Redaktionskollegium Prof. Dr. Jürgen Pretzsch Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Albrecht Bemmann Prof. Dr. Holm Uibrig Dissertation an der Fakultät Forst-, Geo- und Hydrowissenschaften der Technischen Universität Dresden Institut für Internationale Forst- und Holzwirtschaft Technische Universität Dresden Tharandt, Februar 2004 Gedruckt mit Unterstützung des Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienstes 1. Auflage 2004 Alle Rechte vorbehalten Druck: ISBN 3-9805344-9-9 DEDICATION To my family and to the farm households of Ethiopia, for whom fulfilling the very basic life necessities remains always an unexplored challenge, I dedicate this work as an expression of my deepest respect and love. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I owe my deepest respect and humble gratitude to the Almighty God for granting me his sustained loving care, invigorating sprits, strength, patience, and hope during the course of this long and testing work. The German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) has kindly approved the budget required to cover this study for which I am humbly most indebted. The initiation and undertaking of the entire study would not have been possible without the support of Prof. Uibrig. His untiring guidance, constructive comments, and supervision were indispensable inputs to the completion of this work. I highly appreciate the professional support and supervision of Prof. von der Weth, who provided persistent guidance and constructive criticisms. His co-workers Mrs. Weisshahn and Vogelgesang provided very useful inputs. I owe special thanks to Dr. Deegen for his constructive suggestions on the draft version of this thesis. All support that I received from the staff of various sections of the Dresden University of Technology is sincerely acknowledged. The professional, social, and friendly motivations I received from Prof. Pretzsch, Dr. Pohris, M. Sc. course coordinators (1999-2004), and fellow students of the institute were most rewarding to which I humbly owe heart-felt thanks. I extend sincere gratitude to Dr. Ackermann and Mrs. Bedru, Benti, and Dietrich for their input in this work. From the Ethiopian side, Dr. Demel has kindly provided research facilities during the fieldwork in Ethiopia. The administrative unit of Wondo Genet College of Forestry allowed the use of research facilities during the fieldwork. W/t Selamawit has helped in typing the Amharic version of the questionnaires, to which I am obliged to pay deep appreciation. The support of various administrative offices of the: GZBA, EEDBA, DBF, DBE, and DAC was indispensable for the successful execution of the fieldwork. Special thanks with gratitude go to Mrs. Ahmedin, Berhanu, Gebre Senbet, Getu, and Mesfin. I wish also to thank the staff of various national, international, and NGO libraries that I visited to consult numerous documented sources. The Development Agents of the 10 survey Peasant Associations were very friendly and open in providing the requested information, guiding through the villages, and administering survey questionnaires. My intuition fails me if I overlook the hospitality and sincerity of the survey households in honestly sharing all their deepest feelings. I owe distinguished appreciation to all farm households that have willingly and humbly spared their scarce time and energy to share their farm forestry experiences and general livelihood strategies. The unique love and concern my parents, brothers, and sisters have granted me during the course of this work and their endurance of long separation are unparalleled. I sincerely and respectfully thank my mother and father for giving me the chance of education and bringing me up to this level by sacrificing not their luxury needs but their basic daily needs. I wish to thank my wife, Bereket for standing on my side to encourage and support me throughout the trying moments of this work. Kidus, my son has boldly resisted the temptations of enjoying my regular presence and care throughout this work. Last but not least, I thank all my relatives and friends in Ethiopia and elsewhere who made the completion of this work possible in various ways. I owe special appreciation to my uncle Mr. Guta and his family for all the persistent care and concern accorded to the success of this work. All individuals whose mental expertise and/or physical deeds were involved in bringing this work to its final stage are dully acknowledged. Dresden, February 2004. Achalu D. Negussie ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents Page Dedication............................................................................................................. i Acknowledgements.............................................................................................. ii Table of contents................................................................................................. iii List of Tables ..................................................................................................... vii List of Figures..................................................................................................... ix List of Appendices .............................................................................................. xi List of Maps ........................................................................................................ xi Abbreviations..................................................................................................... xii Summary........................................................................................................... xiii Zusammenfassung............................................................................................. xvi 1 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................1 1.1 Forest cover rates of Ethiopia ...............................................................................1 1.2 Problem statement.................................................................................................1 1.3 Research rationale.................................................................................................3 1.4 Objectives of the study..........................................................................................4 2 DECISION-MAKING STUDY APPROACHES AND THEORETICAL SETTING.............................................................................................................5 2.1 General overview..................................................................................................5 2.2 Decision-making study approaches and analysis..................................................6 2.2.1 Normative or prescriptive approach......................................................................6 2.2.2 Positive or descriptive approach ...........................................................................6 2.2.3 Ethnographical decision tree models ....................................................................7 2.2.4 Decision analysis ..................................................................................................8 2.2.4.1 Overview...............................................................................................................8 2.2.4.2 Hierarchical decision tree models.........................................................................9 2.2.4.3 Influence diagrams and decision trees ................................................................10 2.2.4.4 Analytic hierarchy process..................................................................................12 2.2.4.5 Summary.............................................................................................................13 2.3 Agricultural decision-making.............................................................................15 2.3.1 Schools agricultural decision-making study .......................................................15 2.3.2 Risk and uncertainty in agricultural decision-making ........................................15 2.3.2.1 Conceptions.........................................................................................................15 2.3.2.2 Sources of farm risks and uncertainties ..............................................................16 2.3.2.3 Risk attitudes and perceptions ............................................................................17 2.3.2.4 Aversion to risks and uncertainties.....................................................................18 2.3.2.5 Farmers’ responses to risks and uncertainties.....................................................19 2.3.2.6 Normative modeling of risk attitude...................................................................20 2.4 Prospect theory....................................................................................................21 2.5 Summary and adopted study approach ...............................................................22 iii 2.6 Theoretical settings.............................................................................................23 2.6.1 Theories in social research..................................................................................23 2.6.2 Theories of farm decision-making process.........................................................23 2.6.3 Operationalization of the conceptual framework ...............................................27 2.7 Smallholders’ decision-making study approach.................................................29 2.8 Research questions..............................................................................................30