Knock & Ballyhaunis, Co. Mayo, Mayo

14. Knock & Ballyhaunis, Co. Mayo.

The towns of Knock and Ballyhaunis were analysed on both a stand-alone and a grouped basis.

14.1. Knock (Stand Alone): 14.1.1. Summary Details

Knock Town is situated in east Mayo, approximately 35km from Castlebar and 64km from Galway City. Knock airport is located approximately 13km from the centre of the town. The population of Knock is currently 1,435 as per the preliminary results of the 2006 Census, this is projected to increase to 2,500 by 2016 (see Appendix A Table 1). It is forecast approximately 400 residential units will be constructed in Knock over the next ten years.

In terms of I/C load, there is one large industrial/commercial customer in Knock town, The Knock House Hotel. There are potentially five medium I/C customers and 45 small commercial customers in the area.

Knock is located 8.4km from the town of Claremorris where it is proposed to make the connection to the Natural Gas Distribution Network. Consequentially, the feeder main from Knockroe BV Station to Claremorris would need to be reinforced to support the expected additional load.

14.1.2. Summary Load Analysis:

Knock Town, Co. Mayo. Source: Networks cost estimates report June 2006. I/C Load Summary Forecast: Total EAC 2014 2,784 Mwh 95,021 Therms Peak Day 2014 18,070 Kwh 617 Therms

New Housing Summary Forecast:

New Housing Load (Therm) 208,000 (year 10) New Housing Load (Mwh) 6,096 (year 10)

14.1.3. Solutions:

It would be necessary to install 85 to 4 Bar pressure reduction facilities at Knockroe AGI on the existing Mayo – Galway pipeline. This AGI would feed the local network comprising of approximately 9.1 km of 250 & 180mm PE (SDR 11) feeder main and 3.7km of 180, 125 & 90mm PE (SDR 11) distribution main.

New Towns Analysis Page 72 of 85 14.1.4. Cost Estimates:

Knock Town, Co. Mayo. Source: Networks cost estimates report June 2006. Estimated Capital expenditure Costs for feeder and Distribution Mains:

Item Costs € Feeder / Distribution Main Construction* €2,577,101 Total Estimated Costs €2,577,101

These estimated costs include for the following: District regulator installations, special engineering difficulties (crossings), archaeological survey, local authority charges, adverse ground conditions, pre-tender investigations, insurance, design, administration, material procurement and construction contracts.

* The estimates do not include for: First response costs and AGI costs. New housing estate mains, service or meter costs. Industrial / Commercial mains, service or meter costs.

14.1.5. Business Modelling:

€m NPV @ 5.74% Distribution Revenue 1.1 Capex -2.9 Contributions 0.1 Opex -0.8 Distribution NPV -2.5

Transmission Onshore Revenue 0.3 Entry Revenue 0.2 Capex - AGI 0.0 Initial Capex - Land & Tee Opex -0.2 Transmission NPV 0.3

Total NPV -2.18

Connection of Knock Town to the network would result in a negative net present value (NPV) of €2.18m and therefore appears to be uneconomic on a stand-alone basis.

New Towns Analysis Page 73 of 85 14.2. Ballyhaunis (Stand Alone): 14.2.1. Summary Details

Ballyhaunis is located approximately 16.5km east of Claremorris and is considered to be a strong market town. The population of Ballyhaunis is currently 2,595 as per the preliminary results of the 2006 Census, this is projected to increase to 3,950 by 2016 (see Appendix A Table 1). Ballyhaunis has existing housing numbers of approximately 550 units. It is forecast that up to 1000 new residential connections will be made over the next ten years.

There is one potential Contract / Large customer in the town namely, Dawn Meats. There are also a number of Medium to Small I/C customer with potential. The local Chamber of Commerce is currently developing a business and technology park on a 4.5 acre site.

Taking Ballyhaunis as a stand-alone town it is proposed that Ballyhaunis would be connected directly from Claremorris. Ballyhaunis is 10.1km from the town of Knock. If the option of supplying Ballyhaunis grouped with and fed from Knock town proved viable, the feeder main from Knockroe BV Station to Claremorris would need to be reinforced to support the expected additional load of both Knock and Ballyhaunis.

This section will analyse the connection of Ballyhaunis under two scenarios, i.e. Ballyhaunis on a stand-alone basis, and grouped with and fed from Knock.

14.2.2. Summary Load Analysis:

Ballyhaunis, Co. Mayo. Source: Networks cost estimates report July 2006. I/C Load Summary Forecast: Total EAC 2014 30,915 (Mwh) 1,055,123 (Therms) Peak Day 2014 146,461 (Kwh) 4,999 (Therms)

New Housing Summary Forecast:

New Housing Load (Therm) 520,000 (year 10) New Housing Load (Mwh) 15,240 (year 10)

14.2.3. Solutions:

It would be necessary to install 85 to 4 Bar pressure reduction facilities at Knockroe AGI on the existing Mayo – Galway pipeline. This AGI would feed the local network comprising of approximately 9.8km of 180mm PE (SDR 11) feeder main and 4.7km of 180mm, 125mm & 90mm PE (SDR 11) distribution main.

New Towns Analysis Page 74 of 85 14.2.4. Cost Estimates:

Source: Networks cost estimates report July 2006. Estimated Capital expenditure Costs for feeder and Distribution Mains:

Ballyhaunis Stand Alone Item Costs € Feeder / Distribution Main Construction* €4,476,203 Total Estimated Costs €4,476,203

* The estimates do not include for: First response costs and AGI costs. New housing estate mains, service or meter costs. Industrial / Commercial mains, service or meter costs.

14.2.5. Business Modelling:

€m NPV @ 5.74% Distribution Revenue 3.8 Capex -5.2 Contributions 0.2 Opex -0.9 Distribution NPV -2.1

Transmission Onshore Revenue 1.4 Entry Revenue 0.8 Capex - AGI 0.0 Initial Capex - Land & Tee Opex -0.2 Transmission NPV 2.1

Total NPV -0.08

Connection of Ballyhaunis to the network would result in a negative net present value (NPV) of €0.08m and therefore appears to be uneconomic on a stand-alone basis.

New Towns Analysis Page 75 of 85 14.3. Grouped Option:

This option analyses Ballyhaunis grouped with, and fed from Knock Town.

14.3.1. Cost Estimates:

Source: Networks cost estimates report July 2006. Estimated Capital expenditure Costs for feeder and Distribution Mains:

Item Costs € Ballyhaunis: Feeder / Distribution Main Construction* €2,816,488 Knock: Feeder / Distribution Main Construction* €3,108,600 Total Estimated Costs €5,925,088

* The estimates do not include for: First response costs and AGI costs. New housing estate mains, service or meter costs. Industrial / Commercial mains, service or meter costs.

14.3.2. Business Modelling:

€m NPV @ 5.74% Distribution Revenue 4.9 Capex -7.0 Contributions 0.3 Opex -1.7 Distribution NPV -3.6

Transmission Onshore Revenue 1.7 Entry Revenue 1.0 Capex - AGI 0.0 Initial Capex - Land & Tee Opex -0.3 Transmission NPV 2.4

Total NPV -1.16

Grouping Ballyhaunis with Knock town results in a negative net present value (NPV) of €1.16m and therefore appears to be uneconomic on a stand-alone basis.

New Towns Analysis Page 76 of 85 The information shown on this plan is a general guide and the accuracy thereof cannot be guaranteed. Service pipes are not shown but their presence should be anticipated. No liability is accepted for any discrepancy, omission or deviation and the actual position of mains and services must be verified and established on site before any mechanical excavating plant is used. All dimensions are in metres unless otherwise stated

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Claremorris

Distribution Operations Design Department - DUBLIN

Title / Project : Plot Date: Drawn: 28/06/06 E.M.

Scale: 0 1 2 3 4 km Knock / Ballyhaunis Feeder Mains 1:50000

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CF CF 180mm 4 bar Feeder Main. The information shown on this plan is a general guide and the accuracy thereof cannot be guaranteed. Service pipes are not shown but their presence should be anticipated. No liability is accepted for any discrepancy, omission or deviation and the actual position of mains services must be verified and established on site before any mechanical excavating plant is used. All dimensions are in metres unless otherwise stated Bord Gáis Networks recommends that excavation works within the vacinity of gas pipelines are carried out in accordance with the Health and Safety Authority 'Code of Practice for Avoiding Danger from Underground Services' CF Not Archived - Alternative : |Designs|Dublin|Network Extension|2006 Projects|Adj. Towns to Network|Ballyhaunis,Co. Mayo|Ballyha 15. Mayo - Galway Towns Results Towns on a Stand Alone Basis Only

Initial TOTAL RANK Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution Onshore Entry Transmission Transmission Transmission RANK NPV / NPV / Included (1) / Towns + Contributions Capex - NPV NPV / Revenue Capex Opex NPV (€m) Revenue Revenue Capex Opex NPV (€m) NPV Therm kWh Excluded (0) Land & Tee (€m) Therm

Castlebar 7.06 -6.10 0.44 -1.32 0.08 3.79 2.18 -0.37 -0.14 -0.17 5.29 5.37 1 €21.39 1 €0.73 1

Craughwell 1.93 -1.49 0.17 -0.09 0.53 0.56 0.32 -0.69 0.00 -0.17 0.02 0.55 2 €14.37 2 €0.49 1

Westport 4.71 -5.66 0.19 -1.49 -2.26 1.99 1.15 -0.37 -0.14 -0.17 2.45 0.19 3 €1.46 4 €0.05 1

Athenry 2.41 -2.19 0.19 -0.13 0.29 0.70 0.40 -1.03 0.00 -0.17 -0.10 0.19 4 €3.98 3 €0.14 1

Ballyhaunis** 3.78 -5.22 0.21 -0.90 -2.13 1.41 0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.17 2.05 -0.08 5 -€0.82 5 -€0.03 0

Headford* 2.07 -2.93 0.18 -0.18 -0.86 0.60 0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.78 -0.09 6 -€2.12 6 -€0.07 1

Claremorris 2.69 -2.91 0.20 -0.78 -0.80 0.78 0.45 -0.69 -0.29 -0.17 0.08 -0.73 7 -€13.72 7 -€0.47 1

Tuam 4.02 -5.85 0.30 -0.31 -1.84 1.17 0.68 -0.73 -0.29 -0.17 0.65 -1.19 8 -€15.03 8 -€0.51 1

Knock** 1.07 -2.89 0.10 -0.80 -2.52 0.32 0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.34 -2.18 9 -€99.28 10 -€3.39 0

Ballina / 5.59 -8.66 0.31 -2.12 -4.88 1.99 1.15 -0.73 -0.29 -0.35 1.76 -3.12 10 -€23.66 9 -€0.81 1 Crossmolina

Ballinrobe 1.14 -4.04 0.10 -0.86 -3.67 0.34 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 -3.12 11 -€134.57 12 -€4.59 0

Foxford 0.77 -3.88 0.05 -0.71 -3.77 0.24 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 -3.38 12 -€203.32 14 -€7.00 0

Kiltimagh 0.79 -3.94 0.06 -0.70 -3.79 0.25 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 -3.40 13 -€200.31 13 -€6.90 0

Swinford 1.54 -5.16 0.10 -0.73 -4.24 0.50 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 -3.46 14 -€102.88 11 -€3.54 0

Belmullet 1.01 -3.48 0.07 -3.79 -6.19 0.32 0.19 -0.73 -0.29 0.00 -0.51 -6.70 15 -€309.59 15 -€10.56 0

+ Includes Distribution Meter and Service Costs * Dependent on Tuam being connected ** Dependent on Claremorris being connected

New Towns Analysis Page 81 of 85 Stand Alone and Grouped Towns

Initial TOTAL RANK Distribution Distribution DistributionDistribution Onshore Entry Transmission TransmissionTransmission RANK NPV / NPV / Included (1) / Contributions Capex - NPV NPV / Towns Revenue Capex + Opex NPV (€m) Revenue Revenue Capex Opex NPV (€m) NPV Therm kWh Excluded (0) Land & Tee (€m) Therm

Castlebar 7.06 -6.10 0.44 -1.32 0.08 3.79 2.18 -0.37 -0.14 -0.17 5.29 5.37 1 €21.39 1 €0.73 1

Craughwell 1.93 -1.49 0.17 -0.09 0.53 0.56 0.32 -0.69 0.00 -0.17 0.02 0.55 2 €14.37 2 €0.49 1

Westport 4.71 -5.66 0.19 -1.49 -2.26 1.99 1.15 -0.37 -0.14 -0.17 2.45 0.19 3 €1.46 4 €0.05 1

Athenry 2.41 -2.19 0.19 -0.13 0.29 0.70 0.40 -1.03 0.00 -0.17 -0.10 0.19 4 €3.98 3 €0.14 1

Headford* 2.07 -2.93 0.18 -0.18 -0.86 0.60 0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.78 -0.09 5 -€2.12 5 -€0.07 1

Claremorris 2.69 -2.91 0.20 -0.78 -0.80 0.78 0.45 -0.69 -0.29 -0.17 0.08 -0.73 6 -€13.72 7 -€0.47 1

Ballyhaunis*** - 4.86 -7.01 0.30 -1.71 -3.56 1.74 1.00 0.00 0.00 -0.35 2.39 -1.16 7 -€10.04 6 -€0.34 1 Knock**

Tuam 4.02 -5.85 0.30 -0.31 -1.84 1.17 0.68 -0.73 -0.29 -0.17 0.65 -1.19 8 -€15.03 8 -€0.51 1

Ballina - 5.59 -8.66 0.31 -2.12 -4.88 1.99 1.15 -0.73 -0.29 -0.35 1.76 -3.12 9 -€23.66 9 -€0.81 1 Crossmolina

Ballinrobe 1.14 -4.04 0.10 -0.86 -3.67 0.34 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 -3.12 10 -€134.57 11 -€4.59

Belmullet 1.01 -3.48 0.07 -3.79 -6.19 0.32 0.19 -0.73 -0.29 0.00 -0.51 -6.70 11 -€309.59 12 -€10.56 0

Kiltimagh - Foxford - 3.10 -10.46 0.21 -2.14 -9.29 0.99 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.56 -7.73 12 -€114.97 10 -€3.96 0 Swinford

+ Includes Distribution Meter and Service Costs * Dependent on Tuam being connected ** Dependent on Claremorris being connected *** Dependent on Claremorris and Knock being connected

New Towns Analysis Page 82 of 85 Distribution Transmission TOTAL NPV RANK NPV / RANK NPV / Connection Viable Towns + NPV (€m) NPV (€m) (€m) NPV Therm Therm Ranking

Castlebar 0.08 5.29 €5.37 1 €21.39 1 1

Craughwell 0.53 0.02 €0.55 2 €14.37 2 2

Westport -2.26 2.45 €0.19 3 €1.46 4 3

Athenry 0.29 -0.10 €0.19 4 €3.98 3 4

Ballyhaunis***Claremorris & -0.80 0.08 -€0.73 6 -€13.72 7 5 Knock**

Tuam -3.56 2.39 -€1.16 7 -€10.04 6 6

Headford* -1.84 0.65 -€1.19 8 -€15.03 8 7 Ballina & -0.86 0.78 -€0.09 5 -€2.12 5 8 Crossmolina Total NPV €0.01

-4.88 1.76 -€3.12 9 -€23.66 9 9 Non - Viable Distribution Transmission TOTAL NPV RANK NPV / RANK NPV / Connection + Towns NPV (€m) NPV (€m) (€m) NPV Therm Therm Ranking

Kiltimagh, Foxford & -9.29 1.56 -€7.73 12 -€114.97 10 10 Swinford

Ballinrobe -3.67 0.54 -€3.12 10 -€134.57 11 11 Belmullet -6.19 -0.51 -€6.70 11 -€309.59 12 12

+ Please note that this connection ranking takes into account that the connection of some towns is dependent on other towns e.g. Headford, Ballyhaunis & Knock and hence is different from the straight forward NPV ranking. * Dependent on Tuam being connected ** Dependent on Claremorris being connected New Towns Analysis *** Dependent on Claremorris and Knock being connected Page 83 of 85 Appendix A

Population Growth in Prospective New Towns:

Preliminary Results of Forecast Population Forecast New Domestic Town 2006 Census 2016 Connections by 2016

Athenry 4041 6450 1000 Tuam 7897 13000 1600 Claremorris 3170 6000 1000 Westport 6598 8000 500 Castlebar 12884 19500 2000 Ballina 11449 15500 1100 Crossmolina 1769 2070 100 Belmullet 2009 2230 200 Headford 1350 4150 1000 Craughwell 1351 2700 1000 Ballinrobe 3160 4240 400 Foxford 878 1420 200 Swinford 2678 3760 400 Kiltimagh 1538 2000 185 Knock Town 1435 2500 400 Ballyhaunis 2595 3950 1000

New Towns Analysis Page 84 of 85 Appendix B

Cumulative Projected C ustomer Numbers

2010 2013 2017

Industrial and Industrial and Industrial and Town Housing Housing Housing Commercial Commercial Commercial

Ballina 63 330 78 660 81 1100 Crossmolina 10 30 13 60 14 100 Castlebar 77 600 94 1200 99 2000 Claremorris 33 300 40 600 42 1000 Westport 62 150 79 300 83 500 Athenry 19 300 23 600 25 1000 Tuam 27 480 34 960 35 1600 Craughwell 4 300 5 600 5 1000 Headford 10 300 12 600 13 1000 Ballyhaunis 27 300 33 600 35 1000 Knock 12 120 15 240 15 400 Total 344 3210 426 6420 447 10700

New Towns Analysis Page 85 of 85