The Future of Fertilizer
THE FUTURE OF FERTILIZER
1st International Workshop on Alternative Potash
November 2015 Global market potential POLY4
Significant POLY4 market potential based upon contestable product demand 2018
1 1 Global fertilizer outlook 2018 2 Global fertilizer outlook per region 2 (in Mtpa of product with contestable products POLY4) (in ‘000 Ktpa of product with contestable products POLY4)
391.3 5.8 Kieserite 1,4 51.1 Europe AS 25,5 North America 830 28.8 420 120 SSP 32,7 120 3.030 China 2.750 5.870 8.700 3.540 1,8 NOP 46.290 7.580 India 34.710 45.860 11.400 SOP-M 2,1 2.080 Rest of the World 3.540 305.6 340 360 SE Asia SOP 5,6 South America 710 KCL 33.860 420 30 3.820 120 K-CI free 4.800 MOP 71,3 2.200 2.750 AS 3.540 3.540 SSP Fertilizer 45.860 products Kieserite 61.290 in POLY4 equivalent Global market size POLY4 contestable markets estimated demand in 2018 represents ~391 Mtpa of product
Notes; 1) Global fertilizer outlook 2018 based upon CRU estimates contestable products POLY4 (NOP, Fertecon outlook); 2) Fertilizer outlook per region based upon CRU estimates demand in 2018 Source: CRU; Fertecon; Sirius Minerals; Strictly confidential - for internal review only 2 The European Zechstein Deposit Sedimentary rock layers of the middle to late Permian period Key comments
§ The disappearance of the Zechstein Sea was part of a general marine regression that preceded and accompanied the Permian- Triassic extinction
§ Polyhalite is an evaporate mineral deposited here 250-260 million years ago
§ Polyhalite is a hydrated sulphate of potassium, calcium and magnesium with formula:
K2Ca2Mg(SO4)4·2H2O
§ A triclinic crystal structure with a hardness index of 2.5-3.5 Mohs
§ Initially discovered in 1818
Polyhalite resource
Notes: 3 With developed markets maturing, MOP demand growth is forecasted to be driven by developing countries
World MOP demand 2007-2020 Mn tons¹ Rest of the world China Brazil U.S. India Europe
4.4% 73.6 CAGR CAGR CAGR 63.9 Region 2010-15 2015-20 2010-20 54.4 Rest of the world 4.3% 2.0% 3.1% 49.8 47.7 Brazil 9.7% 4.0% 6.8% 29.3 India 5.8% 4.0% 4.9% China 11.8% 5.0% 8.3% U.S. 2.5% 0.3% 1.4% Europe 2.1% 1.1% 1.7%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020² Total 6.0% 2.9% 4.4%
1. Numbers based on Potassium Chloride 10 Year Outlook by CRU as IFA numbers are not available from 2014-2020 2. Assumption: figures for 2020 extrapolated from 2019
Sources: CRU; Sirius Minerals Strictly confidential - for internal review only 4 A new benchmark in sustainability
York Potash has been designed to minimize the impact on the National Park
York Potash Mine, North Yorkshire, UK Boulby Potash Mine, North Yorkshire, UK
PotashCorp, Canada PotashCorp Rail Line, Canada
Traditional approach to mining has historically been low cost, high impact
5 Low impact design
6 Development plan World class mining facility will result in high productivity and low costs
7 Product performance drives marketing success Multiple demonstrations of POLY4 benefits on a global scale
No. of trials commissioned1
1 12 12 12 § Testing product suitability and practical implications 10 POLY4 6 CHARACTERISTICS § Conducted by 9 leading universities and laboratories 2 & PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS § Understand value proposition and product opportunities 2012 ’13 ’14 ‘15 ‘16 ’17 ’18
2 11 § Validate POLY4 in a controlled environment 6 6 6 GREENHOUSE 3 § 17 trials on 13 crops completed to date 2 1 CROP TRIALS § Strong results from ‘straight’ and ‘blend’ trials 2012 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18
3 § Demonstrate the value of POLY4 in the field 42 42 35 39 25 FIELD § 25 crops in 8 countries completed/under way 14 CROP TRIALS 2 § Straight and blend performance validated in field § Expanding global reach targeting crops in key markets 2012 ’13 ’14 ’15 `16 ’17 ’18
30 4 25 28 § Mid to large scale trials reinforce the value of POLY4 17 COMMERCIAL 8 TRIALS § Support sales effort across all markets
§ Trials conducted with commercial partners 2012 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18
Notes: Forecasted numbers based on Company estimates as of September 2015. Source: Sirius Minerals 8 Sirius Minerals agronomic program Global agronomic program covering 77 trials in 8 countries over 25 crops
County Durham Minnesota Scotland • Potato • Cotton • Potato • Potato Shropshire Shandong Wisconsin North North Dakota • Oilseed • Corn • Potato Yorkshire • Oilseed Rape Rape • Peanuts • Grass India • Corn • Potato • Cotton • Tomato Nanjing Virginia • Onion • Rice • Tomato Warwickshire • Wheat Texas • Cotton • Corn • Oilseed Rape • Sorghum France • Barley • Onions Georgia • Wheat • Celery • Soybean • Peanut Sichuan • Peppers • Cotton • Tobacco Florida • Chilli Peppers • Tea • Soybean • Corn • Sugarcane Yunnan Mato Grosso Louisiana • Cabbage • Tobacco • Corn • Soybean • Corn • Tea • Tomato • Soybean Sao Paulo Tanzania • Sugarcane Malaysia • Corn • Soybean • Oil Palm • Tobacco • Tomato • Tomato • Potato Global POLY4 agronomy programme is designed scientifically grounded commercial data on the market changing potential of POLY4
Notes: Trials as of September 2015 9 The attractions of polyhalite A single source of bulk nutrients as foundation for more balanced fertilization
Polyhalite nutrient composition1 The Sirius ‘POLY4’ characteristics2
Nitrogen Phosphorus § Supply of four of the six macro nutrients & (N) (P) micro nutrient
Potassium Sulphur § Straight or as part of a fertilizer blend (14% K2O) (19% S)
Magnesium Calcium § Nutrients are readily available (6% MgO) (17% CaO)
Boron Zinc Manganese Molybdenum § No negative effect on soil conductivity Polyhalite Polyhalite
Selenium Iron Copper Strontium § Essentially chloride free
§ Does not change soil pH
§ Certified as organic
POLY4 is a natural single source of K, S, Mg, Ca with valuable micro nutrients
Notes: 1) Based on 90% Polyhalite grade. Macro nutrients based on w/w % and micro nutrients based on mg/kg. 2) POLY4 is the trademark name for polyhalite products from the York Potash Project. 10 STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL Positive results for POLY4 as a potash source in N and P balanced trials
Yield results (straights) 1
MOP POLY4 +96% 200
180 +51% 160 +41% +28% 140 +24%
Yield Index +16% 120 (100=MOP Straight) Straight) (100=MOP
100
80 2 2 3 2 2 Soybean Potato2 Onions Wheat Tomato Cabbage 60 240 120 100 250 180
Application rate (kg K2O/ha)
Crop study results show that POLY4 is effective for crops of global importance
Notes: Detailed crop study results available on company website; Yield parameters by crop; soybean fresh weight, potato tuber fresh weight, onion colossal yield, wheat seed fresh weight, sugarcane yield, Tomato yield, Cabbage head weight;1) Yield gains of POLY4 over MOP straight; 2) Field trial; 3) Greenhouse trial; Source: Texas A&M; Durham University; University of Florida; Shandong 11 Agricultural University Added value of a unique fertilizer Sirius minerals agronomy programme examines the scientific basis for yield improvement
POLY4 enhances: Enhanced Enhanced macro-nutrient residual nutrients uptake Quality in soil Economics Effectively Yield chloride Environment free
Enhanced micro-nutrient uptake pH neutral Reduced leaching Root losses disease Reduced Topical reduction potentially toxic disease nutrient uptake reduction
EC effect limited
Sirius Minerals has a continued commitment to developing agronomic understanding of Polyhalite Notes: Sirius Minerals Agronomy webcasts 12 Sustained nutrient delivery from POLY4 Results based on six crops in five trial locations across the world
Improved nitrogen use efficiency – Normal P uptake, considered a risk N all trials N balanced when additional calcium is applied P
K from POLY4 elevates uptake POLY4 is more supportive K above other K sources of S uptake than SOP S
Improved Mg uptake Calcium is often overlooked Mg supports photosynthesis but an unmet demand is seem Ca
13 Thank you
14