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Woori Bank Bloomberg: 000030 KS, Reuters: 000030.KS Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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Woori Bank Bloomberg: 000030 KS, Reuters: 000030.KS Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report Regional Company Focus Woori Bank Bloomberg: 000030 KS, Reuters: 000030.KS Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 24 Jul 2018 BUY, KRW16,600 KOSPI: 2,269.3 More reversals on credit losses, (Closing price as of 23/7/18) profit growth likely Price Target 12-mth: KRW22,000 Reason for Report: 2Q18 earnings review Substantial reversals of credit losses provision Potential catalyst: Reversals of credit losses provision drove 2Q18 earnings surprise Where we differ: We are more optimistic than the market on Provision reversals, conversion to holding potential reversals of credit losses provision and inorganic growth company to boost share price Retain BUY, KRW22,000 TP Analyst Regional Research Team Higher than projected NIM improvement in 2Q18. Woori Bank [email protected] posted controlling-interest NP of KRW716.1bn (+21.4% q-o-q), 38% and 25% above our/consensus estimates in 2Q18. Its net Price Relative interest margin (NIM) was stronger than expected, at 1.52% for 25,000 130 the bank (+2bps q-o-q) and 2% including its credit card business 120 20,000 (+3bps q-o-q). Loans grew 1.1% q-o-q (KRW2.4tr – KRW1tr for 110 conglomerates, KRW0.8tr for SMEs). Although its loan growth 15,000 100 (1.9% YTD) is lower than other commercial banks that reported 10,000 90 80 2Q earnings, it is solid compared to its annual target of 4%. 5,000 70 Sizeable credit losses provision reversals likely. This positive 0 60 Nov-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Oct-17 May-18 surprise is attributed to the reflection of i) higher than expected Stock price(LHS,KRW) Rel. to KOSPI(RHS,pts) reversal of credit losses provision for STX Engine (KRW120bn), Forecasts and Valuation and ii) in line reversal of credit losses provision for Kumho Tire FY Dec (KRW bn) 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F (KRW192bn) in 2Q18. Even if we exclude these reversals, Woori Net operating income 2,964 3,205 3,459 3,634 Growth (%) 23.1% 8.1% 7.9% 5.1% Bank’s recurring credit losses provision stands at KRW160bn and Pre-provision profit 2,756 3,135 3,422 3,597 its credit cost ratio is solid at 23bps. For 3Q18, it is expecting a Growth (%) 15.5% 13.8% 9.2% 5.1% credit losses reversal of KRW50bn (STX). Meanwhile, the bank’s Consolidated net profit 1,512 2,145 2,021 2,144 credit losses provision for Kumho Tire stands at KRW120bn Growth (%) 19.9% 41.9% -5.8% 6.1% despite the latter’s proceeds from a rights issue. Although the ROA (%) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 bank’s exposure to Kumho Tire in 2Q18 is estimated at over ROE (%) 7.4 10.1 8.8 8.7 KRW400bn, we expect some of the credit losses provision to be EPS (KRW) 2,236 3,172 2,988 3,171 reversed given the bank’s relatively high provisioning ratio for Growth (%) 19.9% 41.9% -5.8% 6.1% precautionary-grade assets (20-30%). We estimate a total reversal P/E (x) 7.0 5.2 5.5 5.2 BPS (x) 32,569 35,454 37,979 40,647 of KRW100bn for 3Q18 and raise our 2018F controlling-interest Growth (%) 0.1% 8.9% 7.1% 7.0% NP estimates by 18%. P/BV (x) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Inorganic growth and provision reversals to be catalysts. With DPS 400 550 600 600 Dividend payout ratio 17.8 17.3 20.1 18.9 rising funding rates, expectations of Woori Bank’s top-line growth Dividend(%) yield (%) 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 may need to be scaled down, unless base rates are raised. Since the market is already aware of the possibility of a reversal of Earnings Rev (%): 18.1 3.9 9.6 Consensus EPS (KRW): 2,789 2,813 2,897 Kumho Tire credit losses provision, a significant spike in share Other Broker Recs: B : 16 S : 0 H : 0 price is unlikely. However, we believe Woori Bank still stands out ICB Industry: Banking among other banks. It is attractive based on the possibility of ICB Sector: Financials further credit losses provision reversals and inorganic growth that Principal Business: Woori Bank provides a full range of commercial is expected to follow its conversion to a holding company. Woori banking services. The Bank offers deposits, loans, insurance, security investments, online banking, credit cards, funds, and Bank is trading at 2018F P/BV of 0.5x (ROE 9.9%). pensions. Woori Bank operates in Korea. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 676.00 Source of all data on this page: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Company, Mkt. Cap (KRWbn/US$m) 11,222/9,918 DBS Bank Major Shareholders Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation (%) 18.4 Free Float (%) 60.71 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 1,996 ed: KK / sa: LEY, CS / AH Company Focus Woori Bank Stable commission income in 2Q18 despite sluggish stock markets. Despite subdued stock markets, Woori Bank remove the enterprise resource planning (ERP) cost of delivered solid commission income of KRW297.3bn (-2.6% KRW21bn. Nonetheless, the increase was mostly due to q-o-q) in 2Q18. SG&A expenses increased slightly to one-off IT system replacements. For 4Q18, we reflect an KRW827.7bn (+11.9% q-o-q, +5.5% y-o-y) even if we additional ERP cost of KRW150bn. Earnings review Unit: KRW bn, % Preliminary earnings Vs. our estimates y-o-y q-o-q Vs. consensus estimates ‘18.06P ‘18.06F Diff. (%) ‘17.06A Diff. (%) ‘18.03A Diff. (%) ‘18.06F Diff. (%) Total operating income 1,662.7 1,599.8 3.9 1,737.8 -4.3 1,682.5 -1.2 Interest income 1,397.3 1,387.3 0.7 1,288.4 8.5 1,367.2 2.2 Non-interest income 265.4 212.5 24.9 186.7 42.2 10.0 2,541.8 SG&A expenses 827.7 754.6 9.7 784.2 5.5 739.7 11.9 Provision for credit losses -151.3 116.3 -230.1 204.5 -174.0 122.4 -223.6 Operating profit 986.4 728.9 35.3 606.5 62.6 820.4 20.2 777.7 26.8 Pre-tax profit 995.5 712.3 39.8 601.3 65.6 805.1 23.6 734.3 35.6 Controlling-interest NP 716.1 518.0 38.2 460.8 55.4 589.7 21.4 571.2 25.4 Note: Based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: DBS Bank Woori Bank: Quarterly earnings (KRW bn, %) 2Q17 2Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P QoQ YoY Notes Total operating income 1,737.8 1,697.6 1,735.6 1,682.5 1,662.7 (1.2) (4.3) Bank NIM +2bps, Bank+credit card NIM +3bps, Net interest income 1,288.4 1,532.0 1,318.8 1,367.2 1,397.3 2.2 8.2 total loan growth +1.1% Net commission income 262.7 276.9 255.9 305.3 297.3 (2.6) 13.2 Non-interest income 186.7 68.7 160.7 10.0 -31.9 TTR TTR SG&A expenses 784.2 1,108.6 883.7 739.7 827.7 11.9 5.5 ERP cost of KRW21bn Reversal KRW312bn (STX Engine KRW120bn, Credit losses provision 204.5 217.3 284.1 122.4 -151.3 TTR TTR Kumho Tire KRW192bn) Operating profit 606.5 318.0 354.9 820.4 986.4 20.2 62.6 Non-operating gain/loss -5.2 54.0 -206.9 -15.3 9.1 TTB TTB Pre-tax profit 601.3 372.0 148.0 805.1 995.5 23.6 65.6 Controlling-interest NP 460.8 280.2 133.6 589.7 716.1 21.4 55.4 Source: Woori Bank, DBS Bank Revision to annual earnings forecasts (KRW bn) Previous Revised Difference (%) 2018F 2019F 2020F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2018F 2019F 2020F Total operating income 6,435 6,714 6,944 6,482 6,770 7,002 0.7 0.8 0.8 Net interest income 5,507 5,814 6,046 5,554 5,870 6,104 0.9 1.0 1.0 Non-interest income 928 900 899 928 900 899 0.0 0.0 0.0 SG&A expenses 3,305 3,356 3,442 3,346 3,349 3,405 1.3 (0.2) (1.1) Credit losses provision 568 651 779 121 610 616 (78.7) (6.3) (20.9) Operating profit 2,562 2,707 2,724 3,014 2,812 2,981 17.6 3.9 9.4 Pre-tax profit 2,493 2,670 2,687 2,945 2,774 2,944 18.1 3.9 9.6 Controlling-interest NP 1,816 1,945 1,957 2,145 2,021 2,144 18.1 3.9 9.6 Source: DBS Bank Page 2 Company Focus Woori Bank Woori Bank: NIM trends Woori Bank: Total loan growth (%) 8 (%) SMEs Conglomerates Bank+credit card Bank 2.2 Households Total loans 2.00 6 1.94 1.97 2.0 4 2 1.8 0 -2 1.6 -4 1.52 1.4 1.50 -6 1.47 -8 1.2 -10 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Source: Woori Bank, DBS Bank Source: Woori Bank, DBS Bank Woori Bank: Net increase in loans in arrears, precautionary- Woori Bank: Ratio of non-performing loans grade loans, and non-performing loans (NPL) (KRW bn) Arrears (%) 5.0 Total전체 1,000 Precautionary Household가계 800 NPL 4.0 기업Business 600 3.0 400 200 2.0 0 1.0 0.75 -200 0.63 0.51 -400 0.0 -600 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Source: Woori Bank, DBS Bank Source: Woori Bank, DBS Bank Page 3 Company Focus Woori Bank Balance Sheet Income Statement (Unit:KRWbn) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F (Unit:KRWbn) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Cash & dues 22,407 15,777 16,092 16,414 16,742 Net interest income 5,020 5,221 5,554 5,870 6,104 Securities 37,893 35,221 36,254 37,342 38,462 Net commission income 937 1,070 1,109 1,093 1,102 Loans and receivables 234,845 250,875 260,910 271,346 282,200 Financial instrument income 0 0 0 0 0 Tangible assets 2,458 2,478 2,497 2,517 2,537 Non-interest income -70 203 -181 -192 -204 Other assets 12,857 11,681 11,798 11,916 12,035 Total operating income 5,887 6,494 6,482 6,770 7,002 Total assets 310,443 316,009 327,529 339,513 351,955 SG&A expenses 3,478 3,531 3,277 3,311 3,368 Deposits 221,020 234,695 242,166 250,379 258,883 Net operating income 2,408 2,964 3,205 3,459 3,634 Borrowings 18,735 14,755 15,224 15,741 16,275 Non-operating income -21 -207 -69 -37 -37 Pre-provisioning operating Debentures 23,693 27,900 28,788 29,764 30,775 profit 2,387 2,756 3,135 3,422 3,597 Other liabilities 26,449 18,094 18,965 19,648 20,356 Provision for credit loss 834 807 190 647 653 Total liabilities 289,897 295,444 305,143 315,532 326,289 Pre-tax income 1,553 1,950 2,945 2,774 2,944 Capital 3,381 3,381 3,381
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