Robust performer in times of market turmoil
Gazprom Investor Day February 2009 Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by OJSC Gazprom (the “Company”), and comprises the slides for a presentation to investors concerning the Company. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation, or any other material discussed at any presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation should not be treated as giving investment advice. Care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this presentation are accurate, and that the opinions expressed are fair and reasonable. However, the contents of this presentation have not been verified by the Company. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its members, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in or discussed at this presentation. None of the Company or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts, statements regarding the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies, and the industry in which the Company operates. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the risks and uncertainties to be set forth in the prospectus, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The Company cautions you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. By attending the presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
1 Today’s Speakers
Vlada Rusakova Strategy Member of Gazprom Management Committee Head of Strategic Development Department
Alexander Medvedev Global Energy Markets Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee Director General of Gazprom Export
Sergey Kupriyanov Ukraine Dispute Press Secretary of Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee
Andrey Kruglov Corporate and Financial Overview Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee Head of the Department for Finance and Economics
2 Part 1. Strategy
Vlada Rusakova
Member of Gazprom Management Committee Head of Strategic Development Department Price Conditions Included in Long-Term Strategy
Gazprom’s long-term strategy is based on conservative price scenarios Brent (US$) 120
100 Optimistic forecast zone Actual oil prices
80 $ 80
60 $ 60
$ 45 40 $ 35
Forecast zone for long-term planning 20
$ 45.5 (mean value of actual oil prices) Nominal oil prices
0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: CERA, Company data. 4 Global Energy Consumption
Global energy consumption grows at a stable rate in the long-term
Rate of Energy Consumption and Global Energy Consumption GDP Growth
(%) (mln toe)
10 12 000
10 000 8
8 000 6
6 000
4 4 000
2 2 000
0 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
(2) Energy Consumption Rate Gas Consumption Rate Energy Consumption Gas Consumption GDP Growth Rate
9 Economic cycle influences short-term growth rate of global energy consumption 9 Declines in economic activity do not influence long-term tendencies of energy consumption growth
5 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008. Projections of Global Energy Demand
Global gas demand will continue to grow
Volumes of Global Energy Consumption Structure of Energy Consumption
Energy efficiency and Other energy saving Nuclear Oil 2007 Hydro
Coal
Gas 21%
Other
Nuclear Oil
Population increase, global 2030E Hydro economy growth
Coal Gas 22%-25% 2007 2030E Energy demand Changes in energy demand Gas competitive advantages Large reserves base Factors taken into account in short-term planning Developed infrastructure Factors taken into account in long-term planning Environmentally clean type of fuel 6 Target Markets 2020
Gazprom’s guaranteed contracts and agreements underpin a significant part of future gas demand CIS and Baltic States Market New Markets 15 % 7 %
68%
15% European Market 8 % 29 % Domestic Market 49 %
Contracted volumes and existing agreements New volumes 7 Specifics of Gas Industry
Long-term planning – necessity of gas business
Gas business is characterised by Long life span of production capacities High capital coefficient Slow response of production processes
Consumer contracts ~ 25 – 30 years
Field development period ~ 30 years
Life time of gas transportation facilities ~ 50 years
8 Planning Process in Gazprom
Current planning to meet long-term goals
Development Strategy for 25 YEARS STI (1) OF FIRST Strategic LEVEL planning Program for STI OF SECOND LEVEL
10 YEARS development Feedback DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF GAZPROM
MONITORING AND CONTROLLING (INDICES, STI, KPI) List of priority Indices of Investment Program the Program Medium-term projects and Budget for planning Fact 3 YEARS INVESTMENT PROGRAM BUDGET indices/KPI FOR 3 YEARS FOR 3 YEARS
KPI Investment Program Short-term INVESTMENT PROGRAM Fact and Budget for planning BUDGET 1 YEAR FOR 1 YEAR FOR 1 YEAR indices/KPI
Notes: (1) STI – strategic target indicators. 9 Gas Business: Main Factors of Success
Gazprom – leader in global gas business
Largest Gas Supply System in the World Gazprom’s Reserves – 30 tcm(1), (2)
17 40
60 83
World Russia
Total Russian Resources(1) Accumulated Production Total: 249 tcm 14.7
A+B+C1 47.7
C3+D C2 165.8 20.4
Note: 10 (1) Source: company data, 2007 (2) АВС 1, excluding new licences. Expected Gas Production and Capital Expenditure Programs Gazprom continues investing in business development
Gas Production Capital Expenditure (Annual Average)
(bcm) (Bn RR p.a.) ≥ 620 bcm 800 700
700 600
600 500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0 2008 2015E 2020E 2006-2010E 2011-2015E 2016-2020E
Currently Existing Projects New in Nadym-Pur-Taz Region Exploration Production Transportation Processing Other Shelf Yamal Peninsula
11 Oil Prices vs. Upstream Capital Costs Indices
Market terms for CAPEX reduction
(Index) ($/bbl)
330 140
120 280
100
230 80
60 180
40
130 20 100 80 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Upstream Capital Costs Index (left axis) Oil Price, $/bbl (right axis)
Source: CERA, Gazprom.
9 Significant correlation between oil prices and capital costs means a reduction in CAPEX as a result of falling oil prices 12 Major Projects Development
Major existing pipelines Fields
Yamal-Europe pipeline (Torzhok-Germany section) SRTO-Torzhok pipeline Expansion of gas transportation system in the Urengoi region Kasimovskoye UGSF-CS Voskresensk pipeline CS Sokhranovka-CS Oktyabrskaya pipeline Pochinki-Izobilnoye pipeline (Petrovsk-Frolovo-Izobilnoye section) Gryazovets-Vyborg pipeline Nord Stream project South Stream project Murmansk-Volkhov pipeline Caspian Costal pipeline Pochinki-Gryazovets pipeline Bovanenkovo-Ukhta-Torzhok pipeline
PriorityPriority Projects Projects Production: Transportation: Zapolyarnoye field SRTO – Torzhok (Valanginian deposits) (CS(1) at Ukhta-Gryazovets section) SRTO-Ural Bovanenkovskoe field (CS at Right Khetta-Tayozhnaya (Senoman-Aptian deposits) section) Urengoiskoye field Pochinki-Gryazovets (Achimovsk formation) Nord Stream Shtokmanovskoye field Yamal-Center (Bovanenkovo-Ukhta and Ukhta- Severo-Kamennomisskoye Gryazovets sections) field Murmansk-Volkhov 13 Notes: (1) Compressor Stations. Independent Gas Producers (IGP)
Russian gas industry development program till year 2030 prioritises fields development
Gas Resources in Russia (2007) Gas Consumption in Russia
State Undistributed (bcm) Fund 450 16%
300
IGP 21% 150 63% IGP IGP 0 2008E 2020E
Gas Production in Russia Increase of Independent Producers’ Market Share
(bcm) IGP IGP 600 19.6% 500 20-30% 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2003 2007 2008E 2020E Gazprom IGP
Source: Company data. 14 Current Gazprom Group Structure
Improved management and transparency
GAZPROM Production, GAS BUSINESS transportation, Production processing, storage PRODUCTION
TRANSPORTATION GAZPROM
STORAGE
Distribution PROCESSING
Production, transportation, storage SALES
TRANSITION FROM THE STRUCTURE BASED ON TERRITORIAL PRINCIPLE TO BUSINESS ORIENTED GAZPROM GAZPROM DIVERSIFICATION NEFT ENERGETICA * Notes: * Under construction. 15 Oil Business Development
Gazprom Neft – high business efficiency Gazprom Neft Share in Total Oil Production(1) Refining(1) Gazprom Production(2) (mln t per year) (mln t per year) 9.5%
100 93 100 75 16 76 80 80 9 22 60 46 16 60 48 36 40 40 28 17 50 55 20 46,3 20 40 28 31 0 0 2008 2015E 2020E 2008 2015E 2020E New Fields Russia Abroad Gazprom's Oil Fields Gazprom Neft's Oil Fields 2007
Financial Results 15% Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) – 35% (FY2007) EBITDA per Barrel – 32,2 USD / bbl (9m 2008) Reserves Replacement Ratio - 247% (FY2007) Active development of both Gazprom and Gazprom Neft oil reserves Investment program for oil business development is covered by cash flow of Gazprom Neft
Upstream and Downstream JVs with domestic and international majors 2020E
Notes: 16 (1) Including Gazprom Neft share in equity investees (2) Combined crude oil, natural gas, gas condensate Power Generation Sector
Expected efficiency growth
Generation Capacity Under Control Electricity Demand
(GW) (Bn kilowatt-hour) (1) 50 44,2
40 35,4(1) 1 800 1 605 1 350 30 1 200 1 001 20 12,7 600 10
0 0 2007 2008E 2014E-2020E 2007 2015E 2020E
Major Rational for Entering Energy Business Additional value created Significant sector upside Further vertical integration Liberalisation of electricity market Attractive levels of margin in the sector Guaranteed and growing demand for electricity Revenue stabilisation Entering into related businesses Diversification of product base
Notes: 17 (1) OGK-2, OGK-6, Mosenergo, TGK-1. Gas Business – the Number One Priority for Gazprom
Expected segmentation of group’s net income by 2020 2020
4% 14%
82%
Gas Oil Power
18 Part 2. Global Energy Markets
Alexander Medvedev
Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee of Gazprom, General Director of Gazprom Export International Growth Strategy
Expand export markets’ share, build strong positions in all energy markets Sustaining Market Share • Long-term contracts with take-or-pay SecuringSecuring ExportExport European Market obligations as a base RevenuesRevenues European Market • New opportunities in liberalised market (gas trading, portfolio optimisation) Transition to Market Principles FSUFSU MarketMarket • Market pricing • Access to end-customers • Minimisation of transit risks
ImprovingImproving Reliability Reliability and and • Nord Stream FlexibilityFlexibility of of GasGas • South Stream SuppliesSupplies • Prikaspiysky pipeline • UGSFs
• Vertically Integrated Oil Business (Gazprom Neft & NIS) MarketMarket andand ProductProduct • LNG DiversificationDiversification • Electricity sales • Carbon trade
• Latin America DevelopingDeveloping InternationalInternational • Africa UpstreamUpstream BusinessBusiness • Asia 20 Europe: Traditional Key Market
Strong position in the European market Gazprom Group European Sales Prices and Stable Revenue Source Volumes (1)
Long-term oil-indexed take-or-pay contracts (bcm) 179 US$/mcm 170 170 169 500 Gas supply contracts signed and extended 165 162 400 during the last 2 years 409 160 300 156 Austria 2027 Romania 2030 155 262 269 280 200 192 Croatia 2010 Slovakia 2028 150 100 145 0 Italy 2020 Slovenia 2017 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Volume Average European Price
European Market (2) Gazprom Gas in European Consumption (3)
bcm p.a. 700 2007 2020E 600 500 400 26% 35% 300 200 100 0 2005 2010E 2020E Local Production Net Import Gazprom Other Suppliers
(1) Source: Factual data – company Annual report, Forecasts – management estimates. (2) Source: International Energy Agency, October 2008. 21 (3) Source: Cedigaz and company forecast. Includes only exported volumes. FSU: Transition to Market Principles
Market adjustment to European prices
Topical Issues Gazprom Group FSU Sales Prices and Volumes (1)
(bcm) (US$/mcm) Negotiated formula-based pricing in sales and 140 250 purchase contracts with all FSU countries 120 198 101 101 200 100 Gradual transition to parity with European net-back 88 80 77 75 150 sales prices by 2011 (already accomplished in 111 159 89 60 100 trade with Baltic states) 61 40 Transit agreements based on market principles 50 20
Payment discipline reinforced with Ukraine in the 0 0 new 10-year SPA agreement 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E Volume Average FSU Price
Narrowing the Gap between European and FSU Major Cooperation Projects in Central Asia Prices
100 Gas purchases from Turkmenistan: could reach 70- 80 bcm annually from 2009 to 2028 80 Long-term gas purchases from Uzbekistan from 60 % 2003 to 2012, could reach 30bcm from 2010 40 Cooperation in modernisation of gas transport 20 capacity “Central Asia – Centre” pipeline
0 Agreement for processing and marketing of 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Karachaganak gas from 2007 to 2022, volumes over Average European Price Average FSU Price 7bcm from 2009 22 (1) Source: Factual data – company Annual report, Forecasts – management estimates. Increasing Efficiency and Flexibility of Gas Deliveries
Diversification of transportation routes and usage of underground gas storage facilities
Operational and prospective pipelines and Capacity Length, Start- Project Status main UGSFs in Europe , bcma km up
Operational pipelines
Ukraine 143(1) 1538(2) 1967 needs upgr. Yamal – Europe 33 1258(3) 1999 functional Beltransgas 10(4) 601(2) 1980 functional Blue Stream 16 1213 2003 functional
Humbly Grove Prospective pipelines
Rehden Nord Stream 55 1223 2011 on time South Stream 31-47(5) ~902(6) 2015 on time Haidach E CCP(7) >30(5) >1600(5) 2011 on time
Main underground gas storage facilities Bcm (4) Humbly Grove 0.3 0.25 2005 functional Rehden 4.8 1.0 1993 functional Haidach 1.2 0.87 2007 functional
(1) Estimates of Ukrtransgas. (4) Capacity available to Gazprom. (2) Longest transportation distance. (5) Preliminary data. (3) Belarus + Poland. (6) Subsea part (estimates). (7) Caspian Costal Pipeline. 23 Increasing Efficiency and Flexibility of Gas Deliveries: Nord Stream
Guaranteed export gas supplies through diversification of the transportation routes
Length 1,223km
Capacity (two pipelines) 55 bcm Baltic FINLAND Vyborg NORWAY Sea Operational Start 2011 (first pipeline) Helsinki Capital Investment ~ EUR 7.4 blnSWEDEN(1) St. Peterburg
Stockholm Tallinn Novgorod ESTONIA
Goteborg Aalborg RUSSIA North Sea DENMARK LATVIA Ringkøbing m rea København St rd Esbjerg No LITHUANIA Ownership Structure
BASF 20% Gazprom 51% Greifswald BELARUS E.ON 20% Hamburg 9% Bremen POLAND GERMANY Gasunie
Notes: 24 (1) Offshore section, two pipelines, preliminary estimates. Increasing Efficiency and Flexibility of Gas Deliveries: South Stream
Guaranteed export gas supplies through diversification of the transportation routes
Onshore Part Offshore Part
Intergovernmental Agreements signed with Participants Bulgaria Serbia Gazprom 50% Hungary Greece Eni S.p.A 50% Negotiations with Austria and Slovenia under way
Russia
bcm/year Q.= 31
Length 1300km to Austria, + 990km to Greece Length 902km Capacity 31 – 47 bcm Capacity 31 – 47 bcm Operational Start end of 2014 - 2015 Operational Start end of 2014 - 2015 Estimated Capital Investment EUR 15-20 bln Estimated Capital Investment EUR 4 bln +
25 Market and Product Diversification
Asia-PacificAsia-Pacific NewNew exportexport marketsmarkets forfor RussianRussian pipelinepipeline gasgas andand LNGLNG NorthNorth AmericaAmerica DevelopmentDevelopment ofof gasgas M&TM&T businessbusiness inincludingcluding LNGLNG operationsoperations supportsupport LiquefactionLiquefaction projects:projects: Sakhalin-2 Sakhalin-2 PowerPower generationgeneration andand ShtokmanShtokman projectsprojects inin EuropeEurope asas addedadded valuevalue toto thethe SpotSpot LNGLNG operationsoperations long-termlong-term gasgas salessales New Regions BuildingBuilding LNGLNG PowerPower tradingtrading portfolioportfolio fromfrom otherother operationsoperations inin keykey Power LNG projectsprojects EuropeanEuropean marketsmarkets
NEWNEW MARKETSMARKETS andand SEGMENTSSEGMENTS toto INCREASEINCREASE VALUEVALUE andand DIVERSIFYDIVERSIFY RISKSRISKS CO 2 Retail GasGas suppliessupplies toto end-end- users through WorldwideWorldwide activitiesactivities users through Gazprom’sGazprom’s CDM/JI projects CDM/JI projects subsidiariessubsidiaries andand origination and portfolio Gas Trading origination and portfolio affiliateaffiliate companiescompanies inin management management UK,UK, France,France, Germany,Germany, Italy,Italy, CzechCzech EUA/CER swap deals EUA/CER swap deals Republic,Republic, etc.etc. andand salessales inin EuropeEurope GazpromGazprom tradingtrading companiescompanies registeredregistered inin allall EuropeanEuropean gasgas hubshubs OtherOther regionsregions underunder CurrentCurrent spotspot tradingtrading activitiesactivities inin UK,UK, France,France, Netherlands,Netherlands, BelgiumBelgium considerationsconsiderations TradeTrade volume volume increaseincrease fromfrom 44 toto 2525 bcmbcm inin lastlast 44 yearsyears 26 Market and Product Diversification: LNG – Sakhalin-2 and Shtokman
Shtokman Project Sakhalin-2 Project
Project Potential Extractable reserves (gas, bcm) >600(2) Extractable reserves (crude oil, gas condensate, mln t) >170(2) Phase 1 Participants (1) Current oil production capacity (yearly production) 90,000 bpd
LNG LNG LNG Total 25% Gazprom 51% Project Outlook Statoil Hydro 24% LNG plant start-up February 2009 First LNG cargo March 2009 LNG plant capacity 9.6 mln t 100% LNG contracted Japan, Korea, USA
LNG LNG LNG
Project Potential Gas reserves, tcm 3.7(2) Gas condensate reserves, mln t 31.0(2) Gas production, bcm p.a. 71.0(3)
Project Outlook Project Shareholders Start of pipeline deliveries 2013 Start of LNG supply 2014 Shell 27.5%-1 Gazprom 50%+1 LNG plant capacity 7.5 mln t Mitsui Mitsubishi 12.5% 10%
60
40 bcm 20
0 2013E 2015E 2020E
Notes: 27 (1) Gazprom will continue to hold 100% shares of Sevmorneftegas and all rights for marketing. (2) Russian reserves classification ABC1+C2. (3) Can be potentially extended to 95 bcm p.a. Building International Upstream Business
Strong focus on geographical expansion and building upstream positions globally
Latin America Venezuela • Exploration: • Urumako-1, Urumako-2 Asia India • Oil projects of National Oil • Exploration: Consortium • Block 26 (PSA with GAIL) • Certification: Ayacucho-3 Vietnam • MoU with PDVSA on Blanquilla Este project • Exploration: Blocks 112, 113, 129-132 (LNG) (JV with Petrovietnam) Bolivia • Exploration: • Acero gas project • Sunchal gas project
Africa Libya • Production: 49% in oil concessions С96 and С97 • Exploration: • Licence area 19 (PSA, blocks 1-4) • Licence area 64 (PSA, blocks 1-3) Nigeria • МоU with Ministry of Energy/NNOC Algeria • Exploration: Licence area El Assel — Gazprom’s traditional regions. (blocks 236b, 404a, 405b1) 28 — New regions with upstream positions. Part 3. Ukraine Dispute
Sergei Kupriyanov
Press Secretary of the Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee Reliable Gas Deliveries to Europe
40 Years(1) of Impeccable Operating Track Record
bcm
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
1973 August 1991 1993 1994 August 1998
World Oil Crisis Break-up of the Russian Rouble Crashes Russian Financial Soviet Union Parliamentary Coup Crisis
Despite any crisis Gazprom has always and will in the future fulfil its export obligations
30 Source: Gazprom, International Energy Association, Loanware and Bondware. (1) Total gas sales in foreign markets excluding FSU. Progress in Gas Negotiations in 2009
31 Secured Gas Transit to Europe
Ukrainian dispute settlement
Guaranteed Gas Deliveries to Europe
Kruzenshternskoye Agreement which provides for a transition of Russia-Ukraine
Bovanenkovskoye 18 Shtokmanovskoye gas relationship to transparent European gas pricing R principles starting from 2009 is reached. Negotiations were held BARENTS SEA Jan Vorkuta NORWEGIAN SEA R by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Prime Polyarnyy 2009 Murmansk Minister Julia Timoshenko.
Ukhta Trondheim Arkhangel’sk SWEDEN RUSSIA Y Bergen A W
R O FINLAND Syktyvkar N Two long-term separate contracts of Russian gas transit to Ekaterinburg Oslo Vantaa Vyborg Stockholm RUSSIAN European customers and gas delivery to Ukrainian customers Turku FEDERATION Helsinki Sankt-Peterburg Espoo Perm Tcherepovets in 2009-2019 are signed between Gazprom and Naftogaz. Nord JönköpingStream ESTONIA Gryazovets DENMARK Gotland Novgorod Nizhniy Transit charge: USD1.7 per 1000 cu m per 100 km in 2009, København Liepäga Zlatoust LATVIA Novogord Klaipeda Torzhok Daugavpils MOSCOW transition to market European price starting from 2010. Slupsk LITHUANIA 19 Gdańsk Kaliningrad Orsha Gryazovets Samara Szczecin Yamal-EuropeKaunas Minsk Gas delivery price to Ukraine: common European price Bydgoszcz Kolomna Jan Olsztyn formula with reduction factor as of 0.8 for 2009, transition to Wroclaw BELARUS 2009 Warszawa Ryazan’ market European price starting from 2010. Tula Akhtubinsk POLAND Orel CZECH L’viv Ukraine KИïB Bryansk Separate long-term contracts of Russian gas transit to European SLOVAKIA Kharkov Akhtubinsk AUSTRIA Poltava customers and gas delivery to Ukrainian customers are additional Budapest Elista UKRAINE Lugansk Suceava Zaporizhzhia HUNGARY Novoshakhtinsk guarantee of security of energy supply to European MOLDOVA Elista ROMANIA Mariupol customers. CROATIA Chişnäu Astrakhan Odesa Rostov-na-Donu Stavropol BOSNIA & HERZ. Braşov C A S Bräila Krasnodar P Craiova IA Bucrueşti N Novorossiysk Pleven South Stream S MONTENEGRO Sochi E Sokhumi A Sofia Groznyy Kumanovo BULGARIA Tiranë BLACK SEA GEORGIA MACEDONIA K’ut’alsi AZERBAIJAN 20 ALBANIA Istanbul Hopa R Samsun Blue StreamARMENIA Baku Thessaloniki R Trabzon Koceali Azerbaijan Ukraine resumes gas deliveries to Europe. GREECE Anakara Jan Eskişeher Erzurum R Ardabil Athina TURKEY Tabriz 2009 Izmir Kayseri R IRAN Mersin Şanliurfa 32 Part 4. Corporate and Financial Overview
Andrey Kruglov
Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Management Committee Head of the Department for Finance and Economics Operating Update and Outlook for 2009
Gas Production Total Gas Sales Volumes (1)
(bcm) (bcm) Reduction Reduction 550 scenarios 550 scenarios under under 500 review 500 review
450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300 2007 2008E 2009E 2007 2008E 2009E
Oil and Gas Condensate Production (2) Oil Refining(3)
(mln t) (mln t)
Reduction Reduction scenarios scenario 44 43 46 under 31 26 28 under review review
13 12 14 12 12 13
2007 2008E 2009E 2007 2008E 2009E Gazprom Gazprom Neft Gazprom Gazprom Neft
(1) Head company data, management estimates. 34 (2) Including Gazprom Neft share in equity investees’ production. (3) Gazprom Neft figure for 2009 includes 3,2 mln t at Nafta Industria Serbia (NIS) refineries Current Market Conditions
Brent and Urals Oil Prices Forecast
(US$/bbl) 70 Current budget: $50 Urals 60 $50(1) Urals Alternative budget scenarios: 50 $40, $30, $25 Urals 40 $41(2) Urals Short term resistance to oil 30 $30 Urals $25 Urals price volatility due to long-term 20 contracts structure 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
Brent Urals Source: Bloomberg as of January 27, 2009; average of broker estimates. Positive Effect on Revenue from Hypothetical 1% Rouble Weakening (3)
(RR Bn) 20 Assuming $40 Urals
Total RUB depreciation from (4) 10 November 2008 till now is 23%
Revenue and OpEx are predominantly in different 0 currencies 2009E 2010E 2011E
(1) Budget has been approved by the Board of Directors on 23 December 2008. (2) Minister of Economic Development 2009 oil forecast as of the latest Government session on 19 January 2009. 35 (3) Consolidated figures, preliminary results, annual 1% calculated value of rouble depreciation. (4) As of MICEX rouble exchange rate to dual currency basket from 7 November 2008 till 1 February 2009. Financial Strategy in Times of Market Turmoil
Strategy Guidelines
Operating and Investment Activities Financial Activities
Financial CapEx OpEx Working Capital Debt and Investments Management Management Management Budgeting Cash Pooling Borrowings Management Management
Reduction of Reduction of Self-funding Reduction of financial OpEx Budget scenarios Internal cash Usage of internal accounts management investments receivable based on $25, $30 finance resources and $40 oil price Optimisation of forecasts Projects Projects gas purchasing Payments prioritisation feasibility in Management of monitoring crisis accounts payable Refinancing of environment Cost cutting Optimisation of expensive debts program Execution headcount monitoring Assessment of Reduction of inventories Control over Group opportunity for Reduction of non- borrowings raising funds core activities (advertisement, sponsorship etc.)
Tightening of operating, investment and financial activities of the Group in the context of world economic turmoil 36 Natural Hedging
Revenue Currency Breakdown OpEx Currency Breakdown
(%) (%) 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%
37% 35% 29% 27% 27% 52% 59% 58% 54% 56% 21% 23% 19% 19% 25% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1%
52% 51% 44% 40% 47% 40% 41% 43% 46% 42%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
USD EUR RR Other (1) USD EUR RR Other (1)
Investment Program Currency Breakdown Debt Currency Breakdown
(%) (%) 6% 5% 4% 7% 5% 13% 4% 23% 31% 31% 33% 65% 81% 83% 99% 96% 82% 73% 62% 64% 57% 35% 2% 19% 1% 3% 15%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E USD EUR RR Other (1) USD EUR RR Other (2) Source: Head company, management estimates. 37 Notes: (1) Other includes GBP, BYR, JPY currencies. (2) Other includes SEK and JPY currencies. Robust Debt Strategy
Debt Strategy Debt Maturity Profile (2)
(% of debt) Debt maturity profile: focus on longer maturity 26,6% 24,7% 32,6% 32,8% 34,7% 39,5% Export secured debt: keep to a minimum level(1) 23,1% 39,1% 25,3% 18,7% 31,3% 22,0% 14,4% 12,7% Diversification of debt financing sources 11,6% 9,3% 10,6% 16,6% 36,0% 26,8% 30,3% 33,9% 27,9% Control over cost of debt 19,6%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Н2008 Debt-to-equity ratio of no more than 40% Less that 1 year 1-2 years 2-5 years More that 5 years
1H 2008: Cash Alignment with Short-Term Debt (2), (3) Debt with Fixed and Floating Rate (2), (3)
($ bln) $13,4 bln $13,3 bln 35 30
25
20
15
10
5
0 Cash & cash equivalents + Short-term debt 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 short-term investments Long-term debt (fixed interest rate) Long-term debt (floating interest rate) Short-term debt (fixed interest rate) Short-term debt (floating interest rate) Notes: (1) 2.3% as of 30 June 2008. 38 (2) Excluding promissory notes. (3) Exchange rate as of the end of the respective period. Balanced Approach to Managing Leverage
Improving Leverage Level
1,4x 1,4x 1,4x 1,3x 22,0x 20,8x 0,8x 16,0x 0,7x 14,6x 11,6x 10,0x
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA / Interest Expenses
Total Debt Dynamics(1)
(US$ Bn) 61,5
47,6 41,0 33,2
22,3 17,7
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 39 Notes: (1) Exchange rate applied as at the end of the respective period. Funding for Next 12 Months
Budget 2009* Self Funding (1)
Cash income and revenues - RUB 3.72 trln 148% 123% > 100% Liabilities, expenditures and 110% - RUB 3.8 trln 99% investments 92%
Financial borrowings - RUB 90 bln
Budget surplus - RUB 0.5 bln 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 2008E * Non-consolidated figures. Includes only head company
Recent Debt Refinancing Cost of Debt Financing (2)
(%) GAZPROM 9 • Dec 2008 - $153 mln loan from VEB(3) 8 (LIBOR+5%, maturity 2009) 7
GAZPROM NEFT 6
• Dec 2008 - $750mln credit line facility signed with VEB 5 (LIBOR+5%, maturity 2009-2010) 4 • Jan 2009 - $375mln loan from VEB 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E (10,75%, maturity 2010) Weighted average fixed interest rate Weighted average floating interest rate Weighted average interest rate Notes (1) Operating CF/Cash CapEx ratio. (2) Excluding promissory notes. 40 (3) OAO Vnesheconombank. Cost Management – Strong Discipline in Place
Major lines of cost cutting
Head Company Overheads (1) Subsidiaries’ Overheads (1),(2)
(bn US$) (bn US$) 8,0 40 (24%) (29%)
6,0 30 ~(10%) ~(10%)
4,0 20 due to due to further RR 2,0 further RR 10 weakening weakening
0,0 0 2008* 2009* 2008* 2009*
Exploration works Salaries Materials Gas for technical needs Social Insurance Salaries Capital lease Marketing, audit, engineering Advertising and sponsorship Taxes Insurance Research and development Subsidiaries' assets Capital repairs Other Other
Additional cost cuttings: Sale of non-core assets Social cost management Headcount optimisation
Note: * As approved by Board of Directors (1) Expenses for 2008 are converted into US$ using average 2008 exchange rate, for 2009 using the rate of RR31,9, as approved by Board of Directors, and for 2009 (due to RR weakening) 41 using the rate of RUB35,1, as forecasted by the Ministry of economic development. (2) Excluding a number of subsidiaries consolidated after the privatisation of OAO Gazprom, in particular, Gazprom Neft, Mosenergo, OGK-2, OGK-6, Stimul, Purgaz. Cash Pooling
Monitoring of subsidiaries’ cashflows Setting up internal cash management in the Russian subsidiaries Mobilisation of Group’s internal funds
Reduction of Group’s external Cash borrowings Pooling
Optimisation of mutual settlements within the Group Setting up international pool with foreign subsidiary companies’ Improvement of free cash participation management
We estimate significant positive effect from cash pooling system implementation
42 Working Capital Management
Accounts receivable
Trade Receivables (1),(2) Accounts Receivable Turnover
($ bln) (times a year)
8,9 19,7 8,4 7,5 7,6 16,0 13,1 5,9 4,9 9,0 7,4 7,5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H2008 LTM LTM Improvement of receivable turnover and prevention of liquid funds freezing:
Tightening of FSU payment discipline Prepayment for gas delivered to Russian consumers Gazprom reduction of prepayments to suppliers and contractors
Notes: (1) Including bad debt provisions and long-term trade receivables. 43 (2) Exchange rate as of the end of the respective period Investment Program – Projects Prioritization
Gazprom’ Investment Program (1)
Gazprom Group Head Company
(2) 40 $38.1 $33.6 $29.0 30 $23.5 $26.2 Reduction plan under review 20
($ bln) 10
0 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2009 (budgeted) 2009E Transportation CapEx Gas production CapEx Oil and gas cond. production CapEx Refining CapEx Represents ~ 90 % of Group’s Distribution CapEx Electricity CapEx Other CapEx Long-term financial investments investment program
Priority Projects for 2009
Production: Transportation:
- Zapolyarnoye field - Nord Stream pipeline - Yamal Peninsula (Bovanenkovskoye field) - Pochinki-Gryazovets pipeline - Urengoiskoye field - Yamal-Center (Bovanenkovo- Ukhta and Ukhta-Gryazovets - Shtokmanovskoye field pipelines) - Severo-Kamennomisskoye field Notes: (1) Amounts for 2004-2007 include all capex and long-term financial investments of Gazprom Group. Amounts for 2008 include Gazprom’s investment program (CapEx and long-term financial investment) and investment programs of Gazprom Neft, Sibur Holding and Mosenergo. Amounts for 2009 include Gazprom’s investment program and investment programs of Gazprom Neft, Mosenergo, OGK-2 and OGK-6. Amounts for 2008-2009 do not include investment programs of a number of subsidiaries consolidated after the privatisation of OAO Gazprom, in particular, Stimul, Purgaz. All CapEx and long-term financial investment figures converted in US$ at exchange rates as of the end of respective period and at the rate of RUB35.1 for 2009 according to forecasts of Russian 44 Ministry of Economic Development. (2) Long-term financial investments for 2007 include acquisition of Sakhalin-2, Mosenergo, Beltransgaz and power generating companies. Domestic Gas Market – Key Future Value Driver
Domestic Gas Sales by Consumer Types in Domestic Gas Sales Volumes (1),(2) 2008E (1) (bcm) Reduction Power indusrty 300 scenarios under 280 22% Mettalurgy review 260 40% Agro chemistry 240 Cement industry 220 10% 200 Households 15% 180 6% Utility sector 160 6% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 1% Other
Domestic Wholesale Price Growth for Industrial Consumers (3)
(RR/mcm)
Netback parity +40% +13% with +13% 3 645 +6,2% export +7% +5% +7% 2 771 sales +25% 2 452 2 169 1 909 2 043 1 699 1 784 1 180 1 354
2006 2007 2008 1Q2009E 2Q2009E 3Q2009E 4Q2009E 1Q2010E 3Q2010E 2011E After 2011
45 (1) Management estimates. (2) Head company. (3) Price history – company data. The decision to increase regulated gas prices for 2009 quarterly was approved by the Government Decree №413-е/11 on December 24, 2008. Gazprom - Unique Investment Opportunity
Last 12 Months EBITDA and Net Income – International Majors (1) (2) Total Reserves and Reserve Life(3)
Mkt Cap 118 bboe $ Bn 389 260 148 143 127 116 107 89 84 74 32 102,6 (33 yrs)
63,0 53,7 49,1 47,8 46,3 47,2 36,6 39,0 (US$ Bn) 31,0 23,9 26,7 26,8 23,4 19,9 20,6 19,2 17,8 12,1 14,6 13,3 7,7
Exxon Petrochina Royal Chevron BP Total Petrobras Sinopec ENI Gazprom Rosneft Mobil Dutch Shell
EBITDA Net income
Source: FactSet 91 bboe (1)(2) Comparative P/E and EV/EBITDA (12 yrs) 80 bboe (19 yrs) 10,9x
8,5x 7,7x 6,6x 6,6x 6,2x 5,3x 5,4x 4,6x 4,x 3,9x 3,9x 3,6x 3,5x 3,6x 3,5x 2,7x 2,9x 2,5x 2,4x 2,6x 2,4x
Exxon Petrochina Royal Chevron BP Total Petrobras Sinopec ENI Gazprom Rosneft Mobil Dutch Shell Supermajor Major Emerging P/E EV/EBITDA Combined Markets Combined
Source: FactSet Notes: (1) Companies ranked by market capitalisation. Source: Bloomberg as of February 2, 2009. (2) Based on financials for the last 12 months ending 2Q`2008 for Gazprom and last 12 months ending 3Q`2008 for other companies. (3) Source: companies annual reports. Includes 2007 total proved reserves. Reserve life in years based on 2007 proved reserves and 2007 production. 46 Gazprom Investor Day 6 February 2009