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Energy Security Initiative ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE: SOME ASPECTS OF OIL SECURITY 2003 Published by Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg.-Kachidoki 16F, 1-13-1 Kachidoki Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-0054 Japan Tel: (813) 5144-8551 Fax: (813) 5144-8555 Email: address: apercadmin@aperc.ieej.or.jp ã 2003 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre APEC#203-RE-01.3 ISBN 4-931482-22-8 Printed in Japan PAGE II FOREWORD This report, Energy Security Initiative: Some Aspects of Oil Security, continues the ongoing efforts of the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre to inform and assist APEC member economies on the energy security issues and challenges facing the region. In these turbulent times, threats to energy supply and price volatility, especially as they pertain to oil, occur almost daily. Hence energy security issues are high on the agenda of governments, policymakers and other energy market participants. Previous APERC projects on energy security have focussed on strategic oil stockpiles. In this report, we focus on the Asian Premium pricing and export and import dependence issues as they apply to oil security. Both issues are of particular interest and concern to the oil importing economies of APEC Asia but are also of relevance to other APEC economies given the global nature of aspects of the oil industry. Thus, although energy security issues are many and varied, as are the circumstances facing each member economy, I hope that this report will contribute not only to the ongoing discussion, but also to the improvement, of energy security in APEC member economies and the APEC region as a whole. This report is published by APERC as an independent study and does not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the APEC Energy Working Group or of individual member economies. Masaharu Fujitomi President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre PAGE III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to express our appreciation to the energy experts who have contributed to the development of this report. In particular, helpful advice, insights and information were received from a number of APEC energy experts. These include Vladimir Ivanov (Japan/Russia), Vicki Brown (Australia), Yoshiki Ogawa (Japan), Joonboem Lee (Korea) and Robert Manning (USA). The input of members of the APERC Advisory Board and the APEC Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis (EGEDA) have also been very helpful. The assistance of a number of other experts engaged in energy security matters is acknowledged anonymously. APERC CONTRIBUTORS PROJECT LEADER: Gary Eng (New Zealand) PROJECT PARTICIPANTS: Ahmad Bin Haji Mohamad (Brunei Darussalam) Shiro Konishi (Japan) Jaya Singam Rajoo (Malaysia) Oleg Sinyugin (Russia) Chung-Yang Lin (Chinese Taipei) EDITOR Gary Eng ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT Sutemi Arikawa, Shohei Okano, Sachi Goto, Mizuho Fueta and Chie Koshino. PAGE IV C ONTENTS Foreword.............................................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements...............................................................................................................................................iv List of Tables.......................................................................................................................................................vi List of Figures.....................................................................................................................................................vii List of Abbreviations .........................................................................................................................................viii Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................1 Chapter 1 Introduction, Scene -set and Definition........................................................................3 Chapter 2 Recent Developments in Energy Markets and APEC Economies Pertaining to Energy Security ..........................................................................................7 Chapter 3 Price Issues and The Asian Premium..........................................................................13 Chapter 4 Supply Side Perspective and Issues ..............................................................................19 Chapter 5 Mutual Dependence Issues............................................................................................47 Chapter 6 Summary and Conclusions.............................................................................................51 References ................................................................................................................................................53 Annex The Joint Oil Data Initiative and Real-time Emergency Information Sharing System ...................................................................................................................55 PAGE V LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Price Differentials (US$/bbl) .........................................................................................................14 Table 2 Oil Production and Consumption in APEC Economies – 1999 and 2020......................19 Table 3 Importance of Oil to various Economies...................................................................................48 Table 4 Effect on GDP of (Permanent) US$5 per Barrel Increase in Price of Oil........................49 PAGE VI LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Asian Premium in Arab Light........................................................................................................14 Figure 2 Changes in Formula Prices of Arabian Light Crude and Asian Premiums (FOB basis at the timing of shipment, twelve-month moving averages) ......................................15 Figure 3 Components and Differences in Formula Prices among Consumption Areas ................16 Figure 4 USA: Crude Imports ........................................................................................................................21 Figure 5 USA: Crude Import Shares.............................................................................................................21 Figure 6 USA: Crude Imports by PADD (2002).......................................................................................22 Figure 7 USA: Crude Import Shares by PADD (2002)...........................................................................23 Figure 8 Japan: Crude Imports.......................................................................................................................25 Figure 9 Japan: Crude Import Shares ...........................................................................................................25 Figure 10 Japan: Crude Oil Intensity ..............................................................................................................26 Figure 11 Korea: Crude Imports ......................................................................................................................27 Figure 12 Korea: Crude Import Shares ..........................................................................................................27 Figure 13 China: Crude Imports ......................................................................................................................29 Figure 14 China: Crude Import Shares ...........................................................................................................29 Figure 15 Chinese Taipei: Crude Imports .....................................................................................................31 Figure 16 Chinese Taipei: Crude Import Shares..........................................................................................31 Figure 17 Philippines: Crude Imports............................................................................................................32 Figure 18 Philippines: Crude Import Shares.................................................................................................33 Figure 19 Thailand: Crude Imports.................................................................................................................34 Figure 20 Thailand: Crude Import Shares .....................................................................................................34 Figure 21 Asia 6: Crude Imports ......................................................................................................................35 Figure 22 Crude Imports Dependence on the Middle East .....................................................................36 Figure 23 Location and Infrastructure for Sakhalin 2 Project .................................................................38 Figure 24 Location of Anticipated Markets for Sakhalin 2 Project........................................................38 Figure 25 Russia Pipeline Proposals for Northeast Asia ...........................................................................40 Figure 26 An Example of the Gas-to-Liquids Process ..............................................................................43 Figure 27 Oil Intensity (1998)...........................................................................................................................50 PAGE VII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre APSA ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement ASEAN Association
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