Market Watch Wednesday, August 11, 2021 Agenda

Market Watch Wednesday, August 11, 2021 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Agenda

09 M onday 10 Tuesday 11 Wednesday 12 Thursday 13 Friday  Japan markets will be closed.  Turkstat, June  Germany, July CPI  TurkStat, June indus-  Fitch will release Turkey’s labour statistics trial production sovereign credit rating review  China, July CPI & PPI  U.S., July CPI  Germany, August  CBRT, rate decision  CBRT, June balance of pay-

ZEW Index  U.K., 2Q21 GDP ments Growth  U.S., August Michigan Con- sumer sentiment  Eurozone, June industrial production

 U.S., jobless claims

 U.S., July PPI

Outlook: Major global stock markets closed higher, while some tested their histori- cal highs on Tuesday, as global risk appetite remained healthy, attributa- ble to positive sentiment created by the US Senate’s approval of a US$1trn infrastructure bill, despite concerns over early Fed tapering. Hav- Volume (mn TRY) BIST 100 ing started the day negatively, the BIST100 also moved in parallel to the course of major equity markets and closed 0.34% higher at 1,437.46 yes- 1.500 terday, where the banking sector index diverged positively, rising by 16.000 0.76%. EM currencies have closed mixed, while the TRY diverged slightly 16.703 1.400 positively, appreciating yesterday. The VIX has declined to below 17, sug- 12.000 gesting that there has been no increase in volatility expectations in the US. 14.261 14.864 15.397 13.589 1.300 Investors will today follow the US CPI data announcement; a higher than 8.000 1.432 1.433 expected reading may increase concerns over Fed tapering and lead to 1.414 1.435 1.437 profit taking in the markets. And inversely, a lower than expected reading, 4.000 1.200 confirming the Fed’s view that the rise in inflation is transitory, would support the uptrend in the world equity markets. The BIST is likely to move in 0 1.100 parallel to the course of major international stock markets, and yet the risk 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug of profit taking may have increased following its strong recent upturn. The US futures have been trading flat and the Asian markets have been ad- Indices (TRY) Previous Last Chg. YTD vancing today. We expect the BIST to open slightly positively; we may BIST 100 1.433 1.437 0,34% -2,66% observe slight profit taking during the day. SUPPORT: 1,425 -1,413 RE- BIST 30 1.538 1.547 0,54% -5,46% SISTANCE: 1,444 – 1,456. BIST-Financial 1.358 1.366 0,65% -12,70% BIST-Industrial 2.606 2.586 -0,78% 10,49% Money Market: BIST-Services 1.131 1.147 1,39% -3,82% The Lira was positive yesterday, gaining 0.46% against the USD to close Advances Declines Most Active at 8.6154. Additionally, the currency appreciated by 0.59% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income Stocks (%) Stocks (%) Stocks Vol (TR) markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a DAGI 10,00 DYOBY -9,96 GARAN 1.538.559.735 range of 17.64-17.79%, ending at the 17.67%, 14 bps below its previous KARYE 10,00 FADE -9,93 EREGL 1.386.616.504 close. GENIL 10,00 IDGYO -9,84 SISE 1.330.409.482 ARTI 10,00 BASCM -9,04 GENIL 1.123.370.748 Domestic Headlines: RODRG 9,99 MRSHL -8,47 KRDMD 1.009.191.942 Unemployment rate falls to 10.6% in June, while recovery in the employment rate continues: According to the basic labor force indica- Money Market Previous Last Pr. Mn YTD tors for June, the number of unemployed decreased by 823k compared to O/N Repo (%) 19,11 19,10 17,50 18,49 the previous month to 3 million 399k. The unemployment rate, on the other hand, decreased by 2.5 points to 10.6%. In the same period, the Bond (Benchmark, %) 18,48 18,73 18,47 14,96 number of people employed rose by 602k compared to the previous Currency Previous Last Chg. YTD month to 28 million 586k, while the employment rate increased by 0.9 US$ 8,6080 8,6072 -0,01% 15,70% points to 44.9%. The unemployment rate among the young population Euro 10,0904 10,1026 0,12% 10,62% decreased by 0.2 points compared to the previous month to 22.7%, while Euro/Dolar 1,1722 1,17209 -0,01% -4,23% the employment rate climbed 0.4 points to 32.6%. The labor force participation rate in this age group increased by 0.6 points compared to the previous month to 42.3%. Despite the decline in the labor force participa- Commodity Previous Last Chg. YTD tion rate, the fall in the unemployment rate indicates that recovery in the Oil (Brent spot, $) 69,1 70,6 2,25% 36,95% number of unemployed has reached significant levels. Oil (NYMEX future, $) 68,3 68,4 0,22% 41,35% Gold (Ounce, $) 1.729,5 1.728,5 -0,06% -8,95% Silver (XAG, $) 23,3 23,4 0,08% -11,58%

Şeker Funds Previous Last* Chg. YTD Fiba Portfoy Şekerbank Money 2,127686 2,128733 0,05% 10,91% Fiba Portfoy Şekerbank Short T. 0,024787 0,024800 0,05% 10,58%

* Prices as of 11-Aug-21

Market Watch Wednesday, August 11, 2021 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

In June, the labor force participation rate decreased by 222k compared to World Indices the previous month to 31 million 984k, while the labor force participation America Previous Last Chg. YTD rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%. After a decline of near- Dow Jones (US) 35.102 35.265 0,46% 15,22% ly half a million in May, the total number of people out of the labor market Nasdaq (US) 14.860 14.788 -0,49% 14,74% for two months is around 700k. The post-pandemic recovery in real eco- S&P 500 (US) 4.432 4.437 0,10% 18,12% nomic indicators did not affect the labor force participation rate as ex- Europe Previous Last Chg. YTD pected. The acceleration in growth indicators is demand/credit-oriented, Dax (Germany) 15.745 15.771 0,16% 14,96% and has yet to be reflected in the labor market at the desired level. The FTSE 100 (UK) 7.132 7.161 0,40% 10,84% most important obstacle to the recovery in the employment market is the CAC 40 (France) 6.813 6.820 0,10% 22,86% fact that despite economic recovery, the decline in the number of unem- PSI20 (Portugal) 5.152 5.153 0,02% 5,20% ployed is set to remain almost flat for some time. The main reason here is RTSI (Rusia) 1.641 1.646 0,33% 18,67% that the employment/dismissal decisions postponed during the pandemic Asia Previous Last Chg. YTD crisis will be implemented. For our detailed analysis, please click the link; Nikkei (Japan) 27.820 27.888 0,24% 1,62% Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 26.283 26.606 1,23% -2,30% Company News: Shanghai Comp. (China) 3.495 3.530 1,01% 1,64% July 2021 Foreign activity at Borsa Istanbul: In July 2021 foreign in- KOSPI (South Korea) 3.260 3.243 -0,53% 12,87% vestors were net sellers of Turkish equities at Borsa Istanbul to the tune of Sensex (India) 54.403 54.555 0,28% 13,97% USD 3.0mn. Among the top-five most sold stocks: Sasa Polyester Turkdex (Set. Price) Previous Last Chg. YTD (SASA.TI; N/C) on USD 51.6mn, was followed by Petkim (PETKM.TI; INX30 (August 21) 1.552 1.561 0,56% -5,89% OP), Sisecam (SISE.TI; OP), Tofas (TOASO.TI; OP) and Garanti BBVA USD (August 21) 8,7532 8,698 -0,63% 14,70% (GARAN.TI; OP). Meanwhile, the top-five most bought stocks were: Koc EURO (August 21) 10,2770 10,202 -0,73% 9,29% Holding (KCHOL.TI; OP) on USD 25.9mn, being the most active, fol- GOLD (August 21) 487,29 483,70 -0,74% 3,76% lowed by Erdemir (EREGL.TI; OP), Aselsan (ASELS.TI; OP), Arcelik (ARCLK.TI; OP) and Sabanci Holding (SAHOL.TI; OP). Portfolio Inclusion Inclusion Last Chg. BIST Recommend. Date Price Close (%) Relative Aselsan’s (ASELS.TI; OP) net profit rose 42% YoY to TRY 1.305mn in Tofas 06/09/19 18,98 40,72 114,5% 47,7% 2Q21, above the median consensus of TRY 1.146mn and our TRY Şişecam 18/01/21 7,82 8,39 7,3% 13,8% 1.150mn net profit estimate. Positive operational results (especially rising Erdemir 18/01/21 15,19 19,71 29,8% 37,6% EBITDA and top-line) supported the bottom-line. The top-line rose 44% Yapi Kredi Bank 07/07/21 2,22 2,49 12,2% 19,0% YoY to TRY 3.802mn in 2Q21 (Consensus and Seker: TRY 3.690mn) due Arcelik 07/12/20 27,98 32,88 17,5% 8,7% to a strong dollar and high backlog. The 2Q21 EBITDA of TRY 1.140mn Tupras 11/05/21 95,75 99,65 4,1% 4,6% was up by 75% YoY (Cons: TRY 885mn, Seker: TRY 890mn). Increased Garanti BBVA 17/01/19 9,25 9,11 -1,5% 5,6% sales revenue and decreased COGS supported EBITDA in Q2. Gross and Portfolio Yield (yoy) 73,7% 30,0% EBITDA margins rose by 12.8pp and 5.2pp YoY to 43.2% and 30.0% in 2Q21, respectively. On the other hand, the company’s net other income Portfolio Yield (mom) 9,6% 6,2% decreased to TRY315mn in 2Q21 (from TRY 461mn in 2Q20), while net financial loss rose to TRY75mn in 2Q21 (from TRY 45mn in 2Q20). >>>

>>> We expect a positive market reaction as the bottom-line and operational results were above the market consensus. In light of the disclosed 2Q21 financials, we maintain our ‘Outperform’ rating with our TP to TRY 19.80/shr, implying 25% upside potential. Backlog increased to USD 9.2bn as of 1H21 (from USD 9.0bn in 1Q21). In 2Q21, we saw increased project deals when compared to Q1. Re- call that recently there has been a slowdown in the project deal due to Covid-19. With regards to publicly-disclosed projects, the company undertook around USD 597mn in new projects in 2Q21 (USD 114mn in 1Q21 – a total of USD 711mn). Aselsan maintains its guidance for 2021 Aselsan expects net sales revenue growth of 40-50% in TRY terms, while the EBITDA margin is expected at 20-22% for YE21, as last year. Meanwhile, the Company budgets TRY 2.0bn capex for 2021. Arçelik (ARCLK.TI; OP) bought back 2.5mn of its shares (c.0.37% of its share capital, c.1.48% of its free floating shares, and corresponding to c.37.68% of its past 12-month average daily trading volume) on Borsa Istanbul at an average price of TRY 32.663 on August 10, 20 21. Recall that Arçelik had decided on a share buy-back programme of up to TRY 2.4bn on July 1, 2021, and so far, the Company has spent a t otal of TRY 193.7mn (c.8.07%) of this amount. Further purchases by the Company would support its share performance. Coca Cola Icecek (CCOLA.TI; OP) is to announce its 2Q21 results after the close of the TR markets. In 2Q21, we expect net sales of TRY 5,536mn (Average Market expectation: TRY 5,575mn), rising 53% YoY. On the EBITDA side, the average market expectation is TRY 1,285mn, while our expectation is at TRY 1,289mn. As a result, we expect the Company to print a net profit of TRY 628mn (Average Market Expectation: TRY 688mn). Isbank (ISCTR.TI; MP) posted a TRY2,195mn net income (+18% QoQ) in its 2Q21 bank-only financial statements. This is respectively 22% and 20% above our TRY1,802mn call and the TRY1,822mn RT consensus estimate. The 6M profit of TRY4,049mn was up 33% YoY wi th a ROAE of 12.2% (Guidance: 12%). The quality of the beat is not high, but boosted by a TRY470mn tax gain. The main drivers of deviation from the estimates are: a positive surprise on NII, trading loss and a negative surprise on other income, other provisions and OPEX. The PPOP declined as much as 29% QoQ, the weakest figure among private peers. Lastly, there was a TRY470mn tax income, vs. our 8% effective tax rate assumptio n. Management revised down its CoR (net) guidance to 150bps from 250bps, and revised up net fees and commission growth guidance to mid-twenties from 15% growth. Lastly, 3.6%-3.8% NIM guidance is revised down by 50bps. We note weaker-than-budgeted margin evolution, sector-beating fee performance QoQ, muted TRY lending, market share gains in FC loans, normalized CoR, higher coverages and a record-high TRY2,98bn trading loss as the quarterly highlights.

This document has been prepared by the Equity Research Department of Şeker Invest. The information and data used in this report have been obtained from public sources that are thought to be reliable and complete. However, Şeker Invest does not accept responsibility for any errors and omissions. This document should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities he- rein. This document is to be distributed to qualified emerging market investors only.

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Degerler A.S. - Buyukdere Cad. No:171 Metrocity A Blok Kat 4-5 SISLI /ISTANBUL Tel: (+90) 212 334 33 33 Pbx, Fax: (+90) 212 334 33 34, [email protected]

Market Watch Wednesday, August 11, 2021 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

There should be no major market reaction to the results. We maintain our target price of TRY7.05 which offers 29% upside. We also maintain “Market Perform”. The bank is trading at a 2021E P/E of 3.0x (13% discount to domestic peers) and P/BV of 0.3x with a ROAE of 11.5%. Kardemir (KRDMD.TI; OP) recorded sizable quarterly net income of TRY 919mn in 2Q21 (2Q20: TRY -106mn; +83.4% QoQ), exceeding the market average expectation of TRY 773mn and our estimate of TRY 769mn for the period, thanks to a strong operating environ- ment and the adoption of a hedge accounting policy that has significantly reduced the Company’s FX translation losses by some 133.5mn in 2Q21. Kardemir’s quarterly revenues rose strongly by 109.2% YoY (+33.3% QoQ) on the back of a strong sales volume and the sharp rise in steel prices to TRY 3,640mn in 2Q21, and were slightly above the market average expectation of TRY 3,454mn, yet in line with our estimate of TRY 3,671mn for the period. The steelmaker’s quarterly EBITDA also improved markedly by 6.9x YoY (+54.0% QoQ) to TRY 1,256mn in 2Q21, and was in parallel to the market average expectation of TRY 1,254mn, yet slightly below our estimate of TRY 1,336mn for the period. Thanks to robust operating performance, Kardemir’s leverage continued to decline markedly, whereby the Company held TRY 705mn net cash as of end-2Q21 (end-1Q21 net debt: TRY 157mn). We expect the results announcement to reflect quite positively on the stocks’ near-term performance. EBITDA/ton reached US$ 243/ton and the margin rose 24.0 pp YoY in 1Q21 – Steel prices staged a sharp increase throughout 2Q21, thanks to a faster than expected recovery in steel demand, amid lower supplies in the industry. Kardemir’s long product prices were thus c.66% higher YoY (c+8% QoQ) on average in US$ terms in 2Q21. Its total sales volume was also robust, having remained virtually unchanged YoY (+9.0% QoQ) at 616k tons in 2Q21. Hence, thanks mainly to the sharp rise in steel prices and the positive impact of TRY depreciation on pricing, quarterly revenues rose notably by 109.2% YoY (+33.3% QoQ) to TRY 3,640mn in 2Q21. Steel making margins have improved quite stron gly in the wake of the sharp rise in product prices, and Kardemir’s EBITDA/ton rose markedly by 5.6x YoY (c.+25% QoQ) to US$ 243/ton in 2Q21. EBITDA thus rose by 6.9x YoY (+54.0% QoQ) to TRY 1,256mn, and the EBITDA margin improved markedly by 24.0 pp YoY over the wea k base of 2Q20, and by 4.6 pp QoQ to 34.5% in 2Q21. Kardemir adopted hedge accounting policies in 2Q21, whereby it has recorded net FX translation income of TRY 11.6mn under its financial income/expenses account for the quarter, as opposed to TRY 93.8mn FX translatio n losses recorded in 2Q20. The Company’s effective tax rate was at 24.6% in 2Q21 (2Q20: -19.0%, 1Q21: 18.2%). Hence, overall, on account of its strong operating performance and the adoption of hedge accounting policies, Kardemir recorded a sizable net profit of TRY 919mn in 2 Q21 as compared to TRY 106.1mn of net losses in 2Q20, also up by 83.4% QoQ. Thanks to strong EBITDA generation, Kardemir’s net debt position of TRY 157mn at end-1Q21 turned to a net cash of TRY705mn by end-2Q21. TAV Airports Holding (TAVHL.TI; MP) has released its traffic figures for July 2021. The figures indicate very strong YoY growth of 310% in the Group’s PAX numbers, as expected, over a weak base in July 2020. This is because virtually all traffic at the airports oper- ated by TAV had stopped in April 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic related travel restrictions, but had started to pick up very gradually by June 2020, and also as the Group’s traffic figures now include Almaty Airport, which had been acquired by TAV Airports (85%) and VPE Capital (15%) by end-April 2021. Hence, owing mainly to a very low base and to the inclusion of Almaty Airport’s passenger traffic figures, TAV Airport’s total PAX grew by 310% to 8.11mn in July 2021, following 518% YoY growth in June 2021. Excluding Almaty Airport, the Group ’s like-for-like PAX has also increased by 280% YoY to 7.52mn in July 2021. Traffic data also indicates that total PAX served increased by 74.5% MoM, as July marks the first month of the complete lifting of COVID-19-related restrictive measures in Turkey, and to quarantine-free travel with Germany, Russia, Ukraine and Poland. We thus reckon that the data announcement may have a positive impact on the Group ’s near-term share performance.

 Total PAX served in TAV Airports’ Turkish operations rose by 278% YoY to 6.58mn in July 2021 (June 2021: c.3.48mn, +417% YoY). This was supported mainly by the increase in international & domestic traffic at Antalya Airport, where total PAX grew 559% YoY to c.3.92mn in July 2021, thanks to an 869% rise in international and 155% rise in domestic passenger traffic. Izmir Airport has also recorded a PAX increase of 91% YoY to c.1.01mn, and Ankara Airport recorded a PAX rise of 124% YoY to c.0.90mn with a 124% Yo Y increase in its domestic traffic in July 2021. Meanwhile, total passenger traffic in Bodrum-Milas Airport rose by 243% to c.0.64mn, and in Gazipasa Airports by 299% YoY to 0.11mn in July 2021.

 Total PAX in TAV Airports’ overseas operations (c.19% of its total PAX including Almaty Airport in July 2021) rose by 537% YoY to 1.53mn in July 2021 (June 2021: 1.17; +1,375% YoY). Excluding the newly-acquired Almaty Airport operations, TAV’s like-for -like passenger traffic in its international operations grew by 291% YoY to 0.94mn in July 2021. We observe passenger traffic recovery in Georgia (0.36mn; +4,263%) outpacing traffic recovery in other, North Macedonia (0.22mn; +241%), and Tunisia (0.10mn; +187%), Al- maty (0.59mn; +168% YoY), Medinah (0.12mn; 106% YoY) and Zagreb (c.0.15mn; +98% YoY) airports in July 2021. Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; MP) reported a net loss of TRY 497mn in 2Q21 (2Q20: TRY -2,234mn), notably below the market median net income expectation of TRY 811mn and our estimate of TRY 1,298mn for the period, due to significant FX translation losses incu rred in 1Q21. Turkish Airlines’ quarterly PAX recovered by 601% YoY to 8.2mn in 2Q21 over a COVID-19 stricken base in 2Q20. Its cargo business volume also grew by 45.7% YoY in 2Q21. Supported by rising PAX volume and its cargo business, and also the yearly depreciation of th e TRY, the carrier’s revenues thus rose 195.2% YoY in TRY-terms to TRY 18,233mn in 2Q21, and were broadly in line with the market average expectation of TRY 18,578mn and our estimate of TRY 18,919mn for the period. Quarterly EBITDA, on the other hand, rose notably by 3.8x Yo Y to TRY 4,399mn by our calculations in 2Q21, and was also in line with the market average expectation of TRY 4,195mn and our estimate of TRY 4,481mn. The carrier’s operational results confirm a YoY recovery in operations and are in line with market expectations, although we reckon that the earnings miss in 2Q21 could create a negative market reaction initially. EBITDAR surpasses 2Q19 in 2Q21 – Turkish Airlines’ total PAX recovered by 601% YoY, yet was still 55.6% lower when compared to 2Q19. The carrier’s PAX yields were also 1.5% lower in comparison to 2Q19, at US¢7.18 in 2Q21. PAX RASK was especially under pressure from an 18.0 pp lower load factor when compared to 2Q19, and has declined by 23.5% over 2Q19. yet total RASK (including cargo revenue s) rose by 0.5% to US¢5.84 when compared to 2Q19, thanks to higher cargo yields. Turkish Airlines’ cargo revenues rose by 139.4% when compared to 2Q19, to comprise 43.2% of total revenues in 2Q21, moderating the decline in quarterly revenues of U$2,176mn to 31.6% in 2Q21 when compared to 2Q19. CASK remained relatively elevated, having risen by 16.6% over 2Q19 to US¢ 8.02 in 2Q21, although including the ATKs, the rise in ex-fuel CASK moderated to 2.4% when compared to 2Q19. Hence, thanks mainly to the rising share of cargo revenues of higher operating margins, Turkish Airlines’ (unadj.) EBITDAR margin improved by c.10.9 pp to c.26.7% by our calculation as compared to 2Q19, while >>>

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Degerler A.S. - Buyukdere Cad. No:171 Metrocity A Blok Kat 4-5 SISLI /ISTANBUL Tel: (+90) 212 334 33 33 Pbx, Fax: (+90) 212 334 33 34, [email protected]

Market Watch Wednesday, August 11, 2021 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr

>>> (unadj.) EBITDAR rose by c.16% when compared to 2Q19, to US$ 581mn in 2Q21. Turkish Airlines has, however recorded a sizable FX translation loss of TRY 1,604mn in 2Q21, whereby its net financial expenses soared 177% YoY to TRY 2,033mn in 2Q21. The carrier has recorded deferred tax income of TRY 281mn, whereby its bottom line yielded a net loss of TRY 497mn in 2Q21, which was still 77.8% below the TRY 2,234mn net losses of 2Q20. Turkish Airlines’ net debt rose to TRY 121.8bn (end-1Q21: TRY 118.4bn), yet net debt/EBITDA recovered relatively to 9.1x by our calculation at end-2Q21 (end-1Q21: 11.6x). The Company will be hosting a conference call today at 17:0 0 IST time (GMT+3). We will revisit our estimates and valuation after this call. Turkish Airlines (THYAO.TI; MP) has released its traffic figures for July 2021 with strong PAX growth of 177% YoY, as passenger traffic had virtually stopped in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic related travel restrictions, and started gradually improving from June 2020 onwards. THY’s total PAX in July 2021 was at 5.5mn, c.23% below July 2019, thanks partly to the lifting of COVID-19 related restrictions in Turkey from July 1st onwards, and to quarantine-free travel with Germany, Russia, Ukraine and Poland. With readiness to benefit from the potential further recovery of passenger traffic, the carrier has resumed c.80% of its July 2019 capacity in July 2021, whereby its load factor was 12.0 pp lower when compared to July 2019, yet 5.9 pp higher YoY at 71.2% in July 2021. We thus expect the data ann ouncement to have a moderately positive impact on the carrier’s near-term share performance.

 Turkish Airlines’ total PAX recovered by 177% YoY over a weak base to 5.5mn in July 2021. The carrier’s international PAX rose by 335% YoY to 2.8mn (June 2021: 1.8mn; +886% YoY) over a weak base in July 2020; domestic PAX, on the other hand, recovered at a relatively slower pace of 100% YoY to reach a similar 2.7mn in July 2021 (June 2021: 1.8mn; +117%). THY ’s international PAX traffic rose by 59% MoM and domestic PAX by 45% MoM in July 2021, thanks to the lifting of restrictive measures against the spread of the pandemic from July 1st onwards, yet they were still 34% and 7% below their July 2019 levels, respectively.

 Turkish Airlines resumed c.80% of its total capacity of July 2019, and its load factor improved by 5.9 pp YoY to 71.2% in Jul y 2021. Turkish Airlines’ total capacity rose notably by 243% YoY in July 2021, although still 20% lower as compared to July 2019. This was due mainly to 23% lower capacity over international routes as compared to July 2019, while domestic capacity was 6% highe r in July 2021 when compared to July 2019. Turkish Airlines’ total load factor was thus 12.0 pp lower at 71.2% in July 2021 as compared to July 2019, due mainly to a 13.4 pp narrowing of its international load factor and a 6.2 decline in domestic load factor, when comparing the same periods. The load factor, however, picked up by 5.9 pp YoY and by 2.9 pp MoM in July 2021.

 Cargo business continues to support operations, recording volume growth of 27.8% in July 2021 - Turkish Airlines’ cargo business has recorded a strong volume increase of 27.8% YoY in July 2021, following growth of 38.8% YoY in June 2021. Cargo traff ic volume also compares favourably with the volume carried in July 2019, denoting a 20.5% increase. Tupras (TUPRS.TI; OP) is expected to announce its 2Q21 results today, after the market close. The Company plans to hold a conference call & webcast following the announcement at 19:00 IST time (GMT+3). We expect CUR to have improved both on a YoY and Qo Q basis, and thanks to the 133% YoY rise in Brent crude oil prices and TRY depreciation, we estimate quarterly revenues having increas ed notably by c.200% YoY to TRY 27,831mn in 2Q21E. Crack margins have relatively improved QoQ for some of its products, and with a slight widening in heavy crude oil differentials and a positive inventory effect, we expect the refiner's EBITDA margin to improve 1.6 pp YoY (+ 1.8 pp QoQ) and EBITDA to increase by 281% YoY to TRY 2,130mn in 2Q21E. As follows, we expect Tupras to record a net profit of TRY 1,342mn in 2Q21E. The market average expectations for revenues and EBITDA are at TRY 28,818mn and TRY 2,174mn, respectively, for 2Q21E. As follows, according to market average estimates, Tupras is expected to report a net income of TRY 1,166mn in 2Q21E.

Şeker Yatırım Menkul Degerler A.S. - Buyukdere Cad. No:171 Metrocity A Blok Kat 4-5 SISLI /ISTANBUL Tel: (+90) 212 334 33 33 Pbx, Fax: (+90) 212 334 33 34, [email protected]