Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.)

ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 120 MARCH 2010

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 2

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 120 MARCH 2010 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]

CONTENTS Page Regional Reports 3 ANZ Climate conference 4 MoRST Update 5—8 Summer 2010 9-16 Summer – in the media 17-45

Your Committee President Kim Dirks [email protected] Immediate Past President Mike Revell Auckland VP Jennifer Salmond [email protected] Wellington VP James Renwick [email protected] Christchurch VP Vacant Dunedin VP vacant Secretary Sam Dean [email protected] Treasurer Cliff Revell [email protected] Circulation Manager Sylvia Nichols [email protected] Journal Editor Brian Giles [email protected] Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt [email protected] Wed Editor Peter Knudsen [email protected] Hydrological Society Liaison Charles Pearson [email protected] General Committee Jim Salinger [email protected] Stacey Dravitzki (to be confirmed) [email protected] Katrina Richards [email protected] Sally Garrett [email protected] Gareth Renowden [email protected] Simon Kjellberg Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Society.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 3

RECENT WELLINGTON SEMINARS (available to met soc members)

Communicating Global Climate Change using Simple Indices by Frank Drost School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010 Australia [email protected], [email protected] Given Friday 26 February 2010 at NIWA Greta Point The most common indicator of global scale climate change is the global mean surface air temperature, of which graphs are shown in almost every report and talk on climate change and its causes. There are several additional indices of global scale temperature variations that are useful for distinguishing natural internal climate variations from anthropogenic climate change (Karoly and Braganza 2001, Braganza et al. 2003). These include the contrast between the average temperatures over land and over oceans, the meridional temperature gradient, and the magnitude of the annual cycle of average temperatures over land. They are nearly independent of the global mean temperature for natural internal climate variations at decadal time scales and represent different aspects of the climate system, yet they show common re- sponses to anthropogenic climate change (Braganza et al, 2004). In this presentation, Frank discussed some of the results of those previous studies followed by an extended analysis that includes the last ten years of observational data and the CMIP3 climate model simulations analysed for the IPCC AR4. Twentieth Century SAM Variability from reconstructions, observations and model simulations by Dr Julie Jones, University of Sheffield, UK http://www.shef.ac.uk/geography/staff/jones_julie/index.html Given Thursday 18 March 2010 at NIWA Greta Point Seasonal reconstructions of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) index back to 1865 have been derived, using principal component regression with station sea level pressure (SLP) data as predictors. The reconstructed SAM indices were used to evaluate the SAM in simulations from 17 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models from 1865-2005. The models capture the recent (1957-2005) positive SAM trends in austral summer, which reconstructions indicate is the strongest trend during the last 150 years; ozone depletion is the dominant mechanism driving these trends.

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From committee member Gareth Renowden: A little something for the weekend: a wonderful picture of wind farm wakes — clouds forming in the wakes behind the front row of the Horns Rev wind farm (http://www.hornsrev.dk/index.en.html), 14km off the coast of Denmark. Pic- ture comes from http://ict-aeolus.eu/index.html .

Report of the Crown Research Institute Taskforce: From MoRST UPDATE 2010

Government is considering these recommendations. Any actions taken as a result will be part of a wide range of changes to the science system. The aim is to improve how the system delivers for New Zealand, particularly in increasing business innovation through R&D, a key part of the Government’s pro- gramme to lift the nation’s economic performance. A science system that is simpler, less bureaucratic and more responsive to the needs of business will be a better driver of innovation and a better place for scientists to do quality research.

Other pieces of the package of changes to the science system have been introduced or are coming together: · Last December new priorities for research, science and technology funding were ap- proved. These new investment priorities include research outcomes and other areas, such as the Marsden Fund and research infrastructure. These priorities reflect a refocusing of the Government’s goals for research, science and technology. They also place more emphasis on the outcomes of research, rather than the programmes used to fund it, and so more clearly link with the Government’s goals. · MoRST, the Foundation, the Health Research Council and the Royal Society are simplify- ing the system , to reduce costs for applying for and using Government funding. · We have been considering ways to directly encourage and support businesses to do R&D, and to improve transfer of technologies and ideas from science institutions to businesses. De- tails of this package of measures are likely to be announced in the Budget in May. · As part of the commitment to strengthen the capability of the science system a Research Infrastructure Strategy is being developed. This will assist Government to support the large, national infrastructure vital to enabling science to meet the Government's goals. It will also

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 6 allow Government to align its investment in research infrastructure with economic outcomes and open doors to better international science collaborations for New Zealand research teams. · Science is playing an increasingly important role in international relations. To increase the impact of New Zealand science in the international arena, MoRST has developed a strategy that is aligned with the Government’s new funding priorities and identifies the key nations New Zealand wants to establish and strengthen partnerships with. We have merged various funding schemes into a new fund directed by our international strategy: the International Re- lationship Fund. This will improve the ability of scientists to establish new relationships with overseas science partners.

These changes will make New Zealand a more attractive place for entrepreneurial businesses to start and grow firms, and for researchers to do ground-breaking work. Dr. Helen Anderson, Chief Executive of MoRST, from MoRST UPDATE March 2010

Report of the Crown Research Institute Taskforce : How to enhance the value of New Zealand’s investment in Crown Research Institutes http://www.morst.govt.nz/Documents/work/cri-taskforce/Report-of-the-Crown-Research-Institute-Taskforce.pdf Executive Summary CRIs play a pivotal role in New Zealand’s innovation system Crown Research Institutes (CRIs) matter to New Zealand. Their importance is increasing as science plays an ever more critical role in the nation’s economic development. Research and the other services provided by CRIs help address New Zealand’s most pressing issues: achiev- ing economic growth by making the tradable sector more productive; improving the sustainable use of natural resources; and managing exposure to risks that could otherwise destabi- lise society, the environment and the economy. Research and development generates profound and enduring benefits for New Zealand society. Ongoing government investment is essential. The Government established CRIs to improve the economic, environmental and social wellbeing of New Zealand, and they are delivering substantial benefits. However, the evidence received and our deliberations have led us to conclude that CRIs can and should contribute much more. CRIs have the potential to be powerful engines of economic growth, forging national and international collaborations at the cutting edge of research and science. CRIs already attract international attention because of their strong links to business, government and other science organisations. We believe, however, that through greater collaboration CRIs can perform much better. Such collaborations will, the Taskforce believes, become more important in delivering benefits to New Zealand. What needs to change so that CRIs contribute more to New Zealand? We do not believe changing the number of CRIs, their ownership status, or their employment arrangements will significantly improve their contribution to New Zealand. The question is not how many CRIs New Zealand should have, but what structures will best provide research services that address the problems and opportunities New Zealand faces. It is our opinion that the main factors impeding CRI performance relate to their funding, ownership and governance arrangements, as follows: Currently, it is not clear if a CRI’s objective is to create value for itself, as a company, or to generate value for New Zealand. Current ownership arrangements seem to place undue emphasis on research and development that produces outputs that individual CRIs can capture in their statements of revenue and balance sheets, rather than on research that contributes to the wellbeing and prosperity of New Zealand. This can reduce quite significantly the overall impact of government investment in CRIs. There are multiple lines of accountability that dilute the CRIs’ sense of purpose and direction.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 7 Each CRI is accountable to the shareholding Ministers, directly and through the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (the Foundation), the Crown Ownership Monitoring Unit in Treasury (COMU), and the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST). Each agency has its own perspective and requirements. CRIs are heavily dependent on competitive contracts, which are often short-term relative to the time frame in which science produces results. This makes it difficult for CRIs to operate strategically. We believe that existing funding and governance arrangements for CRIs inhibit collaboration, position natural partners such as universities and firms as competitors, and interfere with CRIs’ adoption of best-practice research management. Governance and institutional arrangements can be considerably simplified so that CRIs have a stronger sense of purpose and direction. Key Actions The Taskforce believes that the Government must be more explicit about what it wants each CRI to achieve and must fund the CRIs accordingly, so that they can deliver more for the national benefit. CRIs can do this if the Government encourages them to plan and operate for the long term, cooperate with complementary components of the New Zealand, as well as the global, research and innovation system, and use diverse and creative approaches to transfer knowledge to those in New Zealand best able to use it. This means having talented people in top leadership and management positions, giving them the authority they need to take strategic decisions and then holding them to account for the performance of their CRI. The measure of a CRI’s success should be the positive impact it has on New Zealand – be that economic, social or environmental – not the commercial return a CRI has been able to achieve. To set this up, we propose the specific set of actions listed in the recommendations, summa- rised as follows: CRIs were set up to address enduring challenges and opportunities that New Zealand faces. CRIs are still needed to do this, but the Government needs to clarify in a Statement of Core Purpose the exact role each CRI should play in delivering benefits to New Zealand. The State- ment of Core Purpose should recognise the distinctive role of each CRI relative to other research organisations, including universities. The Government should fund CRIs to achieve their core purpose. A significant proportion of CRI funding (much greater than at present) should be allocated directly, on a long-term basis, to support the delivery of the core purpose activities of each CRI. The current level of contestable and ‘at risk’ funding renders CRIs vulnerable as businesses, creates uncertainty and un- dermines their ability to act strategically. CRIs face unnecessary compliance from an excessive number of contracts. Core purpose funding should be consolidated into a single contract, as soon as practicable. The core purpose funding should be negotiated against a rolling five year research strategy that is developed in consultation with relevant stakeholders and agreed with the Government through the CRI’s Statement of Corporate Intent. A greater degree of certainty will enable CRIs to retain and develop capability, manage risk, and operate within a longer time frame to deliver excellent and relevant research. Contestable, open access funding should remain an important element – albeit on a smaller scale – of Vote Research, Science and Technology (RS&T) funding. This is vital to generate competing ideas and new entrants. However, we believe the system should put less emphasis on contestable processes as a way to drive better performance. Instead, more emphasis needs to be placed on holding organisations accountable to deliver benefits as defined in their State- ment of Core Purpose, rather than allocating funding against promises of activity. Reducing the proportion of contestable funding is consistent with the findings of the 2007 OECD review of our innovation system, which found it to be too competitive and fragmented. A portion of Vote RS&T funding should be set aside for major national collaborative challenges, akin to the funding available to the Centres of Research Excellence. This would provide incentives for collaboration in new multi-disciplinary areas of research.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 8 In return for moving to reduce the proportion of contestable funding, CRIs need to be more accountable for delivering value to New Zealand. There is a need for the Government to improve the upfront surety of funding and to balance this with the following measures to improve performance: Strengthen board accountability, by having public Annual General Meetings and annually monitoring and evaluating performance against the core purpose and Statement of Corporate Intent Measure CRIs against more balanced and comprehensive performance indicators. Primary responsibility for monitoring all aspects of CRI performance should rest with one entity. Per- formance indicators should explicitly include: technology transfer as a core and measurable responsibility for all CRIs, so that the benefit of their ideas contributes to the wealth and well–being of New Zealand and not just the CRIs’ balance sheets measures that ensure CRIs remain financially viable and accountable for all government funding. There is a current perception, not reflected in practice, that CRIs are always expected to meet a nine percent return on equity target tailoring the approach to setting financial targets to reflect a need to be financially viable, as opposed to financially profitable expectations and targets around collaboration with international and national components of the research and innovation system. Measures of scientific excellence, to be assured through the greater use of independent expert science panels. Making a percentage of CRI core funding ‘at risk’, subject to performance against agreed mile- stones, if boards do not manage appropriately. To address the currently diffuse governance, investment and monitoring arrangements facing CRIs, the Government should combine its long-term CRI investment, ownership and policy re- sponsibilities into one entity. The entity should also be responsible for managing contestable funds and funding infrastructure. CRIs are just one part of the research and science system, alongside private research organisations and universities. The Taskforce concluded that for some issues a wider view of the system is needed. We recommend a national research infrastructure strategy to rationalise and ensure open access to major research infrastructure, where it is clear that national economies of scale apply. In making its recommendations, the Taskforce intends to make better use of the funds available through Vote RS&T and not to advantage and/or disadvantage any particular parties. An underlying theme of our recommendations is to strengthen and improve the effectiveness of the linkages between CRIs and all their stakeholders. These linkages are critical for deriving economic and other benefits from CRI research. Making these changes will give CRI boards greater clarity and control over their funding. The changes will give them a stronger mandate to set strategic priorities and give them the authority to respond flexibly and quickly to the complex environments they operate in. We believe our recommendations will give CRIs greater certainty of purpose and provide the right settings for them to deliver greater benefit to New Zealand from the Government’s investment in RS&T. Implementing the recommendations will provide enhanced confidence and attractiveness for increased operational and equity funding from government. The Taskforce notes that many of the recommendations we have reached are consistent with the views held by the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Advisor >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 9 Summer 2009-10 Cold start, hot finish! Rainfall: Very wet in Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Gis- borne, Southland and the West Coast. Extremely dry in Northland, below normal rainfall in Auckland and east of the South Island. Temperature: Cold start, hot finish – extreme temperatures along the way. Soil moisture: Severe soil moisture deficits continued all summer in Northland, and developed by late summer in parts of Auckland, Marlborough, Canterbury and Otago. Sunshine: Extremely sunny for the southern South Island and Northland. Very cloudy from Taranaki to Wellington. It was a topsy-turvy summer. It started out extremely cold, with record cold temperatures in early December, but finished hot, with heat waves and above average temperatures in Febru- ary. Overall, the New Zealand national average temperature for summer was near normal (16.6°C, 0.1°C below the long-term seasonal average). Summer temperatures were above average (between 0.5°C and 1.2°C above average) for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, and the Bay of Plenty, as well as in inland and western areas of the South Island. Below average temperatures (between 1.2°C and 0.5°C below average) were observed about coastal Otago. Else- where, summer temperatures were close to normal. Summer rainfalls were well above normal in Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Gisborne, and parts of Southland and the West Coast. In contrast, it continued extremely dry in Northland. Below normal rainfall also occurred in Auckland and the east of the South Island. Near normal summer rainfall was observed elsewhere. The most significant rainfall event of summer occurred on January 31st, affecting the eastern and central North Island, as well as Waikato and Coro- mandel. A moist, easterly air stream brought heavy rain and thunderstorms to these areas, causing flooding, slips, and road closures. Particularly hard hit were Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Summer sunshine totals were well above normal (more than 125 percent of normal) at either end of the country, with Kaitaia and Balclutha both experiencing their sunniest summer on record. In contrast, it was very cloudy (between 75 and 90 percent of normal sunshine hours) from Taranaki to Wellington. Overall, it was an “El Niño” summer. Summer 2009/10 was characterised by more ‘highs’ in the Tasman Sea and over northern New Zealand, resulting in stronger than normal southwest winds over the country. This climate pattern resulted in well below average summer rainfall, and associated drought conditions, in Northland. Severe soil moisture deficits also developed by the end of summer in parts of Auckland, Marlborough, Canterbury and Otago, following a very dry February. Major Highlights The highest summer temperature was 35.6°C recorded at Cheviot on February 22nd (2nd highest summer temperature at this site). The lowest summer temperature of -3.5°C was recorded at Lumsden on December 3rd (a new summer record at this site). The highest 1-day summer rainfall was 203 mm recorded at Franz Josef on 6 January (not a record). The peak wind gust was 182 km/hr recorded at Cape Turnagain on 12 December (not a record). Of the six main centres this summer, Tauranga was the warmest and sunniest, Dunedin the coolest, Hamilton the wettest, and Christchurch the driest. For further information, please contact: Ms Georgina Griffiths –Climate scientist, [email protected] Dr Andrew Tait – Climate Scientist, [email protected] Michele Hollis – NIWA Communications Manager [email protected] Acknowledgement of NIWA as the source is required.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 10 NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ - SUMMER 2009/2010 By Ben Tichborne Summer 2009-2010 was a rather changeable season up to the end of January, with a number of active weather systems crossing the country. Many people in southern and eastern areas wondered when summer was coming due to cooler than normal temperatures as well as the changeable weather. February, however, was more settled and warmer.

DECEMBER 1st - A period of heavy rain about central NZ. Very humid in north of North Island. 2nd - Cloud cover in a damp onshore flow suppresses maximum temperatures in east of South Island, with record low maximums at Le Bons Bay (9C) and Oamaru. (10C) Clearer skies inland result in a chilly morning, eg 0C minimum in Woodbury. 3rd - Heavy downpours in thunderstorms in north of North Island. (73mm recorded in Wark- worth) Funnel cloud near Waiuku. Cool southerly flow keeps maximums in low teens in eastern areas and southern North Island, with records broken at Takapau and Castlepoint (10C), Waipawa (11C) and Hawera. (13C). (but up to low 20s on South Island West Coast) A chilly start to the day in the far south in inland South Island, eg a record -3C minimum in Lumsden. 4th - More thunderstorms in North Island from Taranaki to Coromandel and northwards, with localised flooding from downpours. 70mm recorded in Whangaparaoa, and 122mm in Whi- tianga. Chilly 12C maximum in Taupo and 13C in Rotorua, under cloud cover, while other northern areas only reach 15-16C maximums. Another unseasonably cold start to the day in many southern areas, with Dunedin recording a December record low 0C minimum. 6th - Some afternoon thunderstorms in Otago and Canterbury, including Christchurch. 8th - 31C maximum in Blenheim in a warm northwesterly flow. 9th - 30C maximum in Gisborne. Heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps, eg 197mm at Mt Cook. 10th - Very warm day in many northern areas, eg 28C in Whitianga, and 27C in Taupo. 11th - Another very warm in some northern places, eg 29C maximum in Kerikeri. Wet weather results in a very large slip blocking SH3 north of New Plymouth. 12th - Northwesterly gales in exposed eastern areas of South Island, with some damage in North Canterbury and Kaikoura. The gales later spreading to southeastern North Island, with 182 km/hr gust recorded at Cape Turnagain. Unusually warm overnight in many North Island places, especially in the east. (eg record high 21C minimums in Gisborne and Napier) 13th - Only 11C maximum at Milford Sound. Scattered thunderstorms about Taranaki (reports of a tornado or severe wind squall in Rahotu) and the west and south of the South Is- land. 14th - Band of thunderstorms and heavy hail on Canterbury Plains, the hail causing thousands of dollars of damage to crops. A tornado is reported from near Springfield. Cold southwesterly change sweeps over South Island. (only 11C maximum in Gore) 15th - Scattered thunderstorms and hail in many parts of North Island, as colder southerly spreads over the island, with fresh snow on central m mountains. Chilly overnight minimums in many South Island areas, eg 2C in Oamaru and 4C at Le Bons Bay. 16th - Record low December 5C minimum in Warkworth, and 8C in Kerikeri, as chilly southerly flow affects North Island. 18th - Northwesterly gales in some eastern areas of South Island and central NZ, with gusts up to 89 km/hr at Tara Hills, 106 km/hr at Lauder, and 100 km/hr reported on Rimutaka Hill Road. Heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps. 19th - Another period of heavy rain on the South Island West Coast, and later about the Tara- ruas. Warm 29C maximums in Kawerau and Whakatane. 20th - Cold southerly sweeps over South Island, with some hail and thunder in the east and fresh snow on the ranges. 21st - Fresh snow on North Island mountains (down to 1200m on Tararuas) due to cold southerly over the island.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 11 22nd - Unseasonably cold dawn in east of North Island due to anticyclonic conditions in wake of cold southerlies, with frosts inland. Record low December minimum of 1C in Martinbor- ough. Also 1C in Waipawa, and 4C minimum in Napier, and 25th - Warm Christmas day in many eastern areas, eg 32C maximum at Dunedin Airport and 31C in Kaikoura. 26th - Heavy rain on South Island West Coast. Very warm day in the north. (record 28C maximum in Kaikohe) 27th - Heavy rain clearing from South Island West Coast. Blenheim records its highest Decem- ber minimum overnight, with 20C. 28th - Warmest December night on record at Arthurs Pass, with a 16C minimum. 29th - Heavy rain about central NZ. Heaviest falls about Tararuas, resulting in flooding of adja- cent rivers. (woman drowned while horse riding across River) 30th - Cold southerly change over South Island, with scattered thunder and hail in eastern areas and snow on the ranges. Kaikoura rises to 24C maximum before the change, but has dropped to 8C by 4pm. Gore shivers on 6C at 1pm. Gales lash some areas with the change, with 93 km/hr recorded at Farewell Spit and 109 km/hr in Blenheim. 31st - Light frosts in some sheltered areas of South Island in wake of cold southerly, eg 1C minimums in Ashburton and Timaru.

JANUARY 1st Very warm start to 2010 in many eastern areas of South Island. 34C maximums in Timaru (after 6C minimum) and Blenheim; 33C maximums in Oamaru and Ashburton. Northwesterly gales developing in lower South Island, with traffic on SH8 between Lakes Pukaki and Tekapo disrupted, and power cut to Wanaka thanks to a tree brought down by the winds. A gust of 165 km/hr is recorded at Southwest Cape, Stewart Island, and gusts reach 115km/hr in Gore. Thunderstorms developing in Fiordland and Westland later in the day. 2nd - More high temperatures in Canterbury, eg 33C maximum at Christchurch Airport and 32C in Ashburton. However, these temperatures are reached in the morning, before a cooler southerly arrives from later in morning. 3rd - Heavy rain on South Island West Coast, spreading to ranges of central NZ by evening. SH6 closed for more than six hours due to flooding south of Fox Glacier. Warm 33C maximum in Hastings, as northwesterly flow affects North Island. The winds in this flow reaching gale in exposed eastern and southern areas. (145 km/hr gust recorded at Mt Kaukau) New Year re- gatta in Napier disrupted by the winds. 4th - A few scattered thunderstorms in east of South Island, and cool southerly spreads north behind a cold front. Record low January maximum of 13C in Greymouth under cloud cover in a southwesterly flow. 5th - Only 11C maximum at Milford Sound, under cloud cover. 6th - Heavy rain in Westland and Fiordland, eg 202mm recorded at Franz Joseph. 7th - Heavy rain continues on South Island West Coast; flooding closing SH6 in two places (near Ross and between Haast and Fox Glacier). Cold southwesterly spreads over lower South Island, with some hail and thunder. One storm brings heavy hail blanketing to parts of Inver- cargill about 2pm, with temperature quickly dropping from 15C to 8C. 8mm is recorded in 10 minutes, with flooding in the Invercargill CBD affecting several buildings. Lightning kills a horse on the outskirts of the city and causes power cuts in the area. 8th - Cold southerlies change spreads over remainder South Island, with snow on the mountains. Only 9C maximum at Arthurs Pass; 11C in Balclutha and Queenstown. 10th - A period of heavy rain on South Island West Coast. A few afternoon thunderstorms in inland South Canterbury, as cold southerlies spread over South Island in afternoon. More snow on the ranges. 11th - Cold south to southwest flow continues over South Island, thanks to deep low to the southeast. Only 12C maximum at Tiwai Point, Southland, and 10C at Puysegur Point (a Janu- ary record low maximum).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 12 12th - Southerly gales about some exposed eastern coasts and Cook Strait, easing later. Heavy rain develops in central and southeastern North Island. Desert Road closed by surface flooding at night. (reopened next morning) 16th - Heavy rain continues about Wellington and Wairarapa, plus southerly gales about Cook Strait. Some flooding and slips about southeast Wairarapa coast. Unusually cold daytime temperatures, eg only 12C maximums in Masterton and Upper Hutt, and 13C at Wellington Air- port. Napier's 16C maximum in a record January low. 18th - Heavy morning fog about Wellington, disrupting Airport operations. 20th-23rd January/25th January-1st February - Widespread thunderstorms in North Island, followed by heavy rain towards end of second period. (see details below)

FEBRUARY 1st - Unusually warm day on South Island West Coast (under a light easterly flow continuing from previous day - see details in report below), with record February maximums of 28C in Westport, Greymouth, and Milford Sound. 2nd - Very warm in inland South Island, eg 32C maximum in Alexandra, 32C in Reefton, and 31C in Wanaka. Warm airmass (29C maximum in New Plymouth) plus weak frontal system results in some afternoon thunderstorms about Taranaki and central North Island. 3rd - Another very warm day in inland South Island, with a 34C maximum in Alexandra, 33C in Cromwell, and 30C in Queenstown. Even Arthurs Pass basks with a warm 28C maximum. 4th-6th - Warm spell continues in inland South Island, with a 33C maximum in Wanaka (4th), 34C in Cromwell (5th), and 29C in Lumsden. (6th) 8th - Some afternoon thunderstorms in central and northern North Island. Chilly start to the day in south of South Island with light frosts in places. Record February minimum of 1C in Bal- clutha. 9th - Warm 28C maximum in Takaka. 13th - 31C maximums in Napier and Kaikoura. Heavy rain in northwest of South Island. North- westerly gales in some eastern parts of South Island and Central NZ. 111 km/hr gust recorded at Paraparaumu. 14th - Very warm in the far north, including a February record maximum of 30C in Kerikeri. Heavy rain on South Island West Coast. High river levels force change in route for Coast to Coast race for first time in its 28 years. 15th - Westerly gales for a time in parts of Hawkes Bay (178 km/hr gust at Waipawa), before a southerly change. 16th - Unseasonably cold overnight in lower South Island with frosts in some places. Dunedin records record February minimum of only 1C. 18th - Unusually warm and humid overnight in north of North Island. Record February high 20C minimum in Whangaparoa. 19th - Chilly (and frosty in places) overnight in lower South Island in wake a cool southwesterly. 2C minimum in Queenstown, and 0C in Omarama. 22nd - Very warm in many eastern areas of South Island, eg 35C maximum in Cheviot and 32C at Dunedin Airport. 23rd - Warm weather continues in east of South Island, with 32C maximums at Pukaki and Ashburton. 28th - Heavy rain in Fiordland (188mm recorded at Secretary Island), spreading later into western Southland.

MAJOR EVENTS 20th-23rd January/25th January-1st February - Widespread thunderstorms in North Island, followed by heavy rain towards end of second period.

During this period, the North Island was unsettled with frequent thunderstorms. Towards the end of the period, heavy rain brought disruption to Gisborne and Hawkes Bay.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 13

On the 20th, a trough of low pressure in the eastern Tasman Sea moved towards NZ. However, its progress was slowed by ridging to the southeast of the country, so it moved more quickly onto the North Island during the next day, becoming more complex as it did so. This system brought unstable air with it, resulting in thunderstorms in many areas. Some particularly heavy downpours drenched Central Otago and inland Southland, with 53mm recorded in Lumsden and 48mm in Cromwell.

During the 22nd, a depression became centred over the Gisborne area, with an unstable southerly flow on its western flank. Thunderstorms continued in many northern and central areas. A particularly heavy downpour flooded the Hastings suburb of Flaxmere, while another blocked a section of SH50 in central Hawkes Bay. The area recorded some 2000 lightning strikes overnight 22nd/23rd. A funnel cloud was reported in the Manawatu on the 22nd.

During the 23rd, there were some further thunderstorms about the eastern North Island ranges from Hawkes Bay northwards (with slips and flooding on the Napier-Taupo Highway), as the low slowly moved away. The next day, a weak frontal system crossed the South Island, and broke up over the North Island on the 25th, followed by high pressure. From then until the 30th, a weak east to northeast airflow affected the North Island, on the western side of an anticyclone centred to the east.

As the airflow was warm (maximums reached the high twenties) and unstable, thunderstorms plagued many parts of the North Island during this period. A downpour flooded several homes in Cambridge on the 27th, also closing SH1 for a time. Another thunderstorm flooded Fairy Springs Road, west of Rotorua on the same day. There was also some sea fog about Wel- lington overnight 26th/27th and on the morning of the 29th, as the surface flow about Cook Strait tended more southeasterly for a time. Wellington Airport was closed by the fog for a time during the second occasion.

On the 30th, a low developed over the seas to the northeast of the North Island, while a weak trough moved crossed the South Island. These two systems combined on the 31st as they both moved onto the North Island, with an active trough and stronger easterly flow over the island. As the system still contained warm and unstable air (Whangaparoa recorded a January record 28C maximum on the 30th), this resulted in heavy falls of rain in several northern and eastern areas of the North Island, with thunderstorms bringing the heaviest falls. This explained why heavy falls affected some areas which are usually sheltered during an easterly flow. One day totals included 120mm in Tauranga, 85mm in Matamata (a January record), and 83mm in Wairoa.

Not surprisingly, the rain caused significant disruption to the affected areas. Highways closed by slips and flooding included SH5 between Napier and Taupo and SH2 north of Gisborne. Sev- eral homes had to be evacuated near Gisborne, due to a threat of being flooded from the Uawa River. Several parts of the Coromandel Peninsula were isolated by flooding, while flooding was also reported in parts of Auckland.

Taranaki escaped the heavy rain from this system, but was instead blasted by severe gales which caused damage in many parts of the area. Fallen trees damaged some properties and blocked several roads. Operations at New Plymouth airport were also disrupted by the gales.

While many North Island areas were being lashed by inclement weather, the West Coast of the South Island basked in an unusually warm and sunny end to the month. Temperatures reached the high twenties, with Westport's 28C being a January record.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 14 Overnight and into the 1st February, the trough and easterly flow weakened, easing the conditions over the North Island.

Mean sea level analyses for 1pm NZDT 20 January 2010 to 1amNZDT 30 January in 12 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 15

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 16

MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH - SUMMER 2009-2010

DECEMEBR 2009 This month was generally cooler and more changeable than normal. Low pressure to the north during the first five days of the month resulted in daytime temperatures well below normal and dull, often damp weather. The remainder of the month saw a mixture of fine, sunny spells, with some warm days but also some cold nights. These alternated with several southerly changes. There was thunder and hail in parts of Canterbury on the 6th, 14th, 20th, and 30th, affecting Christchurch on the first two occasions. The storms on the afternoon of the 14th were severe inland, causing significant damage to crops. Fresh snow fell on the Alps on the 15th, 20th/21st, and 30th.

JANUARY 2010 The first week was generally warm and settled in Christchurch, though there were a few thunderstorms elsewhere in Canterbury on the afternoon of the 4th. However, the rest of the month wasn't particularly summery, with a predominance of onshore southerly winds resulting in more cloudiness and much lower than normal daytime temperatures. Fresh snow was visible on the North Canterbury Mountains on the morning of the 9th, followed a cold southerly change the night before. This was followed by another spell of cold southerlies from the 10th-12th, with snow again on the Alps. The 16th was a particularly bleak day, with overcast skies suppressing the maximum to only about 12C in the city, even though the southerly air- stream was not a particularly cold one.

FEBRUARY 2010 While onshore airflows were still predominant this month, it was an improvement on Janu- ary. Temperatures were now close to normal; though daytime maximums remained some- what cooler than average, there were some warm days, especially towards the end of the month. Northwesterlies reached gale for a time on the 13th. Very little rain fell in the city, though northern suburbs had some brief heavy showers on the 25th. Ben Tichborne

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 17 WEATHER IN THE MEDIA

New Plymouth whiteout continues to hit travellers By LEIGHTON KEITH - Taranaki Daily News 03/12/2009 http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/3121473/New-Plymouth-whiteout-continues-to-hit -travellers New Plymouth Airport manager Kevin Hill has had a frustrat- ing three days with heavy fog disrupting flights in and out.

CAMERON BURNELL/ Taranaki Daily News PLAY MISTY FOR ME: German tourist Ina Kloeppner, 26, tries to make the best of the foggy conditions by taking a stroll along the Coastal Walkway. (Abridged)

Towns cut off by floods By Heather McCracken unday Dec 6, 2009 NZ Herald Opoutere in the Coromandel was isolated as the water level rose. Roads reopened last night. Photo / Allen Winter Coromandel towns were cut off by flood waters yesterday as residents across the upper North Island mopped up after a night of torrential rain. All roads were reopened by early evening. In Auckland, the downpour peaked at rush hour on Friday. Metservice ambassador Bob McDavitt said Whitianga received the most intense rainfall, with 29mm in an hour early yesterday. (Abridged)

Temperature trends from raw data http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/news/all/nz-temperature-rise-clear/temperature-trends-from-raw-data New Zealand temperature trends from a set of eleven climate stations with no significant site changes since the 1930s Dr Jim Salinger has identified from the NIWA climate archive a set of eleven stations spanning New Zealand where there have been no significant site moves for many decades. For six of these stations these records go back to at least the 1930s. The sites are Raoul Island, Tauranga Airport, Ruakura (Hamilton), Gisborne Airport, Chateau Tongariro, Palmerston North DSIR/AgResearch, Westport Airport, Molesworth, Queenstown, Invercargill Airport and Campbell Island. The data for these sites reside on the publicly-accessible national climate database operated by NIWA. Below is a table of station names, and the associated network and agent numbers that make up the record for each site. Note that while these sites have had no significant moves since the 1930s, their records may be stored in the climate database under more than one network or agent number. This is because the database archiving procedures take account of such things as a change from a manual recording system to an automated recording system. Also, some sites have records going back before 1930, but it’s the period from 1931

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 18 where all of these sites are unaffected by significant site changes. Table 1: List of stations with long-term records where no significant site changes have occurred.

Network num- Agent Station name Period Remarks bers numbers

Raoul Is J99700 6169 Apr 1940 – Oct 1998 J99701 6170 Dec 1991 – present Automation of site Tauranga Aero B76621 1612 Feb 1941 – Feb 1989 B76624 1615 Jun 1990 – present Automation of site Hamilton, Ruakura C75731 2101 Nov 1906 – Feb 1997 C75733 12616 Nov 1996 – Feb 2007 Automation of site C75734 26117 Dec 2005 – present Small site shift Gisborne Aero/ D87692 2807 Apr 1937 – Feb 1993 AWS D87695 2810 Jan 1990 – present Automation of site Mt Ruapehu, Cha- C95251 2363 Jan 1930 – Feb 1983 teau C95152 2357 Mar 1981 – Oct 2000 Small site shift C95153 18464 Oct 2000 – present Automation of site

Palmerston N E05363 3238 Jan 1928 – May 2001 E0536D 21963 Apr 2001 – present Automation of site

Westport Aero F11752 3810 Mar 1937 – Oct 1991 F11754 7342 Nov 1991 – present Automation of site Molesworth G23021 4461 Mar 1944 – Oct 1992 G23022 7427 May 1992 – Jul 1994 Automation of site

Queenstown I58061 5446 Nov 1929 – present

Invercargill Aero I68433 5814 Jun 1948 – present

Campbell Is K94400 6172 Jul 1941 – Aug 1995 K94402 6174 Dec 1991 – present Automation of site

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 19 We have analysed raw data from these sites directly, with absolutely no adjustments to the numbers from the NIWA climate database. Taking all sites together and averaging the annual mean temperatures (difference from 1961–90 mean at each site) results in Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Temperature departures from the 1961–90 normal, averaged over the eleven sites listed in Table 1. For years where not all sites are available, the average is over those that do have records. Note that not all stations have annual mean temperature values for all years in 1931–2008. It is common practice to in-fill isolated missing months, but we have deliberately not in-filled missing data here to keep this analysis as non-contentious as possible. For each year, the available station values have been averaged. In the title of the Figure, the “p-value” comes from a statistical test, and indicates the probability that the indicated trend could have arisen by chance.

If the two outlying Island records (Raoul and Campbell Islands) are left out, and the remaining nine records averaged, the result is as shown in Figure 2. In either case, the trend over the 78 year period is close to 1°C. Figure 2: Temperature departures from the 1961–90 normal, averaged over the nine sites listed in Table 1 that are located on the main islands of New Zealand (i.e., all but Raoul and Campbell Islands). For years where not all sites are available, the average is over those that do have records. This analysis was completed by: Dr Jim Salinger, Honorary Research Fellow, School of Environment, University of Auckland Dr James Renwick, Principal Scientist, Climate, NIWA Wellington

It's summer - but not as we'd like to know it By KELLY BURNS - The Dominion Post 12/12/2009 http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/national/3154176/Its-summer-but-not-as-we-d- like-to-know-it CRAIG SIMCOX/The Dominion Post SUMMER, WELLINGTON STYLE: A swimmer ponders her op- tions at Oriental Bay, on a day when a northerly was blowing and overcast cloud prevailed. It is the twelfth day of summer and Wellington is in for more of the same – showers, gales and just a glimpse of the sun. Only one day out of the past 12 has been sunny and even then the temperature only peaked at 20 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, other parts of the country are basking in real summer glory, with Gisborne and Napier reaching 29 and 28 degrees Celsius yesterday. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said since December 1 – the date meteorologists use to measure the summer months

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 20 – there had been striking differences between parts of the country. It had been a "land of two halves". "In the west it's been the wettest and in the east it's been the windiest. And Wellington's had both," he said. MetService said the culprit was a subtropical northwest flow extending from Australia across the Tasman and over New Zealand, which was "stuck" in position. Wellington's 12 Days Of Summer December 1 – wet and windy with 24mm of rain. 12 degrees celsius low, 16C high. December 2 – 2.4mm rain and southerlies. 13C low, 16C high. December 3 – 2mm of rain and southerlies. 10C low, 13C high. December 4 – dry, cloudy with southerlies. 10C low, 16C high. December 5 – sunny and dry with northwest winds. 11C low, 20C high. December 6 – very strong northerly winds and a little rain. 14C low, 18C high. December 7 – dry, cloudy and windy. 13C low, 19C high. December 8 – dry, cloudy and windy. 14C low, 19C high. December 9 – dry, cloudy and windy. 15C low, 19C high. December 10 – dry, cloudy and windy. 16C low, 18C high. December 11 – 4mm rain, wet and windy. 16C low, 19C high. December 12 – forecast to be morning showers, then clearing with northerly winds. 11C low, 20C high. Source: MetService (Abridged)

Roofs blown off houses in Kaikoura 12 December 2009 Radio NZ http:// www.radionz.co.nz/news/ stories/2009/12/12/1245d98f2d4c At least two houses have lost their roofs due to strong winds in Kaikoura. Some power lines are down and a number of trees have blown over on State Highway 1 on Saturday. Forecaster Ian Miller says up to 140 millimetres of rain and winds up to 130kmh swept over parts of the North and South islands overnight. Strong winds are expected to ease in Wairarapa, Wellington, Marlborough and central Canterbury by Saturday evening. (Abridged)

High river traps students at camp Southland Times 10 Dec 2009 Fast flow: The Shotover River flows at more than 200 cumecs. QUEENSTOWN students have been trapped at camp by a flooding river but two tennis players were airlifted out on Tuesday to train for a tournament in Auckland. A MetService forecaster said Wanaka received 30.4mm of rain in the 24 hours until 4pm yesterday while Queenstown received 26mm. On the other side of the divide, Milford Sound copped 256.6mm. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 21

Golf ball sized hail hammers mid Canterbury Monday December 14, 2009 Newstalk ZB/ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/golf-ball-sized-hail-hammers-mid-canterbury-3287172 Source: ONE News Hail storm in Temuka Mid Canterbury was lashed by thunderstorms and hit by golf ball sized hail on Monday afternoon. The large hail struck Kirwee west of Christchurch and was also reported from Woodbury. Weather analyst Richard Green says torrential rain, hail and a non-stop thunder rattled inland parts of Canterbury during the afternoon. Up to a thousand lightning strikes an hour lit up parts of the region. The Metservice says the afternoon's thunderstorms have affected communications with the Canterbury weather radar and they are currently not receiving images.

Hailstorm leaves its mark on Temuka By JEFF TOLLAN - The Timaru Herald 15/12/2009 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3160509/Hailstorm-leaves-its-mark-on-Temuka WHITEOUT: Caitlin Shimmin, of Temuka, and her pet dog Har- vey didn't mind yesterday's deluge of hail, which left many eastern areas of the town looking as if a blizzard had hit. In minutes, the main street of Temuka was white and residents were sprinting for cover as hailstones fell amid flashes of lightning and the rolling roar of thunder. Temuka man Grant Shimmin said the hailstorm went on for about 10 to 15 minutes, with ice the size of marbles. (Abridged) Hail losses put at $600,000 Radio NZ 9:53pm on 16 December 2009 Federated Farmers says losses from hail storms in parts of Canterbury on Monday are going to make it a grim Christmas for growers. Grain & Seed chair David Clark says the hail fell along a narrow path from Darfield to Temuka in south and mid-Canterbury, causing heavy damage to radish, carrot, pea and clover crops. Mr Clark estimates some farmers may have lost up to 50% of the crops. Losses are expected to amount to up to $600,000. In January this year, farmers in north Canterbury were hit by a freak mid-summer hail storm that wiped out more than $1 million worth of crops. A white Christmas for Marlborough? The Marlborough Express 16/12/2009 http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/ news/3166359/A-white-Christmas-for-Marlborough SCOTT HAMMOND/ The Marl- borough Express A scattering of snow on the Black Birch Range. Marlburians awoke to a scattering of snow on the Black Birch Range this morning as cold weather hit the region. The temperature mid morning yesterday was 16 degrees Cel- sius, but by 8pm had plummeted to 10C. It dropped further to 4C

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 22 overnight. MetService forecaster Richard Finnie said the snow and chilly weather was caused by a cold air mass coming up from the South Island. However Mr Finnie did not believe snow was unusual for this time of the year, saying there were normally one or two days before Christmas that were cold, because summer hadn't fully kicked in yet.

Hot stuff on festive day in Dunedin Otago Daily Times Sat 26 Dec 2009 http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/87468/hot-stuff-festive-day-dunedin Dunedin cousins Gabe Cook-Bonney (6) and Elijh Christian (5) make the most of the Christmas Day weather at St Clair beach yesterday. Photo by Gerard O'Brien. People living in the Dunedin area were probably too busy making the most of the good weather, or having a siesta after Christmas dinner, yesterday to be smug about Dunedin Internaional Airport recording the highest national temperature of 32degC. The lowest daily maximum in the country, registered by MetService figures, was 19degC, shared by Hokitika and Levin. (abridged)

Dry weather taking heavy toll on farmers Northern Advocate Mike Barrington 30 Dec 2009 http://www.northernadvocate.co.nz/local/news/dry-weather-taking-heavy-toll-on- farmers/3908109/ Charlie Barr, manager of a farm at Mata, walks across a barren paddock. Northland farmers are suffering under drought conditions. Farmers around the region are lamenting "there's no rain on the radar" and this was backed up yesterday by MetService forecaster Oliver Druce, of Wellington, who said: "Northland is the driest place around [New Zealand] at the moment." (Abridged)

Campers Scamper in Central Southland Times 31 Dec 2009 CAMPERS huddled in their tents and caravaners shut the doors tight as wind and rain swept through Central Otago yesterday. Doors were latched, tents were zipped and the playing cards dealt as southwesterly gusts brought down a few awnings and showers, including a flurry of hail in Cromwell, forced many indoors. Alexandra Tourist Park with five children, Maia Koen, 6, siblings Todd, 4, and Maddison Sutherland, 3, and twins Satine and Clarice Aydon, 4. MetService forecaster Allister Gorman said winds had gusted up to 60kmh throughout Central Otago (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 23 Container smashes onto car Hawkes bay Today MARK STORY | 31st December 2009 http://www.hawkesbaytoday.co.nz/local/news/lead-story-container-smashes-onto-car/3908133/ CRUNCH TIME: Rodney Biles' car was crushed by a six-tonne container that fell after being blown off its perch in strong winds yesterday. The Napier truckie said the 12-m container had been stacked six-high at the United Containers depot in Onekawa, before a wind gust about 10am blew it off the top and down on to his car. Metservice forecaster Shane Bidois said Napier central recorded wind gusts of up to 82km/h yesterday. ``Most of these were westerlies, between 10am and 11am. The top gust for Napier was 93km/h recorded at Hawke's Bay Airport just before 11am. Hundreds of motorists, north and south of Mangatera near Dannevirke, yesterday had to queue after strong winds snapped a mature pine tree, which blocked State Highway 2. The highest wind gust of 150km/h was recorded yesterday morning at Cape Turnagain. (Abridged)

New Zealand’s weather in 2009 – a review Posted in Science Alert: Experts Respond on December 24th, 2009. By Bob McDavitt, MetService Weather Ambassador 2009 globally was the fifth warmest year in the past 130 years, with 2005 the warmest and 2007 the second. That data is from the global mean surface land-ocean temperature index, available at http:// data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ . New Zealand has just had its warmest decade on record, according to NIWA at http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publications/news/all/nz-in-the-2000s- warmest-on-record .

In the New Zealand region 2009 started with our air temperatures close to the long term mean, but in May we dived into winter-like values, and then there was a very strange flat-line in Aug/Sep/Oct, finally returning to normal again towards the end of the year.

Data taken from NIWA’s monthly climate summaries (see text). Note the cold dive in May, and the weird flat line from August to October. So, May, August and October stand out as the weirdest weather months of the past year. Here

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 24 are some snippets taken from NIWA’s monthly climate summaries ( at http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publications/publications/all/cs/monthly )

May: “Well below average over most of the country; many areas experiencing lowest recorded May temperatures.” August: “The warmest August since records began 155 years ago, with record temperatures at many locations.” October: “The coldest October in 64 years, with all-time record low October temperatures in many areas. Exceptionally late snowfalls.”

The May chill was caused by many low-pressure systems lingering just east of New Zealand, held there by a blocking anticyclone in the mid South Pacific Ocean. This resulted in more southerly air flows than normal over New Zealand. October’s weather patterns were similar to May’s, with troughs held near New Zealand by anticyclones over southeast Australia and the mid South Pacific. Preceding our weird October there was a memorable dust storm that hit Sydney, coincidentally right on the equinox. On 23 Sep. This storm was followed by three snowy lows over New Zealand. The August warmth was also due to a blocking anticyclone, this time in the area east of New Zealand, feeding frequent northerly winds onto the country. For more information on how our weather in the past year was affected by blocking anticyclones refer to the posting to www.metservice.com’s blog site entitled “Reflections on winter” by MetService’s manager of Public Weather Services, Peter Kreft.

Here, for your records, are the monthly highlights for the past year: 2 Jan: Heavy rain hit Queenstown and Westland. 3 Jan: Lightning, thunder, gale force winds and large hail hit Canterbury, stopping the international cricket match against the West Indies in Christchurch and briefly closing Christchurch International Airport. 8 Jan: Tornado damaged the Bannockburn tavern. 11 Jan: Flash flooding hit the Gisborne area, golf ball sized hail hit the Kaimais, and a waterspout tossed over a yacht moored at Great Barrier. 8Feb: 38 C recorded in Culverden, the hottest day of 2009. 20-23 Feb: Severe rain from the remains of TC INNIS brought surface flooding to parts of Wel- lington, Levin, and Palmerston North, and caused raw sewage to overflow into central Wel- lington. In Tauranga, the severe rain caused the postponement of the Kapa Haka festival, the first time this had happened in 36 years. 27-28 Feb: Heavy rain and strong winds brought Dargaville Fieldays to an early close and cancelled Lionel Ritchie at the annual summer concert at Mission Estate Concert in Hastings. 5-7 Mar: A storm crossed Northland, Auckland, and Bay of Plenty with winds taking down trees and powerlines. 11 Mar: Early Snow coated the Remarkables. 17 Mar: In Tauranga, heavy rain caused surface flooding, slips and sewerage overflows. 9 Apr: Early Snow coated the Southern Alps. 27 Apr: Heavy rain caused flooding in Westland. Homes were evacuated in Greymouth and roads became impassable. Trampers were stranded in Aoraki Mt Cook National Park, and about 120 people were evacuated from the Milford Track by helicopter. 8-10 May: Snow traps tourists at Lindis Pass 11 May: Tornado in Warkworth. Waterspout was seen off Makatu.

11 May: Damaging hail storm hit Bay of Plenty. Image Credit to Jim Corbett

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 25

15, 17, 23, 24, 30 and 31 May: High winds in Wellington. 17 May: Tornado in Taranaki. Flooding hit South Canterbury, and, the next day, Otago. 19 May: Snow to low levels in Otago. 21 May: Snow and ice stranded motorists on Central Plateau. 30 May: Snow to low levels in Canterbury and around Dannevirke. 11-13 Jun: High winds and rain from a passing low affected Northland, Coromandel and Gis- borne. 16 Jun: Snow and ice hit Otago and Southland. 27 Jun: Thick fog affected Auckland. 28-30 Jun: A slow-moving low brought heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms to the north and northeast of the country. A civil defence emergency was put in place in Gisborne, as rain continued and rivers rose. 4 Jul: Tornado damaged houses in Kaitaia. 11 Jul: Severe gales affected Northland 13 Jul: Heavy rain affected Northland 18 Jul: Fog closed Christchurch Airport and severe gales affected Northland. 19 Jul: High winds damage Wairarapa. 21 Jul: Tornado in Cromwell, wind damage in Opunake. 23-24 Jul: High winds and heavy rain affected Wellington and eastern North Island, with flooding and slips causing road and rail closures. 1-2 Aug: Avalanche closed the Milford Road. It took ten days to clear. 26 Aug: Thunderstorms hit Auckland, Taranaki and western Bay of Plenty cutting power. 32 Aug: Heavy rain brought surface flooding to the Greater Wellington area, with a slip closing the rail tracks at Pukerua Bay. 5-6 Sep: Record frosts in a slow-moving anticyclone. 14 Sep: Extreme northwest wind gusts and record high Sep temperatures in eastern South Is- land (29ºC at Ashburton). A tree was blown on a Ute in Arrowtown.

23 Sep: Dust storm in Sydney. 24 Sep: Deep low #1 brought snow to low levels between Norse- wood and Wood- ville, and ice to many areas. 29 Sep: Tornado de-roofed a

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 26 Climate tipping point: Global Atmospheric Methane on the rise by Takver - Climate Indymedia Thursday Jan 7th, 2010 9:56 PM http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2010/01/07/18634696.php The concentration of methane in the atmosphere is rising, according to measurements made by the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) at its Bar- ing Head Station near Wellington, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion (NOAA). Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas whose affect on climate is 21 times stronger than Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and is the second most important contributor to global warming behind carbon dioxide. It is produced naturally mainly by biological breakdown of organic substances in oxy- gen-deficient conditions, such as the digestive system of ruminant animals and the decay of plant material in swamps or landfills. It is also prevalent in fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas (which is mainly methane). Measurements released in December 2009 from its globally significant Baring Head station showed that southern hemisphere atmospheric methane increased by 0.7% over the two-year period 2007-08. The increase amounted to about 35 times more than all the methane produced by New Zealand livestock each year. "The evidence we have shows that methane in the atmosphere is now more than double what it ever was during the 800,000 years before 1700AD" said NIWA Principal Scientist, Dr Keith Lassey. This analysis is based on exami- nation of ancient air trapped in polar ice that has been extracted and dated. Takver is a citizen journalist from Mel- bourne who has been writing on Climate Change issues and protests including Ris- ing Sea Level, Ocean acidification, Envi- ronmental and social Impacts since 2004. (Abridged)

Image by NIWA: "The atmospheric methane measured at Baring Head near Wellington since August 1989. The graph shows the methane mixing ratio in parts per billion (molecules of methane for every billion molecules of dried air). Methane concentrations grew strongly in the 1990s then tailed off. There was even a hint of declining concentrations (negative growth) for 2003-06. Growth resumed in 2007 and appears to be persisting."

Horse dies in Southland lightning strike NZPA 8 Jan 2010 http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/horse- dies-in-southland-lightning-strike- 3325984 Source: NZPA Hail storm A horse died instantly when it was struck by lightning during a vicious Southland thunderstorm. Seven-year-old Jonty was struck by forked lightning in a paddock on Auburn Rd, on the outskirts of Inver- cargill, about 2pm Thursday. The strike came moments after Colin Russel and his

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 27 14-year-old daughter Annie, who were in the paddock working with another horse, had ducked for cover to nearby stables as thunder cracked overhead and hail fell. The storm left roads and buildings in the city covered thickly with hail and the Fire Service dealt with 38 call outs between 2pm and 3.20pm. Flooding was reported as gutters and spouting blocked by hail could not handle the deluge of rain which fell in a 10-15 minute period. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the storm saw the temperature drop from 15degC to 8degC and hailstones measuring 5-8mm across fall. (Abridged)

Now it's always a good day in New Zealand Seen and Noted 15 Jan 2010

In conjunction with metservice.com relaunching its site, Y&R Wellington has created a billboard campaign to show people that with metservice.com as their planning tool any type of day can be wonderful. For 'wind', thousands of multi coloured children's pinwheels fluttered on the billboard surface. For 'rain', simulated (and actual) rain water spun specially-designed rainbow-wheels.

Rainfall great for farmers, not for orchardists ODT By Lynda Van Kempen on Mon, 11 Jan 2010 http://www.odt.co.nz/the-regions/central-otago/88622/rainfall-great- farmers-not-orchardists Duncan Fulcher (3), of Becks, was at the St Bathans Village Fete yesterday and, although the event was washed out during the afternoon, locals were happy to see the rain. Photo by Lynda Van Kempen. Steady rain in Central Otago yesterday was greeted by farmers and fire authorities as a godsend, but cherry growers were less impressed. It was the first significant rain since mid-May, Maniototo farmers said, and they were in celebration mode. A MetService spokesman said rainfall was consistent yesterday. Between 6am and 6pm, rainfall totalled 5.2mm in Dunedin, 9.8mm in Oamaru, 7.4mm in Queenstown and 8.2mm in Wanaka. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 28

Abnormal conditions testing seasonal crops http://www.odt.co.nz/the-regions/otago/89174/abnormal-conditions-testing-seasonal-crops Sat, 16 Jan 2010 Otago Daily Times It never rains but it pours, and the summer weather so far has been a mixed blessing for mar- ket gardeners, orchardists and grape growers in Otago this season. Lynley Hunter, of Waikouaiti Gardens, says "you have to take the good with the bad". But with rotting potatoes, stressed plants, and courgettes "blown out of the garden", the only positive appears to be plenty of sweet peas. A lack of sun meant pumpkins were not growing, and tomatoes were not getting enough heat to grow in the glass house, which had panes smashed by high winds. (Abridged)

Johanne Phillips, from Totara Lowlands, inspects her cherry crop yesterday. Photo by Sally Rae.

Hero drags family from torrent Dom Post 18 Jan 2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/national/3236149/Hero-drags-family-from-torrent

HERO: Stuart Newland rescued family members. If Stuart Newland had woken up 20 minutes later, his young daughter and nieces would be dead, swept away as flood- waters engulfed their campsite. A swollen Wairarapa river had trapped three sleeping girls in a car as the freezing water rose to the windows. The young father, who suffers from an agonising stomach condition, shepherded the terrified children to safety. He then returned to drag his wheelchair-bound father-in-law to safety. Mr Newland, of Palmerston North, and his family were camping in the small Te Awaiti Reserve, on the southern Wairarapa coast, when the Oterei River burst its banks. The Wellington region was lashed by wild weather at the weekend, recording double its average monthly rainfall in just two days. Yesterday, locals revealed other campers had previously been trapped by flooding in the reserve but the local council had ignored warnings. (Abridged)

Wind tests Round the Mountain cyclists By TONY BIRD Taranaki Daily News Last updated 05:00 18/01/2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/sport/3236357/Wind-tests-Round-the-Mountain-cyclists Brutal weather conditions tested riders to the limit in the annual Round the Mountain Cycle Ride on Saturday. Event director Robert Coe, who was riding in the lead safety vehicle, admitted later that had he known how windy conditions were on some parts of the 153km long course he most likely would have canned the event. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 29 ROBERT CHARLES/Taranaki Daily News WIND BREAK: The bunch head into Okato on their way to con- front the worst of the windy conditions in the Round The Moun- tain Cycle Ride on Saturday.

Northland farmers urged to call for help 21 Thu 2010 TVNZ http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/northland-farmers-urged- call-help-3336637 Northland farmers struggling with the driest period in the region since the 1980s, have been urged to call for help. The government declared the area a drought zone on Wednesday, following a prolonged dry spell through summer. That means struggling farmers and agriculturalists can get government assistance. MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt told NZPA the rainfall had been patchy, with some areas getting as little as 0.6mm while others had 12mm. Source: ONE News "To make a good inroad on the drought they'd need about 50 to 100mm over a week or so. They've had about 10mm over a day.They'd need this every day for a week." Denis Anderson, Federated Farmers president for the Far North, Whangarei and Kaipara, says highs and lows in weather were expected in Northland, but with Whangarei receiving just a third of its usual rainfall over the past three months the outlook was grim. Federated farmers has set up an 0800 number, 0800 DROUGHT to help farmers get feed for their stock.

Flooding cuts off roads in Hastings NZ Herald 22 Jan 2010 NZPA

Flooding on State Highway 2 near Te Ka- raka. Photo / Jonny Max Heavy rain has flooded streets in Hawke's Bay and prompted police to advise motorists stay off the road in the Hastings suburb of Flaxmere. The western end of Flaxmere past Chatam Rd had been completely cut off to vehicles, Senior Ser- geant Marty Edghill said. Some areas in the suburb were still accessible, but police advised residents to stay off the roads. Parts of State Highway 5 between Napier and Taupo had flooded as well, Mr Edghill said.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 30 WASHOUT! Flaxmere floods turn roads into rivers LAWRENCE GULLERY | 23rd January 2010 Hawke’s Bay Today http://www.hawkesbaytoday.co.nz/local/news/lead-story-washout-flaxmere-floods-turn-roads-into/3908990/

EMERGENCY: A flash flood provided celebration for some, while others were isolated in their cars or abandoned their vehicles on the side of the road, like these two cars spot- ted on the corner of Peterhead Ave and Swansea Rd, Flaxmere. The roads resembled rivers and people waded waist-deep in water when the skies opened and drains blocked in the Hastings suburb of Flaxmere yesterday afternoon. The deluge reached its peak between 3.30pm and 5pm when 39mm of rain was dumped over the district. (Abridged)

'Spectacular' thunderstorm causes deluge in Ida Valley By JOHN EDENS - The Southland Times 23 Jan 2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/3255769/Spectacular-thunderstorm-causes-deluge-in-Ida-Valley

JOHN EDENS/Southland Times AWASH: One of many flooded paddocks, off Moa Creek Rd, in the Ida Valley after a thunderstorm. Residents in Central Otago were mopping up yesterday after a record-breaking thunderstorm. The rainfall intensity was the highest recorded – 34mm in an hour – by an Otago Regional Council weather station in the Ida Val- ley. The deluge on Thursday led to surface flooding in Poolburn, Cromwell and near Ettrick but there were few reports yesterday of extensive damage to property. By 9am yesterday 58mm of rain had fallen, she said. Wedderburn Hotel owner Eric Leathley said water had risen rapidly up the building facade to a depth of about 60cm. The hotel was undamaged but the driveway and car park had been scoured, he said. Solandra Lodge owner Steve Goodlass said the intense storm passed directly over the Ida Valley. "It was like watching a big fireworks display come closer," he said. MetService forecaster Bob McDavitt said the Ida Valley reading was the third highest intensity recorded in Otago, after 37.5mm was dumped on Moa Flat in 2005 and 39.7mm fell near Clark's Flat in 1987. Lumsden had 54mm of rain from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning, he said.

10 big questions on climate change answered Weather Watch 25 Jan 2010-03-25 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10622135&pnum=0 WeatherWatch weather analyst Philip Duncan's blogs on climate change have attracted a lot of reader interest. He took readers' 10 most commonly asked questions and put them to Dr James Renwick, Principal Scientist, Climate Variability & Change at Niwa.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 31

Dr James Renwick. File photo / Mark Mitchell

Philip Duncan: 1) It feels like summers in New Zealand aren't as hot as they used to be - it doesn't feel like NZ is getting hotter at all? Dr Renwick: I hear that comment quite a lot, and I think a lot of it is psychological. My perception is that when you're young you spend a lot of time outdoors in the summer...the older we get the more time we spend indoors, in the office, less holi- days etc. So our perception is that summers used to be hotter, but I can assure you that the data show it is definitely warming up and has done so over the last century. 2) If the world is heating up, why are places like USA and UK seeing record cold and snow? That's the difference between global change and regional change. The USA and UK have had a very cold winter, but other parts of the northern hemisphere, such as Greenland, Alaska and the Arctic Ocean have been much warmer than average over the past few weeks, but this did- n't make the headlines. We need to be careful with comparing a local region to what's happening across the whole globe. 3) Why was Global Warming replaced with the term "Climate Change"? That's a really interesting question and I don't believe it ever was changed. My perception is that Climate Change has always been used in the scientific community, however the term "Global Warming" was something perhaps used more by the media and then the term stuck. There's a lot more to climate change than just warming - that's why all the scientists I know use and have always used the term "Climate Change". I don't think there has ever been an "official" replacement. 4) Last decade was NZ's warmest decade on record - but wasn't the increase within the margin of error or at the very least, a tiny change? There are two ways of looking at that. One of the records we used was based on seven climate stations which have data for well over 100 years. The difference in the averages (between the 2000s and the 1980s) from those stations was indeed very small and within margin of error. However it's important to note that four decades in a row have been significantly warmer than those before it. There are other records that can be used, such as the 11 reliable climate sites we described on our website last year, and in that data set the 2000s and the 1980s (next warmest decade) were more than one 10th of a degree different, which is significant. So the last 10 years were a bit warmer, and the last few decades have been a lot warmer than all the previous decades in the record, which shows an overall warming trend. If it was natural variability then you would expect a recent decade to have been cooler, like it was in the 1920s, say - but we aren't seeing any decades dropping back to those sorts of levels - and it's very unlikely going into the future that any will be that much cooler. 5) If the world is getting hotter, how come 2009 was cooler than average in NZ? This is partly the same as question 2. It's important to remember that New Zealand covers a small fraction of the globe. Climate change doesn't mean every year will be warmer in every country. It also doesn't mean every year will be warmer globally. There are always ups and downs but the trend is upwards. For instance, last century the eastern US actually cooled for several decades while the globe overall warmed up significantly. In the last 25 years however, that local cooling has reversed, as the globe has continued to warm. So, the overall trend is upwards, but even then we do see some cooling regions and some cooler periods. There are patches of the globe, sometimes quite large patches, which can go against the overall trend for a while - but that misses the point...if you're thinking about global change you have to look at

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 32 house at Ramarama. 4-5 Oct: Deep low #2 brought snow to low levels in Hawke’s Bay and central Plateau, estimated to be greatest October snowfall in the area since 1967, killed thousands of lambs, closed roads and stranded hundreds of travellers. 6 Oct: Snow was observed in Taranaki, Waikato and Rotorua. 8-9 Oct: Deep low #3 brought snow to Otago and Canterbury and Marlborough. 29 Oct: Hail damaged crops in Hawke’s Bay 4 Nov: High winds blew a container ship off its moorings at Lyttelton Harbour. 13 Nov: A southerly buster hit Canterbury during the Royal Show and felled trees. 14 Nov: High winds cancelled the Remembrance Day World War I Air show. 15 Nov: High winds toppled the main tent at Toast Martinborough 26 Nov: High winds toppled trees and cut power at Porangahau. 28 Nov: High winds knocked caravans over in Canterbury. 4-5 Dec: Severe thunderstorms hit Kaipara. Surface flooding hit Auckland and Coromandel. 14 Dec: Severe thunderstorms hit Canterbury with hail as large as golf balls. 25: Settled summer weather arrives in time for holidaymakers everywhere except Wellington and the south of the South Island.

New Year's day was a scorcher By FLEUR COGLE - The Timaru Herald 2 Jan 2010-03-26 http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/3202558/New-Years-day-was-a-scorcher Timaru's new year kicked off with one of the hottest days of this summer. The temperature peaked at 34 degrees Celsius at 2pm in Timaru, giving it the national high and drawing people down to Caroline Bay to make the most of the sunshine and heat. (Abridged)

Wind topples tree within metres of woman By MICHAEL FORBES and SCOT MacKAY - The Press 2 Jan 2010-03-26 http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/3202503/Wind-topples-tree-within-metres-of-woman

MARK HOTTON/ The South- land Times CLOSE CALL: A tree trunk lies across a Southland Museum driveway after it came within metres of hitting a woman passer-by. Winds gusting to more than 110km caused havoc across Southland yesterday, with a woman finding herself metres from death after a tree was blown over at the South- land Museum. Damage to powerlines also caused power cuts to more than 3500 homes and an aircraft approaching Invercargill Airport had to make three at- tempts at landing. High winds at the museum caused a large pine to break near its base and fall against a neighbouring tree. MetService forecaster Gerard Barrow said the strongest wind gust it recorded yesterday was 115km at Gore. However, the gusts of 130-140km were predicted for New Year's Day and considering the damage caused, it was likely the wind really was that strong, Mr Barrow said

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 33

Nelson regains sunshine record NZPA / Nelson Mail. Tuesday January 05, 2010 http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/nelson- regains-sunshine-record-3324591 Nelson has regained its title as the sunshine capital of the country.

Niwa reported on Tuesday that Nelson had the most sunshine hours during last year. The city clocked up 2,571 hours, 31 hours ahead of Tau- ranga's 2,540, according to Niwa's provisional figures. 2008 winner Blenheim came in third with 2,466 hours, but the figure for September 21 was missing because of an instrument problem.

Tauranga's top in sun stakes - again!

Bay of Plenty Times by Ellen Irvine | 6th Janu- ary 2010 We're best in North Island when it comes to blue-sky days PICTURE MARK McKEOWN: Swimmers Wai- marie Mason and Kneesa Tata enjoyed Tauranga's sunny weather yesterday, cooling down in Tauranga Harbour. News that Tauranga was set to be named the sunniest city in the North Island came as no sur- prise to swimmers enjoying the sunshine yesterday. Although we're not quite as sunny as Nelson, Tauranga looks certain to be the sunniest city in the North Island when 2009 figures are released. The maximum temperature in the city so far this year was also on January 1, when the mercury hit 27.5C. (Abridged)

Warmest decade on record for NZ One News 6 Jan 2010 http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/warmest- decade-record-nz-3324843

The last decade has been confirmed as the warmest on record for New Zealand. The National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research says 2000-2009 was slightly warmer for New Zealand than the 1980s, which was the previous warmest decade. "This result is caused by a combination of natural variability and a background warming trend," says Dr James Renwick, NIWA Principal Scientist. NIWA's finding is consistent with a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statement that the decade from 2000-2009 is likely to be the warmest decade on record for global average temperatures. The WMO predicted that 2009 would rank in the top 10 warmest years on record globally. For New Zealand, however, the year 2009 itself was slightly colder than the 1971-2000 average.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 34 the whole globe. 6)Weather forecasters can't even predict the weather 2 weeks out, how can climate scientists predict 10 or 50 years out? Well that's confusing the weather with the climate. Its true you can't predict the exact daily sequence of the weather more than a week or two out. But we (climate scientists) can say, with quite a lot of certainty, that July is going to be cooler than January in Auckland because seasonal change in the climate is predictable...and changes in the average climate over decades are also quite predictable. We're not in the business of saying what the weather will be like in Jan 2050, but we can predict average conditions several decades out on the basis of greenhouse gas increase. Here are a couple of analogies that might help explain my point: Analogy1: Imagine you're out in the harbour on your boat. Predicting the weather is a bit like predicting the ripples of the waves on the sea caused by the wind. Predicting the climate is more like predicting the tides. Analogy 2: Nobody can predict exactly when you and I will die, but insurance companies make a lot of money from knowing what the average death rate is - this average can't be applied to any individual. Predicting the climate is like using those life expectancy tables...we can predict the averages and the overall statistics with a fair degree of accuracy. Predicting the weather is more like tracking an individual person...certainly more variable. 7) Is 30 years of weather data long enough to use as a "guide" for predicting the future? The four warmest decades where the last four decades...and some have interpreted that to mean we didn't have data from before that. Actually, we have good records from a lot of stations in NZ from the last 70 or 80 years and some back well over 100 years. Globally, scientists use ice cores, tree rings, and other records to estimate climate over several hundred or thousand years. 30 years is certainly not long enough but no one is actually using just 30 years of data. 7B: You just mentioned ice cores - but haven't they showed big warmings in the past? Yes you're right, and that tells us the climate is sensitive. ...it just happens that it has been pretty stable while human society has been around. There are certainly natural things that cause fluctuations, such as changes in the Earth's orbit that drive the ice ages, but it's also clear that human activity - CO2, Greenhouse gas release affects the climate as well...in fact, ba- sic physics shows that today's greenhouse gas release is a much faster way to heat the planet than the slow natural warming process that ends an ice age. I often hear this argument: Be- cause there are natural causes of variation then the concept of human-caused variations is im- possible - i.e. there's been natural cause in the past so then that rules out a human cause now. That argument just doesn't make sense. Natural influences have caused the climate to change quite a lot in the past and that should give us concern...it shows that the climate is variable, and vulnerable. 8)Are scientists scared to speak out about what they really believe for fear of being alarmist or not "going with the consensus"? Well no (laughing)...no not at all. Scientists are in the business they're in because they want to find out what's actually happening with the natural world. I don't know one scientist who is scared to speak out about what they believe...and believe is an interesting word. Science is about observing the natural world and building understanding on those observations, it's not about belief. Scientists publish their results openly, there's no fear of speaking out at all. Go- ing with the "consensus" is an illusion too. For instance, the IPCC is a review process - it summarises what thousands of scientists all over the world have observed, or modelled, or de- duced - it doesn't dictate to them, just summarises. It turns out 99.9 per cent of work reported does indeed form a consensus... that's a reflection of how things are, of what the real world looks like - it's a very clear picture. 9) Why does it seem that climate change is so doom and gloom? I'm burnt by warnings of things like SARS, Y2K, Bird Flu, Swine Flu etc how can I trust the experts on this one? There isn't an easy answer to that...there have been a lot of things in the media that haven't turned out to be as important or dangerous as we are led to believe...and if you're not an ex-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 35 pert in those fields then what do you believe? What I can say is that with climate change there is an incredible weight of evidence that shows that climate change is happening...it is definitely a problem. Almost every scientific paper out there supports this view. The IPCC process is designed to help non-experts understand the problem. There are a lot of dire possibilities with future climate change...all the scientist I know are very concerned, and have a sense of urgency about taking action. To help convey that sense or urgency to the public, we sometimes do focus on the biggest issues or risks. It's important to note though that it's not all doom and gloom...there will be some winners, at least in the short term....perhaps more grass or grape growth in colder parts of New Zealand...but unfortunately there will be more losers than winners for the globe, and more at risk as times goes on. 10) Copenhagen seemed like a complete waste of money...are politics helping or confusing your cause? Science is about evidence and understanding the natural world, so scientists are not in the business of politics. But there has to be a political process to deal with this problem, one that's informed by the science. There is no alternative to dealing with this, and individual countries need to work together. Getting that cooperation going can seem slow and confusing, and a bit of a time wasting process. From my point of view it would be great if the political process was more efficient and faster. Copenhagen was a bit disappointing...but given human nature, I guess the world community has to go through these stages before we really get somewhere. I was just reading a report on Copenhagen (from the Business Council for Sustainable Development)...and the author said it reminded him of going to a dance as a teenager...it takes a long time to get couples up on the dance floor... but eventually someone gets up and dances, and then everyone wants to dance. That was Copenhagen - things didn't really get going there, but we hope the big players will be ready to dance soon. In the scientific community there is a great deal of concern and a sense of urgency - that we have to do something now. This hasn't quite gotten through to the international political world. We aren't taking it seriously enough yet...and there isn't a lot of time left to get on top of things.

Hamilton electrical storm "like a strobe light" Weather Workshop 28 jan 2010 7,000 lightning strikes de- tected in less than 6 hours Storms peaked at well over 3000 strikes per hour Severe thunderstorm passed right over Hamilton City. An amazing and rare electrical storm lit up the skies above Waikato last night and around 9pm centred itself over Hamil- ton city. WeatherWatch.co.nz received numerous comments about the storm with many saying they had never seen

MetService have had a high success rate with accurately predicting and monitoring the storms this week with their new Thunderstorm Watches and Warnings. (Abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 36 Flooding and slips close North Island roads 31 Jan 2010 NZPA http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/flooding-and-slips-close-north-island-roads-3346222

Source: ONE News Flooding and slips have closed roads, prompted evacuations and isolated rural communities as heavy rain continues to hammer the eastern North Island. Gisborne was particularly hard- hit on Sunday, with heavy rain leading to the evacuation of more than 20 people and forcing the closure of two major roads in the region. Widespread slips and flooding prompted the closure of State Highway 5 between Napier and Taupo about 2pm. Flooding also forced the closure of SH2 between Dymock Rd and Whatatutu Rd, near Te Karaka, 32km northwest of Gisborne. Fifteen people trapped by two areas of flooding were airlifted to Gisborne by helicopter, while about 40 cars heading to Gisborne from the Bay of Plenty were forced to turn back, Gisborne Civil Defence emergency management officer Richard Steele said. Meanwhile, six people north of Tolaga Bay, Gisborne, were twice evacuated from their homes on Sunday. The Mangatuna village residents were moved out on Sunday morning as the Uawa River rose from it usual 4m to 11m. They were allowed to return several hours later but were evacuated again on Sunday afternoon as a precaution due to the uncertainty of the weather, Steele said. More than 280mmm of rain had fallen in some areas around Gisborne in the past 36 hours, Steele said. (Abridged)

More electrical storms coming Waikato’s way Waikato Times 28 Jan 2010 Nature’s spectacular nightly sound and light show is not over.

Wild evening electrical storms lashing the Waikato are set to continue, with forecasters saying conditions are per- fect for generating thunder, lightning and downpours. Hamilton and surrounding areas were thrashed by another storm between 7pm and 11pm yesterday with the dazzling light show ironically coming as Aussie rockers AC/DC arrived in the country for three shows, including their iconic hard rock anthem, Thun- derstruck.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 37 MetService severe weather forecaster Chris Noble said the storms built up as cool moist sea breezes met with warm air masses over the region. Mr Noble said Waikato’s geography was contributing to the storms: ‘‘A sea breeze off the west coast comes in, and that meets a sea breeze coming in off the Coromandel and Bay of Plenty. They tend to collide over the Waikato, where it’s nice and warm, and that’s an ideal (storm) set-up.’’ The storms resulted in more than 13,400 lightning strikes across the central and upper North Island last evening, with an estimated 5000 of those in the Waikato. Mr Noble said more thunderstorms were expected today over much of the North Island, with a possibility of severe conditions over the Waikato, again from dusk onward. ‘‘The weather pattern hasn’t changed a lot, and I suspect that’ll repeat again, but perhaps not exactly the same places will be hit,’’ Mr Noble said. Where they hit: A MetService map showing lightning strikes recorded in the Waikato between 6pm and midnight yesterday. The colours indicate the time of the strikes; pink 6pm-7pm, blue 7pm-8pm, , green 8pm-9pm, brown 9pm-10pm, orange 10pm-11pm, and red is 11pm- midnight. (Abridged)

Communities count cost of floods Monday February 01, 2010 One News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/rain-easing-roads-reopening-3346390

Source: Photo courtesy of Hagen Telfer A bridge over the Waipaoa river, 70km northeast of Gis- borne, is covered with debris after flooding Torrential rain over the weekend has caused major problems in the central North Island, cutting off access to one area inland from Gisborne and slips forcing the closure of some major highways for a time. It was flooding like locals have never seen before. The heavy flow of water gushed down the Waipaoa River with such force, it damaged the only bridge over it, cutting off the Wai- paoa Station near Te Karaka from the outside world. More than 30 people were stranded at Waipaoa Station. (Abridged)

Weekend's heavy rain petering out By Rachel Tiffen NZ Herald 2 Feb 2010 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10623520 Bryan Hart needed heavy pumps and sandbags to protect his Hamilton home after heavy rain. Photo / Christine Cornege Falls of more than 200mm swamped parts of the eastern North Island over the weekend, cutting off rural communities in Gisborne and causing a number of slips and evacuations. Fifteen people trapped by rising water were airlifted to safety and motorists coming from the Bay of Plenty were turned back. Just north of Te Karaka more than 30 people were stranded when water and debris buckled a bridge on the Waipaoa River. Eight people were trapped in Hawkes Bay bush by a rising river overnight on Sunday.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 38 But drought-stricken Northland farmers welcomed the rain after some of the driest conditions in years. Some properties received 60mm of rain yesterday, but farmers told Television New Zealand it was not enough to make a difference. Weatherwatch head analyst Philip Dun- can said about 50mm had fallen across parts of the region, which was healthy but not a drought-breaker. By late morning yesterday all roads were cleared and open and the MetService heavy rain warning lifted. Forecaster Gerard Barrow said the North Island was in for largely settled, sunny weather for the rest of the week. "It's becoming more settled from Wednesday on," he said. "Predominantly for the North Island you are looking at settled weather." SODDEN SPOTS Rainfall over weekend, MetService * Hikuwai (north Gisborne) - 240mm * Te Pohue (Hawkes Bay) - 240mm * Pukeorapa (Hawkes Bay) - 139mm * Hamilton - 82mm * Napier - 70mm (Abridged)

Tears from heaven' 2 Feb 2010 Northern Advocate http://www.northernadvocate.co.nz/local/news/tears-from-heaven/3909407/

Kokopu dairy farmer Denis Anderson welcomes rain after months of dry weather. Heavy rain that soaked most of North- land yesterday was described as tears from heaven by farmers who have been battling tinder-dry conditions for months. But while Whangarei, Kaipara, Kaikohe and Kerikeri recorded between 30 and 35mm of rain in the 24 hours to midday yesterday, Kaitaia was not so lucky, with just 1mm falling. The driest place was Kerikeri, which had recorded just 10 per cent of its long-term average rainfall over the same period. Most areas in Northland would require 125-140mm of rain to restore normal soil moisture levels. (Abridged)

Storm warning radar for Bay by John Cousins | 11th February 2010 Bay of Plenty Times http://www.bayofplentytimes.co.nz/local/news/storm-warning-radar-for-bay/3909818/ A $2.8 million weather radar to take the guesswork out of storms descending into the Bay of Plenty should be up and running by the middle of this year. MetService has applied to Rotorua District Council to build the radar station on a site at the top of the Mamaku Range. The radar detects weather systems and supplies precise short-term warnings of storm paths. It would have been particularly helpful in May 2005 when Tauranga was surprised by the direction and ferocity of the storm that devastated parts of the city.

Cyclone hits Cooks By MICHAEL FIELD and MICHAEL FOX -Stuff.co.nz 11 Feb 2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/3315061/Cyclone-Pat-ravages-Cook-Islands

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 39

Cyclone Pat is heading for Rarotonga, after devastating Ai- tutaki, with forecasters warning the island will be ham- mered by "damaging gale force" winds. The Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji warned the winds will gust up to 60 knots and the island has also been told to expect heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. There are warnings of high seas and "damaging heavy swells" while flooding is also expected. Cyclone Pat hit the atoll of Aitutaki, home to around 2000 people, overnight, causing widespread damage which early reports suggest has been worse than feared. Cook Islands Police Commissioner Maara Tetava said here was damage to up to 90 percent of houses - mainly to their roofs. However, there had been no reports of any serious casualties, with the worst injury so far being to a woman whose leg was cut by flying glass (Abridged) Storm warning radar for Bay by John Cousins | 11th February 2010 Bay of Plenty Times http://www.bayofplentytimes.co.nz/local/news/storm-warning-radar-for-bay/3909818/ A $2.8 million weather radar to take the guesswork out of storms descending into the Bay of Plenty should be up and running by the middle of this year. MetService has applied to Rotorua District Council to build the radar station on a site at the top of the Mamaku Range. The radar detects weather systems and supplies precise short-term warnings of storm paths. It would have been particularly helpful in May 2005 when Tauranga was surprised by the direction and ferocity of the storm that devastated parts of the city.

Visitors pouring into town for festival 12 Feb2010 Marlborough Express Marlborough Wine Festival-goers are injecting millions into the region’s economy as extra flights are put on, accommodation providers report no vacancies and Cook Strait ferries transport record numbers of passengers.

Photo: BEN CURRAN Final checks: Wine Marlborough marketing manager Marcus Pickens says everything is on track for tomorrow’s Marlbor- ough Wine Festival to be a stunner. Wine Marlborough marketing manager Marcus Pickens said more than 5500 people were expected to pour into the region to attend the festival tomorrow. He estimated that each guest would spend at least $300 a day, taking into account accommodation, food, drinks, and tickets to the festival. He said the weather forecasts were a bit up and down, but he was hopeful that Marlborough would turn on the sunshine. ‘‘We know people are going to have a fantastic time regardless of the weather.’’

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 40 Sea fog 'soup' rolls into Wellington The Dom Post 28 Jan 2010 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/local/3269115/Sea-fog-soup-rolls-into-Wellington

KENT BLECHYNDEN/The Dominion Post SOUPED-UP: Rowers on Wellington Harbour during yesterday's foggy period. Sea fog poured into Wellington Harbour again and flooded up Ngauranga Gorge, leaving morning motorists to navigate through the "soup". Though sea fog rolls into Wellington only about six times a year, the phenomenon appeared around the eastern suburbs on Tuesday afternoon and again yesterday morning. The fog is caused by warm, moist air blowing down the Wairarapa coast and mixing with much colder temperatures in Cook Strait. A southerly wind then blows it back toward Wellington. MetService forecaster Paul Ngamanu was driving to work down Ngauranga Gorge about 8.30am yesterday when his car became engulfed in the fog. "I couldn't see anything, I was in a soup." The fog rose up about 3am but was clearing by 9am.

Masterton Cops Sudden Deluge Wairarapa Age 29 Jan 2010 http://www.times-age.co.nz/local/news/masterton-cops-sudden-deluge/3909245/

Furious but fleeting rain burst through roofs, flooded streets and triggered alarms in central Masterton yesterday afternoon. Met Service forecaster Gerard Barrow said a rain warning was issued for Wairarapa for the area from Featherston to Masterton about 4.30pm with more than 25mm of rain falling in isolated parts of that stretch over the previous hour. He said slow-moving but intense thunderstorms had developed over North Island from Auckland to Wairarapa bring a likeli- hood of flash floods and hailstones up to 20mm in diameter. (Abridged)

World's Highest Wind Gust Record Shattered 29 Jan 210 The U.N. World Meteorological Organization says that a new record- high wind gust, not related to a tornado, occurred in northwestern Australia at the height of Cyclone Olivia’s fury on April 10, 1996.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 41 Review by a panel of experts of weather records and Barrow Island’s wind instruments concluded that the new record gust of 253 mph surpassed the previous record of 231 mph that occurred atop New Hampshire’s Mount Washington on April 12, 1934. “It’s obviously a big disappointment. Having the world record for over six decades was such a part of the soul of this organization and for fans of Mount Washington around the country,” said Scot Henley, Mount Washing- ton Observatory’s executive director. He said that the Australians apparently didn’t think the gust was that big of a deal at the time, and the report never made it into the record books.

Mount Washington Observatory in New Hamp- shire has lost its distinction as site of the world's highest wind gust.

Niwa to put temperature data on web By Eloise Gibson NZ Herald 30 Jan 2010 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10623169&pnum=0 The country's climate forecaster is bowing to public pressure and putting all of its temperature data and calculations on the internet because of mistrust fuelled by errors overseas. Principal climate scientist James Renwick said Niwa had decided to bare all because "if we don't we appear to be hiding something". Two people in Niwa's climate group have prepared a full set of documents including all the data from climate stations and a full explanation of the adjustments made to records, which should be available online in about a week. IPCC'S INTEMPERATE YEAR IN THE HEADLINES 1 Climategate: Emails from the University of East Anglia which were leaked on the internet in November re- veal scientists avoided releasing data to critics. The British Information Commissioner's office has ruled the UEA breached British freedom-of-information laws, but the complaint came too late for the information watchdog to prosecute. 2 Glaciergate: IPCC is accused of over-hyping claims after admitting a line in its 2007 report saying Himala- yan glaciers could melt away by 2035 was unfounded. Senior scientists reaffirm that glaciers are melting at historically high rates - although the melt time for the Himalayan glaciers may be closer to 300 years. 3 Storm claims: The Sunday Times newspaper accused the IPCC of wrongly linking climate change with the rising cost of natural disasters after its 2007 report referred to an unpublished study showing a "small statistically significant trend" in property losses that could not be explained by economic growth.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 42 Metservice weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said tomorrow would be windy, with temperatures reaching a maximum of 27 degrees Celsius. He said a front would arrive later in the day, bringing some of the ‘‘sprinkly stuff’’ and cloud.

Multisports: Walker joins the immortals By Terry Maddaford 14 Feb 2010 Gordon Walker battled extreme conditions on his way to a third world multisport championship win. Photo / Getty Images Gordon Walker joined the immortals of the Speight's Coast to Coast with his third win in the world multisport championship yesterday. Defending the title he won last year and taking his victory haul to three - after his 2007 triumph - Walker joined legends Steve Gurney, John Jacoby and Richard Ussher as a three-time (or more) winner. Heavy rain meant the 33km mountain run over Goat Pass was replaced by a run on the tarmac over Arthur's Pass, while the 67km kayak down the Wai- makiriri River was also canned, replaced by a 130km ride into Christ- church. Competitors managed to jump in their kayaks, albeit for a brief blast down the Avon, before a final ride to Sumner Beach. "We had no option but to make the changes," said race organiser Robin Judkins. "Safety has always been paramount and we were not going to take any risks. "Everything we had been told by the MetService came to fruition. That meant we were well- prepared and able to put plan B into place." "This was probably the hardest longest day I have done," said Walker, who first thought about entering after the Lake to Lighthouse race in late November and only confirmed his entry a couple of weeks ago. (Abridged)

Sweating days and sleepless nights By Eloise Gibson NZ Herald 18Feb http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10626906 Aucklanders and other North Islanders stifled by the heat should sleep easier from tomorrow - tonight should be the last in a run of extremely stuffy nights. On Tuesday, the overnight temperature in Auckland did not fall below 20C, and humidity has been hovering at close to 100 per cent, sparking a rush of grumbling yesterday on social net- works such as Facebook and Twitter. MetService forecaster Ramon Oosterkamp said the extremely humid air would be gone by tomorrow after hanging around for close to a week. Weatherwatch analyst Philip Duncan said Auckland was the hottest centre yesterday with a temperature of 28C and a humidex, or "feels like", temperature of 35C. In Whangarei, the humidex was 32C and in eastern Coromandel and Waikato it was around 33C. HOW TO BEAT THE HEAT * Drink lots of water - more than you think you need. * Avoid drinking alcohol, coffee or cola and eating heavy meals. * Dress right - wear light and loose-fitting clothing. * Fan yourself or get into a breeze, although skin temperature is 32C, so once the air tempera-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 43 ture passes 28C, this has little effect. * Slow down and seek the shade. Shun the sun and close the curtains. * Take a trip to air-conditioned places - shopping malls, thea- tres or community centres. * Take a dip or a cool shower. Wear something cool and wet. Source: MetService.com (Abridged)

Construction workers fight yesterday's heat and humidity with water bottles and a shady tree. Photo / Sarah Ivey Nature hit worst by raging Titahi Bay fire By AMANDA FISHER and BRITTON BROUN - The Dominion Post 23 Feb 2010 MAARTEN HOLL/The Dominion Post DEVASTATING SIGHT: An aerial view shows the extent of the damage from the Titahi Bay blaze. The fire which swept through 75 hectares of gorse and bush near Wellington is expected to cost more than $100,000, but environmental damage is likely to be much higher. The fire is believed to have been deliberately lit. It began at 4.20pm on Sunday, and is believed to have started in dry grass near the beach at Shelley Bay before northerly winds fanned it up a gorse-covered ridge, over a plateau and into a Conservation Department eco- site around the Onepoto Stream at the bottom of a valley. Up to five helicopters emptied monsoon buckets near houses on Gloaming Hill – at a cost of about $90,000 – and up to 80 firefighters were needed at the peak of the fire. Porirua emergency manager Trevor Farmer said the cost of fighting the fire was high, but it was dwarfed by the cost to the environment. While no houses were badly damaged, there were reports of plastic spouting melting in the heat. BY THE NUMBERS * About 150 residents evacuated * Up to 80 firefighters joined rescue efforts * Five helicopters used * An estimated 75 hectares were burnt * About 250 monsoon buckets dropped (1000 litres in each) * Two youths were arrested in relation to the arson * A 14-year-old has been charged with arson (Abridged)

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700ha of forest razed in Otago blaze By WILMA MCCORKINDALE Otago Daily Times/Stuff 24 Feb 2010 stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/3366456/700ha-of-forest-razed-in-Otago-blaze

MICHAEL ALEXANDER MCQUEEN SCORCHED: A helicopter flies over the burning forest. A change in the wind and a drop in temperature have been welcomed as a large forestry fire northwest of Dunedin continues into its second night tonight. Eight people from five homes have been evacuated and up to another 20 cautioned they may need to move if the fire moves closer. The Taieri George Train decided against running today after fire crossed its railway lines at some point. He was unsure if it would run tomorrow. A sparked caused by friction from a logging haul rope started the fire, Mr Cormack said. It was too soon to estimate the financial losses, he said. However, he had advised the New Zea- land-based Chinese owners of the forestry. -with MICHELLE SUTTON (Abridged)

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WHAT IS THE MET SOCIETY ?

The Society is a group of people from around New Zealand (and overseas) who like to share their fascination in weather and its antics. The Society was inaugu- rated at a meeting held in Wellington on 11 October 1979. The objects of the So- ciety are to encourage an interest in the atmosphere, weather, and climate, particularly as related to the New Zealand region.

What does the Society provide? Access to a lively committee who are specially elected watchdogs for any contentious issue involving weather or climate. For members in the main centres: An e-group for communications plus organ- ised meetings throughout the year on weather and climate topics. A quarterly newsletter full of member’s news and views plus descriptions of recent significant weather. An annual professional journal Weather and Climate , providing members access to the latest peer-reviewed thinking in the profession of meteorology. It is ac- cepted internationally as the journal that gives recognition of the value of meteorological and climatological work done in New Zealand. It contains papers of interest to both professional and general readers. It also includes book reviews and explanations of the unusual. Members are invited to send in their own descriptions or photos. An annual conference. A web site http://metsoc.rsnz.org/ Who are the Society members? We are a mix of professionals and non-professionals. We come from a broad range of backgrounds, including: meteorologists, weather watchers and storm chasers Climatologists and environmentalists, Geographers and geophysicists, Atmospheric scientists, physicists and chemists hydrologists and ecologists sailors and divers trampers and climbers Aviators, flyers and glider pilots agriculturists and aquaculturists astronomers and cloud-admirers economists and engineers professional weather forecasters

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 46

MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION FORM

Anyone with an interest in the atmosphere, weather and climate of New Zealand may join us. We welcome applications from non-professionals and from those in disciplines related to the study of the atmosphere (oceanography, hydrology, etc.).

A brief description of the Society and a list of services are outlined on the other side of this page. If you wish to apply for membership, please complete the form below.

I wish to apply for membership of the Meteorological So-

1. Name and Address (include email):

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4. Payment (annual): Ordinary members ...... $35.00* Institutional members ...... $105.00* Overseas posting surcharge ...... $15.00* Subscriptions are due on 1 August. * Rates here are for 2008/9 and may change at AGM. Our financial year is from 1 August to 31 July.

5. Signature: ______Date:______6. Please return this form, and a cheque (made out to Meteorological Society of N.Z. ) to The Secretary Meteorological Society of New Zealand P.O. Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141 New Zealand

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 47

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - March 2010 - Page 48