Tommy Norment, in That, Dick Saslaw

AUGUST 24, 2015, 8:44 AM CNU debate - In this corner: Tommy Norment, In that, Dick Saslaw.

By Dave Ress

tate Senate Majority Leader Sen. Tommy Norment, R.-James City County, faces off against Minority Leader Dick S Saslaw, D.-Fairfax, at Christopher Newport University on Monday Oct. 5, to debate why voters should back their parties' candidates in the November election.

While all 140 seats in the General Assembly are up for election in November, the GOP is likely to retain its overwhelming control of the House of Delegates.

But the state Senate is another story, says Quentin Kidd, director of CNU's Wason Center for Public Policy, which is hosting the debate.

"The real contest is over control of the Senate,” Kidd said. “And that will largely determine what Terry McAuliffe can accomplish in his remaining two years as governor.”

The state Senate currently has 21 Republican members and 19 Democrats. If one seat switches from R to D, that would give Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, the tie-breaking vote that brings control of the body.

The Democrats had that for most of the 2014 session, and used it to push hard for Medicaid expansion, anathema to most Republicans, until the resignation of Phil Puckett and the special election victory of Ben Chafin to represent his southwest Virginia seat broke a log jam over expansion and the state budget and put paid to Gov. Terry McAuliffe's high stakes bid to cover more low income Virginians using federal dollars from Obamacare.

While nobody expects any state Senate seats in CNU's neighborhood to change hands (although, oddly enough, Norment and Democrat John Miller each face major party opponents in their districts) about a half dozen seats of the 40 seats in the state Senate could be up for grabs.

The highest profile has probably been the suburban Richmond district long represented by retiring state Sen. John Watkins, R-Powhatan. That district has trended Democratic in recent statewide and national elections, while Watkins is that rare bird -- a Richmond politico who will buck his leaders on big issues. In his case, those have included Medicaid expansion and the current squabble over the next state Supreme Court Justice.

Up in Prince William County, Republicans are feeling pretty confident that Manassas mayor Hal Parrish, son of the incredibly popular former House member Harry Parrish, will fend off Democratic efforts to hold on to the seat long held by retiring state Sen. Chuck Colgan.

Out in Roanoke, Republicans have high hopes of winning a three-way race between Democratic state Sen. John Edwards, GOP challenger Nancy Dye, and Roanoke Commonwealth's Attorney Don Caldwell.

Democrats have similar hopes up in Loudoun County, where candidate Jill McCabe is challenging Republican state Sen. Dick Black, one of the most conservative legislators in Richmond. In Norfolk and the Eastern Shore, Democratic state Sen. Lynwood Lewis, who won his seat in a 2014 special election with just a handful of votes, will be working hard for re-election.

A panel of opinion writers from around the state will pose questions in the 75-minute debate, which will be held at the Ferguson Center Music and Theatre Hall. Admission is free, but a ticket is required. Tickets may be reserved at: rsvp.cnu.edu.