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Three Essays on the Social, Economic, and Demographic Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations 2015 Three Essays on the Social, Economic, and Demographic Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility Thomas Markley Anderson University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations Part of the Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons Recommended Citation Anderson, Thomas Markley, "Three Essays on the Social, Economic, and Demographic Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility" (2015). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 1588. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1588 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1588 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Three Essays on the Social, Economic, and Demographic Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility Abstract The demographic phenomenon of “low fertility” has received considerable attention over the last three decades within academic, political, and public spheres. While a large body of research has led to a deeper understanding of the underlying social and economic dimensions of low fertility, current theoretical and empirical approaches fail to explain puzzles pertaining to within and across population heterogeneity in fertility rates. This dissertation is comprised of three papers that investigate the social, economic, and demographic causes and consequences of low fertility. Chapter 1 sets forth a new theoretical approach to examining the interrelations between low fertility, socioeconomic development, and gender equity among developed countries. The main findings of this chapter are that 1) the pace and onset of socioeconomic development explain a significant proportion of the variation in fertility among developed countries, 2) low fertility may facilitate changes in gender norms through a “gender-equity dividend”, and 3) contrary to Second Demographic Transition theory, low fertility may be a transitory phase of the demographic transition. Whereas the Chapter 1 looks cross-nationally at gender and fertility dynamics, Chapter 2 takes a micro-level approach by exploring the relationship between fertility and gender norms in the United States. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY 79), I find that both men and women with progressive views on gender equity have lower fertility than their traditional counterparts, though these results were stronger, more consistent, and more significant across models for women. In Chapter 3 I argue that the rising costs of childrearing through “shadow education” have become a key fertility-reducing force across high, medium, and low-income countries. To investigate this hypothesis, I use data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and find videncee of a “quality-quantity tradeoff” both within and across populations due to costly shadow education. Collectively, the findings of this dissertation signal that the causes and consequences of low fertility are multifaceted and evolving across time and space. Degree Type Dissertation Degree Name Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Graduate Group Demography First Advisor Hans-Peter Kohler Keywords Gender Equity, Low Fertility, Quality-quantity Tradeoff, Socioeconomic Development Subject Categories Demography, Population, and Ecology | Sociology This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1588 THREE ESSAYS ON THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND DEMOGRAPHIC CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF LOW FERTILITY Thomas Markley Anderson A DISSERTATION in Demography Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2015 Supervisor of Dissertation _______________________ Hans-Peter Kohler, Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography Graduate Group Chairperson _______________________ Michel Guillot, Associate Professor of Sociology Dissertation Committee Hans-Peter Kohler, Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography Kristen Harknett, Associate Professor of Sociology Frank Furstenburg, Zellerbach Family Professor of Sociology THREE ESSAYS ON THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND DEMOGRAPHIC CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF LOW FERTILITY COPYRIGHT 2015 Thomas Markley Anderson This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ny-sa/2.0 iii Acknowledgements It’s true – to reach for the stars in the academic arena, one must have a strong desire to achieve that goal, but it cannot be accomplished without smart, generous, accommodating, and incredible people in my life. First and foremost, I would like to thank Hans-Peter Kohler for his wonderful mentorship over the years. Thank you for always believing in my ideas, for the hours of collaborative brainstorming and discussion, and for your constructive critiques and encouragement. Giving a student freedom to grow intellectually while remaining an actively engaged advisor must be a hard balance to strike, yet you pull it off remarkably. I would also like to thank Kristen Harknett for being an outstanding mentor and instructor. Throughout my time at Penn, you have always made me feel cared for by including me on matters and discussions related to my research interests. I also feel grateful having had the opportunity to learn from you in two courses. It was an honor to have you on my committee. A hardy thank you goes to Frank Furstenberg for your big-picture and out-of-the- box thinking. Your infectious smile and spirit light up the room, and it has been my pleasure getting to know you as a person and scholar. I am grateful for the opportunity to have learned from and worked with other faculty members in the PSC, including Michel Guillot, Irma Elo, Doug Ewbank, Chenoa Flippen, Emilio Parrado, and Herb Smith. The PSC staff keeps the gears moving, and I deeply appreciate all of the help I have received from Nykia Perez, Tanya Yang, Dawn iv Ryan, and Julia Crane. Outside of the PSC, I would like to thank Patricia Rea for her friendship over the last four years. A special thanks goes out to my cohort for being so wonderful from day one of the program. From tense daylong review sessions to laughing, debating, and storytelling at our cohort get-togethers, you five have served as a consistent source of support and smiles. Thank you to Edith for being the best “Cohort Mom” one could ask for; to Laura for always opening my eyes to new and exciting ideas and opportunities; to David for keeping me on track with fitness during the most stressful moments of the journey; to Megan for your unique perspectives and godly Stata abilities; and to Ezra for your frank yet insightful thoughts and kind-spirit. My family deserves the biggest thank you in the world. Mom, from day one you encouraged me to believe in my ideas and strive to do my best. I have always admired you as an educator and life-long learner, and I hope to follow in your footsteps by serving, in one capacity or another, as an inspiration to young minds. Dad, of all the things you have done for us boys, what I appreciate most is the sense of curiosity you have instilled in us over the years. Watching you get excited about the world’s little treasures, from history to geology to travel and beyond, has left an indelible impression on my drive to soak up as much knowledge as possible. You two are the most remarkable, talented, and caring parents in the world. And to Billy and Jimmy, thank you for guiding me through life and being exemplar role models. I know I can always count on you both for advice, help, or a laugh, and I hope you know that I will always be there for you. v My final thanks goes out to my other half, Aaron. Always making me feel special has been your first priority since the first day we met, and I sincerely thank you for all you do. vi ABSTRACT THREE ESSAYS ON THE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND DEMOGRAPHIC CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF LOW FERTILITY Thomas Markley Anderson Hans-Peter Kohler The demographic phenomenon of “low fertility” has received considerable attention over the last three decades within academic, political, and public spheres. While a large body of research has led to a deeper understanding of the underlying social and economic dimensions of low fertility, current theoretical and empirical approaches fail to explain puzzles pertaining to within and across population heterogeneity in fertility rates. This dissertation is comprised of three papers that investigate the social, economic, and demographic causes and consequences of low fertility. Chapter 1 sets forth a new theoretical approach to examining the interrelations between low fertility, socioeconomic development, and gender equity among developed countries. The main findings of this chapter are that 1) the pace and onset of socioeconomic development explain a significant proportion of the variation in fertility among developed countries, 2) low fertility may facilitate changes in gender norms through a “gender-equity dividend”, and 3) contrary to Second Demographic Transition theory, low fertility may be a transitory phase of the demographic transition. Whereas the Chapter 1 looks cross-nationally at gender and fertility dynamics, Chapter 2 takes a micro-level approach by exploring the relationship between fertility and gender norms in the United States. Using the National vii Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY 79), I find that both men and women
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