Mercenaries in Libya and the Threat to Regional Peace
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POLICY OUTLOOK POLICY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION PAPER Mercenaries in Libya and the Threat to Regional Peace Ferhat Polat (Sinan Gül - Anadolu Agency) Libya is at its most stable moment since 2014, the conflict was effectively de-escalated when Libya’s warring parties agreed to sign a ceasefire agreement in October 2020. This development facilitated a peace process that, in theory, culminates in general elections scheduled to be held on December 24th, 2021. However, political, institutional and security challenges could complicate the prospect for stability and risk jeopardizing progress made in recent months. The security situation will presumably remain precarious in the coming months due to the continued presence of irregular troops and mercenaries in the country who pose a threat to the stability of Libya and the region. The opinions expressed in this policy outlook represent the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TRT World Research Centre. POLICY OUTLOOK has stalled and their continued presence is a threat not Introduction only to Libya but to the North African region as a whole. In March 2021, Libyan factions achieved an unexpected breakthrough in forming the Government of National Unity (GNU), which was at least tacitly accepted by all the The current political major actors in the country. After years of conflict, this should be seen as a notable step towards rapprochement. and military The new government must deal with an array of complex landscape political, economic and security challenges if it is to keep After six years of civil war, Libya’s warring factions agreed the country together until planned elections in December to a ceasefire in October 2020, which has facilitated a 2021, which it is hoped will lead to a more stable and peace process that, in theory, ends in general elections permanent civilian authority and significantly advance a scheduled to be held on December 24th, 2021. Despite permanent solution to the civil war that has raged since this positive outcome, the country remains an arena for 2015. external players and their proxies. Providing security could be the most pressing challenge The planned elections are part of an UN-backed settlement for the unity government. Libya’s new Prime Minister process led by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh said that he plans on unifying (UNSML) and follow the ceasefire deal, which came on the Libya’s state institutions, including the military. However, heels of the defeat of a fourteen-month offensive led by the others stress the importance of the role of the United Khalifa Haftar that aimed at taking over the capital, Tripoli, Nations and the major powers in sponsoring the new from the UN-backed GNA. government, stabilising the ceasefire, and removing militias and mercenaries. Resolving the constitutional and legal basis for the Security and stability would encourage Libyans to take elections is crucial. Currently, there is a lack of unity part in the process of reconciliation and to support between the House of Representatives (HoR) and High paths of reconstruction and development. However, the Council of State (HCS) on the constitutional framework for presence of mercenaries poses a great security challenge elections, which could ultimately undermine the process. and continues to inhibit progress toward meeting the In this respect, the High National Election Commission December 2021 election timeline. (HNEC) has given a tight deadline to the rival parties to clarify the legal foundations of the elections. Under the UN-brokered ceasefire deal signed in October last year, foreign troops and mercenaries were mandated One key question is whether to hold a referendum on a to pull out of Libya within three months. According to the draft constitution prior to the elections or pass a temporary UN, there were 20,000 foreign forces and mercenaries in law and postpone broader constitutional questions. Libya at the end of 2020, and no withdrawals have been Another focuses on whether to hold direct presidential observed since. and parliamentary elections at the same time or allow the elected parliament to select a president. Furthermore, Ján Kubiš, the UN special envoy for Libya, warned the questions about candidate eligibility, such as whether they UN Security Council that progress on the key issue of the can have multiple citizenships, must also be addressed. withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign fighters from Libya German Foreign Minister Heiko Mass, Rosemary DiCarlo (R), Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs of the United Nations and Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush hold a press conference within the Second Berlin Conference on Libya, in Berlin, Germany on June 23, 2021. (Thomas Imo/photothek.de/Pool - Anadolu Agency) 2 POLICY OUTLOOK On June 23, Germany and the UN hosted a follow up Wolfgang Pusztai, Security & Policy Analyst Director, to the January 2020 Berlin Peace Conference on Libya. Perim Associate, told TRT World Research Centre, that: The UN sponsored conference renewed commitments “Mercenaries and irregular troops as such are not so much to holding elections in December this year. According to a threat to stability as long as they are disciplined and the final declaration of this conference, the departure of firmly embedded in a chain of command. This is more foreign fighters must be implemented in full and without of a problem wherever there is no proper control of the further delay. All parties should abstain from activities mercenaries, which is especially the case in southern Libya that aggravate the conflict, including financing military where mercenary groups operate frequently on their own”. capabilities or recruiting foreign fighters and mercenaries. The Libyan foreign minister also said that “Hopefully Improving security is a key priority for the GNU along within coming days, mercenaries from both sides (are) with attempts to improve political and socioeconomic going to be withdrawing and I think this is going to be conditions. To this end, Libya’s new Prime Minister, Abdul encouraging”. Hamid Dbeibeh, has stated that he plans on unifying Libya’s state institutions, including the military. Security Challenges In this regard, the UN is facilitating the Joint Military Over the last ten years, the unstable security situation Committee (JMC), also known as the 5+5 Commission, in Libya has been exacerbated by the continued failure composed of five representatives each from the two major of rival political parties to reconcile. The polarisation in opposing parties in the Libyan conflict: the previous UN- Libyan politics and the following incapacity to consolidate backed GNA administration in Tripoli and forces aligned rival militias into a unified, professional national armed with Khalifa Haftar. The JMC was established after the force has created a security vacuum in the country. Berlin conference in 2020 and tasked with uniting the country’s disparate military institutions and determining Today, Libya seems to be on the path towards stability what militias would become part of the army and which thanks to the ongoing UN-led peace process. However, groups would be excluded. despite the end of military operations, following the ceasefire agreement there are still many irregular troops The intent is to provide for the continuation of the ceasefire and mercenaries in the country who pose a threat to the arrangement and the formation of a unified military. stability of Libya and the region. However, so far, the only notable accomplishment of the committee has been to agree on a permanent truce “Above all, mercenaries speak to the weaknesses of following pressure by the UN. the Libyan state and the various factions attempting to control it. The last thing the situation in Libya needs is The success of the reconciliation process depends on the another variable like mercenaries to complicate an already implementation of the agreements reached between the complex situation defined by weak institutions and fragile Libyan parties in the 5+5 talks. This is a condition for any political coalitions”. Dr Jacob Mundy, Associate Professor of meaningful improvements to be achieved in the security Peace and Conflict Studies and Middle Eastern and Islamic and economic tracks of the negotiations. For instance, Studies at Colgate University, told TRT World Research as part of the deal, the Mediterranean costal highway Centre. extending between Sirte in Central Libya and Misrata in western Libya, was re-opened to reunite the population Mundy further observed that “in so far as mercenaries centres in the east and west after two years of closure. and other kinds of irregular foreign fighters serve the interests of foreign governments that sponsor them, Presence of mercenaries they represent the ongoing militarisation of Libya and its political problems by outside actors whose interests are Mercenaries have been heavily involved in illicit, not necessarily in a peaceful, stable country. One could destabilising activities in a number of countries including easily imagine that foreign fighters who become disowned in Libya. A by-product of the civil war, the increasing or suddenly unemployed by their sponsors, with no way involvement of foreign powers and the continuing to return home, would have little choice but to rely on the insecurity and presence of mercenaries are detrimental to very skills that brought them to the country: warfighting. Libya’s security and economy. We have more or less seen this with Darfuri and Tebu mercenaries that float from conflict to conflict, but now In a speech to parliament in March, Libya’s Prime with the added element of Syrian mercenaries there’s a Minister affirmed that “The mercenaries are a stab in our potential for them to find their way into pre-existing groups back they must leave. Our sovereignty is violated by their like Daesh or Al-Qaida in North Africa, groups that could presence.” The presence of external players, refusing to use a fresh injection of talent and human capital”.