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Infrastructure Investments – INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON AN EMERGING ASSET CLASS DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaft eingereicht an der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universität Regensburg vorgelegt von DANIEL WURSTBAUER (MS CRE) Berichterstatter: Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schäfers Prof. Dr. Klaus Röder Tag der Disputation: 19.11.2015 INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS – EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON AN EMERGING ASSET CLASS DANIEL WURSTBAUER TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 General Motivation ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Research Questions ............................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Course of Analysis .............................................................................................................. 5 1.4 References ......................................................................................................................... 7 2 Inflation Hedging and Protection Characteristics of Infrastructure and Real Estate Assets ............................................................................................................................ 8 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Intuition on Infrastructure and Inflation ............................................................................ 11 2.3 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 15 2.4 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 17 2.4.1 OLS Regression Model ............................................................................................... 17 2.4.2 Co-Integration and Granger Causality Tests ............................................................... 18 2.4.3 Inflation Protection .................................................................................................... 20 2.5 Data ................................................................................................................................. 22 2.6 Empirical Results ............................................................................................................... 25 2.6.1 OLS Regression Model ............................................................................................... 25 2.6.2 Co-Integration and Granger Causality Tests ............................................................... 28 2.6.3 Inflation Protection .................................................................................................... 31 2.7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 33 2.8 Endnotes .......................................................................................................................... 35 2.9 Appendix ......................................................................................................................... 36 2.10 References ..................................................................................................................... 37 3 Solvency II and Portfolio Efficiency – The Case of Real Estate and Infrastructure Investments ................................................................................................................. 43 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 44 3.2 Solvency II Framework and Market Risk Standard Formula ................................................ 45 3.3 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 49 3.3.1 Solvency II ................................................................................................................. 49 I TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.3.2 Real Estate and Infrastructure Allocation in Insurers’ Portfolios .................................. 52 3.4 Data and Descriptive Statistics .......................................................................................... 53 3.4.1 Data Selection ........................................................................................................... 53 3.4.2 Input Data for SCR Calculations and Descriptive Statistics .......................................... 55 3.5 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 58 3.6 Results ............................................................................................................................. 61 3.7 Discussion and Practical Implications ................................................................................ 67 3.8 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 69 3.9 Endnotes .......................................................................................................................... 71 3.10 Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 72 3.11 References ..................................................................................................................... 74 4 Can Common Risk Factors Explain Infrastructure Equity Returns? Evidence from European Capital Markets ........................................................................................... 79 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 80 4.2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 81 4.3 Infrastructure Data Issues ................................................................................................. 83 4.4 Methodology and Research Design................................................................................... 85 4.5 Empirical Results ............................................................................................................... 88 4.5.1 Descriptive Statistics .................................................................................................. 88 4.5.2 Time Series Results .................................................................................................... 90 4.5.3 Discussion ................................................................................................................. 98 4.6. Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 101 4.7 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................ 103 4.8 Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 104 4.9 References ..................................................................................................................... 107 5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 110 5.1 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 110 5.2 Final Remarks and Further Research ............................................................................... 113 5.3 References ..................................................................................................................... 116 II 1 Introduction 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 GENERAL MOTIVATION The term “infrastructure” refers to the backbone of each economy, which provides the basic goods and services to society, in order to promote economic and social welfare and development. Accordingly, infrastructure is typically defined in terms of the respective industrial sectors involved in the provision of these key essential services for the community. Specifically, infrastructure can be divided into economic and social. Whereas economic infrastructure includes the transportation, utilities and telecommunications sectors, social infrastructure typically comprises the health and educational sectors (Weber and Alfen, 2010). Due to factors such as climate change, growth, technological process and urbanization, the worldwide demand for new infrastructure is expected to expand significantly over the next few decades. Additionally, the existing infrastructure in countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is aging rapidly and therefore needs to be renewed, upgraded or maintained. Numerous studies attempt to quantify these future investment needs on a global basis. For instance, the OECD estimates approximately $71.1 trillion infrastructure investment demands by 2030 (OECD, 2006; OECD, 2007). More recently, the OECD even raised the number to $82.2 trillion (OECD, 2012), which corresponds to annual investment needs of nearly $3 trillion. The mismatch between investment needs and financial resources is widely known as the “infrastructure gap” (Inderst, 2013).
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