The World Bank ODRA- FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

REPORT NO.: RES41216 Public Disclosure Authorized

RESTRUCTURING PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING

OF ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT APPROVED ON JULY 23, 2015 TO Public Disclosure Authorized REPUBLIC OF

JUNE 25, 2020

WATER GLOBAL PRACTICE EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Public Disclosure Authorized

Regional Vice President: Anna M. Bjerde Country Director: Arup Banerji Regional Director: Steven N. Schonberger Practice Manager/Manager: David Michaud Task Team Leader(s): Berina Uwimbabazi Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

APSFR Areas of Potential and Significant Flood Risk CEB Council of Europe Development Bank ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework EU European Union EUCF European Union Cohesion Fund EUR Euro IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IFR Interim Financial Reports IMGW Institute of Meteorology and Water Management KZGW National Water Management Authority NGO Non-Government Organization MAD Ministry of Administration and Digitalization MoE Ministry of Environment MoF Ministry of Finance MTR Mid-Term Review MMEIN Ministry of Marine Economy and Inland Navigation OVFMP Odra-Vistula Flood Management Project PCU Project Coordination Unit PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit RBMP River Basin Management Plans RGZW Regional Water Management Authority TA Technical Assistance ZMiUW Voivodship Board of Land Reclamation and Waters The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

BASIC DATA

Product Information

Project ID Financing Instrument P147460 Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)

Approval Date Current Closing Date 23-Jul-2015 15-Dec-2023

Organizations

Borrower Responsible Agency Republic of Poland Ministry of Interior and Administration

Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The project development objectives are to increase access to flood protection for people living in selected areas of the Odra Riverand the Upper Vistula River basins and to strengthen the institutional capacity of the Borrower to mitigate the impact of floods more effectively. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed

IBRD-85240 23-Jul-2015 10-Sep-2015 04-Nov-2015 15-Dec-2023 504.04 92.09 413.68

Policy Waiver(s)

Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No

The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

Background

1. This restructuring paper suggests corrective measures, following a Mid-Term Review assessment, needed to ensure that the PDO is achieved and project implementation is set back to a satisfactory path. The key adjustments proposed through this first restructuring of OVFMP are changes in the: Activities and Costs1, Implementation Arrangements and Results Framework.

2. The Odra-Vistula Flood Management Project was approved on July 23, 2015 for an IBRD loan (IBRD 8524-PL) for US$496 million with co-financing by the Council of Europe Development Bank (CEB) for US$323 million, European Union for US$216 million and the Government of Poland Counter finance for US$216 million. The Project was declared effective on November 4, 2015 and is scheduled to close on December 15, 2023. The overall goal of the project is to strengthen flood protection, improve preparedness, and invest in further effective river and flood risk management. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to increase access to flood protection for people living in selected areas of the Odra River and the Upper Vistula River basins and to strengthen the institutional capacity of the Borrower to mitigate the impact of floods more effectively. It comprises of five components: (1) Flood protection of the Middle and Lower Odra; (2) Flood protection of the Nysa Klodzka Valley; (3) Flood protection of the Upper Vistula; (4) Institutional strengthening and enhanced forecasting; and (5) Project management and studies.

3. The Project’s direct beneficiaries are the population of the regions that the project covers, estimated to be about 15.1 million people. The project provides the following three areas with flood management infrastructure and related measures: (i) the Middle and Lower Odra; (ii) the Nysa Kłodzka Valley; and (iii) selected parts of the Upper Vistula including notably the areas of Kraków, , and communities in the and the San tributary catchments. Other beneficiaries are those that are recipients of activities aiming to further strengthen the national institutional capacity under the project for flood risk management and improve preparedness of the country.

4. At appraisal, the implementation arrangements for the coordination and monitoring of project activities were designated to the Ministry of Environment (MoE), through the National Water Management Authority (KZGW) and the Ministry of Administration and Digitalization (MAD). A total of nine (9) PIUs were established, within the respective Regional Water Management Authority (RGZW), Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Voivodship Board of Land Reclamation and Waters (ZMiUW). Following a reform in the water sector, and the effectiveness of a new Water Law Act, the State Water Holding Polish Waters (PWs) was established to perform water management tasks and is a direct successor of the KZGW.

Status

5. Currently, the PDO remains relevant and there is progress towards achieving the expected development outcomes. Progress towards achievement of the Project Development Objective (PDO) is rated as ‘Moderately Unsatisfactory’, downgraded from ‘Moderately Satisfactory’ in June 2019, due to a cumulative risk of original activities not being implemented prior to project closure, and therefore not contributing to the achievement of the PDO. Implementation Progress (IP) was also downgraded to ‘Moderately Unsatisfactory’ in June 2019, as a result of stagnated implementation and poor performance of some PIUs causing additional delays in the implementation of

1 No changes to the components would be made, but only to a limited number of project-supported activities within each component. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

activities. These downgrades to the IP were also due to significant delays in procurement and implementation of key project activities such as contract works for modernizing and improving weather and hydrological stations, as well as improving forecasting capacities (IMGW-PIB Component) and flood protection measures of the city of Kłodzko and other small towns and localities within the Nysa Kłodzko Valley. Several actions have been undertaken since to improve implementation including strengthening staffing within consultancy teams to fast track the preparatory studies e.g. detailed technical designs; fast tracking procurement processing and contracting; training of PCU and PIU staff to strengthen capacity for monitoring and supervision; as well as restructuring of PIUs. Nevertheless, these measures alone will not suffice to ensure the achievement of the PDO and bringing back the IP on track, hence a project restructuring is required.

6. As of June 25, 2020, total disbursements of the IBRD loan amounted to US$92.09 million (18.27 percent). Total commitment amounts to US$660.95 million2(42% of the total project cost). Below is a summary of the implementation status of the five project components to date.

a. Component One: Flood protection of the Middle and Lower Odra (US$6433 million of which US$177.7 million (27%) is committed). The aim of this component is to enhance protection against summer and winter floods for the cities of Szczecin, Słubice, Gryfino, and others along the middle and lower Odra River, within Areas of Potential and Significant Flood Risk (APSFR). As a result of complaints received from Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in relation to the Environmental and Social safeguards documentation prepared for the modernization works on boundary sections of Odra River, significant delays in implementation were experienced. Despite the external factors that have impacted the scope and the timeliness of implementation, proactive actions including improved communication and stakeholder engagement have been implemented.

b. Component Two: Flood protection of the Nysa Klodzka Valley (US$344.5 million of which US$195.7 million (56%) is committed). This component is divided into two-subcomponents, focused on active protection through the construction of four mid-sized dry polders, dike rehabilitation and construction, and passive protection through the reconstruction of the river alignments and embankments, as well as small bridges and other structures to allow temporary retention and safe passage of flood waves, accompanied by large amounts of debris, through the Nysa Kłodzko Valley. Activities under the passive protection stream of work have been modified to incorporate feedback collected during public consultations in Kłodzko Valley, and the results of extensive analytical studies.

c. Component Three: Flood protection of the Upper Vistula (US$287.3 million of which US$109.38 million (38%) is committed). The activities in this component are to protect the Kraków agglomeration and Nowa Huta industrial area, the Sandomierz- industrial and agricultural area, and selected towns on tributaries in the sub-basins of the San and Raba rivers. The investments include improvements and extension of dikes along the Vistula River and related flood defenses, active protection through the construction of dry polders and the upgrade of a system of pumping stations. The component is divided into four sub-components, namely: i) Flood protection of Kraków and Wieliczka; ii) Flood protection of Sandomierz and Tarnobrzeg; iii) Passive and active protection in Raba sub-basin; and iv) Passive and active protection in San basin.

d. Component Four: Institutional strengthening and enhanced forecasting (US$167.7 million of which US$88.94 million (53%) is committed). This component aims to selectively support the strengthening of institutional

2 Total commitment here is presented in terms of cumulative value including IBRD, CEB and EU funds. 3 This component, as well as all remaining components include loan financing from IBRD and CEB, as well as EU grants co-financing. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

capacity in priority areas and has been disaggregated into two sub-components namely: (i) the improvement and modernization of the flood and drought monitoring and warning system; and (ii) the development of operational centers in Wroclaw and Krakow, implemented by IMGW. While this component has shown slow progress over time, proactive actions have been taken to ensure the achievement of the expected development objectives and accelerate implementation. These include final review and decision on the location of new measurement stations including monitoring of inflows on reservoirs, and reinforcement of the PIU through the appointment of additional technical staff within IMGW in charge of day-to-day implementation as well as a dedicated PIU coordinator.

e. Component Five: Project management and studies (US$113.10 million of which US$89.22 million (78%) is committed). This component is providing support to the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) operations, overall project management, and technical assistance teams that support the PCU and Project Implementation Unit (PIU) operations, including incremental operating costs. Currently, the component has eleven (11) technical assistance contracts under implementation providing support to the PIUs for the implementation of individual works contracts. This component now includes activities related to the development of a reservoir which would not only reduce flood risk but would also increase the protection of the population residing in the Wisloka River valley my mitigating the impacts of acute drought by securing water during low water flows.

Performance of the implementing entities in terms of fiduciary, safeguards, and monitoring and evaluation are summarized as follows:

f. Fiduciary Performance. The current financial management rating is ‘Satisfactory’. The Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) have been submitted in a timely and quality manner. There are no overdue audit reports, and these too have been submitted on time. Procurement processes have experienced significant delays over time, resulting in stagnant implementation, with differentiating performance from different PIUs. These delays are attributed to: (i) the learning curve in the use of IBRD Procurement Guidelines; (ii) under staffing and inadequate capacity in some PIUs; (iii) inadequate readiness of sites for civil works attributed to ongoing or delayed RAP progress; (iv) long lead times for readiness due to lack of detailed designs; (v) enhanced demand for quality and scrutiny of consultant’s deliverables; and (vi) inadequate capacity among consultants for safeguard assessments. Other delays include the initial disbursement into the Special Account of Euro 53.56 million (11.66%) in September 2016, followed by a next disbursement only in 2019. Albeit delays, progress has been made in tendering procedures with several contracts signed, as well as new bidding procedures launched and expected to be signed before end of 2020. Despite the limited readiness at appraisal and subsequent delays in the launching of procurement processes, proactive actions have been taken to accelerate implementation by streamlining procurement processing, with assistance from the Bank. An internal audit of the various administrative bottlenecks in preparing bidding documentation and launching procurement processes was conducted, and as a result, the PCU and the PIUs have adopted an agile approach that has allowed the acceleration of technical design preparation including contract processing and subsequently project implementation.

g. Safeguards Performance. The current overall safeguards rating is ‘Moderately Satisfactory’. The environmental and social safeguards have been implemented in line with the requirements of the POM and the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), and the work on establishing regular monitoring and reporting systems has been finalized by the respective Project Implementation Units (PIUs) and the Project Coordination Unit (PCU). However, a number of complaints regarding stakeholder engagement and the quality of environmental and social assessments, were received from NGOs and private The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

stakeholders, and registered with the Inspection Panel. On December 17, 2019, the panel in their findings noted that while the Requesters and the Requests meet the technical eligibility criteria set forth in the Resolution that established the Inspection Panel, based on their observations and considering the Project’s design and measures taken to address the Requester’s concerns, there was no need for an investigation but encouraged the Government of Poland and the World Bank team to continue strengthening stakeholder engagement. Following this, the PCU and PIUs have reinforced their respective teams and continue to proactively engage with project stakeholders including ensuring that information is communicated in a timely and transparent manner. Future engagement with stakeholders has been reshaped and as a result, multiple changes in the PCU and the PIU undertaken, including the deployment of a communications specialist, as well as the proactive, rather than reactive approach in relation to public engagement.

Rationale for Restructuring

7. As a result of various institutional and organizational challenges, including the consolidation of water management institutions in Poland and subsequent capacity gaps and disruptions to the PCU and the PIUs, major delays in project implementation were attested. Some of the project’s key activities, at current standing, are at risk of not being successfully completed within the implementation period if no proactive measures are undertaken.

8. The MTR identified challenges, including limited project readiness and capacity to execute activities; staffing gaps at the PCU and the PIUs leading to meagre performance, sluggish implementation progress and disbursements; ineffective engagement with key project stakeholders; need to prioritize activities with high level of readiness for implementation and consequently, to revise the Results Framework aligned with the altered scope of work and prioritization of project activities. The MTR also reassessed the future investment needs in Poland, in light of the prolonged drought events that have intensified in recent years. As a result, additional activities have been identified for inclusion in OVFMP. Such activities would be used to inform future engagements in Poland and would provide a strategic and systematic approach towards drought management and the implementation of green solutions for water retention.

9. The continuing COVID-19 pandemic has also affected responses to ongoing bidding procedures and slowed down environmental and safeguard assessments since implementation teams are not able to undertake full public consultations through normal channels. Many of these procedures are being undertaken remotely through remote online approaches which typically take more time and effort. In spite of these challenges, the Government teams continue to process all the required documentation to ensure that as the situation improves, project implementation continues to further advance over the next few months with additional contracts finalized and disbursements therein.

10. In the lead up to the Project’s Mid-Term Review, project implementation bottlenecks were identified, together with related actions needed to improve implementation progress, and accelerate disbursement rates. The Government of Poland has already implemented the following actions to improve performance: a. The PCU and the PIUs have been reinforced with additional technical and operational staff, in charge of the day-to-day project implementation; b. proactive contract management and streamlined administrative processes were undertaken; c. robust monitoring tools were deployed, including Microsoft Office Project to ensure the achievement of the expected project results and to monitor environmental outcomes more closely; d. innovative solutions have been sourced by some of the PIUs, including the deployment of UAVs to perform aerial survey of proposed investment site and collection of orthophoto and topographic data to fast-track designing processes; The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

e. tasks for which technical designs were yet to be prepared and predetermined implementation timeframes exceeded the project closing date, have been dropped. These have been replaced by new activities with high readiness and similar contribution to the project development objectives, as well as preparation of investment plans that will include prioritized interventions to address current and emerging issues in Poland such as water security and drought mitigation, and green infrastructure solutions for sustainable water resources management. The inclusion of new high readiness activities would ensure the uptick of disbursement rates.

11. Following the MTR, a restructuring has been proposed to formalize the adjustments and assure the completion of all revised activities and the achievement of the PDO within the project lifetime. Through this restructuring, it is proposed to make changes to the Results Framework (RF), by rephrasing indicators to more accurately collect information and report on the achievement of intermediate and final results. The updated RF would also consider a number of activities proposed to be dropped, and replaced by high-readiness activities, as well as proposed changes in activity scope for some and related costs, as summarized below:

o Under Component 1, activities related to the restauration of the Miedzyodrze wetland; the Chlewice- Porzecze – backwater embankment of the Odra River and Myśla River; Improving of flood water-flow during winter from Dabie Lake are proposed to be dropped as a result of delayed procurement processes and lack of evidence-base in enhancing flood protection (Miedzyodrze wetland). Moreover, proposed changes include the abandonment of the border railway bridge reconstruction related to the improvement of icebreaker condition, as a result of feedback collected through stakeholder engagement. New activities related to the Flood protection of Odrzanskie; flood protection of Slubice are proposed for inclusion. o Under Component 2, Flood protection of Ścinawka River Valley proposed to be dropped and replaced with activities focused on passive protection only in urban areas within the Nysa Klodzka Valley. Those changes are proposed as a result of incorporated feedback through stakeholder consultations in Kłodzko Valley, as well as additional analytical studies, to ensure the achievement of the development objective, as well as timely implementation of activities. o Under Component 3, an activity related to the Raba programme, dry polders and other structures are proposed to be dropped as a proactive measure to ensure the timely completion of flood protection measures of the Upper Vistula. The dropped activity is proposed to be replaced with a high readiness and priority activity related to flood protection in the Commune of Gorzyce. o Under Component 4, a number of activities related to TA assistance and modernization of IT equipment are suggested to be dropped as a result of delayed procurement processes, and due to increased internal capacity of IMGW over time. An activity related to the preparation of RBMPs would also be executed internally, with support from Polish Waters, and is suggested to be removed from the results framework. o Under Component 5, one TA activity is suggested to be dropped and replaced with tasks related to the development of CBAs, environmental assessments, technical designs, as well as additional studies necessary to lay the foundation for future water security in Poland, while addressing emerging issues related to acute drought. As an example, feasibility studies would be developed to explore the water retention capacities of the Kąty-Myscowa reservoir.

12. Through this restructuring, strategic activities related to the preparation of conceptual studies on flood protection and the integration of nature-based solutions which would involve the prioritization of investments, or so-called Masterplans, are to be included and fast tracked. The investment prioritization plans would identify strategic priority areas to be implemented in the near future by the Government of Poland, with assistance from international donors, The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

aiming to ensure water security in Poland and address emerging needs in the face of climate change, also tackling issues related to drought mitigation.

13. Lastly, the institutions responsible for water management in Poland have been reformed over the last two years and its therefore important that these changes be reflected in the different project documents (Legal agreement and POM) through this restructuring. The detailed institutional changes are outlined below.

II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES

14. This Restructuring Paper proposes to make the following changes in order to achieve the project development objectives within the agreed project timeframe: (i) changes in Activities and Costs; (ii) changes in the Implementing Agency and (iii) revisions to the Results Framework. This is the first restructuring of the project and it responds to the request letter dated May 26, 2020 from the Ministry of Finance of Poland.

A. Change in Activities and Costs

15. Aligned with the proposed changes in the scope of works, the costs allocated to the five components4 will be revised to reflect the changes in the inclusion of new activities. The GoP is proposing the exclusion of activities which would not be completed within the current project timeframe and are at risk of not achieving the expected development outcomes. These activities would not lead to any changes in the project description and are proposed for replacement with activities showcasing a high level of readiness and preparedness for implementation. Those activities have already been considered under the OVFMP’s safeguards instruments and have acquired the necessary administrative permits (environmental, construction, administrative, water etc.) and fulfill the eligibility criteria, including from a safeguards and technical perspective, for their inclusion into the OVFMP, hence would ensure the achievement of intermediate and final project results until closure. Moreover, the prioritization of such high-readiness activities would ensure an acceleration of disbursement rates, and hence improved implementation progress. A detailed updated list of all project activities indicating how: i) disbursement estimates would be accelerated in 2020 and 2021; ii) ongoing works would be implemented and a number of activities would be dropped; and iii) planned future activities will be committed throughout the duration of the OVFMP; are summarized in Annex I. These proposed changes would re-allocate the costs of activities within each Component, leaving the total costs per Component unchanged.

16. Table 1 summarizes the level of commitments of funds, per Component. The uncommitted funds have been presented in Annex I, in terms of the estimated value of contracts not yet signed, allocated funds for land acquisition and end fees and the current status of readiness.

Table 1. Commitments of Funds for OVFMP 1,3 USD = 1 EURO = 4,16 PLN Contract Status of / Allocated Uncommitte Committed in plan for Allocated IBRD Disbursed d Component [USD Progress utilization of [USD million] [USD IBRD [USD] [USD million] [USD uncommitted million] million] million] funds

4 Note that no changes in the Components are expected, but only to the activities supported under each Component. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Original PAD Original Value of Value of Estimation Amount allocation PAD signed signed value of disbursed total Project allocation contracts 5– contracts contracts from the loan cost (only for being in not signed commitment IBRD) progress yet 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7=2-4 8 Flood Protection of 1 Lower and Middle 542 221,00 177,71 177,70 465,79 Odra River Flood Protection of 2 290 119,60 195,70 195,70 148,80 Nysa Klodzka Valley Flood Protection of 3 242 92,30 109,38 99,97 177,92 see table 3 – Upper Vistula 88,940 Institutional Annex 1

4 Strengthening & 141 89,70 167,70 - - Enhanced Forecasting Project Management 5 95 68,90 89,22 88,94 23,88 and Studies front-end fee* 7 6,50 0,00 0,00 6,50 TOTAL 1317 598,00 572,01 88,940 562,31 990,59

B. Changes in Implementing Agency Arrangements

17. At appraisal, 9 (nine) PIUs were established7 to carry out the preparation and implementation of project activities, alongside the PCU. The PIUs were consequently reduced to 8 (eight), and following the establishment of Polish Waters, additional changes to the implementation arrangements were made, by consolidating six (6) of the PIUs into three (Wroclaw, Krakow and Szczecin), bringing the total number of PIUs to-date to five (5). As a result of the water sector reorganization, and the subsequent consolidation of PIUs, major delays in project implementation were attested. Effective January 1, 2020, the PCU - the Coordination Unit referred to in the Loan Agreement - was integrated into Polish Waters.

18. Aligned with the proposed structural changes to the PIUs and the PCU as a result of the establishment of Polish Waters and the new Water Law, an amendment to the Loan Agreement is proposed. These changes are necessary to reflect the institutional changes and would necessitate revisions to be made in the Project documents, including the POM, to allow for funds transfer from the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to Polish Waters, under the OVFMP.

C. Revisions to the Results Framework

19. The results framework will be revised to include updates to the targets and measurement of key PDO and intermediate indicators. Proposed changes aim to ensure robustness in data collection for intermediate and PDO-level indicators as well as timely delivery and accountability of results by the project closing date of December 15, 2023. The table below provides a summary of the proposed changes and rationale.

5 This amount includes funds spent on land acquisition and front fee 6 This amount includes funds planned to be spent for land acquisition and for end fees 7 RZGWs in Wrocław and Szczecin, and ZMiUWs of the Voievodes of West Pomerania, Dolnośląskie, Małopolskie, Podkarpackie, Swiętokrzyskie, and Lubuskie, and IMGW Kraków The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

20. There are no changes to the PDO and the Closing Date will not be extended.

III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES

Changed Not Changed Implementing Agency ✔ Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S)

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_IA_TABLE IMPLEMENTING AGENCY

Implementing Agency Name Type Action Ministry of Environment Implementing Marked for Deletion Agency Ministry of Interior and Administration Implementing No Change Agency

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Component 1: Flood Protection Component 1: Flood Protection 542.00 Revised 542.00 of the Middle and Lower Odra of the Middle and Lower Odra Component 2: Flood Protection Component 2: Flood Protection 290.00 Revised 290.00 of the Nysa Kłodzka Valley of the Nysa Kłodzka Valley Component 3: Flood Protection Component 3: Flood Protection 242.00 Revised 242.00 of the Upper Vistula of the Upper Vistula Component 4: Institutional Component 4: Institutional strengthening and Enhanced 141.00 Revised strengthening and Enhanced 141.00 Forecasting Forecasting Component 5: Project Component 5: Project 95.00 Revised 95.00 management and studies management and studies TOTAL 1,310.00 1,310.00

. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

.

Results framework COUNTRY: Poland ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT

Project Development Objectives(s) The project development objectives are to increase access to flood protection for people living in selected areas of the Odra Riverand the Upper Vistula River basins and to strengthen the institutional capacity of the Borrower to mitigate the impact of floods more effectively.

Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes

RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4 5 6 To increase access to flood protection for people living in selected project areas Direct project 0.00 12,400,000.00 beneficiaries (Number) Female beneficiaries 0.00 100.00 (Percentage) Total area benefiting from enhanced protection and 0.00 0.00 3,341.00 15,486.00 31,278.00 51,332.00 69,447.00 81,626.00 operational forecasts (Hectare(Ha))

Rationale: To standardize the methodology for calculating the value of this indicator, it is proposed to change its name from "Total area in the 1% flood plain benefiting from Action: This indicator has enhanced protection and operational forecasts" to “Total area benefiting from enhanced protection and operational forecasts” and to adopt a calculation method been Revised based on the total area of the counties (powiats) where a flood protection investment has been implemented and also those counties where a completed investment will have an impact on enhanced flood protection. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4 5 6

Total Population benefiting from enhanced protection and 0.00 12.40 operational forecasts (Number)

Rationale: No change in the name of the indicator is proposed, but rather on the methodology for measuring it. Action: This indicator has To standardize the methodology for calculating the value of the indicator „Total population benefiting from enhanced protection and operational forecasts” at the been Revised Project level, it is proposed to adopt a calculation method based on the total population number of the counties (powiats) where a flood protection investment has been implemented and also those counties where a completed investment will have an impact on enhanced flood protection.

Flood Operation Centers established and 0.00 2.00 functional (Number) PDO Table SPACE

Intermediate Results Indicators by Components

RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4 5 6 Component 1: Flood Protection of the Middle and Lower Odra Length of enhanced protection in the 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.90 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 Zachodniopomorskie The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4 5 6 Province (Component 1A) (Kilometers) Modernizing and reconstructing the middle and lower Odra No Yes river – Number of groynes”. (Yes/No)

Rationale: This component has undergone changes in the scope of work, with the inclusion of one additional contract (1.B.8). Hence, it is proposed to rephrase the indicator Action: This indicator has from "Modernizing and reconstructing the middle and lower Odra river systems to upgrade to a Class III waterway ", in order to reflect more accurately the been Revised investments that would be financed to: “Modernizing and reconstructing the middle and lower Odra river – Number of groynes”.

Extension and construction of flood 0.00 12.80 embankments to protect Slubice City (Kilometers) Component 2: Flood Protection of the Nysa Kłodzka Valley Construction of dry polders in the Nysa 0.00 4.00 Klodzka Valley (Number) Length of enhanced protection in the Nysa 0.00 177.00 Klodzka Valley (Kilometers)

Rationale: Action: This indicator has Sub-component 2B has undergone changes in the scope of work. Therefore, it is proposed to improve the methodology of values calculation as a length of sections been Revised where river training works will be carried out in the Nysa-Klodzka Valley. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4 5 6

Component 3: Flood Protection of the Upper Vistula Construction of dry polders to protect Upper 0.00 3.00 Vistula towns and Krakow (Number) Length of enhanced protection for 0.00 46.34 Sandomierz and Tarnobrzeg (Kilometers) Length of enhanced protection for the San 0.00 1.60 Sub-basin (Kilometers) Length of enhanced protection for the Raba 0.00 19.77 Sub-basin (Kilometers, Custom) (Kilometers)

Rationale: Action: This indicator has An activity related to the Raba programme, dry polders and other structures are proposed to be dropped as a proactive measure to ensure the timely completion been Marked for of flood protection measures of the Upper Vistula. Deletion

Component 4: Institutional strengthening and Enhanced Forecasting Flash flood systems for sub-basins operational 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 (Number) Component 5: Project management and studies The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1 2 3 4 5 6 Investment Prioritization Plans, including the preparation of pre-design 0.00 2.00 and design documentation (Number)

Rationale: Component 4C has been dropped from the OVFMP. It is proposed to restructure this as an indicator that would allow Component 5 to be monitored, changed from Action: This indicator has "RBMPs or Investment Prioritization Plans drafted for Vistula sub-basins" to “Investment Prioritization Plans, including the preparation of pre-design and design been Revised documentation [Number]”.

% of project supported investments informed by citizen feedback through 10.00 100.00 consultations (disaggregated by gender) (Percentage)

Rationale: It is proposed to rephrase this indicator from "% of project-supported RBMPs and investments informed by citizen feedback through consultations" to ‘% of project Action: This indicator has supported investments informed by citizen feedback through consultations (disaggregated by gender)’. This indicator is calculated as a % of consultations through been Revised the project entire timeline.

IO Table SPACE

. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Annex 1: Disbursement Estimates and Implementation Status of Activities (Ongoing, Dropped, Future)

Table 2: Disbursement Estimates Year 2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Amount in million US$ 0 17.5 5.2 13 45.3 14.63 19 50.1 Subtotal per year 35.75 180.25

Table 3: Ongoing Activities8 Activity Activity Amount in million US$ Implementation Contract Contract (Contract ref. Description amount of estimated cost status signing completion no) signed contract date Component 1 1A.6 0.03 Ongoing 1/20/2020 Completed 1B.1/1a 34.09 Ongoing 11/19/2019 03.2023 1B.4/1 29.35 To be dropped 07.2021 12.2022

1B.6/1 45.06 Ongoing 9/20/2019 05.2023 1B.6/2 31.12 Ongoing 9/20/2019 05.2023 1B.7 28.74 Ongoing 3/19/2020 02.2022 Component 2 2A.1/1 52.14 Ongoing 12/6/2017 02.2022 2A.1/2 61.17 Ongoing 10/4/2017 08.2021 2A.2/1 46.29 Ongoing 4/16/2018 11.2022 2A.2/2 25.49 Ongoing 4/16/2018 11.2022 2B.1/2 22.62 To be dropped 02.2021 05.2023 Component 3 3A.3 6.02 Ongoing 1/21/2020 05.2022 3B.1 26.08 Ongoing 8/8/2017 12.2020 3B.1/1 34.79 Ongoing 1/29/2020 08.2021 3B.2 23.40 Ongoing 3/22/2019 12.2020 3B.3 9.41 Completed 12/29/2016 30.05.2018 3D.1 7.81 Ongoing 12/31/2019 03.2021 Component 4 4A.1.7 0.07 Dropped 04.2022 10.2022 4A.1.10b 1.30 Dropped 03.2021 02.2022 4A.1.11 0.30 Dropped 12.2019 06.2023 4A.1.12 2.60 Dropped 09.2020 08.2023

8 This table also include all activities that were dropped, due to delays in implementation. Those activities are highlighted in green, and also labeled as dropped under “Implementation status”. The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

4A.1.13 0.26 Dropped 04.2021 12.2022 4A.4.4a 1.69 Dropped 06.2020 04.2021 4A.4.4b 1.50 Dropped 06.2021 04.2022 4A.5.5_a1 1.04 Dropped 02.2021 08.2022 4A.5.5_a2 0.98 Dropped 02.2020 08.2022 Component 5 5.1 10.76 Ongoing 02.2020 12.2023 5.2 19.22 Ongoing 7/19/2017 07.2023 5.3 9.18 Ongoing 3/16/2017 08.2023 5.3a 0.09 Ongoing 4/24/2019 07.2021 5.4 48.43 Ongoing 11/9/2016 05.2023 5.5b 6.50 Dropped 03.2019 05.2023 5.6 1.38 Ongoing 12/7/2018 01.2021 5.7.1 3.73 Ongoing 4/25/2019 04.2021 5.9 0.15 Ongoing 12/2/2019 06.2023

Table 4: List of contracts and activities under preparation Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date Flood protection of Gryfino, Ognica and Piasek village on Odra Designs and BD under October December 1A.2 River. 7,41 Under preparation preparation 2020 2022 Modernization of Marwicki polder stage III – pump station Krajnik Implementation of works involving the completion Procurement notice September 1A.4 of flood embankment 5,42 Tender ongoing published on March June 2020 2021 Chlewice, Marwice – 30, 2020 Krajnik, Mniszki - Gryfino. Reconstruction of the road bridge in Krosno Designs and BD under December 1B.1/1 (b) 11,7 Under preparation May 2023 Odrzańskie with access preparation 2020 road Under preparation / prequalification Modernization works on cancelled; based on boundary sections of Odra Under preparation the PQ process December 1B.2 River, Stage I To provide 161,01 / prequalification March 2021 experience, 2022 Good Condition for Ice – cancelled qualification criteria breaking. will be revised in the BD The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date Stage I – Mooring base for Designs and BD under November December 1B.3/1 6,68 Under preparation icebreakers preparation 2020 2021 Stage II - The construction of docking-mooring infrastructure on Lower Designs and BD under December December 1B.3/2 Odra River and on 6,68 Under preparation preparation 2020 2021 boundary sections of Odra River as well as new aids to navigation Procurement notice published on Dredging of Klucz-Ustowo December 1B.4/2 3,3 Tender ongoing February 28, 2020; July 2020 ditch 2021 One Bid submitted. Under evaluation. Reconstruction of bridge Prequalification to ensure a minimum Prequalification completed. Designs 1B.5/1 clearance - Railway bridge 70,37 April 2021 April 2023 launched and BD under km 733,7 Regalica River in preparation Szczecin Reconstruction of bridge to ensure a minimum Designs and BD under February December 1B.5/2 clearance - Road bridge 33,79 Under preparation preparation 2021 2022 km 2,45 River, Kostrzyn n/Odra Reconstruction of bridge to ensure a minimum clearance (Railway bridge Designs and BD under February December 1B.5/3 8,06 Under preparation at km 615.1 of the Odra preparation 2021 2022 River in Kostrzyn nad Odrą) Designs completed. Flood protection of New task/ BD December December 1B.8 27,34 BD under Krosno Odrzańskie under preparation 2020 2022 preparation. Extension and construction of flood Procurement notice 1C.2 embankments and 46,44 Tender ongoing published on July 2020 January 2023 Reconstruction of Czarny February 11, 2020 Kanał and Racza Struga Flood protection of cities along Nysa Kłodzka river: Under Under preparation; November December 2B.1/1 Kłodzko, Bystrzyca 27,3 preparation; change of scope 2021 2022 Kłodzka, Długopole Zdrój, Międzylesie Flood protection of cities along Biała Lądecka river: Under Under preparation; November December 2B.2/1 14,3 Stronie Śląskie, Lądek preparation; change of scope 2021 2022 Zdrój The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date Flood protection of cities along Bystrzyca Dusznicka Under preparation; November December 2B.2/2 23,4 Under preparation river: Polanica Zdrój, change of scope 2021 2022 Szczytna, Duszniki Zdrój. Procurement notice Modernization of Vistula December 3A.1 46,74 Tender ongoing published on April 3, June 2022 embankments in Cracow 2020 2020 Flood protection in Serafa Designs and BD under 3A.2 Valley - Malinówka 2 10,53 Under preparation April 2021 June 2022 preparation reservoir Flood protection in Serafa Designs and BD under September 3A.2/3 Valley - Malinówka 3 3,32 Under preparation June 2022 preparation 2021 reservoir Flood protection in Serafa Designs and BD under 3A.2/4 Valley – Serafa 2 2,38 Under preparation July 2021 June 2022 preparation reservoir. Extension of a section of the right embankment downstream of the Dąbie Designs and BD under 3A.4 Barrage, including 8,31 Under preparation March 2021 June 2022 preparation development of a flood gate in the area of a repair yard Development of a flood gate at the left flood embankment in the area Designs and BD under 3A.5 6,28 Under preparation March 2021 May 2022 of water intakes for the preparation Sendzimira Steel Mill in Cracow Construction of a pumping station for mobile pumps Designs and BD under January 3A.6 1,4 Under preparation February 2022 to drain the Lesisko preparation 2021 complex Construction of the right Procurement notice embankment of the Biala 3D.2/1 1,98 Tender ongoing published on July 2020 March 2021 River in the City of February 27, 2020 Tarnów. Expansion of the left and right embankment of the Designs and BD under 3D.2/2 Biala River in the Tarnow 28,24 Under preparation March 2021 June 2022 preparation Municipality and the City of Tarnow. Łęg IV – extension of the left river embankment at Designs completed. New task/ BD December December 3D.3 chainage km 0+082-5+030 23,97 BD under under preparation 2020 2022 within the Commune of preparation. Gorzyce, and of the right The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date embankment at chainage km 0+000-5+236 within the Commune of Gorzyce Modernization and extension of the Telemetry System for November 4A.1.1 hydrological modeling and 49,65 Under preparation Under preparation July 2022 2020 forecasting, including radiative data and connection provision Provision of personal protective equipment and February 4A.1.2 maintenance tools, for 0,78 Under preparation Under preparation August 2022 2022 maintenance and measurement teams Provision of land means of transport for February September 4A.1.3 2,04 Under preparation Under preparation measurement and 2022 2022 maintenance teams Provision of hydrometric February 4A.1.4 2,86 Under preparation Under preparation July 2022 measurements equipment 2022 Provision of water September September 4A.1.5 transport means for river 0,65 Under preparation Under preparation 2021 2022 measurements Provision of land February 4A.1.6 0,52 Under preparation Under preparation August 2022 surveying equipment 2022 Modernization of uninterrupted power supply systems at the hydrometeorological February 4A.1.8 stations, the weather 0,65 Under preparation Under preparation February 2023 2022 radars and the Central Laboratory of IMGW-PIB for Measuring Instruments Modernization of the November 4A.1.9 Aerological Measurement 4,81 Under preparation Under preparation October 2022 2020 Stations New workstations for checking/calibration of sensors and December 4A.1.10a 0,65 Under preparation Under preparation April 2021 modernization of the 2022 current equipment of CLAP IMGW-PIB-PIB Modernization and December 4A.2 expansion of the 2,73 Under preparation Under preparation August 2021 2022 monitoring and The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date forecasting system to enhance the hydro meteorological flood protection of the coastal areas Procurement notice POLRAD Weather Radar 4A.3.1 27,66 Tender ongoing published on October June 2020 June 2023 Modernization 28, 2019 Modernization of the September 4A.3.2 lightning detection 1,37 Under preparation Under preparation May 2020 2022 network (PERUN) High Performance January November 4A.4.1 19,37 Under preparation Under preparation Computer 2022 2022 Modernization of ICT November 4A.4.2 1,63 Under preparation Under preparation August 2021 Infrastructure 2020 Procurement notice Personal Productivity and October 4A.4.3a 3,25 Tender ongoing published on March July 2021 Office Equipment - Part 1 2020 31, 2020 Personal Productivity and November 4A.4.3b 0,65 Under preparation Under preparation August 2021 Office Equipment - Part 2 2020 Modernisation and implementation of IT systems supporting the operational work of the Procurement notice December 4.B.1/1 Operational Centers in 20,05 Tender ongoing published on April 8, July 2020 2022 Krakow and Wroclaw 2020 together with supplies of necessary hardware and software. Modernisation and implementation of hydrological, control and teletechnical November December 4.B.1/2 40 Under preparation Under preparation measurement systems at 2020 2022 hydrotechnical facilities of RZGW Krakow and RZGW Wroclaw. Operational Centers in Krakow and Wroclaw - September 4.B.1/3 Telecommunication 4,76 Under preparation Under preparation January 2022 2020 connections to hydrotechnical facilities Operational Centers in Krakow and Wroclaw - September 4B.1/4 0,7 Under preparation Under preparation April 2022 Digital dispatching 2020 communication system The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date for hydrotechnical facilities PCU Monitoring and evaluation of project December 5.1 impact Supervision of 24,47 Management cost. Under preparation 2023 EMP, RAP and Procurement December 5.7.2 Other Documents 10,58 Under preparation Under preparation April 2021 2022 December 5.8 Other Studies 27,74 Under preparation Under preparation April 2021 2022 Kąty-Myscowa Update of the technical solutions concept for the construction of a The task concerns the reservoir, including e.g.: New task/ BD preparation of a November 5.8.1 1,3 June 2020 results of hydraulic under preparation priority investment 2020 modelling dated 2019, for implementation previously identified geological conditions, and their potential update Kąty Myscowa Development of surface archaeological survey, including determination of a potential range of New task/ BD January 5.8.2 0,38 Under preparation June 2021 archaeological recovery under preparation 2021 excavations prior to implementation of the investment, along with sapper survey Kąty-Myscowa Development of local spatial development plans for the area covering the reservoir’s bowl and areas needed for resettlements within the Commune of New task/ BD December 5.8.3 0,62 Under preparation May 2022 Nowy Żmigród and the under preparation 2020 Commune of Krempna, or of a decision on location of the public purpose investment, Study of Spatial Management Conditions And Directions The World Bank ODRA-VISTULA FLOOD MANAGEMENT PROJECT (P147460)

Estimated Contract Contract Contract Contract name gross cost Status completion Ref. No. signing USD million date Kąty-Myscowa Development of the Land Acquisition and Resettlement Action Plan New task/ BD 5.8.4 with estimated evaluation 1,25 Under preparation July 2021 June 2022 under preparation of land properties and vegetation, and with land replacement documentation Kąty-Myscowa Development of a cost New task/ BD October 5.8.5 and benefits analysis for 0,47 Under preparation June 2023 under preparation 2022 implementation of the investment Kąty-Myscowa Development of the New task/ BD February 5.8.6 0,47 Under preparation February 2023 Environmental under preparation 2022 Management Plan Kąty-Myscowa Development of a construction design and of a detailed design, including bills of quantities and estimates for the reservoir, along with: protection of landslips, design of a fish New task/ BD 5.8.7 6,25 Under preparation May 2022 June 2023 pass, access roads, design under preparation for demolition of 250 buildings, design for relocation of a church, and designs for demolition of technical facilities, including obtainment of administrative decisions RAP costs and contingency 139,43 front - end fees 6,5

Total estimation cost of, USD million 844,66 TOTAL 990,59