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Sector Update October 2009 MOBILE SECTOR

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Sector Update October 2009 MOBILE SECTOR INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH Sector Update MOBILE SECTOR BUCKING THE M&A TREND – October 2009 ACQUISITION VALUES UP 77% FROM 2008 Media & Technology After Numerous False Starts Mobile M&A Enters New Phase 750 65 63 2009 has seen a major turnaround in M&A activity in the mobile sector with YTD 650 603 60 transaction value reaching $603m vs. $340m in 2008 – an increase of 77%. 550 59 Sub-sectors that have received particular interest include Advertising, Payments 450 55 340 350 and Entertainment as strategic players seek to fill gaps in their portfolio and lay 250 50 foundations for new revenue streams. 150 Transaction Number Transaction Value ($m) 45 50 (50) 40 Jan - Sep 2008 Jan - Sep 2009 Mobile Sector Overcoming Early Restraints and Entering Transaction Value Transaction Number Commercial Phase with Force Mobile Advertising Initially, many mobile players faced difficulties scaling their businesses due to limited infrastructure technologies, including handsets and wireless broadband. With the emergence of higher speed networks, intelligent (OS based) smartphones, and the iPhone in particular, consumers are using their mobile devices in a fundamentally different way – as extensions to their PCs. In parallel with this, operators have adapted their strategies to take advantage of the new data-usage revolution and are collaborating with device manufacturers, Mobile Payments and Billing developers and mobile technology companies to create engaging services for consumers. These factors have fostered a mobile internet installed base of over 100m in 2009 and it is our belief that finally the mobile infrastructure and ecosystem are in place for the industry to enter a new level of monetisation with significant M&A activity as a consequence. Mobile Entertainment Several Categories of Acquirers Emerging The industry is undergoing a process of vertical integration, with many network operators and device manufacturers looking to expand their portfolio of services towards an integrated mobile multimedia offering. Media and advertising companies are also starting to make their bets on the mobile sector as they seek new growth areas to offset declining core revenue streams. Internet giants have also entered the fray with renewed interest from eBay, Amazon and Google. The highly fragmented nature of the mobile industry has pushed the larger players in their sub sectors, such as Admob, Zed and Boku to acquire smaller companies to extend their services portfolio and diversify into new geographies. Manish Madhvani [email protected] Current Bite Size Transactions to Grow London: +44 (0) 207 101 7567 Acquisitions have been relatively small in size, reflecting the macroeconomic Sasha Afanasieva environment, as well as the relatively early stages of monetisation in the sector. [email protected] It is our belief that over the next two years this will migrate to larger, fully fledged London: +44 (0) 207 101 7569 acquisitions. We note five recent transactions in excess of $50m as an indicator of changing buyer behaviour. Important disclosures appear at the back of this report. GP Bullhound Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom MOBILE INDUSTRY: LATEST TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES RECENT TRENDS 2009 – Turning Point for Mobile M&A? We see 2009 as an inflection point in M&A activity in the mobile sector: transaction value has grown by 77% to $603m in 2009YTD from $340m in the same period in 2008, with volume rising from 59 transactions to 631. Exhibit 1 - M&A Activity in Mobile Media 2,500 2,320 120 98 1,899 2,000 100 97 7979 80 1,500 5959 63 60 947 1,000 38 647 603 40 500 340 20 Transaction Number Transaction Value ($m) Value Transaction - 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan - Sep Jan - Sep 2008 2009 Transaction Value Transaction Number Source: Capital IQ / Note: transaction number includes deals with undisclosed valuation Acquirers Laying Foundations for Mobile Strategy with Bite Size Acquisitions The majority of recent deals (with announced deal values) have been below $15m as we see strategic players being keen to lay the foundations for their mobile strategy. We see this as the first phase in an active mobile M&A market. It is noticeable that corporates with more advanced mobile strategies have recently completed 5 transactions which were valued at over $50m in 2009. It is our belief that as global markets and confidence continue to recover we will witness further large scale acquisitions announced with a number of reported deals in progress. Exhibit 2 – Distribution of Deals in 2009 by Value 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 22 2 11 1 0 0 $0m - $2.5m - $5m - $10m - $15m - $20m - $50m - $100m - $2.5m $5m $10m $15m $20m $50m $100m $200m Source: Capital IQ / Note: does not include deals with undisclosed valuation 1 Capital IQ, GP Bullhound 2 GP Bullhound Ltd. October 2009 MOBILE INDUSTRY: LATEST TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES Key Drivers Behind M&A Growth In the following section, we examine the key reasons why, after a number of false starts, the mobile sector is entering the next stage in its evolution and seeing substantial renewed interest in M&A. 3G Infrastructure Firmly Embedded As Exhibit 3 shows, 3G technology has become widespread over the last few years: according to GSMA, there are 300 HSPA networks in 127 countries and about 1,500 HSPA devices, and there will be 200m HSPA connections in the first quarter of 2010. Exhibit 3 – 3G Wireless Technology Availability Globally Source: GSM Association (GSMA) Changing Functions of the Phone through the Popularity of Smartphones, in Particular the iPhone The smartphone market is estimated to grow at 27% annually, with the iPhone commanding 13.7% of global market share at the end of H1 20092. Exhibit 4 – Smartphone Shipments 700 619.2 600 500 446.9 400 294.9 300 Units (m) 190.8 200 144.6 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Gartner Research 2 Bernstein Research 3 GP Bullhound Ltd. October 2009 MOBILE INDUSTRY: LATEST TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES The emergence of improved smartphone technology has dramatically changed the way consumers interact with their mobile phones, notably through: Larger screens – enabling use of mobiles for functions such as m- commerce, video and image viewing, playing games, and other multimedia applications; Mobile Internet and extended memory capacity on the handset – access to content and applications other than those provided by handset manufacturers and network operators has had a dramatic impact on the quality and take up of such content; Increasing popularity and understanding of the smartphone through the widespread use of the iPhone ¾ 81% of iPhone users browse daily news and information vs. 11% of other mobile users3; Convergence with other appliances such as TV and the PC - through the mobile Internet and platforms such as the App Store and iTunes, smartphones have taken an even more prominent role in general media consumption. Continued Growth in Mobile Internet Subscribers As Exhibit 5 shows, the number of mobile Internet subscribers is expected to rise to 278m by 2013, driven by increasing availability of 3G technology and smartphones globally. The installed base of over 100m in 2009 creates sufficient eyeballs and confidence for strategic acquirers to launch a number of viable commercial models. Exhibit 5 – Mobile Internet Subscribers 300 277.7 250 207.2 200 155.8 150 123.1 101.8 100 82.8 60.2 39.4 Mobile internet subscribers (m) 50 21.9 12 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 3 ComScore 4 GP Bullhound Ltd. October 2009 MOBILE INDUSTRY: LATEST TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES Rising Mobile Data Usage Global data bandwidth usage has increased by approximately 30% in Q2 2009. The APAC region achieved growth of 36%, EMEA achieved growth of 28% and the Americas had growth of 25%4. Exhibit 6 shows a breakdown of the global growth by main application. Exhibit 6 – Quarterly Growth of Mobile Data in Q2 2009, Broken Down by Main Application 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HTTP HTTP HTTP P2P Other Streaming Download Browsing Application Source: Allot Communications, Global Mobile Broadband Traffic Report (July 2009) Rapidly Evolving Mobile Landscape Non-traditional entrants in the market, such as Apple with iPhone and Google with Android, have emphasized the importance of integrating multimedia services with the mobile phone handset. If before the mobile was seen as a voice / SMS communication device, as a result of the iPhone, it is now seen as an extension of the user’s PC. This rapidly emerging competitive landscape has meant that incumbent players in the mobile sector such as Nokia and Vodafone have had to step up their M&A activity to be able to provide a more integrated mobile offering with multiple robust revenue streams. Changing Views of Operators The changing dynamics of the mobile industry have driven operators to adapt their strategies: Previously operators were able to select the devices they provided on their networks and heavily promote their brands. With the tremendous popularity of the iPhone, operators often deal with the customers only when they are paying the bill and have limited branding; The introduction of fixed rate data packages has had a dramatic impact on consumer behaviour. Vodafone’s data service segment has been the fastest growing in the group with revenue rising 43.7% in 2009 to £3bn; 4 Allot Communications, Global Mobile Broadband Traffic Report (July 2009) 5 GP Bullhound Ltd. October 2009 MOBILE INDUSTRY: LATEST TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES Due to increasing competition in the sector, operators place greater importance on non-price differentiation and focus on providing more advanced media packages for the mobile and PC, such as Vodafone 360, a mobile platform, similar to iTunes, that synchronises the user’s phone, social networks and PC and encompasses an address book, applications, games and music.
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