'Pragmatic Adhocism'?

DGAPanalyse Prof. Dr. Eberhard Sandschneider (Hrsg.) Otto Wolff-Direktor des Forschungsinstituts der DGAP e. V. May 2014 N° 7 From Front-runner’s ‘EUphoria’ to Backmarker’s ‘Pragmatic Adhocism’? Hungary’s Ten Years within the European Union in a Visegrad Comparison by Daniel Hegedűs This paper is published as part of the research project "Central European Perspectives – Integra- tion Achievements and Challenges of the V4 States after Ten Years in the EU", supported by the strategic grant of the International Visegrad Fund. Project Partners: Eötvös Loránd Tudományegyetem, Társadalomtudományi Kar (ELTE TÁTK) / Eötvös Loránd University Budapest, Faculty of Social Sciences, Budapest|Hungary Asociace pro Mezinárodní Otázky (AMO) / Association of International Affairs, Prague|Czech Republic Central European Policy Institute (CEPI), Bratislava|Slovakia Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego (FKP) / Casimir Pulaski Foundation, Warsaw|Poland The German Council on Foreign Relations does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author. DGAPanalyse 7 | May 2014 Summary From Front-runner’s ‘EUphoria’ to Backmarker’s ‘Pragmatic Adhocism’? Hungary’s Ten Years within the European Union in a Visegrad Comparison by Daniel Hegedűs The paper aims to give a brief but comprehensive summary of the internal and external dimensions of Hungary’s EU membership and integration policy. It will outline and analyze the development paths and future perspectives in the fields of European and foreign policy, home affairs, and economics. Whether Hungary again becomes a front- runner in the European development process or remains a partially isolated backmarker hinges mainly on the direction taken in the broader European development. Neverthel- ess the country is currently establishing an alternative political model within European integration. It is still not clear whether this development conforms with basic European standards and represents a renaissance of the “Europe of Nations” concept or whether it steps over these common rules and goes in the direction of a political and economic “third way” model. If one focuses on Hungarian foreign policy, the option of a “Europe of Nations” is more likely; if one focuses on internal developments, then the “third way” model seems more likely. However, the country’s European policy has since 2010 definitely turned in a very pragmatic direction compared to the “EUphoric” phase of former years. Hungary accepts the fact of a “multi-speed integration” and takes different pragmatic positions on very different policy issues, taking into consideration first and foremost an ad hoc interpretation of national interest rather than a comprehensive integration strategy. 1 DGAPanalyse 7 | May 2014 Inhalt 1. Retrospective Overview ..............................................................4 1.1. Historical assessment of a lost decade ...................................................4 1.2 Muddling through an almost permanent crisis...............................................6 1.3. Political controversies: the permanently misunderstood country ................................8 2.0. Perspectives ......................................................................10 2.1. Regional and European dynamics: Hungary in the EU and in the V4 ...........................10 2.2. Economic and monetary union and the questions of further fiscal and monetary integration ........14 2.3. Energy and climate ..................................................................16 2.4. Hungarian priorities and “uploading” at the European Political Agenda .........................20 2.5. Economic and foreign policy partnership networks .........................................23 Conclusions ...........................................................................24 Notes ..................................................................................27 2 DGAPanalyse 7 | May 2014 From Front-runner’s ‘EUphoria’ to Backmarker’s ‘Pragmatic Adhocism’? Hungary’s Ten Years within the European Union in a Visegrad Comparison by Daniel Hegedűs On the one hand, Hungary is a country with widely European and foreign policy, home affairs, and recognized economic reforms during the late state economics. The author is well aware, however, that socialist era, the country that opened the Iron the question of the last decade’s balance can hardly Curtain, was the first post-socialist state to join the be answered in the current context. The reason Council of Europe, and effectively paved the way is that Hungary now seems to be at an important for liberal economic and political reforms in East turning point, having undergone significant chan- Central Europe during the 1990s, thus securing its ges over the last few years. This paper attempts to position in the first enlargement rounds of NATO answer the question of whether the country is now and the EU, in 1999 and 2004 respectively. On once again fulfilling a pioneering role – developing the other hand, Hungary is a country with conti- a political counter-model based on the re-establish- nuously decreasing competitiveness, with increasing ment of the national elite’s political and economic external debt and economic imbalances during the sovereignty, and thus giving new impetus for the first decade of the new millennium. According “Europe of Nations” concept – or if it is slowly to its critics, since 2010 it has become an isolated, becoming an isolated, thwarted EU member state. enfant terrible member state of the EU; the quality of the rule of law has been questionable, as have The first, retrospective, part of the paper gives Hungary’s democratic standards. In 2012–13 the an overview of the main economic and political country was threatened with suspension of mem- dynamics of last ten years, revealing the loss of bership rights under Article 7 TEU.1 Contrary to competitiveness and the roots and consequences that, internal and external supporters interpret the of the ineffective governance between 2002 and reforms of the last years as the re-establishment 2010 and highlighting the contradictions of the of democratically legitimized national elites’ power constitutional and political development after 2010 and political space vis-à-vis alienated European (1.1). It also focuses on Hungary’s performance technocracy. In their eyes, the country can be a during the economic crisis after 2008 (1.2), and on possible pioneer in finding new answers to the cur- the most important political controversies that have rent crises in European integration and in forging occurred between the European and national levels new paths for the future. during recent years (1.3). The second part analyzes the dynamics and perspectives of Hungary’s Euro- This paper aims to give a brief but comprehensive pean and foreign policy (2.1), with special emphasis summary of the internal and external dimensions on relations with the European Monetary Union of Hungary’s EU membership. It will outline and (EMU), fiscal integration, and the “deepening” of analyze the development paths in the fields of the European Union (2.2). It also puts the Hun- 3 DGAPanalyse 7 | May 2014 garian position on European energy and climate fact that the Hungarian economy had grown on a policy under the microscope (2.3), as well as its balanced and sustainable basis since the economic “uploadings” to the European political agenda (2.4), reform program of 1995, it was not able to provide and finally the country’s economic and trade part- the necessary basis for such an increase in public nership, and foreign policy networks (2.5). spending, which led to a rise in national debt. Since 2002, the government gross debt in GDP percen- tage has grown by approximately 3 percent annu- 1. Retrospective Overview ally, from a level of 55.9 percent in 2002 to 58.6 percent in 2003, 65.9 percent in 2006, 73 percent in 2008 and finally 82.2 percent in 2010.4 In the 1.1. Historical assessment of a lost decade years 2002–08, the budget deficit varied between -5 percent and -9 percent annually. The true situation Bearing in mind that 2004 did not constitute a fun- of the Hungarian economy and public finances damental turning point in Hungary’s economic and was first made clear to the general public mainly political development, it is first necessary to take through a leaked speech by Prime Minister Ferenc a deeper look at the historical situation. The most Gyurcsány after the second election victory of crucial year in contemporary Hungarian political the socialist-liberal coalition in 2006.5 As a result history was undoubtedly 2002, which marked the of the extensive social and political opposition to starting point for two political and economic pro- Gyurcsány, who failed to resign after his scandalous cesses that had a fundamental impact over the next confession, and because the Fidesz-led opposition eight years, and indeed to this very day. Both the declared the government to be illegitimate and con- rather low-intensity but continuous political and sequently refused any dialogue with it, the country governance crisis and the increasing level of state sank into a crisis of governance. Although there debt can be traced back to the change of govern- were clear initiatives to create structural reforms ment in 2002. This was the most emblematic star- and restore the balance of public spending, they ting point of a development process that has led to remained unsuccessful. The opposition effectively the irreconcilable polarization

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