Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020
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Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020 Impacts of COVID-19 In these unprecedented times, Piper Sandler hopes you and your families are healthy and safe. We have compiled this indus try update to assist operators, investors and industry participants in this time of tremendous upheaval. We look forward to better times and continuing our relationship with you all. • Restaurant companies of all sizes received CARES Act funding of up to CARES Act $10 million Funding … • However funding for the program ran out on April 16th leaving many but Not to All operators out in the cold and the industry advocating for additional funding, in particular for independent restaurants • Large restaurant companies have gone on the offensive to strengthen balance sheets through drawdowns of revolver and new debt and equity issuances Large Companies Beef up Balance • Notable financings announced from Landry’s, YUM!, Dave & Buster’s, Sheets Shake Shack, Cheesecake Factory and Darden • Investor focus on liquidity likely indicates more public company financings to come • Massive unemployment across the industry impacting lives and broader economy Disruption Continues to be • Bankruptcies and permanent closures begin spreading Widespread • M&A markets meaningfully disrupted including terminated TGI Fridays merger into a SPAC • The restaurant industry has come together like never before to offer support and assistance to industry employees experiencing extraordinary Restaurant hardship in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. The following are just a Industry Rallies few of many initiatives providing immediate relief to restaurant workers: To Support James Beard foundation food & beverage industry relief fund, Employees #restaurantrescue, #saverestaurants, ROAR (relief opportunities for all restaurants) on change.org, CARES Act, Restaurant relief America RESTAURANT INDUSTRY UPDATE | 1 Investment Banking | Monthly Newsletter February 2016 | 1 Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020 COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact to the Restaurant Industry While the sales impact to Restaurants is severe, consumers are embracing off-premise in a big way including Full Service and Fine Dining restaurants that may create a positive long-term sales layer for these concepts Estimated SSS Impact by Segment through May (1) (20% - 40%) (40% - 50%) (~80%) (80% - 90%) Quick Service Fast Casual Casual Dining Fine Dining Casual Dining Concepts Growing Off-Premise Sales: AUV Off-Premise Sales Mix 47% 35% 30% 18% 16% 10% Outback CAKE Chili's Pre-COVID-19 Post-COVI D-19 Pizza and Wing Concepts SSS Performance (Franchise Q1 2020 SSS) Pizza and Wing brands benefitting from delivery focus with closures of dining rooms 11.5% 10.0% 9.9% 8.6% 7.1% 4.7% 5.1% 3.6% 4.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.8% P1 P2 P3 Q1 20 WING PZZA DPZ (1) Wall Street equity research RESTAURANT INDUSTRY UPDATE | 2 Investment Banking | Monthly Newsletter February 2016 | 1 Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020 COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact to the Restaurant Industry (Cont.) Relative Price Chart: 02/14/20 – 04/17/20 (1)(2)(3) Investor reaction to public restaurant companies has been severe and well beyond the broader market despite a recent rebound in the past few days 125 S&P 500 (15.0%) 100 Quick Service 75 (20.2%) Relative Price 50 Fast Casual (22.3%) 25 2/14 2/23 3/3 3/12 3/21 3/30 4/8 4/17 Full Service S&P 500 Quick Service Fast Casual Full Service (55.3%) Median EV / EBITDA (1)(2)(3)(4) COVID-19 impact on forward multiples by segment 25.3x 17.0x 15.9x 15.2x 15.1x 5.5x Fast Casual Quick Service Full Service CY2020 CY2021 Source: Capital IQ as of 04/17/20 RESTAURANT INDUSTRY UPDATE | 3 (1) Quick Service Index includes: DPZ, DNKN, JACK, LOCO, MCD, PZZA, QSR, TACO, TAST, WEN, YUM (2) Fast Casual Index includes: CMG, FAT, FRGI, NDLS, PBPB, SBUX, SHAK, WING (3)InvestmentFull Service Index Bankingincludes: ARKR, BBQ| Monthly, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE,Newsletter CBRL, CHUY, DENN, DIN, DRI, EAT, JAX, KRUS, LUB, PLAY, RRGB, RUTH, STKS, TXRH February 2016 | 1 (4) Per Wall Street consensus estimates; represents EBITDA after pre-opening and share-based compensation expense Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020 Research analysts estimates of the impact of COVID-19 v ary broadly with some projecting modest sales and profitability declines in the second half of 2020 and near full recovery in 2021 while the more bearish views project significant sales declines throughout 2020 and lingering effects through 2021. This will be an evolving story that Piper will continue to monitor. COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact to the Restaurant Industry (Cont.) Quick Service: Consensus Estimates % Change 02/14/20 – 04/17/20 (1)(3) Revenue EBITDA EPS CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 (1.2%) (0.1%) (0.0%) (0.5%) (2.2%) (1.3%) (1.8%) (0.6%) (5.2%) (4.0%) (4.1%) (3.9%) (8.0%) (6.0%) (7.1%) (7.5%) (11.0%) (10.8%) (13.3%) (15.2%) (9.7%) (14.5%) (16.4%) (22.6%) (26.8%) (29.8%) (23.7%) (27.7%) (34.3%) (38.1%) (41.0%) (48.3%) (62.5%) (61.8%) (66.8%) (105.8%) Fast Casual: Consensus Estimates % Change 02/14/20 – 04/17/20 (2)(3) Revenue EBITDA EPS CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 16.7% 3.0% (2.4%) (2.5%) (1.8%) (1.3%) (6.2%) (5.7%) (4.1%) (5.5%) (2.9%) (3.3%) (5.8%) (10.9%) (13.8%) (15.1%) (14.3%) (30.2%) (19.7%) (27.6%) (26.8%) (25.8%) (35.2%) (35.6%) (33.2%) (48.0%) (47.5%) (70.1%) (61.2%) (74.5%) (93.0%) (136.6%) (142.9%) Max (192.9%) (199.5%) Median Min (275.5%) Source: Capital IQ as of 02/14/20 and 04/17/20 RESTAURANT INDUSTRY UPDATE | 4 (1) Quick Service Index includes: DNKN, DPZ, JACK, LOCO, MCD, PZZA, QSR, TACO, TAST, WEN, YUM (2) Fast Casual Index includes: CMG, FAT, FRGI, NDLS, PBPB, SBUX, SHAK, WING (3)InvestmentPer Wall Street consensus Banking estimates; | Monthlyrepresents EBITDA Newsletter after pre-opening and share-based compensation expense February 2016 | 1 Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020 Research analysts estimates of the impact of COVID-19 v ary broadly with some projecting modest sales and profitability declines in the second half of 2020 and near full recovery in 2021 while the more bearish views project significant sales declines throughout 2020 and lingering effects through 2021. This will be an evolving story that Piper will continue to monitor. COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact to the Restaurant Industry (Cont.) Casual Dining: Consensus Estimates % Change 02/14/20 – 04/17/20 (1)(3) Revenue EBITDA EPS CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 106.2% (3.3%) (1.9%) (1.2%) (1.4%) (7.0%) (19.8%) (16.6%) (8.5%) (20.5%) (8.2%) (7.4%) (32.3%) (17.2%) (23.7%) (16.7%) (28.1%) (50.9%) (24.9%) (58.5%) (68.9%) (32.5%) (49.8%) (52.3%) (80.6%) (102.6%) (131.9%) (125.0%) (134.8%) (162.5%) (149.4%) (227.3%) (309.5%) (591.6%) (611.3%) (597.5%) Fine Dining: Consensus Estimates % Change 02/14/20 – 04/17/20 (2)(3) Revenue EBITDA EPS CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 (7.2%) (5.9%) (4.0%) (9.1%) (13.2%) (16.2%) (19.4%) (13.3%) (10.3%) (31.9%) (23.2%) (23.5%) (37.0%) (21.8%) (40.5%) (16.6%) (31.1%) (52.7%) (43.5%) (45.4%) (34.5%) (53.8%) (39.2%) (41.1%) (45.9%) (74.6%) (59.0%) (75.5%) (73.9%) (94.2%) (112.3%) (131.5%) (157.3%) (203.6%) Max (261.9%) Median (366.7%) Min Source: Capital IQ as of 02/14/20 and 04/17/20 RESTAURANT INDUSTRY UPDATE | 5 (1) Casual Dining Index includes: BBQ, BJRI, BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, CHUY, DENN, DIN, DRI, EAT, JAX, KRUS, LUB, PLAY, RRGB, TXRH (2) Fine Dining Index includes: ARKR, RUTH, STKS (3)InvestmentPer Wall Street consensus Banking estimates; | Monthlyrepresents EBITDA Newsletter after pre-opening and share-based compensation expense February 2016 | 1 Restaurant Industry Update Week of April 20, 2020 COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact to the Restaurant Industry (Cont.) Consensus Research Change in Projected Performance: Pre-COVID 19 to Current Revenue EBITDA EPS CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 CQ2 2020 CQ3 2020 CY 2020 CY 2021 Quick Service (1)(5) Min (34.3%) (14.5%) (16.4%) (9.7%) (66.8%) (41.0%) (38.1%) (23.7%) (105.8%) (62.5%) (61.8%) (27.7%) Max (1.2%) (0.1%) (0.0%) (0.5%) (2.2%) (1.3%) (1.8%) (0.6%) (8.0%) (5.2%) (4.0%) (4.1%) Average (15.0%) (6.2%) (7.0%) (4.0%) (30.1%) (15.6%) (16.7%) (8.2%) (47.6%) (25.6%) (26.1%) (12.2%) Median (15.2%) (6.0%) (7.1%) (3.9%) (29.8%) (11.0%) (13.3%) (7.5%) (48.3%) (22.6%) (26.8%) (10.8%) Fast Casual (2)(5) Min (47.5%) (26.8%) (25.8%) (19.7%) (199.5%) (136.6%) (74.5%) (33.2%) (275.5%) (142.9%) (192.9%) (61.2%) Max (2.4%) (2.5%) (1.8%) (1.3%) (6.2%) (5.7%) 3.0% (4.1%) 16.7% (5.5%) (2.9%) (3.3%) Average (25.3%) (12.5%) (12.7%) (7.2%) (91.3%) (46.2%) (33.9%) (17.1%) (116.9%) (68.7%) (79.1%) (24.4%) Median (30.2%) (10.9%) (13.8%) (5.8%) (70.1%) (27.6%) (35.2%) (15.1%) (93.0%) (35.6%) (48.0%) (14.3%) Casual Dining (3)(5) Min (80.6%) (49.8%) (52.3%) (24.9%) (309.5%) (134.8%) (162.5%) (32.5%) (611.3%) (591.6%) (597.5%) (149.4%) Max (7.0%) (3.3%) (1.9%) (1.2%) (19.8%) (16.6%) (8.5%) (1.4%) (32.3%) 106.2% (20.5%) (8.2%) Average (44.9%) (20.4%) (22.5%) (9.0%) (129.1%) (61.1%) (68.5%) (17.2%) (271.6%) (147.1%) (181.5%) (40.0%) Median (50.9%) (17.2%) (23.7%) (7.4%) (131.9%) (58.5%) (68.9%) (16.7%) (227.3%) (102.6%) (125.0%) (28.1%) Fine Dining (4)(5) Min (73.9%) (39.2%) (41.1%) (16.6%) (112.3%) (59.0%) (45.9%) (34.5%) (366.7%) (261.9%) (131.5%) (94.2%) Max (13.2%) (7.2%)