Cranes Software International Ltd
Ready to take off!
We initiate coverage on Cranes Software International with a BUY recommendation. The company provides tools and solutions addressing the needs of its focused domain- the scientific and engineering community. Apart from these, the company has also established itself in consulting and training in this domain. It is furthering its position by making research investments in MEMS and wireless technology. We expect the company to post a CAGR of 45% in revenues over the next two years
At current market price of Rs 363, stock is currently available at an attractive valuation of 7.6xFY05E and 5.6xFY06E .We recommend a BUY with a two-year target price of Rs 618.
Analyst Vinod Chari+(91 22) 5675 4480 May 2004 ([email protected]) Dealing (+91 22)2685 0505 Sandeepa Arora 5540 9033 Biren Patel 5540 8601
It’s all about money, honey! Cranes Software International Ltd: Ready to take off!
Recommendation Buy Highlights • CMP Rs 363.5 The company addresses a niche domain of scientific and engineering community, 52 Wk H/L Rs 449/118 providing multi industry application of mathematics, statistics, data analysis, visualization Mkt Cap Rs 3.7bn and presentation. • It has proven ability of developing products in-house and using its own sales and marketing team to sell the product. Launch of SYSTAT 11.0 will contribute to revenue Share Holding Pattern % growth. Promoters 34.62 Institutional Investors 7.91 • Company has simultaneously established itself in areas of tool training, not specifically Other Investors 41.77 addressed by academic curricula, through Cranes Varsity, thus complementing its General Public 15.71 product business. • It has initiated investments in R&D in the sunrise areas of MEMS and wireless technology. • It has raised capital recently through a GDR issue with an objective of acquiring more IPs and funding focused acquisitions. Share Price Chart • The company is using its domain expertise to create consulting opportunities in modeling and simulation products. It is also helping it to develop customization skills around its product range.
Management CSIL’s Board of has considerable experience in technology innovation, general management, consulting and in leading diverse businesses. The founder Mr Asif Khader, Chairman Mr. Rudra Pratap of the Indian Institute of Science and the President Mr. Richard Gall, who was earlier with Texas Instruments lead the company.
Compelling valuations At current market price of Rs 363, stock is currently available at an attractive valuation of 7.6xFY05E and 5.6xFY06E in comparison to such peer product companies like I-Flex and Subex Systems. At FY06E, the potential stock price of the company works out to Rs 618. The present value of the stock at a discounted rate of 14% works out to be Rs 476. This gives the stock a 31% upside from current levels. We recommend a strong BUY on the company Comparison summary of product companies:
Company CMP(Rs) Net Sales Operating Profits OPM% PAT EPS(Rs) P/E Recomm
Rs mn FY04 FY05E FY04 FY05E FY04 FY05E FY04 FY05E FY04 FY05E FY04 FY05E I-Flex Solutions 544 7881 10209 2227 2785.8 28.3 27.3 1788 2133 24.0 28.6 22.7 19.0 Hold Subex Systems 276 879 1013 233 323 26.5 30.8 178 250 24.1 27.1 11.5 10.2 Buy Cranes Software 363 1137 1649 517 721 45.4 43.7 325 489 38.3 48.1 9.5 7.6 Buy
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Investment Rationale
Focus on a niche segment Cranes is present in the tools and utilities segment, which has a limited number of players globally. The company has been providing tools and solutions in scientific and engineering domain for over a decade. Starting with the domestic markets, the company has also successfully forayed into the global markets.
Creating strong revenue streams using proprietary products. The company has created strong revenue streams through products created in-house as well as existing products acquired from others. The company first acquired products like AISN’s TableCurve 2D, TableCurve 3D, and PeakFit and followed it up with SYSTAT. The most recent acquisition has been the Sigma Product Line from SPSS. These products have given Cranes very good brands and have helped them create strong revenue streams through the proprietary product. The proprietary products contribute to nearly 81% of total revenues
Proven ability of developing products in-house The company has a proven ability to develop products in-house. It has been able to leverage on its offshore development capabilities to create regular upgrades and product enhancements. Since their acquisition, there have been version enhancements such as SYSTAT 10.2, the Japanese version of SYSTAT 10.2 and TableCurve 3D 4.0.
The company is in the process of launching its most important upgrade, SYSTAT 11.0, which will move the SYSTAT product from a FORTRAN platform to C. This is expected to create strong revenue streams through user migration.
The company has been able to leverage on its sales and marketing network to successfully establish these products.
Training complements existing business The company has established itself in tool training, not specifically addressed by academic curricula, through Cranes Varsity. This has acted as a very good complement to the product business of the company. It is also the authorized training partner for players like Texas Instruments in niche technology areas such as DSP.
Revenues to grow at 45% All the above factors indicate that the company is poised on the cusp of high growth. Revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 45% over the next two years. This growth will be across all segments of the business, viz.- third party products, proprietary products and Cranes Varsity.
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R&D investments in sunrise areas The company has made initial investments in high growth, emerging areas like MEMS and nanotechnology, towards development of IPs. Once the company is able to create successful IPs, the commercialization of the IPs will aid revenue growth.
Creating consulting opportunities The company is using its domain expertise in scientific and engineering tools to create consulting opportunities in modeling and simulation products. The company has developed customization skills around its proprietary products. It is also offering consulting in its third party products. These are value-added services that bring higher revenues than merely selling shrink-wrapped products.
Concerns
Continuous investment in product required There has to be an ongoing investment in products during its entire life cycle. Products call for high investment in initial phase of research and development. Once the product is developed, it calls for high sales and marketing costs to establish a brand and rvice the product.
Product failures could affect earnings The product business calls for huge investments. The returns on these investments hinge on the success of the product. The company may find it difficult to recoup its investments in case of product failure. This will affect earnings and can dampen future valuations.
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Industry Background
The software product industry
Software products are patented software processes sold through licenses to users. These products usually address wide scale usage across the user segments.
The software product industry is a high risk- high return industry. The costs involved in this business are also high. This industry calls for investment in initial R&D costs. Once the product is developed, it calls for high sales and marketing costs to establish a brand and sustain the product. R&D and sales investment is continuous, as companies have to constantly upgrade products to stay ahead of competition.
The software product market is highly inelastic with branding and user comfort playing an important role. User comfort with the product translates into long-term product usage patterns.
Segments of the industry The software product market can be divided into three segments, System Level software: This is the generic software level, where a few players like Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Adobe etc dominate with significant market shares in their respective domains. Application software: These are niche application areas. Some of the major players in this segment are SAS, Cognos, Amdocs etc. Tools and utilities: This segment is the market for application tools and miscellaneous utilities. Major players in this segment are SPSS and Mathworks
Consolidation trend in the industry Due to the inelastic nature of the market with emphasis on brand and long term usage patterns, the product industry witnesses consolidation. Consolidation helps users to acquire not only product IPs but also brands and a ready user base. This helps companies to upgrade or complement existing products at lower incremental costs leveraging the existing brands and the ready user base.
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This kind of consolidation is witnessed a lot in the tools and utilities segment, where it is easier for the user to switch products.
Growth of the product industry The global software products market is estimated at US$180bn.While IT services have showed a worldwide growth of just 3.5% in 2003, following the downturn in the last couple of years, the global packaged software has bucked the trend growing over 8%. Software products account for an estimated 20% of the global IT spending. According to IDC estimates, the software product industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% over the next five years.
Statistical product industry At last year’s estimates, the worldwide market for statistical and data analysis products was estimated at $372mn. The top five players in the industry accounted for 56% of the market, due to consolidation. This industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.1% over the next five years.
Opportunities for Indian product companies India accounts for a very low share in the global IT products market, with a 0.2% market share of the global products market at US$ 1.4bn in 2003. This figure pales in comparison to the share of Indian IT services in the global markets. However, this also indicates a lot of growth potential for Indian product companies.
The recent NASSCOM – Mckinsey study indicates the Indian share of products related opportunities to touch a scale of US $ 8-11bn by 2008 from the current US $ 1.4bn. The Indian advantage comes from low development costs, large pool of talent, proven quality systems, offshore delivery capability and growing domain expertise.
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Company Background
Cranes Software International Ltd (CSIL) is a scientific and engineering products and solutions provider. Having initiated operations in 1991, CSIL offers scientific and engineering software products to its global customers, as well as consulting and training around these products. It has been able to compete successfully in global markets with its proprietary range of scientific and numerical products. The evolution of the company from a third party distributor to having its propretary products has been traced in Annexure 1.
The company’s presence in consulting and training has helped them in their scientific software products business. The company is also making investments in R&D to create IPs in sunrise technology areas such as MEMS, Nanotechnology etc.
Product distribution business CSIL made its entry into the scientific products with the distribution rights to MATLAB, the world’s leading technical computing software. This product has a current base of 500,000 technical users world-wide. Soon the company entered into new alliances and increased its portfolio to leverages its distribution strength. The company now has three different technology segments under its products distribution division: • Mathematical Modelling and Simulation tools • Embedded Software and Controls • Business Simulation and Optimisation solutions
Apart from distribution, the company is also offering customisation of solutions for products under the MATLAB range.
The details of the third party products of the company can be found in Annexure 2.
Own products business The company started its own product business with the acquisition of AISN software’s portfolio of visualisation software products, which are TableCurve 2D, Table Curve 3D and PeakFit. This range was further extended last year with the acquisition of SYSTAT range of product. Also, recently CSIL has acquired the Sigma Product Line (SPL) from SPSS Inc. for a total sum of US $ 13 million. The Sigma product range consists of products like SigmaPlot, SigmaStat, SigmaScan etc.
The company is using its own offshore R&D facilities to create regular updates for its range of products. Since acquiring products, the company has launched updates such as SYSTAT Version 10.2 and TableCurve 3D Version 4.0 have been launched. The company has also launched a Japanese version of SYSTAT 10.2.
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The global distribution of these products is supported by the company’s fully owned subsidiaries in US, Europe and Asia. The subsidiary in the US is the main unit called Systat Software Inc. The company has also created its presence in over 37 countries through a strong distribution network and direct offices.
Major Products Use in Science/Engineering SYSTAT Statistical Analysis TableCurve 2D Curve Fitting TableCurve 3D Surface Fitting PeakFit Peak Analysis AutoSignal DSP
The details of the the proprietary products of the company is attached in Annexure 3.
Consulting CSIL has created consulting skills in modelling and simulation software products leveraging the long MATLAB association. Modelware, its consulting division, has recently entered into an alliance with Lanner Group and Popkin Software with the business modelling and simulation market in mind.
Cranes Varsity The company entered training in 1998 and the activity is carried out under the name Cranes Varsity. This was primarily started to train users on the products distributed by the company. It started off as the Authorised Training Partner for MATLAB. Later the company established a partnership with Texas Instruments to train users on TI’s tools in India. This is done through TI DSP labs established in engineering colleges across India. Recently, the company has entered into a partnership with IBM to introduce its Rational SEED Program to universities in southern India.
Systat Software Inc The company has subsidiaries called Systat Software, Inc. USA (SSI), Systat Software GmbH, Cranes Software International Pte. Ltd. and Systat Software Asia Pacific Ltd. Systat Software Inc. develops, markets and supports scientific software of CSIL and includes major products of CSIL like SYSTAT, TableCurve 2D TableCurve 3D, PeakFit and AutoSignal. This is done by SSI along with its subsidiary Systat Software UK Limited. SSI is head quartered in California USA with offices in the United Kingdom and India. This is supported by a network of global channel partners and marketing associates.
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Management CSIL’s Board of has considerable experience in technology innovation, general management, consulting and in leading diverse businesses. Mr. Asif Khader and Mr. Mukarram Jan founded the company. Mr Khader leads the company as its Managing Director. He is a computer engineer with an additional degree in statistics. He has also co-founded SPSS South Asia and Orca Infotech Pvt. Ltd. The other people on the board include Mr. Rudra Pratap of the Indian Institute of Science and the President Mr. Richard Gall, who was earlier with Texas Instruments.
The details of the board of directors and key operating management team is attached in Annexure 6.
Human Resources The company has a total manpower of 257 people. Apart from the sales and marketing staff, it also includes product developers, the global R&D team, domain experts, statisticians, graphic designers, algorithm specialists, and software programmers.
Impressive Client Roster The company has an impressive client list across automotive, consumer electronics, semiconductors, power and communications sectors. Some of the international customers include GE, Texas Instruments, Robert Bosch, Intel, Philips, Motorola, Siemens, ABB, Daimler-Chrysler, Tektronix, and government agencies such as the U.S. armed forces. In the domestic market major customers are Wipro, Infosys, Reliance, L&T
Financial performance CSIL has demonstrated strong resilience across variable operating conditions to deliver sustained growth on all financial parameters. In the five-year period from fiscal year 1999 to fiscal year 2003, net sales have grown at a CAGR of 87% to Rs. 610.0 million from Rs. 50.4 million and PAT has moved from Rs. 6.8 million to Rs. 140.1 million, at a CAGR of 113%. In this period, the size of the Company has also risen and the net worth expanded by a CAGR of 101% from Rs. 20.2 million to Rs. 332.8 million while capital employed increased by 68% to Rs. 534.9 million.
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Recent Results 03/04 03/03 % Change 03/04 03/03 % Change Rs Mn (3) (3) yoy (12) (12) yoy Net Sales 517.09 257.87 100.52 1,136.92 610.13 86.34 Total Expenditure: 332.54 114.75 189.81 620.33 312.53 98.49 Operating Profits 184.55 143.13 28.94 516.59 297.61 73.58 Other Income - 4.78 (100.00) 3.75 5.40 (30.61) Interest 31.83 14.14 125.02 77.42 33.26 132.74 Depreciation 26.52 29.07 (8.76) 79.87 50.23 59.03 Profit before tax 126.21 104.70 20.54 363.05 219.52 65.38 Tax (25.90) 50.69 (151.09) 37.43 78.98 (52.61) Profit After tax 152.10 54.01 181.63 325.62 140.54 131.69 Prior Period items (0.24) (0.48) (48.42) (0.25) (0.48) (48.42) Net Profit 151.86 53.53 183.67 325.37 140.06 132.30 Equity 101.67 84.22 20.71 101.67 84.22 20.71 EPS Rs 17.71 6.41 176.29 38.31 16.32 134.74 OPM % 35.69 55.50 45.44 48.78
The company has doubled its sales in the fourth quarter at Rs 517mn. The operating margins however reduced to 35.7% from 55.5% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year on account of higher G&A expenses. The company made a net profit of Rs 151.9mn, a whopping 183% growth over the corresponding quarter in the previous year,
For the full year, the company posted sales of 1137mn, a yoy growth of 86%. The net profits were up by 132% at Rs 325.4mn, giving it an earning per share of Rs 38.3.
GDR issue The company has come with a GDR issue of $11.6mn representing 1.744mn shares of Rs 10 issued at $6.65each. This has caused the equity to increase from Rs 84.2mn to Rs 101.7mn. The funds from the issue will contribute to the funding requirements related to its planned business expansions that include: Exploiting emerging growth opportunities through focused acquisitions, joint ven- tures and strategic alliances in India and internationally. Acquisition of intellectual property rights (IPRs) and entering global marketing alliances for leading technical software products. Augmenting working capital requirements of the rapidly expanding global business.
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Attractive valuations At current market price of Rs 363, stock is currently available at an attractive valuation of 7.6xFY05E and 5.6xFY06E in comparison to such peer product companies like I-Flex and Subex Systems.
A company like I-Flex will continue to command premium valuations on account of a proven product pipeline, a strong brand and its MNC status. Once the potential of Cranes comes fully to the fore in the next two years, we see its P/E multiples expanding from current levels.
At FY06E, the potential stock price of the company works out to Rs 618. The present value of the stock at a discounted rate of 14% works out to be Rs 476. This gives the stock a 31% upside from current levels. We recommend a strong BUY on the company.
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Projected Income statement Period to FY03 FY04 FY05P FY06P (Rs in mn) (12) (12) (12) (12) Net Sales 610 1137 1649 2341 Operating expenses (313) (620) (928) (1,389) Operating profit 298 517 721 952 Other income 5 4 5 7.5 PBIDT 303 520 726 959 Interest (33) (77) (85) (105) Depreciation (50) (80) (95) (115) Profit before tax (PBT) 220 363 546 739.1 Tax (79) (37) (56) (76) Profit after tax (PAT) 141 325.6 489 663 Extraordinary / prior period items (0) (0) (0) (0) Adjusted profit after tax (APAT) 140 325.4 489 662 EPS (Rs) 16.6 38.3 48.1 65.2 Div per share 1.2 3.0 5.0 7.0
Projected Balance Sheet
Period to FY03 FY04P FY05P FY06P (Rs in mn) (12) (12) (12) (12) Sources Equity 84.2 101.7 101.7 101.7 Preference 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Share Capital 104 102 102 102 Reserves 291 586 1,025 1,619 Net Worth 396 688 1,127 1,720 Loan Funds 213 233 273 313 Def Tax (asset) 0 0 0 0 Total 609 921 1,400 2,033 Uses Gross Block 491 591 759 906 Accd Depreciation (99) (119) (153) (183) Net Block 392 472 606 723 Capital WIP 5 5 6 8 Total Fixed Assets 397 477 612 731 Investments 0 0 180 480 Total Current Assets 415 779 1,076 1,362 Inventories 73 109 158 224 Debtors 277 374 542 770 Cash & Bank 9 100 117 136 Other current assets 56 196 258 232 Total Current Liabilities (118) (219) (318) (411) Creditors (68) (128) (185) (263) Other current Liabilities (49) (92) (133) (148) Net Working Capital 298 559 758 951 Miscellaneous expenditure 5.7 5.7 8 10 Def Tax (liability) (91) (121) (158) (138) Total 609 921 1,400 2,033
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Key Ratios
FY03 FY04 FY05P FY06P (12) (12) (12) (12) EPS (Rs) 16.6 38.3 48.1 65.2 DPS (Rs) 1.2 3.0 5.0 7.0 BV per share 47.0 69.6 112.8 171.2 P/E 21.8 9.5 7.6 5.6 P/BV 7.7 5.2 3.2 2.1 EV/Sales 5.3 3.4 2.3 1.7 EV/ EBIT 10.8 7.4 5.3 4.0 OPM (%) 48.8 45.4 43.7 40.7 PAT % 23.0 28.6 29.7 28.3 ROCE 49.8 55.3 51.1 46.7 RONW 35.4 46.0 42.6 38.1 Debt / Total equity 0.54 0.33 0.24 0.18
Projected Cash Flow Statement Year to (Rs mn) FY03 FY04P FY05P FY06P Net profit before tax and extraordinary items 220 363 546 739 Depreciation 50 80 95 115 Interest expense 33 77 85 105 Operating profit before working capital changes 303 520 726 959 Add: changes in working capital (Inc)/Dec in (Inc)/dec in sundry debtors (90) (97) (168) (228) (Inc)/dec in inventories (51) (36) (49) (66) (inc)/dec in other current assets (25) (140) (62) 26 Inc/(dec) in sundry creditors 10 59 57 78 Inc/(dec) in other current liabilities 37 42 41 15 Net change in working capital (119) (171) (181) (175) Cash from operating activities 184 349 545 784 Less: Income tax (79) (37) (56) (76) Inc/(Dec) in Def Tax liability 53 30 37 (20) Inc/(Dec) in Def Tax asset 0 0 0 0 Cash flow before extraordinary item 158 342 525 688 Extraordinary inc/(exp) (0) (0) (0) (0) Net cash from operating activities 158 341 525 687 Cash flows from investing activities (Inc)/Dec in fixed assets (256) (160) (230) (234) (Inc)/Dec in Investments 0 0 (180) (300) Net cash from investing activities (256) (160) (410) (534) Cash flows from financing activitiesash flows from financing activities Inc/(Dec) in debt 22 20 40 40 Inc/(Dec) in equity/premium 0 (3) 0 0 Direct add/(red) to reserves (2) 2 0 4 Interest expense (33) (77) (85) (105) Dividends (13) (33) (53) (74) Net cash used in financing activities (26) (91) (98) (134) Net increase in cash and cash equivalents (124) 91 17 18 Cash at start of the year 133 9 100 117 Cash at end of the year 9 100 117 136
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Annexures
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Annexure1: Evolution of CSIL
1991 Cranes Software International Limited (CSIL) founded by two young, first generation entrepreneurs 1992 Initial focus on engineering software 1993 Indian subcontinent distribution rights for MATLAB™ 1995 Strategic alliance with dSPACE adds DSP development tools to portfolio 1998 Alliance with Mentor Graphics’ Nucleus Real Time Operating Systems (RTOS) for embedded solutions Cranes Varsity established for training in DSP, RTOS, embedded systems and mathematical modeling and simulation (MMS) 1999 Cranes Varsity initiates corporate training to several industry leaders Cranes Varsity acquires training authorization for Texas Instruments’ DSP University programme; mathematical modeling and simulation using MATLAB; and real time operating systems using Nucleus 2000 Launch of Cranes’ consulting division: initial engagements with GE, TI, the MathWorks and SPSS Inc. Acquisition of AISN Software and its market leading software products TableCurve 2D,TableCurve 3D and PeakFit 2001 Domestic mandates for marketing globally established products in telecom and networking,3G and tool chains: Texas Instruments, the MathWorks, Radioscape, AdventNet and Metaware Cranes Varsity becomes Global Connection Partner for the MathWorks, Inc. Acquisition of SYSTAT from SPSS Inc. Fully-owned U.S. subsidiary incorporated in Richmond, California 2002 R&D center established in Bangalore to develop product upgrades, and conduct research in new technologies Fully-owned U.K. subsidiary incorporated in London Cranes Sci MEMS Lab established in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science (IISc),Bangalore Strategic tie-up with the Lanner Group for solutions and products sales ISO 9001-2000 certification acquired Global marketing and distribution alliance with AISN for AutoSignal product
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