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The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

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The A2 Milk Company (A2M) 7 June 2016 Analyst Jonathan Snape 613 9235 1601 The a2 Milk company (A2M) Authorisation Easy to stomach Sam Haddad 612 8224 2819 Recommendation Background and investment view Buy (Initiation) The a2 Milk Company (A2M) is in the business of producing, marketing and selling Price branded dairy and infant milk formula (IMF) products in Australia, New Zealand, China, A$1.38 US and UK. A2M branded milk contains only A2 Protein rather than both A1 and A2 proteins which are found in Regular Cows’ Milk. The business model of A2M is to Target (12 months) focus on consumer facing products with a target on the functional food markets where A$1.81 (Initiation) a premium can be generated. We initiate on A2M with a Buy rating and a $1.81ps price target. Our favourable view on A2M is supported by: (1) a favourable margin shift Expected Return as sales evolve in IMF; (2) exposure to growing demand for imported IMF products in Capital growth 31.9% China; (3) transition of the US and UK businesses from losses to profits; (4) a change Dividend yield 0.0% in the NZ business model post 2017 to the advantage of A2M; (5) the potential Total expected return 31.9% expansion of the product portfolio into new products across all regions; and (6) Company Data & Ratios undemanding valuation metrics relative to other FMCG companies with functional Enterprise value A$943.7m properties or leverage to infant nutrition markets. Market cap A$978.0m Offshore growth options Issued capital 711.3m Free float 100% In the last three years A2M has entered the fast growing Chinese IMF market, Avg. daily val. (52wk) $11.6m restructured its UK operations and re-entered the US market. The size of these market 12 month price range $0.46-2.36 opportunities is large with; (1) the Chinese IMF market worth US$17.8Bn in 2014 (vs. GICS sector Australia at A$780m) and growing (+18% pa FY14-19e); and (2) the UK and US fresh Food Beverage and Tobacco milk markets worth US$48Bn with a premium segment worth $4Bn annually, rivalling the size of the entire Australian market (worth ~A$4.6Bn). The earnings upside to A2M from gaining relatively modest market share in these markets is material in our view. Price Performance (1m) (3m) (12m) Investment view: Initiate coverage with a Buy rating Price (A$) 1.64 1.64 0.47 Absolute (%) -16.16 -15.90 192.55 Rel market (%) -16.36 -24.88 197.15 A2M looks a business operating within its competitive advantage period, benefiting from being a first mover in a new functional food category with a degree of IP and brand protection. In our view A2M is at the infancy of its earnings growth profile, generating an exception ROIC (44% in FY16e) and strong operating cashflows (from FY17e) and we initiate coverage on A2M with a Buy rating and a $1.81ps target price. Absolute Price Earnings Forecast Year end June 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e $2.5 Sales (NZ$m) 155.1 343.0 457.4 526.1 $2.0 EBITDA (NZ$m) 4.8 47.1 82.8 102.7 NPAT (adjusted) (NZ$m) (0.4) 29.6 55.6 70.0 $1.5 NPAT (reported) (NZ$m) (2.1) 27.6 55.6 70.0 $1.0 EPS (adjusted) (NZ cps) (0.1) 4.2 7.5 9.4 EPS growth (%) n.a. n.a. 78.0 26.0 $0.5 PER (x) n.a. 34.7 19.5 15.5 $0.0 FCF Yield (%) -1.2 -2.0 3.4 5.7 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 EV/EBITDA (x) 208.5 21.2 12.1 9.7 Dividend (NZ Cps) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 A2M S&P 300 Rebased Franking (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROE (%) 5.4 44.1 65.4 73.7 SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES SOURCE: IRESS BELL POTTER SECURITI ES LIMITED DISCLAIMER AND DISCL OSURES ACN 25 006 390 7721 THIS REPORT MUST BE READ WITH THE DISCLAIMER Page 1 AFSL 243480 AND DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 23 THAT FORM PART OF IT. The a2 Milk company (A2M) 7 June 2016 Contents Background and Investment view ................................................ 3 What is a2 Milk and what’s the difference? ................................. 7 Supply Chain .................................................................................. 8 Patent Protection ......................................................................... 10 Regional and divisional overview ............................................... 11 Financials ..................................................................................... 15 Board and management .............................................................. 18 Major shareholders ...................................................................... 20 Risks ............................................................................................. 21 Page 2 The a2 Milk company (A2M) 7 June 2016 Background and Investment view COMPANY BACKGROUND The a2 Milk Company (A2M) was established in NZ in 2000 by Corran McLachlan and is in the business of producing, marketing and selling branded dairy and infant formula products in Australia, New Zealand, China, US and UK. A2M branded milk contains only A2 Protein rather than both A1 Protein and A2 Protein which are found in Regular Cows’ Milk, with a body of research purporting to support claims that A2 protein is easier to digest and reduces discomfort of consumers. The A2M business model is to focus on consumer facing products which tend to be higher margin with a target on the functional foods market where a premium can be generated. A2M is a pioneer in its field and there are a number of patents protecting herd testing and branding. A brief divisional overview of A2M is summarised below. Figure 1 - A2M operational overview 1H16 1H16 Market Market size 10yr CAGR Estimated 2015 Division Category Product Sales EBITDA Entry Volume Value Market share Fresh & long life milk, cream & yoghurt ~2,500mL ~A$4.6Bn Fresh dairy +2.0% 2.2% Australia & NZ 127.90 34.50 (under licence to jalna) 2003 ~NZ$1.4Bn IMF Infant and follow on formulas ~25,000t ~A$750m +5.0% pa 11.4% China 8.40 1.10 IMF Infant and follow on formulas 2013 ~800,000t ~US$19.9Bn +24.0%pa >0.1% UK Fresh dairy Fresh and long life milk 2012 ~5,500mL GBP3.1Bn +2.5% >0.1% 2.90 (8.10) US Fresh dairy Fresh and long life milk 2015 ~50,000mL US$44.0Bn (0.7%) pa n.a. SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES Figure 2 - FY16e revenue by region Figure 3 - Revenue growth by product segment 700.0 140% 600.0 120% 500.0 100% 400.0 80% 300.0 60% 200.0 40% 100.0 20% 0.0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Infant forumla sales ($m) - LHS Fresh dairy sales ($m) - LHS Revenue growth (%) - RHS SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES SOURCE: COMPANY DATA AND BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES INVESTMENT THESIS A2M looks a business still within its competitive advantage period, with the advantage of being a first mover in a new functional food category and still holding IP and brand protection. This creates a unique set of circumstances with a company achieving significant growth in revenues and earnings, while sustaining a ROIC (~45% in FY16e) well in excess of its cost capital and an exceptionally high level of operating cash generation. In our view A2M is still in the infancy of its growth profile and as such we initiate coverage on A2M with a Buy rating and a $1.81ps target price. Our favourable view on A2M is predicated on: 1.0 Favourable margin shift as sales evolve in IMF: Infant formula sales have grown from 7% of revenues in FY14 to an estimated 59% in FY16e. We estimate that infant formula will make up in excess of 60% of revenue in FY17-18e despite growth in the US & UK milk revenue base and in doing so result in a favourable gross margin shift in the Australian and Asian businesses where we estimate gross margins can be 30-40% higher than those generated in fresh milk sales. Page 3 The a2 Milk company (A2M) 7 June 2016 2.0 China market opportunity: The Chinese IMF market was worth US$17.8Bn in 2014 and had been growing at +24% pa in the five years preceding this. This growth is expected to continue with compound growth in demand forecast at +18% pa through to 2019e and A2M is leveraged to this thematic. A2M already operates aa profitable business on a modest sales base ($8.6m in 1H16) and even achieving modest market share (in a market where 30% of product is imported) offers a sizeable opportunity for A2M. 3.0 Evolution of the US and UK businesses: The UK business is expected to be EBIT cash breakeven status in 4Q16 while the investment in expanding the US market presence has been accelerated due to the increasing cash generation of the Australian and China businesses. Combined, these two markets have annual milk sales volumes of 55.6BnL worth an estimated US$48Bn in turnover and developed premium market segments with annual turnover of US$4Bn or a figure broadly comparable to the size of the entire Australian market. Even achieving modest market shares of 1.5% would imply a $20-25m EBITDA opportunity, a figure we project by FY21e. 4.0 Changing NZ business model: The NZ license with Frescha Valley runs until May 2017 and it is intended that this structure will be collapsed and a similar operating model to that of Australia be adopted. Sales of a2 branded milk in NZ are the equivalent of 1-2% of those achieved in Australia and it could be argued that the opportunity for A2M could be material if the success in Australia could be replicated.
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