SPANS, N = 7,029)
100% 90% 80% 40% 47% 51% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 61% 52% 49% 20% 10% 0% RUIS Public Survey SPANS
Male Female Prefer not to say
The route user survey data on the age of respondents in Chart 14 shows that the majority (63%) of network users were aged 45 and above. This age split is similar in the public survey, with 61% of respondents falling into this age category. A comparison with 2013/14 SPANS data for all outdoor visitors in Scotland suggests that older people are over-represented in both the user and public survey samples compared to the general public.
The 2013/14 SPANS data shows that just under half of all outdoor visitors in Scotland are aged 45 and above (49%). Only 16% and 14% of respondents to the user and public surveys respectively were aged 34 and under, compared to 33% of all outdoor visitors being in this age group, according to the 2013/14 SPANS survey. Scotland has a population of approximately 5.3 million12, with 29% aged under 24 and 16% aged 65 or above. This suggests that young users of the network may be underrepresented in our user and public survey sample sizes compared to the population of Scotland as a whole.
Chart 14 Age of respondents (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315) (Public survey, N = 593) (SPANS, N = 7,029) 100% 90% 19% 15% 15% 80% 15% 70% 22% 23% 60% 19%
50% 23% 23% 40% 19% 30% 20% 23% 18% 20%
10% 12% 11% 15% 0% 4% 3% RUIS Public Survey SPANS
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
12 Scottish Government, 2017. Available at: http://www.scotland.org/about-scotland/facts-about-scotland/population-of- scotland (Accessed 14 June 2017)
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In terms of the employment status of route user survey respondents (see Chart 15), more than half (53%) were in full-time employment, with a further 27% retired (perhaps reflecting the high proportion of respondents in the older age groups). This compares to a slightly smaller 45% of all outdoor visitors in Scotland (as recorded by SPANS in 2013/14) who are employed full-time.
Chart 15 Employment status of respondents (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,300)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Employed full time (30+hours) 53%
Employed part time 11%
Looking after home/family 3%
Unemployed/sick leave 2%
Retired 27%
Studying 3%
Voluntary worker 0%
Other 0%
As shown in Table 4, 96.7% of all respondents to the route user surveys were white, with the remaining 3.3% belonging to other ethnic groups. This does not differ greatly from the ethnicity of respondents to the public survey, where 95% of all respondents were white (see Chart 44 in Appendix 7.3. for display of these results). 2013/14 SPANS data also show a similar profile, with 98% of all outdoor visitors white and a further 3% members of the BME population.
Table 4 Ethnicity (Route user surveys, N = 1,314)
Ethnicity % White 96.7 Mixed 0.7 Indian 0.2 Pakistani 0.0 Bangladeshi 0.0 Other Asian 0.1 Caribbean 0.0 African 0.3 Other Black 0.0 Chinese 0.2 Other ethnic origin 0.5 Prefer not to say 1.4
Chart 16 below shows the proportion of route user survey respondents who have their day to day activity limited because of a health problem or disability which has lasted, or is expected to last, at least 12 months. Here it is clear that the NWCN is being used by a very small proportion of people with a disability or health problem – just 2% indicated that their activities are limited a lot, and 6% a little. A further 1% preferred not to say.
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Chart 16 Are your day-to-day activities limited because of a health problem or disability which has lasted, or is expected to last at least 12 months (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315)
100% 91% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 6% 2% 1% 0% Yes, limited a lot Yes, limited a little No Prefer not to say
The results in Chart 17 show that the majority of cyclists using the NWCN are experienced: 65% of cyclists surveyed classified themselves as experienced, regular cyclists, with a further 19% classifying themselves as experienced, occasional cyclists. A minority of all cyclists interviewed on the network described themselves as occasional cyclists (7%) or reported they were starting to cycle again (6%). Only 2% of cyclists interviewed were new to cycling.
Chart 17 What sort of cyclist would you say you were? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 425) 70% 65%
60%
50%
40%
30% 19% 20%
10% 6% 7% 2% 0% New to cycling Starting to cycle Occasional cyclist Experienced, Experienced, again occasional cyclist regular cyclist
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Perceptions of and barriers to using the NWCN among the public To understand more about what may be driving some of the representativeness gaps (i.e. in terms of age, gender, ethnicity and cyclist experience) in usage on the NWCN, we can look to the public survey and the responses to questions on suggested improvements to and perceived barriers to using the network.
The results in Chart 18 provide an understanding of respondent perceptions of the quality of walking and cycling paths and routes they have used, including elements related to the perception of risk and safety. A comparison of responses to this question in the baseline survey and in any repeat iteration of the survey can provide evidence on whether users’ perceptions of safety have changed with the on-going development of the NWCN.
Among respondents to the public survey, there is a very positive perception of the walking and cycling routes they’ve used in terms of scenery and landscapes, with 42% of respondents rating this as an ‘Excellent’ feature. In terms of safety, 13% of all respondents rank this as ‘Excellent’ on the same routes, with a further 32% rating this as ‘Very good’. This indicates that safety concerns may not be a particular barrier to using the NWCN among the general public.
The two route features that scored lowest among respondents were quality of the path and quality of signposting. Based on their experience, 23% of respondents scored path quality as either ‘Poor’ or ‘Fair’, as did 21% of respondents towards the quality of signposting. Access to amenities en route also emerges as an area where user perceptions could be improved, with only 4% of respondents to the public survey ranking this as ‘Excellent’ and 39% as ‘Fair’ or ‘Poor’.
Chart 18 – Thinking about the walking and cycling paths and routes you have used, how would you rate the following? (Public survey, N = 577)
Access to amenities en route (e.g. shops, 4% 22% 35% 30% 9% cafes, pubs, etc)
3% Scenery and landscapes on the route 42% 39% 16% 1%
Ease of access 14% 37% 36% 11% 2%
Safety of route 13% 32% 37% 14% 4%
Quality of the path 10% 28% 39% 18% 5%
Quality of signposting 9% 34% 36% 16% 5%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%
Excellent Very good Good Fair Poor
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When asked what could be done to improve the walking and cycling paths and routes which respondents to the public survey used, maintenance was mentioned most frequently, cited by over a quarter of respondents (27%). The next most frequently cited areas for improvement were signage (16%), access (11%) and information (11%).
For a full description of how each of the themes displayed in Chart 19 have been created, please see Table 12 in Appendix 7.5.
Chart 19 In your view, what could be done to improve the walking and cycling paths and routes that you have used? (Public survey, N = 385) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Maintenance 27% Signage 16% Information 11% Issues with other users 8% Access 12% More routes 8% More facilities 5% Variation in quality 1% Segregation (for safety) 5% Wellbeing 0% Less promotion/development 1% Protect natural environment 1% Appreciation of limitations 1% Positive about (some) existing routes 1%
A selection of the open-text responses to the question on improvements to the network (to accompany Chart 19) are provided below.
Many routes, particularly cycle routes, are routed away from amenities. I recognise that this is because such routes are quieter but a key part of encouraging people and also making our roads and streets places of quality, is to have more people walking and cycling there. Ease of access can also be a problem at times as measures are taken to restrict anti-social use at the expense of legitimate users. This is particularly true of people using non-standard cycles and other types of mobility aid to help them move around. Complete missing links, connect communities and with public transport, remove barriers for disabled cyclists, signage to help people get onto routes and access services. Better, more accessible mapping websites and downloadable routes and local service information. It takes a lot of research in an unfamiliar area, without local knowledge. Better leafleting and signposting for tourists. Emphasis on countryside code (particularly wild toileting). Better signage, better surfaces, more maintenance particularly after leaf fall. Some paths could be wider to allow both walkers and cyclist to use safely. Cyclists like to socialise by riding abreast - this requires space. Appreciate not all surfaces can be smooth tarmac - some sort of key for the grade of path is required. More lighting for evenings. If that's not possible, install more solar path edge lights. Clear overgrown, vegetation, remove litter, deal with dog fouling (including bags hung on trees). Clear signs & more amenities.
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When asked about barriers which might deter users from walking or cycling on the NWCN, the most frequently reported concern among respondents to the public survey was access (27%). Being able to access the routes by public transport or active travel was considered difficult by some, including those with children and disabilities. The perception that some routes are not fully ‘joined-up’ was also mentioned in connection with access. Lack of awareness of NWCN routes and concerns about safety were each mentioned as deterrents to use of the network by 19% of respondents.
Chart 20 If you don’t currently walk or cycle on the National Walking and Cycling Network, what would encourage you to make more use of the network in future? Are there any barriers in particular that are stopping you from doing so? (%) (Public survey, N = 83)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Access 27%
Awareness 19%
Maintenance 12%
Safety 19%
Other users 4%
Health & Wellbeing 4%
Need for more/local routes 10%
Personal choice 4%
A selection of the open text responses to the question displayed in Chart 20 are provided below.
The gaps in the NWCN are frustrating and need to be addressed. My husband uses a low hand cycle as he is paralysed. In areas of path where gates are fitted instead of cattle grids, he cannot access or enjoy the paths as he cannot reach or use the gates when alone. This is a barrier to independent cycling, he always needs someone with him to open gates. Getting to and from the paths safely - integration with public transport or local safe cycling routes etc. Cycle network is poorly connected and are far less direct than quiet alternatives. Too many safety concerns to note but there are good sections appearing in the area I am familiar with. Lack of awareness of most safety issues. Access to some cycle routes can be poor - you need to either walk your bike to get to some of them or cycle on the roads which is off-putting to a lot of people. I would use a route every day but have to travel 2 miles on busy roads to do so. A proper cycle lane or easier access to the route would be a huge benefit for a lot of people. I do ride, but the fact that you have barriers preventing disabled access causes me to ride much less than I otherwise would.
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3.3 Increased purposeful walking and cycling trips on the NWCN Purposeful trips on the NWCN To determine the levels of purposeful13 walking and cycling trips being made on the NWCN, all route user survey respondents were asked a series of questions about the purpose of their journeys. As shown in the chart below, 86% of all route users surveyed were on a recreational/touring trip, rather than making a trip for a particular purpose (e.g. commuting to work or education, shopping or visiting friends and relatives).
Chart 21 Are you on a recreational touring trip or are you travelling to a specific destination for a particular purpose (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1229)
14%
86%
Recreational/touring Particular purpose
In total, 7,569,716 walking and cycling trips were taken on the NWCN for recreational purposes in 2016. This includes 7,387,897 walking trips (87% of all walking trips) and 181,819 cycling trips (67% of all cycling trips). An estimated 1,194,304 purposeful trips were taken on the NWCN in 2016. This includes 1,103,938 purposeful walking trips (13% of all walking trips) and 90,366 purposeful cycling trips (33% of all cycling trips).
Those respondents travelling for a particular purpose were asked to describe this in more detail (Chart 22). More than half here indicated their journey to be for commuting purposes (54%), supporting the high frequency of use already seen on the NWCN. A further 15% of respondents were using the NWCN for shopping, 4% for personal business, 5% for education and 5% to visit friends and family.
13 Purposeful walking trips refer to any that are not made for the purpose of recreation. This includes commuting, in course of work, to and from education, shopping and to visit family and friends.
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Chart 22 What is the purpose of your current journey? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 226)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Commuting (getting to/from work) 54% Education 5% Escorting to school 1% Getting to/from holiday base 0% In course of work 2% Other 1% Other escort 2% Personal business 4% Shopping 15% Social/entertainment 8% Visiting friends or family 5%
3.4 Increased tourism visitor usage of the NWCN Tourism usage of the NWCN Evidence related to this metric comes from additional information asked of route user survey respondents who indicated they were on a recreational trip on the network. This provides an insight into the types of recreational trips that are being made on the network, including whether they are by local users or visitors from further afield.
Our analysis of the aggregated route user survey data finds that 86% of all route users are on a recreational or touring trip, an estimated total of 7,569,716 recreational trips per annum. Just over one-fifth of these recreational users were starting their journey from holiday accommodation (21%), and the remaining 79% from home (Chart 23), indicating that the majority of recreational users on the NWCN are in the local population.
In Scotland as a whole, there are 156,260,000 tourism trips per annum, of which 14,260,000 are overnight stays (i.e. day visits excluded)14. This tells us there is substantial potential for increased walking and cycling trips on the network related to Scottish tourism.
Chart 23 Did you start your trip today from home or holiday accommodation? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,048)
21% Home
Holiday base
79%
14 Visit Scotland, 2017. Scotland’s Tourism Performance Summary Report 2016. Available at: http://www.visitscotland.org/pdf/2016%20Stats%20Summary.pdf
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When asked about the type of recreational cycling/walking trip they were on (Chart 24), almost equal proportions said they were on a short, circular recreational trip (less than 3 hours) (38%) or a short, out and back recreational trip (less than 3 hours) (39%). A further 18% of respondents were on a day ride/walk of more than 3 hours in duration. Much smaller proportions described their trips as part of a cycling/walking holiday staying at multiple locations or at one location only (4% and 2% respectively). The information in Chart 24 tells us that the majority of recreational trips (77%) being made on the network are shorter in duration, lasting up to 3 hours.
Chart 24 How would you describe your cycle/walking trip today? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 977)
45% 39% 40% 38% 35% 30% 25% 20% 18% 15% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% Short, circular Short, out and Day ride/walk (a Part of a Part of a recreational trip back recreational trip of more than 3 cycle/walking cycle/walking (less than 3 hours trip (less than 3 hours duration holiday staying at holiday - staying at hours) one location multiple locations
Overall, it is clear that the NWCN is supporting active mode trips for recreational purposes by both home-based and holiday users. Results from the route user surveys show that most trips are shorter in nature (i.e. day trips of less than 3 hours) rather than the traditional multi-stop touring category of recreational travel.
3.5 Feedback from NWCN users that expresses positive sentiments
Perceptions of the NWCN among route users When asked about their motivations for using the NWCN (Chart 25), liking the surroundings on the route topped the list, with 95% of respondents in either strong agreement or agreement that this had influenced their use of the network, suggesting the NWCN has a high amenity value. The vast majority of respondents (95%) also cited the wish to get exercise. Around two thirds of respondents indicated that they used the route because it was the most convenient option (69%).
Other motivational factors cited by respondents include users having environmental concerns (58%), the fact that the route provides the best transport option (54%), and that users can save money by using the route (36%). With the surrounding environment and exercise topping the list, the role of the NWCN in encouraging both enjoyment and physical activity through recreational or leisure cycling and walking is affirmed.
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Chart 25 To what extent have the following factors influenced your decision to walk, cycle or use wheelchair today? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315)
I have environmental concerns 23% 35% 32% 8% 3%
To get exercise 63% 31% 4%1%0
I like the surroundings on this route 65% 29% 4%1% 0
I save money using this route 14% 22% 48% 14% 0
This is the most convenient route 30% 39% 25% 5% 0
It's the best transport option 24% 30% 41% 5% 0
I can go straight to my destination 26% 32% 38% 4% 0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree
Motivations for using the NWCN among the public The main reasons that respondents to the public survey cited for using walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland were for leisure (34% for both walking and cycling), followed by health/exercise (15%), enjoying the scenery (15%) and to relax and unwind (13%). These responses suggest that use of walking and cycling paths and routes provides a range of benefits to users in terms of relaxation, recreational pleasure and an opportunity for exercise.
Chart 26 What are the main reasons that you use walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland? (%) (Public survey, N = 592) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
I do not use walking and cycling routes 0% I'm not sure whether I use walking and cycling… 0% Horse-riding 1% Access to rowing/boating/paddling 1% Other 1% Walking (non-leisure) 3% Cycling (non-leisure) 6% Walking a dog 6% To socialise with others 7% To relax and unwind 13% To enjoy the scenery 15% Health / exercise 15% Cycling for leisure 16% Walking for leisure 18%
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Chart 27 on the next page provides further insights into the benefits people derive from use of the NWCN.
Among all respondents to the public survey, 94% report that their use of long-distance walking and cycling paths and routes has helped them to relax and unwind. This includes 60% claiming this be by a lot and 34% by a small amount. A further 92% and 91% of respondents also claimed the use of long-distance paths has helped them to increase their physical activity and spend more time outdoors respectively. Using long-distance paths has also helped 65% of respondents to increase their social activity.
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Chart 27 – Has your use of long distance walking and cycling paths and routes helped you to: (Public survey, N = 581)
6% % 34%
60% Relaxunwind and
35% % 43%
23% other people) other
Increase your Increase No
social activity (e.g. socialactivity spending time with spending Yes, by a small amount 8% Yes, by a lot % 37%
exercise) 55%
(e.g. walking, (e.g.
Increase your Increase
physical activity physical cycling, or other or cycling,
9% % 35%
outdoors 55% Spend more time more Spend
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
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4 Outcome 2 - Strengthen local economies
Vision: Walking and cycling tourism is a growing area of economic activity, with each longer distance route supporting a range of jobs and businesses both locally and nationally. Expanding and improving the national network throughout Scotland will attract new tourism businesses and provide economic benefit to more local communities.
The evidence relevant to this outcome includes feedback from local businesses operating on or near the NWCN about the impact of the network on their business activity, including on business revenue, customer base or business promotion. This section also includes calculations from Sustrans’ Recreational Expenditure Model (REM) on tourism-related economic contributions of usage of the network.
The following results provide both a baseline overview of the relationship between the NWCN and local businesses and an indication of some positive impacts of the network that are already being observed in the local economy.
The following indicators have been used to guide the data collection and presentation of results relevant to this outcome:
Positive feedback from local businesses on/near the NWCN; Reports of increased business revenue from local businesses on/near the NWCN; Evidence of tourism related contributions to the economy from usage of the NWCN.
Evidence is presented under each of the above metrics in turn.
4.1 Positive feedback from local businesses on/near the NWCN
Perceived benefits of the NWCN among the business community When asked how they expect the development of the NWCN will affect their business, the results in Chart 28 show that increased customers/footfall was mentioned by just over half of all respondents to this question (52%). The next highest impact expected was an extended season (including more people choosing to come at quieter times), mentioned by 27% of the respondents.
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Chart 28 – What are your expectations for how the further development of local walking and cycling paths and routes will affect your business?15 (Business survey, N = 33)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Business growth 12%
Increased customers/footfall 52%
Longer stays 3% Extended season (Including more people 27% choosing to come at quieter times) Increased revenue 9%
Broaden customer base 9%
Increased awareness of healthy lifestyles 6%
Increased demand for walking/ cycling facilities 9%
Increased active commuting 6%
Make no difference 12%
Other 15%
A selection of comments on the expected impact of the on-going development of the NWCN on business activity to accompany the results displayed in Chart 28 is provided below:
With the Borders Railway there is massive potential for day trippers coming down to walk and cycle in the area as well as short stay visitors. Strong Walking and Cycle Routes could encourage more people to come and enjoy our countryside and heritage. We are open all year however we are very quiet in the winter period – Tourist Attraction Yes, increased customer numbers resulting in increased revenue for ourselves and other local businesses – Tour Provider As the south side of Loch Ness becomes better known, year on year, we would expect to attract more visitors. We are open all year and have already seen an increase of people choosing to come at quieter times to enjoy the plethora of paths and wild life – Camping/Caravan Park This should give us a broader customer base with a slightly extended operating season - Hostel More people wanting to take up cycling so more bike sales and servicing - Retailer
Many of the business respondents report using local walking and cycling paths and routes in their business marketing activities, with 44% of businesses reporting they use this as part of promotion activities on their own or another website, as shown in Chart 29. There are also businesses reporting that they promote local walking and cycling paths in their guest information/welcome packs (9%), suggesting these routes play a role in attracting a customer base for these businesses.
15 Respondents answered this question using an open text box. The percentage values represent the number of responses that were coded as belonging to each theme, as a proportion of all businesses who gave a response to this question. For further details on how each of the above response themes were defined and the types of comments that fall into them, please see Table 11 in Appendix 7.5.
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Chart 29 – What role, if any, do local walking and cycling paths and routes currently have in your business marketing activities?16 (Business survey, N = 34)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Promoted on own website 44%
Promoted on other website 6%
Advertised/promoted via word of mouth 9%
Promoted in own leaflets 12%
Promoted via social media 3%
Promoted via guest information/welcome pack 9%
Promoted using other means 32%
Used to promote healthy lifestyle 3%
None 21%
A selection of comments on the role of local walking and cycling routes on business marketing to accompany the results in Chart 29 is provided below:
We market our B&B and the Callander area as a great base for a walking, cycling (and touring) holiday on our own website and also we are part of a small team who set up www.destinationcallander.co.uk to promote the Callander area as a fantastic tourist destination – Bed & Breafkast We belong to the Walkers and Cyclists VisitScotland Welcome schemes. We advertise walking and cycling opportunities on our website and provide information on routes for guests when they arrive. We belong to the CTC and advertise on WalkHighlands and the Great Glen Ways website - Hostel A great deal, we promote them all as part of our core business – Regional Park None specifically as we are a very specialised niche business and not connected to walking/cycling directly, though we are connected to Retail, Tourism and Education. We do deliberately promote the John Muir Way specifically, however as we have a direct business link, having designed the John Muir Way tartan - Retailer Feature in information on 'what to do nearby' - Hostel
16 Respondents answered this question using an open text box. The percentage values represent the number of responses that were coded as belonging to each theme, as a proportion of all businesses who gave a response to this question.
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4.2 Reports of increased business revenue from local businesses on/near the NWCN Revenue impact of the NWCN on local businesses The following section outlines the evidence collected through the business survey on the relationship between the NWCN and business activity that is likely to have an impact on revenue. This includes a review of the business customer base, their current revenue and the impacts of the network that business owners are currently experiencing.
The results on business revenue in Chart 30 show that a range of businesses (in terms of income) have responded to the survey. The highest revenue response category was of business income between £200,000 and £399,999, with 18% of respondents falling into this income category. As of March 2016, there were 348,045 Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Scotland, supporting an estimated 1.2 million jobs17. SMEs account for 99.3% of all private sector enterprises in Scotland18, suggesting that their high representation in the business survey is in line with the rest of the Scottish economy.
The majority of business respondents (89%) located on or near the NWCN were small businesses, with revenue of £200,000 per annum or lower. This suggests that any positive impact on business revenue or activity associated with the development of local walking and cycling routes is likely to be strongly valued by these business owners and would provide support to small business owners in the local economy.
Chart 30 – Could you please indicate which of the following best represents your business income for the financial year (April 2016 – March 2017)? (Business survey, N = 40)
£1,000,000+ 3% £400,000 - £749,999 8% £200,000 - £399,999 18% £100,000 - £149,999 8% £75,000 - £99,999 8% £50,000 - £74,999 15% £25,000 - £49,999 10% £10,000 - £24,999 15% £5,000 - £9,999 10% £0 - £4,999 8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
The impacts of the NWCN on business revenue19 can also be viewed through any changes to the business customer bases associated with the development of local long- distance walking and cycling paths and routes.
When businesses were asked about their customer base, 12% of businesses responded that 90% or more of their customer base are local walking and cycling route users. This
17 Scottish Government, 2017. Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Corporate/KeyFacts (Accessed 14 June 2017) 18 Same as footnote 12. 19 Revenue refers to the amount of money received by a business within a given time period. Any deduction of business costs from revenue would provide an indication of business income.
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suggests a strong link between business revenue and walking and cycling users of the NWCN for these businesses.
As shown in Chart 31, just over one third (34%) of all responses indicated that their customer base was made up of 50% or more individuals using local walking or cycling routes. This suggests that local businesses see a link between the existence of local walking and cycling paths and routes and their customer base.
Chart 31 – What percentage of your customers do you think are people using local walking and cycling paths and routes? Please round up to the nearest 10%. (Business survey, N = 41) 30% 24% 25% 20% 20% 17% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 5% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% <10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of customers as local walking and cycling route users
Businesses were also asked to indicate the ways in which their business had benefitted from the NWCN over the last few years (Chart 32). Amongst those businesses which responded to the question, 74% reported already seeing increased leisure walker (74%) and leisure cyclist (51%) customer numbers in recent years. This may be driving the high expectation for increased customer numbers reported in Chart 28.
In terms of how the network is having an impact on business revenue, Chart 32 also shows that 46% of businesses which responded to this question indicated they are already experiencing increased revenue. Furthermore, 23% stated they are benefitting from increased expenditure per customer linked to the NWCN.
Chart 32 –In which of the following ways would you say your business has benefitted from the National Walking and Cycling Network over the last few years? (Business survey, N = 35)
More people browsing/making enquiries 43%
Increased leisure walker customer 74% numbers
Increased revenue 46%
Increased spend per customer 23%
Increased leisure cyclist customer 51% numbers
Increased customer numbers 63%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
The above evidence supports the notion that there is a positive link between the network and the customer base and associated business revenue of local businesses.
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4.3 Evidence of tourism related contributions to the economy from usage of the NWCN
Economic benefits of leisure pedestrian and cyclist usage on the NWCN The Recreational Expenditure Model outputs show that an estimated £84,934,795 is generated by current leisure walking and cycling usage on the network. This includes £83,850,468 from leisure walkers and £1,084,327 from leisure cyclists using the network. This expenditure is across the accommodation, food and drink and retail sectors, including an estimated provision for expenditure on car costs, cycle cost and public transport. The recreational spend per trip is estimated at £11.35 and £5.96 for walkers and cyclists respectively.
It is estimated that 1,950 direct and indirect full time equivalent (FTE) jobs are supported through the local tourism industries linked to leisure cycling and walking. This includes 1,925 FTE jobs supported by leisure walking usage and 25 FTE jobs supported by the recreational spend of leisure cyclists.
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5 Outcome 3 - Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices
Vision: Easily accessible and well promoted to communities across Scotland, the network will be a key resource for supporting more physically active lifestyles that promote physical and mental health and well-being. It will form an important part of the green infrastructure of our towns and cities, integrated into local path networks, linking effectively to public transport hubs; and improving connectivity between places.
The evidence relevant to this outcome includes information from respondents to the public survey as well as respondents to the route user surveys on their physical activity, active travel and the health-related drivers to use the network.
The results provide an overview of the current physical activity profiles of users of the network and among the general public. Results that capture the health-related motivations among users and the public to walk or cycle on the network will also be described here. This provides an indication of the health benefits of the NWCN, linked to the physical activity it encourages.
To assess whether the network is supporting sustainable travel choices, evidence related to the reduction in perceived safety issues or safety risk among the general public will be examined.
The following indicators have been used to guide the data collection and presentation of results relevant to this outcome:
Reported increases in physical activity and attainment of recommended weekly physical activity levels; Reduction in perception of level of risk as a barrier to active travel; Reported increases in active travel (evidence of new and/or increased walking and cycling activity on the NWCN).
Evidence is presented under each of the above metrics in turn.
5.1 Reported increases in physical activity and attainment of recommended weekly physical activity levels
Physical activity on the NWCN When asked, more than half of all respondents to the route user surveys (52%) said that the route had allowed them to walk/cycle instead of using a car/van for their journey (see Chart 33).
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Chart 33 Has this route allowed you to walk/cycle instead of using a car/van for this journey? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,289)
Yes 41% No 59%
All respondents to the route user surveys were questioned about the extent to which using the NWCN route increased their levels of physical activity (Chart 34). Positively, as many as 41% of all respondents indicated that using the NWCN increased their level of physical activity by a large amount, and a further 37% said it increased their physical activity by a small amount. Overall, the NWCN has helped more than three quarters of all route users to increase their levels of exercise (78%).
Chart 34 Does using this route increase your level of physical activity? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315)
22% Yes, by a large amount
41%
Yes, by a small amount
37% No
Alongside strength exercises on two or more days a week, NHS guidelines for staying healthy20 recommend at least 150 minutes of moderate aerobic activity such as cycling or fast walking every week.
Amongst route user survey respondents, more than half (53%) were hitting the targets for moderate aerobic activity, achieving at least 30 minutes of exercise (enough to raise their breathing rate) on a minimum of 5 days in the past week. In fact, as many as one- third (33%) of all respondents were achieving 30 minutes or more exercise on all 7 days (Chart 35). In Scotland as a whole, there were 63% of adults (aged 16 and over) who met the current physical activity guidelines21. Route users therefore look less likely than average to be meeting the physical activity guidelines; however based on differences in methodologies and sampling approaches, it is not possible to conclude with confidence why this difference is observed.
20 http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/fitness/Pages/physical-activity-guidelines-for-adults.aspx 21 Scottish Government, 2017. Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/TrendPhysicalActivity (Accessed 14 June 2017)
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Chart 35 In the past week, on how many days have you completed 30 minutes or more physical activity that was enough to raise your breathing rate? (%) (Route user surveys, N= 1,315) 35% 33%
30%
25%
20%
15% 15% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 6% 6% 5%
0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Route user survey respondents were also asked to what extent they agreed that their decision to walk or cycle on their route was influenced by their desire to get exercise (Chart 36). Here, 63% were in strong agreement and a further 31% in agreement that exercise was a key factor in their use of the network. Across all other factors influencing active travel on the network, this was the second largest driver reported across all route user surveys, behind liking the surroundings on the route (Chart 24).
Chart 36 To what extent have the following factors influenced your decision to walk or cycle today? To get exercise (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315) 70% 63% 60%
50%
40% 31% 30%
20%
10% 4% 1% 0% 0% Strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree
As shown in Chart 37, route users were asked to rate their general health over the last four weeks. Nearly three-quarters of all respondents rated their health as either excellent or very good (74%), with a further 20% as good. Measured on a scale from ‘Very good’ to ‘Very Bad’, results from the 2015 Scottish Health Survey22 indicate similar results
22 The Scottish Health Survey, 2015. Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/09/2764/332548 (Accessed 26th June 2017)
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amongst the general Scottish population, with 74% of adults describing their health as either ‘Very good’ or ‘Good’.
Chart 37 Overall, how would you rate your general health over the last four weeks? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,315 45% 40% 40%
35% 33%
30%
25% 20% 20%
15%
10% 5% 5% 1% 0% 0% Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor Very poor
Physical activity on the NWCN among the general public In addition to evidence from the route user surveys, there is strong evidence from the public survey to suggest that the NWCN supports physical activity among the public in Scotland.
As shown in Chart 38, when respondents to the public survey were asked about their physical activity, over half indicated that they were meeting the recommended levels of physical activity per week (30 minutes on 5 days or more (58%). This is slightly lower than the percentage of adults meeting this requirement in the population as a whole, at 63%23. Again this difference may be attributable to the older age profile of public survey respondents compared to SPANS data for outdoor recreation users in Scotland (see Chart 14).
23 In 2015, 63% of adults aged 16 and over met the current physical activity guidelines. From the Scottish Government (2017) at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/TrendPhysicalActivity (Accessed 14 June 2017)
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Chart 38 – In the past week, on how many days have you done a minimum of 30 minutes physical activity? (Public survey, N = 591)
30% 28%
25%
20% 20%
14% 15% 13% 10% 10% 8% 8%
5%
0% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Respondents to the public survey were asked if the physical activity levels they reported were linked to the existence of local walking and cycling paths and routes. The results in Chart 39 show that over a quarter of respondents to the public survey attributed their physical activity to the existence of such routes (27%). This highlights the potential health benefits that are related to the provision of walking and cycling infrastructure in terms of the physical activity they support.
Chart 39 – If you had been unable to access your local walking and cycling paths and routes, would you still have been able to do this amount of physical activity? (Public survey, N = 594) 70%
58% 60%
50%
40%
30% 27%
20% 14%
10%
0% Yes No Not sure
Furthermore, when respondents to the public survey were asked why they use walking and cycling paths in Scotland, health and exercise emerged as a key factor for 15% of individuals. This result is displayed in Chart 4024 below.
24Chart 40 is a duplicate of Chart 25 which first appears on page 33.
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Chart 40 What are the main reasons that you use walking and cycling paths and routes in Scotland? (Public survey, N = 592)
Walking for leisure 18% Cycling for leisure 16% Health / exercise 15% To enjoy the scenery 15% To relax and unwind 13% To socialise with others 7% Walking a dog 6% Cycling (non-leisure) 6% Walking (non-leisure) 3% Other 1% Access to rowing/boating/paddling 1% Horse-riding 1% I'm not sure whether I use walking and cycling… 0% I do not use walking and cycling routes 0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
5.2 Reported increases in active travel (evidence of new and/or increased walking and cycling activity on the NWCN)
Route user surveys / automatic counter data and network usage estimate Using the methodology outlined in Appendix 7.1, a network usage estimate has been derived for the NWCN. This uses evidence from all of the route user surveys along with counter data that has been gathered as part of this project.
For the purposes of this exercise, the NWCN network has been defined to include all of Scotland’s Great Trails, the Forth and Clyde and Union canal towpaths, NCN76 and the Caledonia Way (NCN78). For a full list of all of the Scotland’s Great Trails included in this exercise, please see Figure 2.
Based on this analysis, the baseline network usage estimate for the NWCN in 2016 is 8,764,020 trips. This includes 8,491,835 pedestrian trips and 272,185 cycling trips.
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5.3 Reduction in perception of level of risk as a barrier to active travel
Perceptions of safety among users of the NWCN Safety concerns can be a barrier to using walking and cycling routes for some users. The evidence in Chart 41 shows that 86% of respondents to the route user surveys agree that they feel relaxed on the network. Also related to safety on the route, 78% of respondents agreed they could move freely on the route (i.e. unimpeded by barriers, etc.). However, lighting emerges as a potential concern among users, with only 19% of users stating that they feel the route they were using is well-lit and 35% of respondents neutral about lighting on the route. Interpretation of this result should be made carefully. Many rural and remote routes on the NWCN are not lit and many users may not expect these to be so. Further research into users’ expectations of the routes and their facilities should be considered for the next phase of research.
Chart 41 When thinking about safety, how strongly would you agree or disagree with the following? (%) (Route user surveys, N = 1,289)
I feel relaxed 36% 50% 10% 3%1%
I can move freely 30% 48% 14% 6% 2%
This route feels well lit 4% 15% 35% 17% 29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree
Perceptions of safety on the NWCN among the general public The results displayed in Chart 42 indicate how members of the general public perceive the safety risk on the network, and whether this may be a barrier to higher usage. When respondents to the public survey were asked about their perception of walking and cycling routes, the majority (83%) rated safety on the route as ‘Good’ or higher. There were 13% of respondents who classed route safety as ‘Excellent’ on the routes they have used.
The majority of respondents (87%) also rated ease of access to the routes (i.e. barrier- free) as ‘Good’ or higher, with 14% of respondents rating this as ‘Excellent’. This indicates that access is unlikely to be a significant barrier to the public using the network.
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Chart 42 – Thinking about the walking and cycling paths and routes you have used, how would you rate the following: (Public survey, N = 577)
9% 30% % 35%
etc) 22% shops,
Access to Access 4%
route (e.g. route
cafes, pubs,cafes, amenities en amenities 1% 3% % 16% 39%
42%
landscapes
on the routethe on Scenery and Scenery 2% 11% % 36% Poor
37% access Ease of Ease 14% Fair Good 4% 14% Very Good % 37% route 32% Excellent Safety of Safety 13%
5% 18% % 39%
28% the path the
Quality of Quality 10%
5% 16% % 36% 34%
Quality of Quality 9% signposting
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
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6 Conclusion This report presents evidence on the contribution of the National Walking and Cycling Network to the achievement of three outcomes. This evidence is drawn from a range of monitoring tools that have gathered data on usage, user characteristics and perceptions of routes on the network and feedback from local businesses on the economic benefits of the network.
The monitoring tools that have been used include route user surveys (including accompanying manual counts), automatic cycle and pedestrian counter data, an online public survey and an online business survey.
The following sections summarise the evidence presented under each of the three outcomes being monitored under this project, drawing from evidence across all of the monitoring tools used.
6.1 Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland Based on evidence from the route user surveys and public survey, it is clear that the NWCN in Scotland is supporting people to walk and cycle. The network usage estimate shows that 8,764,020 walking and cycling trips occurred on the network in 2016. Walking trips are estimated as accounting for 97% of all trips made on the NWCN in 2016 and cycling for 3%.
Of all route user survey respondents, nearly half were walking (46%) and 32% were cycling. Half of these trips are made on a regular weekly basis (50%), showing that the network is repeatedly and consistently used by certain individuals for their active travel trips. There is positive evidence that some of these active travel trips are replacing motorised travel, with one-third of all users saying they could have used a car for their journey but chose not to (33%).
There was a high level of awareness of the NWCN among respondents to the public survey, with the most used long-distance walking and cycling path and route reported to be the West Highland Way. Respondents to the public survey also reported frequent use of the network, with just under two-thirds (61%) reporting that they use walking and cycling paths and routes at least once a week. Respondents showed little variation in their usage of these routes across the year.
86% of all trips made on the NWCN are for recreational purposes. The remaining purposeful trips on the network are likely being made where the NWCN passes through urban conurbations and provides a means for individuals to walk or cycle to work, education, for business and/or shopping.
87% of all pedestrian trips and 67% of all cycling trips are estimated as being for recreation purposes. A total of 7,387,897 and 181,819 recreational walking and cycling trips respectively are estimated on the NWCN in 2016. A total of 1,103,938 purposeful walking trips and 90,366 purposeful cycling trips are estimated on the NWCN in 2016.
It is clear that the NWCN is supporting tourism usage, evidenced by the 21% of recreational walking and cycling trips that are being made on the network directly from a holiday base. Interestingly, the majority of all recreational trips being made on the network (by home or holiday-based users) are of a short nature (i.e. up to 3 hours or a
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daytrip) rather than trips which would be categorised as being part of a single or multi- day touring trip.
6.2 Strengthen local economies The businesses surveyed under this project have positive expectations for the impact of the NWCN development on their business activity, including increased customers/footfall (52%), an extended season (27%) and business growth (12%). The network also plays a role in local business promotion on websites (50%), via word of mouth (9%), on social media (3%) or in leaflets and information packs (21%). This suggests that these businesses see value in being located on or near the NWCN and view this as a fruitful business promotion tool. Most of the business survey respondents local to the NWCN were small-size, with a revenue of £200,000 per annum or lower (89%). Business respondents also reported seeing a clear link between leisure walkers and cyclists using the network and their customer base, with many reporting increases due to the presence of the NWCN. Based on the network usage estimate derived for the NWCN, Sustrans RMU’s Recreational Expenditure Model tools estimate that the contribution (in terms of tourism expenditure) of leisure walking on the NWCN in 2016 was £83,850,468. The estimated expenditure in the local economy by leisure cyclists was £1,084,327. The recreational spend per trip is estimated at £11.35 and £5.96 for walkers and cyclists respectively.
6.3 Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices There is evidence to suggest the NWCN delivers health benefits to users. Just under half of the route users surveyed reported that the network had helped them to increase their physical activity level by a large amount (41%), with more than half (53%) of all users achieving the recommended physical activity target of 30 minutes or more on 5 days of the week. Among respondents to the public survey, 40% achieved this target level of physical activity, with 27% attributing their levels of physical activity to the existence of local walking and cycling paths and routes. To understand if and how the network supports sustainable travel choices, any potential barriers or safety concerns facing users should be understood. Overall, route users view the network as being safe. Although 46% of route users disagreed that lighting on the network feels safe, this result should be considered carefully. Many rural and remote sections of the NWCN are not lit and it might be true that many users of the network do not expect them to be so. Further research into users’ expectations of the route and their facilities would be valuable to better understanding barriers and safety concerns on the network. Nonetheless, other than lighting, there do not appear to be any other concerns acting as a barrier to the network supporting sustainable travel choices, with members of the public reporting positive sentiments on access to amenities, scenery and landscapes on the route, ease of access, safety and quality of the path and signposting on the network.
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6.4 Headline figures
Table 5 The total number of walking and cycling trips made on the NWCN in 2016
Trips on NWCN Walking (including Cycling Total in 201625 dog walking) All 8,491,835 272,185 8,764,020
Recreational only 7,387,897 181,819 7,569,716
Purposeful only 1,103,938 90,366 1,194,304
Table 6 The total spend from all recreational cycling and walking trips made on the NWCN in 2016
Recreational spend on Walking (including Cycling Total NWCN in 2016 dog walking) All £83,850,468 £1,084,327 £84,934,795
25Please note that these estimates of the total number of walking and cycling trips on the network have been drawn from a selection of automatic counter sites on the NWCN. The proportion of cycling trips in this estimate may be lower than is observed at any one site on the network, due to limitations associated with the availability and quality of counter data across the NWCN. This has resulted in a high proportion of the network being associated with a count site where high pedestrian usage is observed compared to cyclist usage. We are considering how to improve the coverage of the data underlying our network usage estimate to improve robustness for future estimations. Please see Appendix 7.1 for a full description of the methodology used to derive this estimate.
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7 Appendix
Figure 1 The National Walking and Cycling Network in Scotland
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7.1 Methodology
This section will discuss in detail the methodology briefly outlined in Chapter 2, including the monitoring tools used (both site-specific and general), the analytical approaches, and their associated limitations and challenges.
The monitoring approach outlined below is the result of consultation between Sustrans and Scottish Natural Heritage about the objectives, timescales and resource available for this baseline monitoring exercise. This centred on seeking the best approach, given the timescales and resource available to monitor the three outcomes26 and nine objectives27 presented in the introduction section.
Monitoring tools
The monitoring approach involved two strands of data collection: A) site-specific and B) general. This is a reflection of the large scale of the National Walking and Cycling Network (NWCN) in its entirety and of the resource for site-specific data collection available through the project.
Site-specific data collection is integral to understanding usage on the network (i.e. the number of trips). Given the budget available, and the need to balance resource and activities across all of the outcomes and objectives for this project, the maximum possible number of routes were selected for site-specific data collection.
The monitoring under this project sought to understand not only usage, but the impact of the network on individuals, communities and businesses. It did not seem pertinent to limit the evidence-gathering from these network stakeholders to the same 16 routes that had been selected for site-specific data collection. For this reason, a general approach to data collection was also adopted. The objective of this general approach to data collection was to gather feedback on perceptions of the network, barriers to using the network and benefits of the network from an audience wider than those intercepted through the site-specific data collection.
A) Site-specific data collection
The following section outlines the tools that were used to carry out site-specific data collection (including route user surveys and automatic counter data) and provides an outline of the types of data and data collection approach for each tool. Route user surveys and manual counts
The Sustrans Route User Intercept Survey (RUIS), a specific route user survey designed by Sustrans RMU, is a survey which intercepts as many users on a route as possible over the age of sixteen, asking questions on journey purpose, travel behaviour, perceptions of safety and physical activity.
Given the scale of the National Walking and Cycling Network (comprising nearly 7,000km of long-distance walking and cycling routes across Scotland), it was not possible to conduct route user surveys on the entire network. Instead, 16 routes were
26 The three outcomes are: 1. Encourage more people to enjoy Scotland, 2. Strengthen local economies and 3. Support physical activity and sustainable travel choices 27 See page 11 for all nine objectives listed
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selected for data collection. The route selection was based on a number of different factors, including:
the strategic importance of individual projects within the network (e.g. projects improving connectivity); their geographical coverage; type of path (long-distance route; cycle way; canal towpath); anticipated type of use (active travel; recreation; tourism; local journeys versus longer visits utilising the network’s connectivity); anticipated development of the route (i.e. new path versus path upgrade).
The following routes were selected for data collection through route user surveys:
Deeside Way Caledonian Canal (Laggan Locks) Forth & Clyde Canal Union Canal The Pilgrim’s Way (St Fillans) Cowal Way Great Trossachs Path Mull of Galloway Trail Moray Coastal Trail Great Glen Way Borders Abbeys Way Cateran Trail John Muir Way Arran Coastal Way Manor Powis Clyde Walkway
Across these 16 routes, a total of 17 route user surveys were conducted as two route user surveys were carried out on the Great Glen Way.
At each location route user surveys were conducted over four 12-hour periods in September and October 2016. All surveys were conducted on one weekday and weekend day during both term time and school holidays. Manual counts of route users in each user category (age, mode and gender) were also recorded alongside each survey. There was no sampling of user survey respondents according to these recorded characteristics. A manual count conducted over 4 days facilitates the estimation of annual route usage at that location. The analysis process involved in estimating annual usage considers the day type on which the manual counts were collected and seasonality.
To present results relevant to the entire NWCN, results from all 17 route user survey sites have been aggregated and reported as one throughout this report. In total, 1,315 responses were received across all the route user surveys. All route user survey results presented in this report are unweighted.
Please note that, unless specified, all user survey responses reported reflect those collected from all route users (this includes walkers, cyclists, runners/joggers, dog walkers, wheelchair users, roller skaters and horse riders). Where questions have been directed to walkers or cyclists only, such responses reflect those from walkers (including dog walkers) and cyclists only.
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Automatic cycle and pedestrian counters
Automatic cycle and pedestrian counters record continuous counts of cyclists and/or pedestrians. Continuous counter data can provide a means of understanding walking or cycling usage over time, including any relationship between seasonality and the use of a route.
Spatial analysis techniques were used to identify all counters located on the NWCN network, or within 15 meters of the network. The counters identified (with appropriate data availability) were used to provide supplementary data on the annual number of cycling and walking trips at their location. These estimates have been used in conjunction with those generated from the manual counts to estimate usage across as much of the NWCN as possible.
B) General (online) data collection
The following section describes the monitoring tools that were used to collect data in a general (i.e. non site-specific) way. This includes the public survey and business survey. For each tool, the objectives of the tool and approach to data collection are outlined.
NWCN public survey
An NWCN public survey was used to collect data from the Scottish public, including users and beneficiaries of the network as well as individuals who may not be using the network, facilitating data-gathering on the use of long distance walking and cycling paths and routes and outdoor recreation behaviour from as wide an audience as possible.
The survey was primarily open-ended, designed to solicit evidence on the following:
Characteristics of users of the NWCN; Physical activity and outdoor recreation profiles; Self-reported health and wellbeing; Feedback on user experiences of using the NWCN; Barriers to walking and cycling on the NWCN, including perception of safety/risk; Awareness of the NWCN and named routes of the NWCN; Postcode data to match respondents with the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) data zones.
The public survey was distributed online. A survey link was hosted on both the Sustrans and Scottish Natural Heritage public websites and social media channels as well as being distributed through e-newsletters to subscribers of both organisations’ mailing lists. A number of partner organisations hosted the public survey link on their websites or shared the link through their social media channels, including Walk Highlands, the Cairngorms National Park, Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park, Ramblers Scotland, the Long Distance Walkers’ Association and Cycling Scotland.
A total of 595 responses were received between 1 February and 31 March 2017.
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Where question responses are quantitative, the percentage of responses received in each response category have been presented. For open-ended questions, all responses have been coded according to a number of themes. The percentage of responses falling under each theme has also been displayed.
For an understanding of the demographics of respondents to the public survey, please see Appendix 7.3. This provides a breakdown of survey respondents according to age group, gender, ethnicity and socio-economic status, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD).
Given the small sample size, respondents being self-selected and the survey having been actively promoted by organisations involved in promoting walking and cycling, results to the public survey should not be considered representative of the general public in Scotland. Nonetheless, such results can still begin to yield interesting insights into the public’s attitudes to the network.
NWCN business survey
A business survey, targeted at businesses located on the NWCN, was also conducted. This collected views or perceptions of how the development of LDRs, as part of the NWCN, has affected retail vitality, business income and employment. Businesses canvassed included not just those located on or near the routes selected for intense monitoring, but all businesses near the NWCN.
The survey questions were primarily open-ended, designed to solicit evidence on: Business type: size, industry, seasonality, revenue; Perceptions of the NWCN; Perceptions of NWCN impact on footfall, revenue, customer types and purpose of NWCN user trips; Awareness of the NWCN and local routes
The business survey was distributed online. The survey link was publicised on a number of partner websites, e-newsletters and other forums relevant to businesses located on or near NWCN routes. This included Visit Scotland, the Scottish Youth Hostel Association, Wild Scotland and the Scottish Tourism Alliance. The business survey was also distributed through local networks via LDR managers.
Business email contact details, where available, were also used to distribute the survey link directly to businesses. 93 businesses were contacted using this direct approach. There were 43 responses received to the business survey between 1st February and 31st March 2017.
Where question responses were quantitative in nature, the percentage of responses received in each response category have been presented. For open-ended questions, all responses have been coded according to a number of themes. The percentage of responses falling under each theme has also been displayed.
For a presentation of results on the type and characteristics of businesses who responded to the survey, please see Appendix 7.4. This provides information on the type of businesses, including their revenue, number of employees, customer base and the seasonality of their business activity.
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Analytical approaches
The following section describes the analytical approaches taken to develop the findings presented in this report. These include annual usage estimates derived from the automatic counter and manual count data gathered, the estimated number of trips taking place on the network and an understanding of the economic impact of usage on the network. Baseline Annual Usage Estimates from automatic counters and manual counts
Manual count data (collected concurrently with each route user survey) was analysed to generate annual usage estimates (AUEs) for each of the individual sites where the counts were conducted. These were calculated by comparing data from the manual counts conducted over four days with observed distributions of use from a set of over 200 comparison automatic counters for which full year data is available. The calculation also took into account the day type on which the survey took place (weekday, weekend day, school term, school holiday). The same approach is used for any automatic counter that has over 100 days of count data within a calendar year to calculate an annual usage estimate.
For manual counts, weightings by age category, gender and activity were applied to refine the annual usage estimate and to provide figures split by age category, gender and activity. Where weighting was not possible because there are too few observations in the survey data compared to the manual count data, the overall annual usage estimate is based on the unweighted total counts, day type and a representative annual trend.
Estimating walking and cycling usage on the NWCN This section outlines the methodology used to develop an estimate of the total number of cycling and walking trips made on the NWCN in 2016.
The analysis approach was dependent on GIS-based analysis and was therefore conducted only on those routes which are part of the NWCN and had a digital shapefile available for use. Please see Figure 2 for a full list and map of the routes included in this exercise. For the purposes of this exercise, the NWCN was therefore defined to include all of Scotland’s Great Trails, the Forth and Clyde and Union canal towpaths, NCN76 and the Caledonia Way (NCN78).
Where any network usage estimate is presented in this report, the ‘network’ therefore refers to these routes only28. The full extent of this network has a length of 3,872km, with limited usage data available across it. In total 17 route user surveys (with accompanying manual counts) and 35 automatic counters have been drawn upon to estimate the number of walking and cycling trips made along this network of routes in 2016.
28 In any other context, the NWCN or ‘network’ includes all of Scotland’s Great Trails, the National Cycle Network, Scottish canal towpaths and new routes and links being developed under the NWCN Project Plan.
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Figure 2 Map showing all routes and ACC and route user survey locations used in the estimation of walking and cycling levels on the NWCN
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i. Spatial mapping of the routes of interest and available usage monitoring points
An exercise was first undertaken to map all of the route user surveys that were delivered on the routes under examination, as well as all known automatic counter locations in Scotland (please see Figure 2). Any route user survey or automatic counter location has been termed a count point, as either can provide an estimation of cycling and/or walking levels at their location.
All routes under examination were then also mapped and spatial analysis techniques used to identify all count points that are located directly on the network. Upon scrutiny of the data, it became clear that not all the count points known to lie directly on the network were being shown as intersecting directly with the routes. This was due to differences in the scales at which the route shapefiles and the count points were digitised. A sensitivity test was therefore run to identify an appropriate buffer around the routes from which to identify all count points. A distance of 15m was deemed appropriate, after a buffer of 20m was shown to pick up a large quantity of count points not located on the NWCN, while a buffer of 10m was shown to increase our original cohort of counters by only a small number.
At each identified count location, an annual usage estimate for 2016 was calculated. It is important to note that manual counts include separate counts of both cyclists and pedestrians, and therefore allow for the estimation of both cycling and walking annual usage estimates at each count point. Automatic counters however, often collect counts from just a single mode of transport, or don’t differentiate between multiple modes.
In instances where a counter has collected only a cyclist count, pedestrian counts are estimated using the known split of cyclist and pedestrians from manual counts and/or existing automatic counters on that route. The same methodology has been applied to pedestrian only counters and those counters which record both modes but have not differentiated their counts by mode.
ii. Categorisation of sections of route on the network according to usage- relevant variables
Once annual usage estimates had been calculated for each count point, the next stage was to use the data to estimate usage across the whole network. To do so, Sustrans’ methodology for estimating walking and cycling use on the National Cycling Network (NCN) was employed. This methodology is premised on the assumption that a section of route will share the same annual usage as any other section of route which shares the same characteristics that affect cycling and walking levels. Such an approach allows for the extrapolation from sections of route where levels of usage are known to sections of route where usage is unknown. This means that we can therefore estimate usage along an entire network.
We first divide the entire mapped network into small sections of equal distance (2km in this instance). It is assumed that the characteristics of each section are consistent along its entire 2km length.
Each section of route is then categorised according to two key variables understood to be relevant determinants of usage along the network: population gravity and ‘usage attractor indicator’. These variables have been selected based on a combination of Sustrans' RMU’s expertise in understanding the drivers of walking and cycling usage
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and the availability of relevant data. They can be seen to represent the demand for the route – the size of the nearby population – and the degree to which the route attracts users. iii. Population Gravity
Sustrans’ work on developing a method for estimating usage on the NCN showed the population living in the vicinity of a route to be one of the most important variables affecting levels of cycle usage on a segment of the NCN. It is assumed to play a similar role for usage on the NWCN. Population gravity is a population measure that accounts for the proximity of a population to a location by weighting the population size according to its distance from a location.
In this case, population weighted centroid data from the 2011 census was used to identify the population sizes that lived within 2km, 4km, 6km, 8km and 10km of the centre-point of each route section. The population size within each band was then divided by the square of the distance from the centre point, to give more weight to those residents living closer to a route. Each value is then summed to give a single population gravity value for each 2km route section. The population gravity values are then divided into quintiles. The higher the population gravity value for each section, the greater the demand from the nearby population which is likely to positively influence levels of cycling and walking on the NWCN. iv. Usage attractor indicator
A usage attractor indicator was also developed to capture elements of route familiarity and/or popularity that are also assumed to be a key determinant of route usage. Each NWCN route under examination was scored according to each of the following indicators, with a higher score given where the indicator is deemed to have a positive impact on walking and cycling levels.
Table 7 Usage attractor indicator
Indicator Scoring mechanism Data source Familiarity Age of route derived from route Route websites, alternative opening year internet sources Stage of route Route development status: Records of inception development Well-established; advanced new meeting notes between development, newly upgraded, Sustrans and SNH, SNH newly developed; incomplete Commisioned Report development No.38029 Type of usage Walkers only; walkers, cyclists SNH Commisioned Report (parts); walkers, cyclists No.3801 Online Registered walkers on Walk Highlands website, presence WalkHighlands.com who have online sources completed the route Branding Type of route (i.e. Scotland’s Great SNH Commisioned Report Trail or not), promotion status No.3801
29 Peter Scott Planning Services (2010). Developing the Network of Longer Distance Routes. Scottish Natural Heritage Commissioned Report No. 380 (Tender No. 28776).
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The scores given against each indicator were then summed for each route, giving an overall usage attractor indicator for each. The scores were then categorised as being either above or below the median score, grouped as either ‘high’ or ‘low’ respectively. Each 2km section of route was then allocated the same ‘high’ or ‘low’ score as the route on which it was located.
v. Extrapolation of usage data across route sections with similar usage- relevant variables
Each 2km section of the entire network has now been assigned to a population gravity quintile and has a usage attractor indicator attached. The 2km sections of route which also coincide with a count point also have an annual usage estimate for both pedestrians and cyclists assigned to them.
These AUEs are then assigned to all of the sections that fall into the same category. If more than one AUE is available for any category, the median AUE for that category is used. This matching methodology provides a means of extrapolating the available count data to unmonitored sections of the route which share the same usage- determining characteristics.
vi. Development of a network usage estimate
From the route user surveys that were conducted on the network, it is known that the average cycling and walking trips on the network are 37km and 9km in length respectively. With this in mind, it is clear that any trip counted in one 2km section of route will likely also be recorded in adjacent 2km sections too. To account for this, the annual usage estimate in each route section is multiplied by the distance of that route section (2km) to give an estimate of cycling and walking ‘usage kilometres’ for that section. This value is then divided by the average trip distance of the relevant mode of transport.
This methodology allows for an estimation of the number of individual trips being made in each 2km section of route in a year. These trips can then be summed across the entire network to give an overall estimation of the number of walking and cycling trips that are being made in a year.
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Estimating the economic impact of the NWCN
Recreation Expenditure Model (REM)
Sustrans RMU, in association with the University of Central Lancashire (UCLAN), has developed a model to estimate the local economic impact of cycle tourism. Originally developed in 2007, it has been iteratively updated, most recently in October 2016. In May 2017, we completed the development of a pedestrian Recreational Expenditure Model (REM).
The Sustrans Recreational Expenditure Models (REMs) can be used to estimate the economic impact of cycling and walking tourism based on an estimate of annual ‘spend per head’ for all recreational walking or cycling users on a route. The estimated expenditure of home-based and tourist users can be differentiated.
The REM tool also provides an estimate of the number of full time equivalent (FTE) jobs that this level of recreational expenditure would support.
The outputs from the Recreational Expenditure Models are not typically included in conventional economic appraisals, but represent an important component of the economic contribution of recreational cycling and walking routes. The outputs are indicative, rather than precise. They provide an evidence base for furthering the development of a successful strategy for investing in walking and cycling, and the associated economic impact of this investment.
The estimated recreational economic impact has been calculated across the National Walking and Cycling Network as a whole. This is based on an overall estimate of usage for the entire network and extrapolation of data gathered by the route user surveys.
Limitations and challenges
It is important to acknowledge the limitations and challenges with any data collection and analysis task, not only to aid careful interpretation of the results, but to also better guide the methodology in any repeat monitoring exercise. Whilst this section proceeds to outline the limitations and challenges with the methodologies used here, it should be reiterated that the approach was based on a wealth of experience from Sustrans’ Research and Monitoring Unit and reflects robust and rigorous means of data collection and analysis suited for the purposes required here.
I. Data collection
Resource
The data collection methodology used on this project was driven to some extent by the resource available.
One of the main elements of the monitoring where resource has had an impact is on data collection through the route user surveys. This was limited to a total of 17 route user survey sites, 9 of which were funded directly through this project. The additional 8 route user survey sites were funded through separate Sustrans projects30 occurring
30 This includes the Sustrans Scotland National Cycle Network (NCN) monitoring and the Community Links project
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over the same timeframe. Given more resource, it would have been desirable to conduct additional route user surveys include a higher number of routes in this data collection.
Each route user survey represents a very useful monitoring count point on the network and provides both accurate usage data and an insight into the preferences and characteristics of route users. It was hoped that counter data would help to overcome the limitations in route user survey data availability. However, the installation of counters on the network requires resource and no new counters were introduced to the network throughout this project. Furthermore, not all new counters which were installed on the network during this time period (but not through this project) have been included in this analysis due to time and resource constraints. The collation of data from existing counters is also affected by resource limitations and faces its own challenges (detailed further in the Data analysis section). It is hoped that a larger cohort of counters will be included in future network usage estimates.
Both the public survey and business survey data collection approaches were also influenced by the resource available to deliver the project. Given the resource commitment to conduct 9 route user surveys, an online data collection methodology was selected for both surveys. Alternative data collection methodologies that were not within the scope of this project were face-to-face data collection (i.e. by interview), telephone data collection or paper-based data collection (i.e. using paper survey forms).
Timescales and time of year
The timescale and time of year at which this project occurred also played a role in the planning and execution of the data collection. In particular, this affected the site- specific data collection through route user surveys.
A reporting deadline of June 2017 for this project meant that route user survey data were gathered in autumn 2016 to allow for all analyses to occur in advance of the report publication. Due to the recreational/holiday-based nature of usage on many long-distance walking and cycling paths and routes, the route user surveys need to capture holiday usage. This can be understood by carrying out data collection outside of local school term-times. To facilitate this, the route user surveys were carried out in October 2016 to capture the school half-term holidays in Scotland. Based on the understanding that Sustrans has of the seasonality of walking and cycling usage over the year, October can be considered a fringe month for usage activity. This is associated with seasonal weather patterns and the impact this has on walking and cycling.
All route user survey data analysed by Sustrans is converted into an annual estimate of usage through the application of a seasonality curve to what is observed during the four-day data collection window. The accuracy of this process is dependent on the four-day data collection window being ‘normal’ in order to be representative of year- round usage. Not all of the routes on the network have counter data available to provide a direct comparison for seasonal usage on the route.
Unfortunately, in the case of this project, there was very bad weather (strong winds and rain) on the 28th September 2016. This was a date when many route user surveys were scheduled for data collection. Data collected proceeded on this specific day (due to the impetus to capture non term-time usage) but the response rates and observations in the manual count could be considered to be low. It would be
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reasonable to assume that the usage data obtained on this day is lower than normal, due to the weather. For this reason, the annual usage estimates derived could be considered to be conservative and the low sample sizes have meant that weighting of results could not robustly be applied in the analysis process.
Self-selection and social desirability bias in public survey
Data collection for the public survey was carried out using an online approach. The online survey link was distributed via Sustrans and Scottish Natural Heritage online channels, as well as through relevant partner websites and social media channels. The methodology used means that survey respondents are self-selecting; by using the online distribution channels of organisations who operate within the walking, cycling and outdoor recreation spaces, the sample is also likely to be biased in favour of people with an interest in these activities. This can be illustrated by the fact that 87% of public survey respondents visit the outdoors at least once a week (Chart 10), compared to a national average of 49% (Scottish Household Survey 2015). The public survey sample should therefore not be regarded as being representative of the adult population in Scotland, but rather biased in favour of those who interested in and actively using walking and cycling routes more regularly in Scotland.
Similarly, as with any survey, there may be a degree of social desirability bias reflected in the survey responses. What this means is that respondents answer questions in terms of how they wish to be perceived rather than being fully honest about their behaviour. This applies to the questions asked of physical activity, walking and cycling activity and outdoor recreation behaviour in the public survey. Social desirability bias may also play a role in the responses to the route user survey and business survey.
Business survey audience
The use of an online data collection approach for the business survey did not generate the same volume of responses as the public survey (also using this online data collection approach), despite the deployment of a promotion strategy to accompany the online survey. There were 46 responses received in total.
Our success in reaching businesses via an online approach was largely dependent on other actors (i.e. long-distance route managers and an online forum for relevant businesses). In terms of the long-distance route managers, the success of this approach was dependent on the scale and strength of their contacts with regard to businesses that are on or near the network.
When a more direct approach was taken (by emailing the survey link directly to businesses) it became apparent that the links between long-distance routes on the network and local businesses vary. This is indicated by the variation in business advertising or business listings that are available on route websites.
II. Data analysis
Weighting of route user survey outputs
Conducting both a manual count and a route user survey concurrently provides an opportunity to weight survey responses according to observations in the manual count.
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Weightings by age category, gender and activity were applied to refine the analysis outputs. To avoid skew in the analysis outputs through the weighting, there must be sufficient survey observations in each of the demographic response categories from the survey. The minimum sample size is based on what is observed in the manual count. If there is an insufficient user survey sample size (compared to observations in the manual count), it is not possible to provide weighted analysis outputs.
In the case of the route user surveys conducted under this project, the response rates meant that weighting could not be applied to the analysis of survey outputs in the majority of cases.
Counter data availability and access
As the ability to conduct route user surveys on the network was limited, automatic cycle and pedestrian counter data were sought to provide increased usage data to include in the development of a network usage estimate.
The identification of counter data to include in the analysis for this project was limited by the difficulties in identifying all active counters across Scotland. These are all installed, owned and managed by different stakeholders and there is no coherent database that identifies all counters currently active across Scotland. Furthermore, the NWCN spans multiple Local Authority areas meaning that the resource implications of collating data are multiplied. The implications of this are that multiple actors (across Local Authorities) need to be contacted for up to date counter data and for permission to use the data.
Counter data availability and the Whole Scheme Usage Estimate (WSUE) tool Sustrans RMU has a Whole Scheme Usage Estimate (WSUE) tool that has been developed to obtain estimates of annual usage for longer routes and small networks (i.e. city or town-based). At the project’s inception, it was the intention to use the WSUE approach to estimate usage of the NWCN.
In order to use the WSUE tool, the number of usage data collection points must be sufficient to be considered representative of the network as a whole. Given the large scale of the NWCN and the limited route user survey data collection that occurred, the availability of automatic cycle and pedestrian counter data was needed to ensure a sufficient number of count points were used in the development of any network usage estimate. Under this monitoring exercise, there was insufficient counter data available and therefore, the WSUE approach and tool were not used to develop a network usage estimate.
For the NWCN baseline usage estimate, the availability of counter data was also limited by data not being provisable or accessible to Sustrans RMU, the limited number of counters in existence on the network to draw data from and the resource implications of collating a large amount of counter data from multiple sources that is provided in a variety of formats, each of which must be analysed differently.
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Spatial analysis limitations
In order to estimate the number of trips occurring on the National Walking and Cycling Network (NWCN) per year, a spatial layer for the network was required. Given the scope of the site-specific data that had been collected and the spatial data available, the network was defined as Scotland’s Great Trails, the Forth and Clyde and Union canal towpaths, NCN76 and the Caledonia Way (NCN78). In any other context, the NWCN or ‘network’ includes all of Scotland’s Great Trails, the National Cycle Network, Scottish canal towpaths and any new routes and links being developed under the NWCN Project Plan. It has been a limitation that the NWCN in its entirety has not been considered under this analysis. This is due both to the availability of spatial data and the coverage of usage data on the network (see following section).
Additionally, the development of a network usage estimate under this project has been predicated on the availability of shapefile data to underpin a spatial analysis approach. It has been identified that the scale of the Scotland’s Great Trails shapefile has meant that this geo-spatial layer did not map entirely accurately onto the National Cycle Network (NCN) and route user survey/counter data layers also being used by Sustrans. To overcome this, a buffer of 15m was used in the spatial analysis to calculate a network usage estimate. This 15m represents the buffer distance to identify any counters situated on the network itself.
This buffer has overcome the limitations in terms of differing shapefile scales, but has introduced a small propensity for error into the counter identification phase. Ideally, all shapefiles would be of the same quality and scale.
Data coverage on the network
Overall, the development of a network usage estimate has used 17 route user surveys and 35 automatic counters. While this exercise made use of the maximum number of route user surveys that could be commissioned within the resources available and sought the inclusion of data from all relevant counter locations, this still represents limited data coverage across the network as a whole. Complete data coverage across the entire network is not an achievable goal.
The approach to developing a network usage estimate is highly reasoned and is capable of handling incomplete data coverage, but it is worth bearing in mind this estimate has come from a total of 52 count points.
Counter data coverage across geographical areas
When identifying counters for inclusion in the development of a network usage estimate, it was found that the availability of counter data is more prevalent in urban areas compared to rural areas. This is likely explained by the need to position counters where there is more usage i.e. more people, but this presents a limitation in understanding usage in low population or low usage areas.
The limited counter data coverage in rural or low-population areas has constrained the development of a network usage estimate using multiple ‘usage-relevant variables’ (see page 59) due to the limited data availability.
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Recommendations for future monitoring
In order to measure progress against the above three outcomes as the network is developed, a repeat iteration monitoring exercise will be required. This will allow for a comparison of results with those presented in this baseline report to determine what changes have occurred.
This repeat monitoring exercise provides an opportunity to apply recommendations for an improved monitoring strategy, to build on the data collection that has occurred at baseline and ensure that the impacts of the NWCN are measured as robustly and accurately as possible.
The following recommendations for an improved monitoring strategy are presented for each monitoring tool.
Route user surveys
In future iterations of monitoring, it would be ideal to aim for an earlier data collection period (such as in August or September) to allow for the following:
The weather is less likely to have implications on usage in the months of August and September. This provides an opportunity to capture an increased number of users, improving the survey sample size and allowing for weighted (and seasonally adjusted) analysis outputs to be calculated. Increased flexibility in the selection of survey dates. For example, holiday usage could be captured over bank holidays, non-term time days in August and/or the October half-term break if needed. If extremely bad weather occurred on a planned survey date in August, the October half-term break provides a back-up data collection option to avoid similar response rate issues.
Automatic cycle and pedestrian counter data
The recommendations related to automatic cycle and pedestrian count data relate to the development of a network usage estimate.
For any future iterations of monitoring on the NWCN, the importance of additional usage data from counters should play a more central role. This includes both starting the process of collating and obtaining counter data earlier in the project as well as a consideration of where additional counters may need to be installed to provide an improved level of usage data coverage across the NWCN. This should take into account the limitations on coverage across the network as a whole (i.e. number of count points to network size) as well as the spread of counters across different geographic areas in Scotland (i.e. urban and rural).
The installation of counters has a financial implication and a methodology has been developed to estimate network usage without using the WSUE tool. It would be entirely possible to deploy the same methodology to obtain a network usage estimate in future.
However, as well as providing a means of better understanding usage on the network, any counters that are installed will enhance the usage data available on specific routes/in any local area. Therefore, the role that counter data can play in understanding local route-based usage should be considered.
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Business survey
In any future iteration of monitoring, a higher sample size of business survey respondents would be desirable. This would provide a better understanding of the business impacts of the network from a larger number of locations and business types/contexts.
To accomplish this, the following recommendations provide some options for improvements:
Accompany an online data collection methodology with paper-based data collection. This could involve the distribution of the survey through local business networks or a strategy of mailing hard copies of the survey to businesses where mailing addresses are available. Accompany an online data collection methodology with telephone-based or face-to-face data collection to ensure direct access to businesses and obtain more responses.
There are two things that need to be considered when selecting an improved data collection methodology:
The above two recommendations require that individual businesses located on or near the NWCN are identified in advance of the data collection occurring and that their relevant contact details (mailing address or telephone number) are available. There are resource implications for both of the above strategies that would be additional to the online data collection approach. There is a resource implication for any data entry that would be required for paper-based survey data collection. Any telephone or face-to-face data collection has cost implications due to the resource required (including any travel costs under face- to-face data collection).
Any improved or adapted approach will need to balance the desired scope or sample size for the business survey against the associated cost.
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7.2 Route User Intercept Survey Overview
The following table provides detail on all 17 route user survey sites that were used in this analysis.
Table 8 Overview of route user surveys
Route Name Local Authority / Easting, Northing Access Authority NCN76 (Manor Powis) Stirling 282251, 695060 Caledonian Canal (Laggan Locks) Highland 228710, 796499 Arran Coastal Way North Ayrshire 200917, 636761 Mull of Galloway Trail Dumfries and Galloway 208326, 562584 Argyll and Bute, 272006, 676916 West Dunbartonshire, East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, Falkirk, John Muir Way Stirling, Edinburgh, West Lothian, East Lothian, Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park Loch Lomond and the 249443, 707555 Great Trossachs Path Trossachs National Park Argyll and Bute, 198026, 669953 Cowal Way (Tank’s Landing) Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park Perth and Kinross, 313689, 751141 Cateran Trail Angus Aberdeen City, 393436, 804561 Deeside Way Aberdeenshire, Cairngorms National Park Glasgow City, 260582, 663176 Clyde Walkway North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire Moray Coastal Trail Moray 348213, 868422 Borders Abbeys Way Scottish Borders 366184, 624123 Union Canal Edinburgh City 323435, 671592 Bowling, Forth and Clyde Canal Glasgow City 245119, 673579 Great Glen Way (Abriachan) Highland Council 253978, 835345 Great Glen Way (Banavie) Highland Council 211745, 777316 Cross Scotland Pilgrim’s Way (St Loch Lomond and the 269922, 724312 Filian’s) Trossachs National Park
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7.3 Public Survey Respondent Demographics
The following section provides information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of respondents to the NWCN public survey. The public survey received 595 responses between 1 February and 31 March 2017.
Age The majority of respondents were aged between 35 and 64 years of age (69%). Within the 35 – 44 years, 45 – 54 years and 55 – 64 years age groups, there were 23% respondents in each category. The least represented age group in the survey was the youngest (16 – 20 years) at only 1% of all respondents.
Scotland as a whole has a population of approximately 5.3 million31, with 29% aged under 24 and 16% aged 65 or above. Responses to the public survey therefore reflect an older population than is present in Scotland more broadly.
Chart 43 Age (Public survey, N = 593)
25% 23% 23% 23%
20%
15% 15%
11% 10%
5% 3%
0% 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Ethnicity The majority of respondents to the survey were white, at 95%. No responses in other ethnicity categories were received, but 4% of respondents recorded that they preferred not to state their ethnicity.
31 Scottish Government, 2017. Available at: http://www.scotland.org/about-scotland/facts-about-scotland/population- of-scotland (Accessed 14 June 2017)
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Chart 44 Ethnicity (Public survey, N = 589) 100% 95% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 4% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Gender The results show that slightly more men responded to the survey than women (52% and 47% of respondents respectively). 1% of respondents preferred not to say.
Chart 45 Gender (Public survey, N = 587) 60% 52% 50% 47%
40%
30%
20%
10% 1% 0% Female Male Prefer not to say
Socio-economic status The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) is a Scottish Government tool that measures the relative deprivation of data zones in Scotland according to 38 indicators. Respondents to the public survey were asked for their home postcode. If supplied by the respondent, this postcode was used to identify the respondent’s corresponding SIMD data zone. This was possible for 491 individuals, representing 83% of all survey respondents.
The SIMD is a relative measure of deprivation, meaning that deprivation in a particular data zone is understood based on how it compares to others.
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For the purposes of this analysis, the data zones of public survey respondents have been reviewed in terms of both quintiles and deciles. If an individual is in the first quintile, they are ranked in the highest 20% of all data zones in Scotland according to deprivation (i.e. the 20% of most deprived data zones in Scotland). Similarly, if an individual is in the top decile, they are located in a postcode that is ranked in the highest 10% of all data zones in Scotland (i.e. the 10% most deprived data zones in Scotland).
The information in Chart 46 below shows that most respondents are in the fourth and fifth quintiles of deprivation (i.e. the 40% least deprived data zones), at 38% of all respondents. There are 19% of respondents in both the fourth and fifth SIMD quintiles. There were 3% of respondents who rank in the highest 20% of SIMD data zones according to the postcode provided32.
Chart 46 SIMD: Respondents according to their home postcode SIMD quintile (Public survey, N = 595) 25%
19% 19% 20%
15% 15%
10% 7%
5% 3%
0% 1 2 3 4 5
When the SIMD data zones of all survey respondents are looked at according to deciles, it shows that the highest recorded category is the 7th decile, with 12% of respondents providing a postcode that is ranked as such. There is low representation at the higher end of the deprivation rankings, with only 2% of respondents in the highest deprivation decile and 2% of respondents in the second highest32.
Chart 47 SIMD: Respondents according to their home postcode SIMD quintile (Public survey, N = 595) 14%
12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%
0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
32 Please note that 37% of postcodes provided could not be linked to a SIMD data zone, hence results presented here do not add up to 100%.
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7.4 Business Survey Respondent Details
The following section outlines data collected from respondents to the business survey, providing an understanding of the types of businesses who participated.
Business type The results in Chart 48 show that, for those not in the ‘Other’ category, most of the business survey responses came from bed and breakfasts (20%) and tour providers (15%). A breakdown of the business types that fall into the ‘Other’ category is provided in Table 9 below.
Chart 48 – Which of the following best describes your business? (Business survey, N = 41)
Bed & breakfast 20%
Tour provider 15%
Hostel 7%
Hotel/guesthouse 7%
Restaurant 7%
Camping/caravan park 5%
Retail 5%
Bicycle hire 5%
Tourist information 2%
Public house 2%
Other 24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Table 9 Which of the following best describes your business? (If other, please specify results) (Business survey, N = 10)
Other business type Frequency Consultancy (Healthcare) 1 Tourist attractions 2 Self catering cabin 4 Publishing services 1 Regional park with café, cycle 1 hire/club, outdoor activity centre Timber Frame Manufacturer 1
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Awareness of the NWCN To get an understanding of awareness of the NWCN among local businesses, business respondents were asked what routes for walking and cycling were in their proximity. The responses to this listed 10 different named routes. There were also mentions of canal paths, coastal paths, other local routes and NCN, but all unnamed. A full list of responses is provided in Table 10.
Table 10 What paths and routes for walking and cycling are in proximity to your business? (Business survey, N = 40)
Route name Frequency % Other local route 16 24% NCN 14 21% Great Glen Way 6 9% Coastal path (unnamed) 6 9% Speyside Way 4 6% Great Trossachs Path 3 4% John Muir Way 3 4% Comrie/St Fillans 3 4% Borders Abbeys Way 2 3% Dava Way 2 3% Callander 2 3% St Cuthbert's Way 2 3% Canal path (unnamed) 2 3% Not sure 2 3% Rob Roy Way 1 1% Total 68 100%
Business revenue
The results on business revenue in Chart 49 show that a range of businesses (in terms of income) responded to the survey. The highest revenue response category was of business income between £200,000 and £399,999, with 18% of respondents falling into this income category.
Chart 49 – Could you please indicate which of the following best represents your business income for the financial year (April 2016 – March 2017)? (Business survey, N = 40)
£1,000,000+ 3% £400,000 - £749,999 8% £200,000 - £399,999 18% £100,000 - £149,999 8% £75,000 - £99,999 8% £50,000 - £74,999 15% £25,000 - £49,999 10% £10,000 - £24,999 15% £5,000 - £9,999 10% £0 - £4,999 8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
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Business seasonality
The following charts provide an understanding of how seasonal the business activity is of those who responded to the survey. In this survey, the in season was defined as April to September. The out of season period was defined as October to March. Based on the results displayed in Chart 50, business income among respondents is seasonal, with 82% of all respondents stating that they receive 70% or more of their total business income in the ‘in season’, including 41% who state that 70% of their income is generated between April and September.
Chart 50 – What proportion of your business income do you receive in the following time periods? (In season) (Business survey, N = 39)
45% 41% 40%
35%
30%
25% 21% 20%
15% 13% 10% 10% 10% 5% 5%
0% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Proportion of business income
As shown in Chart 51, 14% of businesses report that they do not generate any income ‘out of season’. This supports the notion that the businesses responding to the survey have a very seasonal pattern to their income generation. There are some businesses who report generating more of their income between October and March than in the ‘in season’, with 22% of respondents stating they generate 50% or more of their income in this time period.
Chart 51 - What proportion of your business income do you receive in the following time periods? (Out of season) (Business survey, N = 37) 35% 32%
30%
25%
20% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14%
10% 8%
5%
0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 50% 60% Proportion of business income
Overall, the picture among business respondents is one of season income generation.
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Business age
The majority of businesses who responded to the survey have been open less than 10 years (60% of all survey respondents).
Chart 52 – How many years has your business been open? (Business survey, N = 35) 70% 60% 60%
50%
40%
30% 20% 20% 9% 10% 6% 6%
0% 1-10 years 11-20 years 21-30 years 31-50 years 51+ years
Employment
In terms of the scale of employment supported through the businesses who have responded to the survey, the majority are small-scale businesses where they either do not employ anyone additional to the business owner (31% of all respondents) or employ between 1 to 5 people (41%).
Chart 53 – How many people do you employ? (Business survey, N = 39) 45% 41% 40%
35% 31% 30%
25% 23%
20%
15%
10%
5% 3% 3%
0% 0 1 to 5 6 to 15 15 to 40 > 40
Results from all of the business survey respondents on the employment status of their staff show that 34% of all employees are part-time, with 32% of employees having full- time status. 33% of all staff employed by businesses who responded to the survey are employed on a seasonal basis.
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Chart 54 – How many people do you employ in each of the following categories? (Business survey, N = 24) 35.0%
34.5% 34%
34.0%
33.5% 33%
33.0%
32.5% 32%
32.0%
31.5%
31.0% Full-time Part-time Seasonal
Customer base
According to responses to the business survey, the customer base of respondents is quite varied across all of the categories included in the survey. Responses show that an almost equal number of all businesses report having a customer base from Scotland (80%), the UK (not Scotland) (80%) and international locations (83%).
In terms of the participation of customers in walking and/or cycling, nearly two-thirds of businesses estimated that their customer base includes leisure walkers (63%) with a further 38% being leisure cyclists.
Chart 55 – How would you describe your typical customer base? (Business survey, N = 40) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Local residents 30% Leisure cyclists 38% Leisure walkers 63% Out of town weekend visitors 50% Out of town day-trippers 23% Out of town long-stay tourists 35% Visitors from Scotland 80% Visitors from the UK (not Scotland) 80% International visitors 83% Other 20%
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7.5 Public and Business Survey Open-text Analysis
Table 11 Business Survey Open-text Analysis Themes
What role, if any, do local walking and cycling paths and routes have in your business marketing activities? (e.g. on your website, in your promotional leaflets, etc.) Promoted on own website Mention of promotion via their own website Promoted on other website Mention of promotion via external website Mention of promotion using leaflets that are self- Promoted in own leaflets published Advertised/promoted via word of Mention of promotion through word of mouth mouth Promoted via social media Mention of promotion using social media platforms Promoted via guest Mention of promotion through guest information packs information/welcome pack or information provided to guests at ‘welcome’ Other means includes magazine articles, newspaper Promoted using other means articles, individuals on NCN routes, at local cycling shops. Mention of promoting routes to encourage exercise Used to promote healthy lifestyle and a healthy lifestyle
What are your expectations for how the further development of local walking and cycling paths and routes will affect your business? Business growth Anticipation that business will grow. Anticipation of more customers, visitors and higher Increased customers/footfall footfall. Longer stays Mention of customers booking extended stays Anticipation of more activity in fringe season months, Extended season an extended season and increased customers in ‘quieter’ times Increased revenue Anticipation of increased business revenue Broaden customer base Comments on broader customer base Increased awareness of healthy Anticipation of a greater awareness of the need to lifestyles travel actively for health and physical activity Increased demand for Includes cycle parking, signage, bike servicing and walking/cycling facilities repairs. Increased active commuting Uptake in active travel for commuting. Active statement that there will be no change rather Make no difference than a blank response. Other includes comments on increased collaboration/partnership between organisations, Other easier access for all, greater potential for litter, increased bike sales/servicing.
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Table 12 Public Survey Open-text Analysis Themes
In your view, what can be done to improve the walking and cycling paths and routes you have used? Includes general maintenance, clearing litter, repairs, Maintenance cutting back vegetation, improving surfaces, drainage, improving lighting, widening paths. Additional signposting along the route desirable, including Signage an indication of distances. Repair existing signs and check if all in appropriate places. Promotion of existing routes, improving available information, improving map quality, online information, Information information on access to routes (travel to), the suitability of routes for different users and on local facilities wanted. Conflicts between users, especially dog walkers (off-lead, Issues with other users leaving mess) and cyclists (speeding). Access to routes sometimes difficult with active or sustainable travel. Increased links with public transport Access needed. Disability and child access needs improvement. Issues with landowners and livestock. Issues with barriers incl. kissing gates. Desire for more routes, especially those that link to existing More routes routes. Increased facilities related to benches, bins and toilets. More facilities Also nearby parking and cafes. Variation in quality7.5 Quality of routes varies across a network Segregation from motorised traffic and between cyclist and Segregation (safety) pedestrians. Wellbeing Increased use with community groups to support Comments related to routes being less promoted so more Less promotion/development potential for ‘discovery’; desire to leave routes natural rather than developed. Comments related to development being detrimental to the Protect natural environment surrounding environment. Awareness of limitations of what can be done to improve; Appreciation of limitations acknowledgement of difficulties in finding a single solution for all stakeholders.
If you don’t currently walk or cycling on the National Walking and Cycling Network, what would encourage you to make more use of the network in future? Are there any barriers in particular that are stopping you from doing so? Access by public transport or active travel difficult. Access Access issues for families with children or those with disabilities. Routes not connected. Lack of awareness of existing routes (more advertisement Awareness needed). Better information on routes. Improve maintenance of existing routes, including Maintenance drainage, litter, repairs, signage, etc. Barriers as a safety issue. Issues with motorised traffic Safety on/near routes. Some routes are near busy roads and only accessible in this way. Other users as a barrier – speeding cyclists, anti-social Other users behaviour. Heath conditions including mental health as barriers. Health and wellbeing Confidence in using the network. Need for more local routes Respondents would use routes if they were nearer. Personal choice not to use the NWCN or use other paths Personal choice instead.
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