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"Earthquake Hazards at Proposed Bodega Head Reactor."

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_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .- _ _____ __ _ f - - - - - . - . ~ . JTo' c.2OS~ DRAFT REPORT EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS , .Fdy Co;m '/ | .- ,, , PROPOSED EODEGA ESAD REACTOR , , , ;. Karl V. Steinbrugge ' i! GEOLOGIC CONSIDERATIONS Proximity to the San Andreas Fault: 4 The earthquake engineering design has to consider the proximity of the San . Andreas fault in addition to potential movement on auxiliary faults (such as the Shaft fault). The location of the facility is generally agreed to be about 1,000 feet west of . the west edge of the San Andreas fault zone;' this zope is about 1-1/2 miles wide *here. The surface faulting in the 1906 earthquake took place near the eastern side of the zone. - There is more than ample evidence from observations made in many earth- * . quakes that certain types of man-made structures can survive with little or no damage I when not astride the fault break. The author has extensively field studied the 1959 - Hebgen Lake carthquake, and other earthquakes wis surface faulting, having this j ' ) problem in mind. There are differences of opinion among engineers regarding the . , f 1 * , amount of the earthquake design force, but not whether a structure can success' fully I resist earthquake forces adjacent to a fault. Shaft Fault: , . The numerous extensive reports by the U. S. Geological Survey and the ! l Pacific Gas and Electric Company dealing with the Shaft fault and the site bedrock are ' \ based on the same observed data, but these studies reach rather opposing conclusions. | . 8709230506 B51217 - PDR FOIA - FIRESTOB5-665 PDR - , - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - -._m. - , . - c C. .. - .' ' , . The U. S. Geological Survey concluded, in a draft abstract dated May 7,1964, . .that the expected total displacement in any direction in the event of an 8. 5 magnitude . earthquake with its epicenter at Bodega would be in terms.of the following: , < s ., . Displacement of a Fault Probability In Granitic Rock of Shaft 2 inches or less Moderate to high . - Approximately 1 foot Low . Approximately 2 feet Low, lower than above, but still a possibility. * ' Approximately 5 feet Remote The U. S. Geological Survey states in conne etion with the foregoing * conclusions that these conclusions were "perhaps somewhat subjective. " They also - state regarding the Shaft fault: "The maximum measured displacements in the . sediments is 14 inches vertically and in the grantric rocks is at least 24 feet horizon- tally. " The U. S. Geological Survey traced the Shaft fault on the surface for about | 230 feet along a strike of N 40 E. Pacific Gas and Electric Company, in their Amendment #8, concludes on ~ ^ page 1 as follows: ". within the foreseeable future and well beyond the life of the ' i Plant, any movement exceeding a fraction of an inch is extremely unlikely, and any ' movement exceeding one foot is practically impossible, on any of the fractures (or , so-called minor faults) in the granitic rock at the site of the Plant. " They further - state on pages 3 and 4, "The rock of the Bodega Head site has not experienced any { | differential ground movement exceeding a fraction of an inch during at least the last - .- 40,000 years, during which there have been hundreds of large ground movements in the San Andreas fault zone. " _ . ,m-...e.4 e _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ - - . - - - - - xxr;--- - -o _. ..._-. - . _ . _ . _ _ - _ . - _.. %* . .. (~ ( . The Curtis and Evernden letters to Pacific Gas and Electric Company . (February 26, 1964) and to Dr. Glenn Seaborg (April 25, 1964) are important. Professors Curtis and Evernden are respected members of the University of California faculty in Berkeley. Their participation originated from purely professional interest. By their own admission, prior to their visit, both of them were emotionally biased ' against the use of the site by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. However, they concluded after their visits to the site, ". we believ'e that tha total amount of dis- placement of any faults passing through the reactor shaft that has occurred since Pleistocene sedimentary beds were deposited is in the order of one foot. " Also,. based on a major carthquake frequency of 65 years, they believe that, ". the Shaft fault has moved more than once during this time interval with displacements of, say, 4 . inches each time, then the chances are about 1/500 for disruption of the site during the next 200 years. " . Professor Clyde Wahrhaftig, also of the University of California, was asked to resolve, if possibic, the differences of professional opinion between the U. S ' . Geological Survey and Curtis and Evernden. Wahrhaftig's conclusions are at some variance to the others: "The Shaft fault probably has a displacement with a total net . strike-slip component of approximately 24 feet, has moved more than once, and has , moved once in the last 200,000 years with a dip separation of about 1 foot and a strike- slip component of displacement of between 4 inches and 2 feet. " He also states, "There - , is no good statistical basis for making an estimate of future breakage along the Shaft . fault, but a reasonable guess is that the probability lies between 1/50,000 and 1/50, and may be 'about 1/1,000. " (From Wahrhaftig Report, dated April 28, 1964.) * ! Each consultant's basis for the foregoing summarized professional opinion l came from a study of the site, and in some cases included an evaluation of the 1906 - - . ,.e . - - ~m . _ _ _ _ _ _ . - - - - - - . , :.--- . ... :_ . g - -- - -- . ; _; , 3-- ;;-- ,3 , * 'J y f f. , . - ' . ground breakage found elsewhere in and near the San Andreas fault. The reactor site i . has been thoroughly studied by competent geologists, and it seems doubtful if additional ' study by them would change their opinions. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, an influencing factor on the judge- ment decision regarding the possibility of movement on the Shaft fault, or other faults in the reactor pit, is ground breakage and faulting located away from the main 1906 fault rupture as a, result of that earthquake. The writer has experience in this field, having examined faulting and ground breakage from the following earthquakes shortly . , after their occurrence: - , , July 21,1952 White Wolf fault, California July 6, '1954 Raillbow Mountain fault, Nevada . August 23, 1954 . Rainbow Mountain fault, Nevada December 16, 1954 Dixie Valley and Fairview Peak * , |' faults, Nevada . August 17, 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana 1 . In addition, major sections of the San Andreas fault have been visited and | ' - - . t fa'ulting from other earthquakes has been inspected. These field examinations were , made as a part of a team consisting of geologists, seismologists, and engineers. The resulting studies were sufficiently thorough in several cases to allow the publication ) of scientific papers which included maps; enclosed are three maps. It will be noted ;, on these maps that the ground breakage has not been firmly classified as being either ' faulting or a surficial feature. This was because in some instances there were : . - differences of professional opinion as to what constituted faulting and what could be j, - attributed to surficial movements. Therefore, even soon after the event it is not always possibic for competent and experienced observers to properly catalog all i ground breakage; this raises some question regarding the interpretation given to ' _ " h53 g a ,,, . - - e- === - M ' \ ~ ! _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ __-. _ _ _ _ _ _ .-_.__.__.._.L--.... ; , * - - . ( c 1 . * e , present day field studies of obliterated 1906 ground breakage. When examining fresh seround breaks as a result of earthquakes, the inspection teams which the author i has been on usually noted that breakage associated with faulting usually followed features - indicative of previous movements. ^ In view of the foregoing, the writer interprets Table 1 in Schlocker and Bont11a's Report, " Summary'of Engineering Geology of the Proposed Nuclear Power Plant on Bodega Head, Sonoma County, California" (no date) to indicate that the ! { incidence of reasonably well established faulting away from the fault zone is quite i I small. Of the 42 cases of " Branch Surface Ruptures" cited in Table 1, only a small * ) | fraction of the 42 instances are located out of the San Andreas fault zone and are associated with old scarps or sags. In view of the at least 190-mile length of surface breakage on the San Andreas fault in 1906, the knovin number and total length of . auxiliary faulting outside of the San Andreas fault zone is quite small. Undetected cases would, of course, increase the number, but it is very doubtful if many large * displacements were missed. In conclusion, a 1/500 chance of a fault movement at the shaft site during the next 200 years as stated by Curtis and Evernden is, in the writer's opinion, a ... reasonable estimate for engineering design considerations to be discussed in later paragraphs. In the writer's opinion, the three-foot unobstructed radial clearance between . the outside of the reinforced concrete containment structure and the inside of the con- tainment, pit meets the requirements of all credible fault movements through the site. It is the function of the engineering design to provide a safe structure which can , accommodate the maximum movements provided by the three-foot radial clearance. ! ! . *p smw ~ . m. - - ' - - ~~ ~ - r. .- . _ . _ .1 7- . _ . _ _ s.._ _ , , ' *; . _ J' [ , . , 'g'... * , ENGINEERING CONSIDERATIONS- < .
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