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CHAPTER 6: PERIOD TWO : IMPACT of the VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTIONS and CONVENTIONS August 23-September 9

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CHAPTER 6: PERIOD TWO : IMPACT of the VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTIONS and CONVENTIONS August 23-September 9 1 CHAPTER 6: PERIOD TWO : IMPACT OF THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL SELECTIONS AND CONVENTIONS August 23-September 9 As Democratic delegates boarded planes to their party‘s convention, the divinations of Gallup and RealClearPolitics.com suggested that the race was tightening. In the last two Gallup snapshots before the Democrats gaveled their convention to order, the contest fell within the margin of error. Contrary to the expectations of the pundits and scholarly prognosticators, by the end of the Republican convention in early September, McCain had taken the lead. In the following pages, we explore the dynamics created over the two week period from the Biden pick, August 23rd, to September 9th, a few days after the end of the Republican convention when a so- called convention ―bounce‖ was still evident. In this chapter and the one that follows, we account for the shifts in perception of the readiness of Biden and Palin to be president from their nominations through the rest of the general election, including the vice presidential debate, and ask what difference, if any, their selection made in the outcome. This chapter is divided into four segments: the Biden announcement, the Democratic convention, the Palin pick, and the Republican convention. The Biden Pick In the pre dawn hours of Saturday, August 23rd, with the Democratic convention scheduled to open in two days, the Obama campaign sidestepped the press by notifying its supporters electronically that Delaware Senator Joseph Biden had gotten the Democratic vice presidential nod. Minutes after the Obama message landed in inboxes, at 2:22AM the McCain campaign reminded the insomniacs in the press of Biden‘s past doubts about Obama. ―There has been no harsher critic of Barack Obama‘s lack of experience than Joe Biden,‖ said the Republican cyber-release. ―Biden has denounced Barack Obama‘s poor foreign policy judgment 2 and has strongly argued in his own words what Americans are quickly realizing -- that Barack Obama is not ready to be President.‖1 By afternoon, a Republican TV ad had repackaged Biden‘s earlier assertions that, unlike McCain, Obama was not ready for the Oval Office: ANNOUNCER: What does Barack Obama‘s running mate say about Barack Obama? GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS (ABC): You were asked, ―Is he ready?‖ You said, ―I think he can be ready but right now, I don‘t believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training.‖ SENATOR BIDEN: ―I think that I stand by the statement.‖ ANNOUNCER: And what does he say about John McCain? BIDEN: ―I would be honored to run with or against John McCain, because I think the country would be better off.‖ 2 That last Valentine to McCain came on Comedy Central‘s ―Daily Show with John Stewart,‖ a venue in which John McCain appeared more often than any other presidential contender.3 In his interview with Biden, Stewart posited a scenario in which ―You may end up going against a Senate colleague, perhaps McCain, perhaps Frist?‖ Biden responded: ―John McCain is a personal friend, a great friend, and I would be honored to run with or against John McCain….‖ Seemingly astonished by the answer, Stewart stuttered: ―Did I hear, Did I hear with (emphasis added)?‖ BIDEN: ―You know, John McCain and I think‖ STEWART:‖Don‘t become cottage cheese my friend. Say it.‖ 4 BIDEN: ―The answer is yes.‖ With McCain and Obama tied in the polls, reporters surmised that the Democratic standard bearer had both rationalized those earlier admissions by Biden and tasked his senior Senatorial colleague from Delaware with blunting them. ―Mr. Obama‘s choice of Mr. Biden 1Statement from McCain Campaign on Sen. Obama‘s Selection of Sen. Biden as Running Mate From: ―John McCain 2008 - Press Office,‖ 23 August 2008. 2 McCain for President, ―Joe Biden on Barack Obama‖ 25 August 2008. 3Michael Cooper, ―At 70, McCain Takes on Talk of His Age,‖ New York Times, 25 August 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/25/us/politics/25mccain.html?_r=2&oref=slogin 4―The Daily Show with Jon Stewart,‖ Comedy Central, 2 August 2005. 3 suggested some of the weaknesses the Obama campaign is trying to address at a time when national polls suggest that his race with Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, is tightening,‖ noted an article in the New York Times.5 ―The decision to go with Biden, 65, a Washington insider, over a younger politician with a lesser known national profile, such as Obama‘s friend Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, reflects how tight the contest is between Obama and Republican John McCain,‖ said a write-up in the McClatchy papers.6 Where Obama was 47, a three-and-a-half year Senate veteran and identified with change, Biden was a 65 year old, 36 year Senate veteran and Washington insider whose aborted first run for president in 1988 was derailed by the revelation that he had plagiarized part of a speech by British Labor Party leader Neil Kinnock. ―Obama is running on the slogan change we can believe in,‖ pointed out ABC‘s Jake Tapper, ― but the freshman senator selected as his running mate a six-term Senate institution….‖7 ―The candidate of change went with the status quo...,‖ concluded the Associated Press‘s Ron Fournier. ―He picked a 35-year veteran of the Senate -- the ultimate insider -- rather than a candidate from outside Washington....‖8 As blogger Kyle Trygstad observed, Biden ―was elected in 1972, the year Barack Obama turned eleven.…‖9 Where Obama had been in the Senate for a bare two years before starting his run for the presidency, by 2008 the long-serving Biden had advanced through the seniority system to the rank of chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Data from the 2008 NAES suggest that the Biden pick marginally boosted public perception that Obama had the experience and judgment needed to be president and was ready to be commander-in-chief (see figures 6.1, 6.2, 5Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny, ―Obama Chooses Biden as Running Mate,‖ New York Times, 23 August 2008. 6Margaret Talev and David Lightman, ―Obama Names Sen. Joe Biden as His Vice-Presidential Pick,‖ McClatchy Newspapers, 23 August 2008. 7―Good Morning America,‖ ABC, 23 August 2008. 8Ron Fournier, ―Analysis: Biden Pick Shows Lack of Confidence,‖ Associated Press, 23 August 2008. 9Kyle Trygstad, ―Obama Goes with Biden,‖ Real Clear Politics-TIME, 23 August 2008, http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2008/08/23/obamabiden_08/ 4 and 6.3). Specifically, positive perceptions of Obama on these traits began to rise on the day Biden was selected and continued to move upward as they were reinforced throughout the Democratic National Convention. By contrast, McCain‘s selection of Palin did not have the same immediate effect on perceptions of his experience and the judgment to be president; however perceptions of him on the traits increased after the Republican convention.10 The Biden pick brought political plusses. By naming the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, Obama compensated for his lack of experience in international affairs, a weakness on display in the Democratic primaries when he agreed to meet without preconditions within his first year with rogue foreign leaders including Iran‘s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,11 a gaffe from which he retreated with the sleight of tongue that said ―without precondition‖ did not mean ―without preparation.‖12 A Catholic with working class roots who had not parlayed his Senate career into personal wealth, the Delaware Senator presumably also would appeal to the blue collar ethnics Hillary Clinton had claimed in the primaries including those in Pennsylvania, the state that was Biden‘s childhood home. In a year in which biographical narrative was king, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair also starred in a compelling story, poignantly detailed by his son at the convention, of raising two young children after the death of his wife in an auto accident. 10A comparison of NAES08 data (weighted) from before the Republican convention (8/28 to 8/31) to after the convention (9/5 to 9/10) shows that the public increased its perceptions of McCain‘s experience from 6.6 to 6.9 on a ten-point scale (t = -3.23, df = 2,566, p < .01) and judgment from 5.9 to 6.2 on a ten-point scale (t = -2.57, df = 2,534, p < .05). The data also show that McCain had higher ratings than Obama on ―experience‖ before and after the Republican convention (t = 11.47, df = 1,991, p < .001 and t = 19.19, df = 3,142, p < .001 respectively). Before the Republican contention, McCain and Obama received statistically comparable ratings on ―judgment.‖ After the convention, McCain received statistically higher ratings than Obama on ―judgment‖ (t = 4.31, df = 3,103, p < .001). 11Barack Obama, CNN/YouTube Presidential Debate, CNN, Charleston, South Carolina, 23 July 2007. 12Barack Obama, ―Meet the Press 10:00AM EST,‖ NBC, 11 November 2007; Barack Obama, ―Situation Room 6:00PM EST,‖ CNN, 4 February 2008. 5 Figure 6.1: Public Perceptions of the Candidates: Has the Experience Needed to Be President (5-Day PMA) 7.5 8/25-2/28: The Democratic Convention 7.0 6.5 8/29: Palin selection announced 6.0 9/1-9/4: The Republican 5.5 Convention 8/23: Biden selection announced 5.0 4.5 Has the experience needed be experience to needed president the Has 4.0 6/8/08 7/6/08 8/3/08 9/7/08 6/15/08 6/22/08 6/29/08 7/13/08 7/20/08 7/27/08 10/5/08 11/2/08 8/10/08 8/17/08 8/24/08 8/31/08 9/14/08 9/21/08 9/28/08 10/12/08 10/19/08 10/26/08 McCain Obama Data: NAES08 telephone survey Figure 6.2: Public Perceptions of the Candidates: Has the Judgment Needed to Be President (5-Day PMA) 7.0 8/29:
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