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Introduction 2020 COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATISTICAL SECTION CONTENTS 1 Introduction Introduction 2 Head Coaching Changes 3 Best of Three-Season ATS Roles So, as we head into the 2020 College Football season, people write stories Best, Worst 3-Season about who might win the national championship. There are 130 teams at the 4 D-1 FBS level, but everybody knows that the eventual national champion will ATS Follow-Up be either Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma or Au- 6 Interception Analyses burn, right? Okay, maybe Notre Dame, Penn State and Oregon should be in the mix. Michigan? Ha. Are they still in the league? It’s more than just a little 7 ATS Margin Increases ridiculous that people get so worked up about a sport in which fewer than 8 Turnover Margin Change and 10% of the teams involved have a realistic chance to compete for the na- tional championship. But this is why we like to wager on the games instead of ATS Analyses worrying about who’ll win some dopey game in January after they’ve played 9 Fumble Recovery Leader Analysis only one playoff game off a 35-day layoff sometime around New Year’s Day. College football handicapping has its quirks. In any given year, the gap be- 2017-19 CF tween the #1 scoring offense and the #20 scoring offense will be close to two Offensive Medianss touchdowns. Don’t take my word for it. Check it out in the table below! Rushing Attempts 37.9 In the NFL, the gap between #1 and #20 in scoring is typically a little smaller: between 9 and 12 points. But in the pros, there are only 12 more teams af- Rushing Yards 166 ter the #20 scoring Rushing Yards/carry 4.4 Year #1 Scoring Off PPG #20 Scoring Off PPG Diff offense. In College Pass completions 2019 LSU 48.4 Ohio 34.3 14.1 Football, there are 18.8 2018 Oklahoma 48.4 Boise St. 35.4 13.0 110 more teams be- Pass Attempts 31.7 hind the #20 scor- 2017 UCF 48.2 Georgia 35.4 12.8 ing offense! With Pass Yds/Att (YPA) 7.4 2016 Western KY 45.5 Navy 37.9 7.6 a wider talent gap, Passing Yards 233 2015 Baylor 48.1 Arizona 37.4 10.7 there are class fac- 2014 Baylor 48.2 Toledo 36.6 11.6 tors involved in Pass comp. % (season) 59.6% 2013 Baylor 52.4 UCLA 36.9 15.5 many match-ups. Total Yards 399 2012 La. Tech 51.5 Texas Tech 37.5 14.0 When a team like Western Kentucky, First Downs 20.9 2011 Houston 49.3 Alabama 34.8 14.5 from Conference Offensive plays 2010 Oregon 49.0 Troy 34.1 14.9 71.7 USA, leads the na- tion in scoring (2016), it doesn’t mean that it can step up and score its usu- TD Passes (season) 20 al amount of points when it plays against an opponent from a higher-class Interceptions (season) 10 conference. In fact, when Western Kentucky led the nation in scoring, they scored more than two touchdowns less than their average when losing to the running joke of the SEC, Vanderbilt (30 points), and five touchdowns less BUY than their average against Alabama (10 points), who allowed only 13.0 ppg ON that season and played in the National Championship Game. In 2011, when Houston ranked #1 in scoring, guess who won the National Championship? It was the team with the #20 scoring rank, which averaged nearly 15 points A per game fewer than Houston -- Alabama! The Tide beat LSU 21-0 in the title M game that season, in which their defense allowed a mere 8.3 ppg (to LSU’s A second-best 11.3 ppg allowed). Z O As you move along through various points of the season, it’s always im- N portant to be mindful and aware of the caliber of opponent that a team’s . statistics have been compiled against. Early in 2019, Miami-OH gave up 601 yards and 76 points to Ohio State. Before that, they’d lost and failed to cover C the spread losing by 24 and 22 points at Iowa and Cincinnati. But guess who O won the MAC Championship? Miami-OH! That’s college football for you! A M team can lose a game by 71 points and still win a championship in the same season! – Bobby Smith Sports betting bestseller at amazon.com! 1 2020 BOBBYSMITH.COM | COLLEGE COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2020 College Football Head Coaching Changes New Season Team Yr Last Replaced Reason Yr Last Year ATS Head Coach Year 2020 Appalachian St. Shawn Clark 1 2019 Eliah Drinkwitz Left $ 1 10 4 0 2020 Arkansas Sam Pittman 1 2019 Chad Morris Fired 2 5 7 0 2020 Baylor Dave Aranda 1 2019 Matt Rhule Left $ 3 9 5 0 2020 Boston College Jeff Hafley 1 2019 Steve Addazio Fired 7 7 5 0 2020 Colorado Karl Dorell 1 2019 Mel Tucker Left $ 1 5 7 0 2020 Colorado St. Steve Addazio 1 2019 Mike Bobo Fired 5 6 5 0 2020 Florida Atl Willie Taggart 1 2019 Lane Kiffin Left $ 3 10 4 0 2020 Florida St. Mike Norvell 1 2019 Willie Taggart Fired 2 5 8 0 2020 Fresno St. Kalen DeBoer 1 2019 Jeff Tedford Retired 3 3 8 1 2020 Hawaii Todd Graham 1 2019 Nick Rolovich Left $ 4 7 7 0 2020 Memphis Ryan Silverfield 1 2019 Mike Norvell Left $ 4 6 6 1 2020 Michigan St. Mel Tucker 1 2019 Mark Dantonio Retired 13 4 9 0 2020 Mississippi Lane Kiffin 1 2019 Matt Luke Fired 3 8 3 1 2020 Mississippi St. Mike Leach 1 2019 Joe Moorhead Fired 2 4 8 0 2020 Missouri Eliah Drinkwitz 1 2019 Barry Odom Fired 4 4 8 0 2020 New Mexico Danny Gonzalez 1 2019 Bob Davie Fired 8 3 8 1 2020 Old Dominion Ricky Rahne 1 2019 Bobby Wilder Fired 11 4 8 0 2020 Rutgers Greg Schiano 1 2019 Chris Ash Fired 4 4 8 0 2020 San Diego St. Brady Hoke 1 2019 Rocky Long Retired 9 8 5 0 2020 South Florida Jeff Scott 1 2019 Charlie Strong Fired 3 5 7 0 2020 Tex San Antonio Jeff Traylor 1 2019 Frank Wilson Fired 4 6 5 0 2020 UNLV Marcus Arroyo 1 2019 Tony Sanchez Fired 5 6 6 0 2020 Washington Jimmy Lake 1 2019 Chris Petersen Retired 6 8 5 0 2020 Washington St. Nick Rolovich 1 2019 Mike Leach Left $ 12 4 8 0 There will be 24 new head coaches at the FBS level this Colorado after only one season! And Tucker didn’t even season. The most common reason for a new head coach’s accomplish anything at Colorado! entry is that the prior guy got fired. That is the case in 13 Yes, we all missed our calling. We all should have been of the 24 instances. Four of the new head coaches re- football coaches. They get paid a lot of money for ac- place recent retirees. complishing trivial things, or not! Here are all your Year Seven of them replace head coaches who left for more One guys heading into 2020, listed along with whom they money at another school. Two of the flat-leavers – Eliah replace, how long the other guy had been there and his Drinkwitz and Mel Tucker – left Appalachian State and final-season ATS record. – Bobby Smith COLLEGE | 2020 BOBBYSMITHSPORTS.COM 2 COLLEGE FOOTBALL The Best of Three-Season ATS Category Roles The following information is presented as a public service, for those interest- ed in knowing who the BEST performers in the four College Football Site and BEST OF 2016-18 Role pointspread categories have been over the last three seasons. But any- (with 2019 follow-up) one who chooses to wager the way of these particular BEST OF 2017-19 HOME DOG, ATS W L T AvLin ATS% 2019 ATS ATS % three-season trends should Auburn 4 0 0 4.5 100.0% 1 1 0 50.0% not blame me if they fail to HOME DOG, ATS W L T AvLin ATS% Fresno St. 6 0 0 10.7 100.0% 0 0 1 0.0% show a profit in the process, Tulane 6 0 0 8.8 100.0% UAB 4 0 0 5.0 100.0% - - - - as I have often warned Florida Int 5 1 1 8.9 83.3% Texas 7 1 0 5.7 87.5% 1 1 0 50.0% against this practice. Texas 5 1 0 7.3 83.3% Duke 5 1 0 7.5 83.3% 1 1 0 50.0% Arizona St. 7 2 0 7.7 77.8% Buffalo 6 2 0 9.3 75.0% 2 0 0 100.0% From the Zone Blitz of 2019, Boston College 7 2 0 8.1 77.8% Tulane 6 2 1 9.0 75.0% 1 0 0 100.0% there were four groups of Kansas St. 7 2 0 9.3 77.8% Arizona St. 8 3 0 6.8 72.7% 2 0 0 100.0% “Three-Season Best ATS.” Charlotte 9 3 0 9.0 75.0% Iowa St. 7 3 1 9.1 70.0% 1 0 0 100.0% They were Home Under- Kentucky 5 2 0 7.3 71.4% California 9 4 0 7.9 69.2% 1 1 0 50.0% dogs, Home Favorites, Nevada 5 2 0 9.0 71.4% TOTAL 62 16 2 -- 79.5% 10 4 1 71.4% Road Underdogs and Road Temple 5 2 0 8.9 71.4% Favorites (see tables at Purdue 7 3 0 7.8 70.0% left).
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