ISSUE BRIEF 10.10.18 Growth without Development: The Role of ’s Legislative Agenda

Mounir Mahmalat, Dublin City University

Lebanon grows without development. The of the civil war in 1990 with some of the World ’s most pressing developmental challenges. (HDI)1 for Lebanon shows an average A country’s political agenda represents annual growth of 0.14 percent from 2005 its priority list and reflects the topics a to 2015, in contrast to 0.47 percent in government pays attention to. To reveal countries with comparable levels of human the issues the government prioritized over development (such as , Mexico, or time, I identified 34 major issue categories Brazil). Comparing these growth rates to of legislation, including education, taxation, the growth of the economy can indicate public finance, real estate, and public works. how human and economic development are As the Lebanese polity is characterized disconnected. For example, while Lebanon’s by high degrees of polarization stemming HDI improved by 4 percent from 2005 to from a consociational power-sharing 2015, the economy grew by almost 60 system, policymaking suffers from percent during the same period. exceptionally high numbers of formal and The developmental challenges informal veto players.8 Enacting legislation Lebanon faces are multifaceted and pertaining to national issues therefore include insufficient electricity supply,2 requires a wide consensus across parties environmental degradation,3 and and sects, which tend to delay politically Core issues related to staggering inequality.4 The recent contentious decisions. Analyzing the political development, such “CEDRE” donor conference in April 2018 agenda hence identifies the issues on which as electricity, water, in Paris, for example, vividly brought to the priorities of political actors converge. education, environment, light the dilapidated state of the public This brief shows that core issues related infrastructure.5 Due to a mixture of fiscal to development, such as electricity, water, health care, and mismanagement, low taxation on wealth, education, environment, health care, and transportation, are and large-scale corruption in the execution transportation, are underrepresented in underrepresented of public infrastructure projects, the the government’s agenda. Moreover, these in the government’s government fails to funnel the additional categories have declined in legislative resources created by economic growth into attention over time despite the many agenda. Moreover, these developing the country’s water, education, pressing developmental challenges that categories have declined or public health care systems.6 confront the Lebanese authorities, especially in legislative attention In this brief, I argue that Lebanon’s considering the refugee crisis. Instead, over time. disappointing record of development is the government has emphasized issues reflected in the narrow political agenda of related to the macroeconomic environment, the Lebanese government. I use agenda- monetary stability, and taxation. Moreover, setting theory7 in order to match data the share of legislation pertaining to real on the legislative activity of Lebanese estate increased significantly and comprised governmental institutions after the end more than a third of all legislation passed RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // ISSUE BRIEF // 10.10.18

FIGURE 1 — TYPES OF LEBANESE LEGISLATION PASSED (1990–2016)

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2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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SOURCE Author’s analysis

by any Lebanese governmental body over legislation are limited, this abundance of the past decade. The narrow agenda of information requires prioritization in order the Lebanese government reflects several to allow policymakers to concentrate and governance challenges pertaining to respond to the most pressing issues. The political polarization, low administrative legislation the Lebanese government issues capacities, and the ideational foundations in response to its priorities represents of the Lebanese economy functions. To the government’s political agenda. Yet, make progress in education, health, or focusing on one particular issue might infrastructure, the Lebanese government divert attention from other domains, so needs to enhance its institutional capacities every policy choice impacts the diversity of to draft and enact legislation in order to a government’s political agenda.9 Agenda- diversify its agenda and address the diverse setting, then, describes the process by development needs of the country. which a government distributes its attention across issues. The analysis in this brief is based on SETTING AGENDAS: APPROACHING the Lebanese Official Gazette, the official THE LEBANESE CASE journal of the Lebanese government that publishes all legislative texts enacted by The Lebanese government is confronted any governmental body.10 Subdivided into with a constant stream of information 34 major topic categories, the data set about a wide variety of topics—including includes, for example, all laws enacted by security, education, immigration, and the the parliament, decrees by the Council of economy—to which it responds by issuing Ministers, or resolutions by the ministries. legislation. As the attention and resources Analyzing political agendas with data of a government to draft and enact on legislation matters for two reasons. 2 GROWTH WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT: THE ROLE OF LEBANON’S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

First, a standardized coding scheme to government’s attention and the trade-offs categorize the legislation makes the agenda between policy issues. International affairs, comparable over time across topics and taxation, monetary issues, and property institutional origins, such as a parliament, and acquisitions enjoy disproportionately Council of Ministers, or ministries.11 Second, higher levels of attention per year than legislation reflects the outcome of a most other categories combined. The successful bargaining process over political relatively higher degree of attention paid exchanges,12 which goes beyond mere to the core functions of the government— announcements of reform priorities in, for defense, international affairs, the economy, example, executive speeches. Legislation government operations, and the rule of law— data thereby enables an unbiased, holistic is not specific to Lebanon and rather a bias view on legislative activity for political inherent in all political systems.14 However, analysis. Since the data is comprehensive what is more pronounced is the emphasis rather than selective (i.e., the entirety of legislation is analyzed), this approach allows for an overall reflection of political legislative priorities. FIGURE 2 — AVERAGE AMOUNT OF LEGISLATION PER YEAR BY TOPIC (1990–2016)

EVOLUTION OF THE International Affairs POLITICAL AGENDA Taxation and Customs Property, Acquisitions, and Public Works Among the most pressing and salient Coordination of Ministries issues Lebanese legislators had to and Financial Institutions deal with in recent decades were the Education and Culture consequences of the Agriculture (1975 to 1989). Legislative activity severely Public Institutions plunged in the latter years of the crisis and Trade and Economy almost came to a standstill in 1989, when Environment and Health Municipalities and Mayors only 24 legislative texts were published. Transport, Cargo, and Traffic Figure 1 shows that in the period after Correspondence and Communication 1990, legislative activity increased Unions and Professions markedly, a trend that is highly correlated Labor and Social Security 13 with various measures of state capacity. Tourism and Heritage This increase reached a local maximum in Defense and Security 2007 (690 legislative texts published) and Public Finance a global maximum in 2016 (912 legislative Constitutional Law texts published). Parliamentary activity, Personal Affairs and Sects however, does not follow this pattern after Water and Electricity 2000, and the number of laws parliament Judiciary ratified experienced a marked decline. On NGOs and Housing Construction and Real Estate average, parliament ratifies as many laws Industry and Oil today as it did at the end of the civil war in Social and Internal Affairs the early 1990s. Obligations and Contracts In addition, the attention paid by Sanctions and Penalties the Lebanese government to different Culture, Sport, and Arts issues after the civil war is highly skewed Press and Media across the 34 topic categories of the 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 data set. Figure 2 shows boxplots of the average distribution of legislation across these different categories from 1990 to NOTE The vertical bars in each box represent the median, and the enclosed boxes 2016. The large variation in legislative represent the 2nd and 3rd quartiles. The whiskers indicate the minimum and maximum values. activity reflects the different spikes in the SOURCE Author’s analysis 3 RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // ISSUE BRIEF // 10.10.18

FIGURE 3 — PROPORTION OF DEVELOPMENTAL LEGISLATION IN LEBANON (1990–2016)

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SOURCE Author’s analysis

on taxation and customs, and the relative developmental issues decreased irrespective underrepresentation of categories related to of economic and social conditions: attention the development of infrastructure, health, to developmental issues started to decrease or education. in the high growth period between 2007 and 2010, a period during which GDP growth averaged 9.2 percent per year.15 More DECREASING ATTENTION TO financial and political resources could have Attention to DEVELOPMENTAL ISSUES DESPITE been allocated toward improving public developmental issues ECONOMIC GROWTH infrastructure or health care services during this time period. started to decrease in Despite the developmental challenges Analyzing the distribution of laws and the high growth period outlined above, these issues are not only decrees reveals the attention patterns of between 2007 and underrepresented in the governmental the government and parliament as agenda- political agenda but they also decrease in setters for the legislative activities of 2010. More financial and attention over time. Figure 3 displays the political resources could ministries and other legislative authorities. attention paid to developmental categories Different types of legislation involve have been allocated over time as a share of total legislative different processes and actors in order to toward improving public activity since 1990. In this context, get enacted. Laws and decrees constitute developmental categories include water decisions by the highest legal institutions infrastructure or health and electricity; environment and health; care services during of the country, as these are enacted by the education and culture; industry and oil; and parliament, the Council of Ministers, or the this time period. transport, cargo, and traffic. Legislation in president. Resolutions, circulars, and other these categories makes up only 10 percent legislation are issued by ministries and other of the total legislative activity on average. governmental organizations. In effect, laws Even the refugee crisis in 2011 and 2012, and decrees require the consensus of a which placed a high burden on the already higher number of political actors and veto constrained public infrastructure, did not players and therefore coordination at higher result in higher legislative attention to levels of the government than resolutions or remedy the adverse effects on the Lebanese other types of legislation. population. Instead, the attention to 4 GROWTH WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT: THE ROLE OF LEBANON’S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

The governmental agenda experienced tensions that can last many months, such fundamental shifts in the period from 1990 as during times of caretaker governments or to 2016. Figure 4 displays the distribution the absence of a president. The international of laws and decrees across major issue community should leverage assistance areas. Most political attention on the level programs for national development, such of the parliament and Council of Ministers is as the recent CEDRE donor conference in consumed by international affairs, followed April 2018, to design a reform program that by monetary issues, macroeconomy, and circumvents political gridlock and focuses finance. While issues related to international on developmental issues.16 affairs and defense consumed about 19 Second, inadequate institutional percent of governmental attention between resources prevent governmental 2000 and 2005, they made up almost half of institutions from passing legislation the agenda in 2016. Legislation addressing beyond governmental core functions, such economic issues, taxation, and finance as defense, international affairs, or the decreased from 31 percent to about 18 coordination of ministries.17 A recent study percent, while developmental issues are by the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies at their lowest levels since the civil war, revealed the extent to which inefficient with only 4 percent of all legislation on the institutional structures undermine the agenda of the parliament and Council of quantity and quality of legislative output.18 Ministers. Legislation pertaining to property and real estate increased in importance on the governmental agenda from about 4 percent after the end of the civil war and FIGURE 4 — PROPORTION OF LAWS AND DECREES IN the beginning of the reconstruction period to 36 percent of the governmental agenda DEVELOPMENTAL CATEGORIES (1990–2016) in 2010. In other words from 2006 to 2016, 100% more than a third of all legislative text issued 21 19 19 by the Council of Ministers or parliament 90% 22 27 pertained to issues related to property and 80% 4 real estate. These developments reflect the 46 4 15 priorities of the Lebanese government to 70% 22 prioritize economic activities in the real 29 estate and financial sectors. 60% 36 31 50% 27 19 7 23 LOOKING AHEAD: ADDRESSING 40% 6 INSTITUTIONAL SHORTCOMINGS THAT 5 13 14 30% 26 INHIBIT AGENDA DIVERSITY 5 23 20% 23 11 18 Lebanon faces developmental challenges 14 in a variety of fields. Yet, Lebanon’s 10% 5 15 15 narrow political agenda fails to reflect the 10 8 8 4 4 complexity and variety of issues that the 0 government is confronted with. The origins 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016 of this narrow political agenda can be traced to several institutional determinants of the International Affairs and Defense Property and Real Estate Lebanese polity. Ecomonomy, Taxation, and Finace Government Operations First, the Lebanese polity is burdened with high political polarization and gridlock, Other Education, Environment, Health, which tend to protract strategic decisions Water, Electricity, and Transport Industry on part of the government. Developmental issues are of minor political priority, SOURCE Author’s analysis especially in periods of heightened political 5 RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY // ISSUE BRIEF // 10.10.18

The authors reviewed the origin and content needs to diversify its political agenda and of 352 laws that have been enacted during regenerate both the political will and the the last election period between 2009 and technical and legal capacities to devote 2018. They found that only 10 laws that more attention to developmental issues. By concerned developmental categories have doing so, the government can strengthen been developed by parliament and the its legislative institutions and, crucially, Council of Ministers. All other legislation increase the legitimacy of government either related to some of the core functions intervention in the economy, which must be of the government or was developed by used to promote inclusive development. institutions other than the government itself, such as international development agencies. In other words, governmental ENDNOTES institutions write very few legislative texts that relate to developmental issues on their 1. Human Development own. The government needs to increase its Indicators database. The HDI reflects human capacities to craft developmental legislation development in the following dimensions: itself by revisiting its hiring and employment life expectancy at birth, expected years of The Lebanese legislature practices in the public sector. schooling, mean years of schooling, and gross confines itself to the role Lastly, the low diversity of the Lebanese national income per capita. 2. Erice Verdeil, Electricity Subsidies: of a passive supervisor, political agenda reflects the dominance of liberal thought that remains a fundamental Benefiting some Regions More than Others rather than the producer pillar of the Lebanese political economy. (: Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, of developmental This approach emphasizes maintaining 2018). policies. Addressing a “small state” by outsourcing important 3. Robert Fisk, “Lebanon's mountains are governmental services to the private being wiped from the map – but does anyone developmental needs care?” The Independent, June 8, 2018, https:// in complex and diverse sector in order to avoid unequal treatment among sectarian communities. Large-scale www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon- fields such as water and privatization, in turn, reduces the demand mountains-environmental-destruction- public infrastructure via for governmental legislation in these quarrying-construction-industry-beirut- sectors. However, outsourcing essential why-a8388006.html. governmental legislation 4. Lydia Assouad, Rethinking the appears to require more services leaves room for discriminating against disadvantaged income groups Lebanese Economic Miracle: The Extreme legal and technical and social segments across sectarian Concentration of Income and Wealth in sophistication than what communities.19 Lebanon’s education system, Lebanon 2005-2014 (Paris: WID World the country’s legislative for example, is largely privatized and high- Working Paper Series, 2017). 5. See Sami Atallah, Mounir Mahmalat institutions offer. quality institutions, such as the prestigious American University of Beirut, remain and Sami Zoughraib, CEDRE Conference: The inaccessible for large segments of society. Need for a Strong Reporting Mechanism The political elite must revisit the ideational (Beirut: Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, underpinnings of social and developmental 2018); Daniel Garrote Sanchez, Combatting policies to give legitimacy to legislation that Corruption, a Necessary Step Toward increases the role of the state. Improving Infrastructure (Beirut: Lebanese The findings of this brief indicate the Center for Policy Studies, 2018). extent to which the Lebanese legislature 6. Mounir Mahmalat and Sami Atallah, confines itself to the role of a passive Why Does Lebanon Need CEDRE? How Fiscal supervisor, rather than the producer Mismanagement and Low Taxation on Wealth of developmental policies. Addressing Necessitate International Assistance (Beirut: developmental needs in complex and Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, 2018). diverse fields such as water and public 7. Bryan D. Jones and Frank R. infrastructure via governmental legislation Baumgartner, The Politics of Attention: How appears to require more legal and technical Government Prioritizes Problems (Chicago: sophistication than what the country’s University of Chicago Press, 2005). legislative institutions offer. Lebanon 6 GROWTH WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT: THE ROLE OF LEBANON’S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

8. Mounir Mahmalat and Declan Curran, reforms (Beirut: Lebanese Center for Policy “Polarization, Fractionalization, and Reform: Studies, 2018). A Framework of Political Collaboration 17. Ghassan Moukheiber, “Report on the on Reform with Application to Lebanon,” Effectiveness of the Lebanese Parliament: (working paper, Dublin, 2018). Challenges, Obstacles and Suggestions for 9. Will Jennings, et al., “Effects of Development,” accessed March 30, 2018, the Core Functions of Government on https://bit.ly/2P1NrTd. the Diversity of Executive Agendas,” 18.Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, This issue brief is part Comparative Political Studies 44, Parliamentary Performance between June no. 8 (2011): 1001–1030, https://doi. 2009 and April 2017 - Have MP’s Fulfilled of a two-year research org/10.1177%2F0010414011405165. Their Duties? (Beirut: Lebanese Center for project on pluralism in 10. The data set is based on an archive Policy Studies, 2018), http://niyabatanani. the after of Lebanese legislation data, available online com/pdf/Infographics.pdf. the Arab uprisings. from Al Mustashar. 19.Toufic K. Gaspard, A Political 11. Petya Alexandrova, Marcello , 1948-2002 - The The project is generously Carammia, Sebastian Princen, and Arco Limits of Laissez-Faire (Leiden, : supported by a grant Timmermans, “Measuring the European Brill, 2004). from the Carnegie Council Agenda: Introducing a New Corporation of New York. Approach and Dataset,” European Union Politics 15, no. 1 (2014): 152–67, https://doi. AUTHOR org/10.1177/1465116513509124. Mounir Mahmalat is a Ph.D. candidate 12. Carlos Scartascini, Ernesto Stein, and in economics at Dublin City University, Mariano Tommasi, “Political Institutions, Ireland, and a government of Ireland Intertemporal Cooperation, and the Quality postgraduate scholar. His scholarship of Public Policies,” Journal of Applied focuses on the political economy of reform Economics 16, no. 1 (2013): 1-32, https://doi. in the Middle East, specifically in Lebanon. org/10.1016/S1514-0326(13)60001-X. He holds a master’s degree in international See more issue briefs at: 13. Legislative activity is significantly www.bakerinstitute.org/issue-briefs management and bachelor's degrees in and positively correlated with measures engineering and music performance. of state capacity, both indicated as the This publication was written by a researcher (or researchers) who ratio of tax revenue to GDP and the Hanson participated in a Baker Institute project. and Sigman (2011) index on state capacity. Wherever feasible, this research is See Jonathan Hanson and Rachel Sigman, reviewed by outside experts before it is “Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring released. However, the views expressed State Capacity for Comparative Political herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily Research,” (paper, American Political represent the views of Rice University’s Science Association Annual Meeting, 2011), Baker Institute for Public Policy. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. cfm?abstract_id=1899933. © 2018 Rice University’s Baker Institute 14. Petya Alexandrova, Marcello for Public Policy Carammia, Sebastian Princen, and Arco This material may be quoted or Timmermans, “Measuring the European reproduced without prior permission, Council Agenda: Introducing a New provided appropriate credit is given to Approach and Dataset,” European Union the author and Rice University’s Baker Politics 15, no. 1 (2014): 152–67, https://doi. Institute for Public Policy. org/10.1177/1465116513509124. Cite as: 15. World Bank, World Development Mahmalat, Mounir. 2018. Growth Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org/ Without Development: The Role of products/wdi. Lebanon’s Legislative Agenda. Issue 16. See Sami Atallah, Mounir Mahmalat, brief no. 10.10.18. Rice University’s and Sami Zoughraib How to make CEDRE Baker Institute for Public Policy, a success? Focus the reform program on Houston, Texas. administrative quality and social sector 7