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The Unmaking of Lebanon's Sectarian Order? the October Uprising And The Unmaking of Lebanon’s Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its © 2019 IAI Drivers by Tamirace Fakhoury ISSN 2532-6570 Last month, an unprecedented protest Still, eight years after the Arab protest movement took hold of Lebanon’s wave, an unprecedented protest streets and public squares. Dubbed movement has materialised, spreading as the October uprising, the timing of to various Lebanese cities from Tripoli the movement roughly coincided with to Sidon. In the wake of a proposed important anniversaries, such as the WhatsApp tax, people have been fall of the Berlin Wall or other iconic calling for the sacking of political historical events, including the October leaders and the eradication of political Revolution in Russia, leading many to sectarianism. Arguably, the protest draw comparisons. movement may trace its roots back to a precursor wave of protests over a In the context of the 2011 Arab spring huge garbage crisis in 2015. Back then, wave, many argued that Lebanon the movement also decried the inept would stay isolated from the protest politics of sectarianism and corruption. movements that gripped the region even though the country has witnessed Lebanon’s political system represents previous protest cycles, such as the so- one of the last bastions of sectarian called 2005 Cedar Uprising. power-sharing, a political system in which religious groups share power Tamirace Fakhoury is an Associate Professor of Political Science and the director of the Institute for Social Justice and Conflict Resolution at the Lebanese American University. This paper is published in the framework of the Jean-Monnet Network EUMENIA co- IAI COMMENTARIES 19 | 66 - NOVEMBER 2019 19 | 66 - NOVEMBER IAI COMMENTARIES funded by the Erasmus+ Programme of the European Union. 1 The Unmaking of Lebanon’s Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its Drivers according to rigid sectarian quotas. Acting as key agents in amplifying the Since 1943, key executive coalitions and demands of the protesters, they have led legislatures have abided by unalterable and staged demonstrations, coalescing sectarian criteria. According to the around the principles of social justice, seminal work of Donald Horowitz, this freedoms and human rights. was one of the key reasons that led to the onset of the 1975–1990 Civil War.1 Many did not think such a protest Today, it is this system that Lebanon’s movement would happen in the final © 2019 IAI protesters seek to overcome. months of 2019. Still, the timing is rooted in the complex disintegration To attract attention and disrupt normal of political, sociological and economic life, protesters have used a wide structures upon which Lebanon’s post- range of techniques. Roadblocks, sit- war order was built. ins in front of financial and political institutions and the homes of political Thirty years after the signing of leaders, graffiti deploring corruption Lebanon’s post-Civil War agreement and the political economy of Lebanon’s in October 1989, known as the Ta’if ISSN 2532-6570 post-war order are among the most Agreement, sectarian patronage evident. At the core of this protest networks have become more movement is the overarching feeling entrenched than before. In contrast that Lebanon’s political leaders have to the pre-war period, when people bitterly disappointed their domestic married and mingled across sects, constituencies. contrived political and sectarian discourses have spread across Lebanon Inept governance and rampant since the war’s ending, erecting walls corruption in addition to of separation among citizens. mismanagement of public resources and squandering of public funds have Contentious files such as electricity and brought protesters together. Indeed, services, quarries, internet, gas and oil, a striking feature of this protest reconstruction and development have movement is that it is not staged or been persistently hijacked by sectarian driven by political parties or civil interests. More than that, deliberations society organisations. Leaderless, and on their management have remained overwhelmingly cross-sectarian, it has restricted to sectarian leaders, making brought together people from different citizens unable to participate in issues walks of life. Some of the protesters I that are most impactful in their daily spoke to have never participated in an life. episode of contention in Lebanon’s history. In early October 2019, the Lebanese parliament passed its first budget since Women and students have been 2005, a first step towards unlocking the heart of the protest movement. 11 billion US dollars of grants and loans promised by the international community, pending economic 1 Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, Berkeley, University of California Press, 1985. reforms. Hailed as a victory, the move IAI COMMENTARIES 19 | 66 - NOVEMBER 2019 19 | 66 - NOVEMBER IAI COMMENTARIES 2 The Unmaking of Lebanon’s Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its Drivers left Lebanese citizens sceptical. Indeed, over reforms, sectarian rhetoric and worrisome signs of longstanding polarisation over external conflicts economic mismanagement have left have dominated the policymaking Lebanese convinced that the small agenda. polity was heading downhill. On the other, it unveils the deeper Lebanon’s national debt amounts to agentic forces moving Lebanon’s more than 79 billion US dollars, the society forward. Women, students, © 2019 IAI third highest in the world. Faring badly LGBTQ groups, vendors, lawyers, on job creation and on the restructuring intellectuals and scholars have arisen of its market economy, Lebanon has as the grassroots challengers of this also witnessed an uptake in youth sectarian order. This has dispelled emigration. By 2017, dwindling tourism two assumptions: the assumption that in the context of regional instability, Lebanon’s citizenry is dormant and the growing fiscal deficits and a loss of assumption that Lebanon has sectarian confidence in Lebanon’s economy, a rather than national constituencies. crucial condition for investment flows, ISSN 2532-6570 had converged, hinting at an imminent Notwithstanding this throbbing protest economic collapse. wave, several short-term challenges await. The unmaking of Lebanon’s Still, the political class remained sectarian order will not come by easily. gripped in deadlock, failing to develop an economy rescue plan. Instead, Firstly, after more than a month austerity measures and tax hikes of unrelenting protests, the created deep feelings of alienation. political establishment has been In a nutshell, precursor signs to this overwhelmingly unresponsive. While uprising were evident in the everyday the government has resigned, the lives of citizens. A case in point is that political class has so far not endorsed Lebanese are estimated to have hidden the protesters’ demands, which a billion dollars in their homes.2 include the formation of a technocratic government, the convening of early Against this backdrop, the protest elections and the establishment of movement comes as no surprise.3 Its accountability mechanisms penalising causes are both structural and agency impunity and financial crimes. related. On the one hand, it signals the structural disintegration of a precarious Instead, politicians have clung on post-war order in which buying time to their posts, drawing on several arguments to justify their insistence to stay in power. They have played on the 2 Thaer Abbas, “Panicked… The Lebanese Hide fear of sectarian strife. They have also a Billion Dollars Inside Their Homes”, in Asharq al-Awsat, 28 September 2019, https://aawsat. argued that traditional political parties com/english/node/1922341. such as Hezbollah, the Free Patriotic 3 Tamirace Fakhoury, “Lebanon Protests: Why Movement and the Sunni Current a WhatsApp Tax Sparked a Political Movement”, represent most Lebanese. in The Political Quarterly Blog, 18 November 2019, https://wp.me/p9PVIh-Mc. IAI COMMENTARIES 19 | 66 - NOVEMBER 2019 19 | 66 - NOVEMBER IAI COMMENTARIES 3 The Unmaking of Lebanon’s Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its Drivers Secondly, grassroots divisions have Russia, which endorses key actors in the arisen in the wake of the protests. Iran-led axis such as Hezbollah and the Roadblocks and the disruption of Syrian regime, has argued against side- daily life have led to the formation lining Lebanon’s traditional powers in of a counter-protest movement, the formation of the new government. though its strength and numbers are Conversely, the US administration, substantially smaller. Some segments a fierce critic of Iran and Hezbollah, of the Lebanese population have has encouraged the rash formation © 2019 IAI contested prevalent protest tactics for of a government that conforms to the harming their economic interests. The protesters’ demands, in a not so subtle recent clashes between protesters and effort to sideline Hezbollah. Meanwhile, members of the Shia groups Hezbollah news of the US Trump administration and Amal are a worrying signal in this withholding 105 million US dollars in respect. Adding to this, rifts have arisen military aid for the Lebanese Armed between intellectuals who have called Forces (LAF) until the latter increases for boycotting the political class and its distance from Hezbollah is another those who called for negotiating with it. worrying signal of increasing foreign ISSN 2532-6570 intervention. Thirdly, the role of external powers, both regional and international, will In such a setting, international actors prove critical. External
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