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Fiji New Caledonia Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu COUNTRY REPORT Pacific Islands: Fiji New Caledonia Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Vanuatu 1st quarter 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Jeremy Eagle Tel: (44.171) 830 1183 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases Microfilm FT Profile (UK) NewsEdge Corporation (US) World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Tel: (1.781) 229 3000 Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (US) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 CD-ROM LEXIS-NEXIS (US) The Dialog Corporation (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 SilverPlatter (US) M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN1460-7077 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary The region 5 Outlook for 1999-2000 6 Review Fiji 10 Political structure 11 Economic structure 12 Outlook for 1999-2000 13 Review New Caledonia 18 Political structure 19 Economic structure 20 Outlook for 1999-2000 21 Review Samoa 25 Political structure 26 Economic structure 27 Outlook for 1999-2000 27 Review Solomon Islands 31 Political structure 32 Economic structure 33 Outlook for 1999-2000 34 Review Tonga 38 Political structure 39 Economic structure 40 Outlook for 1999-2000 41 Review EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 2 Vanuatu 46 Political structure 47 Economic structure 48 Outlook for 1999-2000 48 Review Other island countries 53 Federated States of Micronesia 53 Marshall Islands 54 Tuvalu 55 Nauru 56 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 44 Tonga: foreign-exchange reserves, 1998 56 Fiji: quarterly indicators of economic activity 57 Samoa: quarterly indicators of economic activity 57 Solomon Islands: quarterly indicators of economic activity 58 Tonga: quarterly indicators of economic activity 58 Vanuatu: quarterly indicators of economic activity 59 Pacific Islands: direction of trade 59 Pacific Islands: main commodities exported List of figures 13 Fiji: gross domestic product 13 Fiji: Fiji dollar real exchange rates 27 Samoa: gross domestic product 27 Samoa: Tala real exchange rates 33 Solomon Islands: gross domestic product 33 Solomon Islands: Solomon Islands dollar real exchange rates 40 Tonga: gross domestic product 40 Tonga: Tonga dollar real exchange rates 48 Vanuatu: gross domestic product 48 Vanuatu: vatu real exchange rates EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 3 March 5th 1999 Summary 1st quarter 1999 The region Outlook for 1999-2000: Further contractions are expected in many econo- mies in the Pacific region, despite the prospect of a return to positive growth rates in several South-east Asian economies in 2000. More effective policy formulation and a greater degree of cohesion will be required from key regional organisations in the Pacific, as crucial issues such as the renegotiation of the Lomé Convention and accession to the WTO are tackled. Review: The fourth annual meeting of the South Pacific Forum Fisheries Agency (SPFFA) was held in February in Honolulu, Hawaii. Consensus has been reached among most island countries about the implementation of the vessel monitoring system (VSM), but the introduction of legislation in the Solomon Islands has provoked a diplomatic row with Japan. An OECD report has high- lighted the rise of organised crime in the region. China and Taiwan have continued to engage in tit-for-tat politics in the region, vying for diplomatic recognition. A regional tourism body has been established. Fiji Outlook for 1999-2000: A devastating cyclone in January, which followed the worst drought in recorded history, has plunged the economy further into recession and destroyed much of the 1999 sugar crop. The government is banking on the tourism sector to help reverse the economic decline, but wide- spread damage to infrastructure will take time to repair. Meanwhile, although the government has responded quickly to emergency requirements and has issued international appeals for food aid and relief assistance, its attention will increasingly be absorbed by the national election due in May. Review: Major-General Rabuka has set May 8th-15th as the date for the first national election. Fiji’s worst-ever drought was followed by Cyclone Dani, which brought torrential rains to the archipelago, causing widespread flooding. The economy contracted by 4% in 1998, according to the Bank of Hawaii. Foreign-exchange controls were relaxed on January 1st 1999. The structure of duties on imports has been simplified. New Caledonia Outlook for 1999-2000: The overwhelming “yes” vote in the referendum on the Nouméa Accords on November 8th has been welcomed in the territory and the métropole. Political parties are now engaged in an urgent scramble in the run-up to New Caledonia’s first provincial elections in May. The transfer of powers from France to New Caledonia will begin in 2000 and end 15 years later, when the territory will opt either for full independence or a form of associated statehood. Review: The legislation to implement the Nouméa Accords was approved by the French legislature. Both the “yes” and the “no” camps welcomed the deci- sive referendum result. The prospects for the nickel sector have deteriorated considerably, and a committee has been formed at the suggestion of the High Commissioner to provide financing for embattled companies. Tourist arrivals fell in November 1998. Inflation has remained minimal. EIU Country Report 1st quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 4 Samoa Outlook for 1999-2000: Little, if any, political instability is expected follow- ing the resignation of the prime minister, Tofilau Eti Alesana. His replacement, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, the former deputy prime minister, will press ahead with economic reforms, and progress can be expected on privatisation. Review: Mr Tuilaepa was sworn in as prime minister on November 23rd. The government will concentrate on boosting private-sector competitiveness. There have been further skirmishes between the government and the Samoa Observer. A local journalist has won the Commonwealth Astor prize. American Samoa has visited Apia, calling for closer ties between the two nations. Solomon Islands Outlook for 1999-2000: Latent political tensions have returned to the fore, particularly over the issue of land ownership, which have further destabilised the embattled Alliance for Change coalition. The prime minister, Bartholomew Ulufa’alu, will come under increasing pressure to approve a large one-off mone- tary compensation to Guadalcanal province, but is unlikely to acquiesce. Review: There has been a spate of violence in Guadalcanal province which has forced the government to revisit the issue of land ownership. The 1999 budget has been approved, featuring massive expenditure cuts. Wood exports fell in 1998. The Gold Ridge mine should produce 100,000 oz of gold and silver in 1999. Solomon Islands has implemented the vessel monitoring system. Tonga Outlook for 1999-2000: The economy will descend deeper into crisis in the wake of a devastating cyclone in January, which has compounded the effects of the prolonged drought in 1998. King Taufa’ahau Tupou IV will come under increasing pressure to announce the current prime minister’s replacement. Review: Candidates have been registered for parliamentary elections. Tonga has officially recognised the Beijing government, severing links with Taiwan. Illegal aliens, mostly of Chinese origin, have been expelled from Tonga amid rising ethnic tensions. Sales of Tongan passports have been suspended. Foreign-exchange reserves have fallen further. Vanuatu Outlook for 1999-2000: Despite the dissolution of the VP-NUP coalition, the government has reaffirmed its commitment to the comprehensive reform programme (CRP). Review: The UMP has replaced the NUP in the ruling coalition. The possible withdrawal of British diplomatic representation has caused widespread con- cern. The 1999 budget has been approved, while the 1998 budget deficit was much smaller than anticipated because of the introduction of VAT. Other Pacific islands So far 27 politicians have submitted their candidacy for national elections in Federated States of Micronesia.
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