HELE Coal Technology Roadmap -- Process
Keith Burnard Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency
IEA, Paris, 8-9 June 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010 IEA Technology Roadmaps
To date: Biofuels; Buildings; CCS; CSP; Cement; E&PIH Vehicles; Nuclear; Smart Grids; SPP; Wind © OECD/IEA 2010 Key technologies for reducing energy-related
CO2 emissions
2 60 Baseline emissions 57 Gt 55 End-use fuel and electricity
Gt CO Gt efficiency 38% 50 End-use fuel switching 15% 45 40 Power generation efficiency and 35 fuel switching 5% 30 Nuclear 6% 25 Renewables 17% 20
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt CCS 19% 10 5
0 2010 Perspectives Technology Energy IEA
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 source:
Analysis underpins development of technology roadmaps.
© OECD/IEA 2010 The role of coal in meeting recent growth in energy demand
World's Average Annual Growth Rates in Primary Energy Increase in PrimaryDemand Energy between Demand, 2000 and 2000 2008-08
5.58% Coal/peat 140 % = average annual rate of growth Oil 130 3.05% Gas 2.8% 120 2.52% Nuclear 110 1.38% 0.68% Hydro index: 2000=100 index: 100 Renewables 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source and is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030.
© OECD/IEA 2010 … and in meeting recent growth in electricity generation
The growth in electricity from coal over the past decade represents almost half of total growth
© OECD/IEA 2010 Annual hard coal consumption
3500 Mt 3000
2500
2000 China India 1500 United States OECD Europe 1000
500
source: IEA Database 0
Coal demand growth comes from developing countries
© OECD/IEA 2010 Global coal trends
4000 China coal consumption (kt) 3500
3000
2500 2008
2000 2009 2010 (*Estimate)
1500 (2010-2008) EU 2009 consumption
1000 US 2009 Consumption
500
0 2008 2009 2010 (2010-2008) EU 2009 US 2009 (*Estimate) consumption Consumption
China’s incremental demand of the last two years is equal to TOTAL EU coal use and not far off TOTAL US 2009 consumption 7 © OECD/IEA 2010 World installed coal-fired generation capacity in the 450 Scenario and the Current Policies Scenario
3 500 GW 3 000
2 500 Reduced capacity needs from the Current Policies Scenario 2 000 to the 450 Scenario 1 500
1 000 Total installed capacity 500 in the 450 Scenario 0 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Plants built before 2000 Additional early retirements Plants built after 2000 Reduced generation needs Under construction 450 Scenario installed capacity New coal additions without CCS New coal additions with CCS Current Policies Scenario installed capacity
Peak coal capacity in the 450 scenario before 2020
© OECD/IEA 2010 HELE Coal Roadmap – content
To identify milestones for the development of coal technologies for power generation to 2050;
To cover technical, financial, policy and other matters important to generation of electricity from coal;
To address regional implications of this development pathway, particularly for major coal-using countries.
Global leaders agreed a target of limiting temperature increase to 2°C at the UN climate change talks in Cancun in 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010 HELE Coal Roadmap – provisional timetable
Jun 2011 Workshop on the long-term vision for the deployment of clean coal May – Sep 2011 Review of coal-fired power generation: technologies, policies, regulation, … Jun – Nov 2011 Regional workshops in US, China, India and Eastern Europe Oct – Dec 2011 Drafting of roadmap Dec – Feb 2012 Review of draft roadmap, editing and design Jan 2012 Workshop to review conclusions Mar 2012 Publication of roadmap
© OECD/IEA 2010 Thank you
© OECD/IEA 2010