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Protest Season #12 (142) December 2019 Interview with the IMF Resident UK, Hong Kong, Post-honeymoon mood Representative in Ukraine and Kryvyi Rih in the Ukrainian politics PROTEST SEASON WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS 3 BRIEFING ECONOMICS 4 Why is Paris mum? 24 In the trap of luxury Cherchez la femme in this case is more On the current economic trends towards a like cherchez le gaz stronger hryvnia and imported goods POLITICS 26 A little less conversation, a little more reforms 7 Robert Brinkley: “Ukraine should ensure that Western countries are aware which How economic transformations drive GDP prisoners are being held by Russia” growth Chairman of the Steering Committee of 28 Social policy: Entrenching poverty the Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia What kinds of social policy initiatives is the Programme at Chatham House about new administration preparing? perspectives of Ukrainian relations with SOCIETY West and Russia 31 The post-honeymoon mood 8 Electoral parade Ukrainians are no longer excited with Michael Binyon (London) on different some of the government’s actions UK political forces before Parliamentary elections 33 After Viatrovych How the current political environment 10 Staring into the abyss may affect the work of the Ukrainian Where are Hong Kong protests heading Institute of National Memory to? 35 President’s hometown 12 Tacan Ildem: “We have enough ways Today of Kryvyi Rih and means to increase our partnership to strengthen the capacities of Ukraine” 38 The culture of poverty NATO Assistant Secretary General for What poorer Ukrainians think of subsidies, Public Diplomacy on symbols and the rich, and themselves messages between the Alliance and NEIGHBORS Ukraine and perspectives on bilateral 40 Dead Souls: The people’s census partnership What those “dead souls” are hiding in FOCUS occupied Donbas 14 Movement to restrain 42 What those “dead souls” are hiding in Who is behind the “No capitulation!” occupied Donbas movement, and how it could actually help How are residents of ORDiLO being polled Zelenskiy for their opinions? 16 Goesta Ljungman: “Now the Ukrainian 44 Stagnation 2.0 state faces a new challenge - to recover What the Russian authorities can do to taxpayers' money spent to rescue problem preserve the current regime banks” HISTORY IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine on the new International Monetary 46 Capitulation kozak-style: The death of 1,000 Fund program for Ukraine and the key cuts challenges for Ukrainian economy How Ukraine’s statehood collapsed in the 17th and 18th centuries 18 To instigate chaos Who is alleged mastermind of the efforts CULTURE & ARTS to shake up the situation in the country? 50 The months of Ukrainian music, Chinese 20 Between a rock and a hard place Lanterns and ice sculptures On the duel over the energy market The Ukrainian Week offers a selection of between two oligarchs events to visit in December and January E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-00 The Ukrainian Week #12 (142) December 2019 Office address Kyiv, Ukraine, 36A, vul. Bohdana Khmelnytskoho, apt. 3 Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade, 1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Max Nestelieiev, Lidia Wolanskyj Why is Paris mum? Alla Lazareva, Paris BRIEFING Rain and strikes greeted the high-level meeting taking place in the French capital. Widespread social protests monopolized the press to such a degree that on the day of the Normandy Summit, not one of the major French television channels even mentioned what was going on in the Elysée Palace in their evening news edi- tions. The following morning, the printed press was not a whole REUTERS PHОТО: lot more informative. THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #12 (142) December 2019 6 BRIEFING | “Paris summit renews dialog but no serious political pro- Paris really does have its own game plan for the gas chess- gress.” That was the headline in Le Monde’s report. “Sum- board. From the start of talks about a new gas supply contract ming up Normandy Summit: No one agreed to anything” was with Russia, France has been actively agitating for a contract the headline in the HuffPost France edition. “Ukraine-Russia involving Ukraine as the transit partner for 10 years. A recent Summit: so-so results,” wrote Libération. Where Ukrainians interview with Loïk Le Floch-Prigent, the one-time president were blowing on cold water and grabbing their hearts at every of Gaz de France, known as Engie today, published on the new fake coming from Russian media, the French focused on Entreprendre.fr site was very telling. In it, Prigent pragmati- something else entirely. cally and unsentimentally explained the French interest in Macron’s new Russia policy worried all those who were having Russian gas come to the West specifically through concerned that Ukraine would be forced into capitulation at Ukraine: it’s not just cheaper than through Nord Stream and the Paris summit. Despite paralyzed public transit on Sun- from LPG terminals – he claims France could save “billions day just before the talks, not only Paris Ukrainians and their of euros” – but it’s politically savvy, so that Germany doesn’t friends came out to a “No Capitulation!” rally. The president get too strong. of the World Congress of Ukrainians, Pavlo Grod, came from The fact that the morning after the meeting of the “Nor- Canada, Ukrainian activists from Portugal and Belgium ad- mandy quartet” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire dressed the crowd, and even soldiers who had done battle promised in Moscow to find “legal ways of getting around in eastern Ukraine took the podium. “Russia is the enemy. sanctions” was surely no coincidence. The minister, of Ukraine is a unitary state. No elections in occupied terri- course, had arrived for bilateral talks that had been planned tory until Russian weapons leave and the borders are under well before. But new sanctions against Nord Stream II, pro- Ukrainian control.” These were the red lines Grod listed in vided that they are approved by mid-December, will create his speech on Carré Saint-Michel. enormous problems for French business, which very active operating in Russia’s energy sector. Only three weeks re- main until the new gas agreement between Russia and the WHERE FOR KYIV IT WAS IMPORTANT NOT TO GIVE UP ANY TERRITORY, EU has to be signed. The “Ukrainian way” would make it FOR MOSCOW IT WAS TO PROMOTE ITS LITTLE “WISHES” ABOUT SPECIAL possible to more comfortably adjust resources and decide STATUS FOR DONBAS, AMNESTY FOR THE MILITANTS, AND ELECTIONS IN on a strategy. ORDILO, AS WELL AS TO FORCE THE WEST TO SWALLOW THE POSSIBLE The stall in the gas talks is one of the reasons why the French press was fairly limp in commenting the results of ANSCHLUSS WITH BELARUS. FOR FRANCE, THERE WERE ITS OWN the Normandy summit. Where for Kyiv it was important not ECONOMIC INTERESTS AT STAKE IN THE TALKS to give up any territory, for Moscow it was to promote its lit- tle “wishes” about special status for Donbas, amnesty for the militants, and elections in ORDiLO, as well as to force the At the closing press conference, President Volodymr West to swallow the possible anschluss with Belarus. For Zelenskiy noted almost exactly the same markers that France, there were its own economic interests at stake in Ukraine was not prepared to concede: independent for- the talks: to restore fruitful and profitable commercial ties eign policy; control over the border before any elections in with Russia. In this context, peace in the Donbas becomes ORDiLO; Crimea and Donbas belong to Ukraine. The only a key element to a comfortable investment climate in all of thing he avoided was calling Russia the aggressor, the en- Eastern Europe. emy. Whether that was for diplomatic reasons or for other “Prior to the summit, many skeptics had the impression reasons, only time will tell. that it would be a game of three against one, but this did not “On the international stage, Zelenskiy is slowly turning happen,” says WCU President Pavlo Grod. “Paris and Berlin into Poroshenko,” joked a French colleague who was at the acted neutrally. The problem remains Russia’s status, which talks. “This is good for Kyiv. When it comes to domestic pol- supposedly ‘only has some influence with the separatists.’ In icy, there was a lot you could pick a fight over with Petro, but the end, Ukraine did not lose in these talks.” he was a strong negotiator.” We don’t know what Putin said to Zelenskiy behind The presence of Aleksei Miller, head of Gazprom at the closed doors, as even photographers were not allowed to Elysée Palace with an entire passel of top Russian officials peek in and capture the moment. Public information sug- from the energy sector left no doubts that Moscow was hop- gests that Ukraine did not do badly at all. Outraged articles in ing to push through its own version of a new gas contract with the French press about the GRU base of specialized killers in Europe this coming year: force Ukraine to reject the court the French Alps and interference in French elections, as well cases it has won and agree to cheese in a mousetrap, that is, as Germany’s expulsion of Russian diplomats, show that the cheap gas in return for political concessions. West has also drawn some red lines in relations with Putin. “Our apartment has gas,” Putin lamely tried to joke in re- The Libération paper allowed itself some sarcastic re- sponse to journalists.
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