opposition groups, andsilencingorarresting jour- banning publicdemonstrations, crackingdownon chance tostrengthentheir authoritarianpowerby tional rights.This,inturn,has givenauthoritiesthe different extent,directlyreduced civilandconstitu- ing curfewsandstateofemergency lawsthat,toa social spaces,withsomegovernmentsevenadopt- sion ofpublicactivitiesandradicalrestrictionson social distancingpolicieshaspromptedasuspen- To beginwith,theneedtoenforcequarantineand already startedtotakeshape. plications ofthevirus,asetrelevanttrendshas ficult topredictboththedurationandlong-termim- and politicaldecision-making.Whileitremainsdif- and provokingdeepeffectsonbothgovernance sphere, ratherencompassingsocietyasawhole national healthcarestructuresortheeconomic impact ofthepandemichashardlybeenlimitedto measures and restart economic production. Yet, the infections afterthedecisiontoeaselockdown are experiencing anew increase in thenumber of as, inparticular,,,LebanonandTurkey mostly onthewane,althoughsomecountriessuch in EuropeandthebroaderMediterraneanregionis the novel coronavirus on public healthcare systems available dataatthetimeofwriting,pressure ic activitiesonaglobalscale.Accordingtothe our everyday lives and severely hampering econom- ed allcountriesintheworld,drasticallychanging litical eventsofrecenttimes.Ithasbasicallyaffect- considered amongthemostconsequentialgeopo- The COVID-19pandemiccan,inallrespects,be Studies (ISPI), Milan Italian InstituteforInternationalPolitical Executive Vice-President andDirector Magri Paolo and Authoritarianism Populism Times: Post-pandemic in Region Euro-Mediterranean the Holding back the Old Demons in 25 Years Times, in Corona after the Process Barcelona Rethinking Crasher: Relations UnexpectedEuro-Mediterranean An Dossier: Party tended as a particular type of political regime, was fore thespreadofCOVID-19. Authoritarianism,in- cases, even politically influential or dominant, be - tendencies werealreadyin place and,inquiteafew countries, politicalnationalism andauthoritarian When lookingatbothEuropean andMediterranean Mediterranean Broader the and in Europe and Authoritarianism Covid-19 Multiplier? A Threat festations. detrimental consequencesforthesepoliticalmani- tarianism andpopulismor,conversely, couldhave demic mayemergeasaboostingfactorforauthori- in ordertounderstandwhethertheongoingpan- its implicationsonauthoritarianandpopulisttrends, broader Mediterraneanbylooking,specifically, at on socio-political dynamics in Europe and the This articleseekstoexploretheimpactofCOVID-19 mestic repression. further towardsauthoritarianismandsystematicdo- others, suchasAlgeriaandEgypt,perhapsmoving recent democraticachievementsfrustrated,and such asTunisia andMoroccopossiblyseeingtheir tress andsocialuncertainties,withsomecountries, in abroaderframeworkofmountingeconomicdis- ible publicopinion.Thesedynamicsriskworsening, consensus amongadisorientedandmoresuggest- and targetvulnerablecommunitiesinordertogain lating thepandemictobelittlepoliticalopponents have becomemorevocalintheirrhetoric,manipu- in somestates,populistandnationalistmovements rules waspartiallysuspendedorevendownplayed of civilrights,personalfreedomanddemocratic guarding publicsecurity. Secondly, astheprimacy nalists and social activists under the guise of safe-

IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2020 119 An Unexpected Party Crasher: Rethinking Euro-Mediterranean Relations in Corona TimesDossier IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2020 120 An Unexpected Party Crasher: Rethinking Euro-Mediterranean Relations in Corona TimesDossier themselves time. impose harshersocialcontrol measuresandbuy fered stateauthoritiesanunexpectedopportunityto the very reasons behind the demonstrations and of- gence during2019,thevirushasovershadowed ruption andpoorgovernancemadeapainfulreemer- non, andEgypt,wherepopularprotestsagainstcor- meddling. InsomecountriessuchasAlgeria,Leba- sitions, statecollapse,civilconflictandinternational ade ofuprisings,failedorincompletepoliticaltran- region alreadygrapplingwiththeeffectsofadec- To besure,thepandemicspreadquicklythrougha and buy themselves time control social harsher measures to impose unexpected opportunity stateoffered authorities an behind the demonstrations and overshadowed reasons the very , and Egypt, the virus has some countriesIn Algeria, such as regimes, in his1975classicTotalitarian andauthoritarian first conceptualizedbypoliticalscientistJuanLinz 2 1 mation anddisablingvoice.” their representatives,bymeansofsecrecy, disinfor- ple overwhomapoliticalactorexertscontrol,or terns ofactionthatsabotageaccountabilitytopeo- focus onauthoritarianpractices,definedas“pat- may be useful toadopt Marlies Glasius’ analytical how thesehavebeenimpactedbyCOVID-19,it thoritarianism inthebroaderMediterraneanand appraise theheterogeneousmanifestationsofau- as wellfreedomofassociation.Still,tobetter the systematicdisregardofaccesstoinformation rule – a weak or lacking freedom of expression and exemplified byadominantorprivilegedone-party sence offreeandfairpoliticalcompetition–often demic attention,becomingassociatedwiththeab- G L inz l a , Juan. Totalitarian, Juan. and authoritarian regimes sius , Marlies. “What authoritarianism is … and is not: a practice perspective,” International Affairs 1 andhassincereceivedextensiveaca- 2

. Boulder – CO, Lynne Rienner, 2000 (first publ. 1975). publ. (first 2000 Rienner, Lynne –CO, . Boulder freedom ofexpressionandaccusing anypoliticalop thorities imposinganewand harshercrackdownon human rightscrisisofitshistory,” withEgyptianau- terms, thishasplungedEgyptdeeperinto“theworst de factoultimateauthorityinthecountry. In practical tional amendmentsthathavemadethemilitary on power.Thismoveaddstoaseriesofconstitu- since 2017,furtherstrengtheningthemilitary›sgrip extend emergencypowersthathavebeeninforce Fattah el-SisihasexploitedtheCOVID-19crisisto In Egypt,themilitaryregimeledbyPresidentAbdel fragile politicalarrangement. tentially devastating consequences for the country’s peaceful maysoonturnintoviolentrevolts,withpo- protests thathavesofarremainedsubstantially the publicisprovingmoreuselesseveryday, andthe hide therealdimensionoffinancialcrisisfrom most ofthepopulation,government’spracticeto and theprice of basicgoodsgrows unbearable for . Asthedomesticeconomicsituationworsens persed protestersandtorchedthelatter’stentsin spaces, withsecurityservicesthatrepeatedlydis- strictions on movement and shutdowns of public cilitate theissuingofofficialdecreesgoverningre- – imposedastateofemergencyinmid-Marchtofa- but practicallydominatedbyHezbollahanditsallies In Lebanon,thegovernmentledbyHassanDiab– goat todeteranewwaveofdissent. wards amoreauthoritariandrift,astacticalscape- pushing governing elites backed by the army to- ation onlyrisksdeepeningsocialinequalitiesand disregarded, whilethecountry’sdireeconomicsitu- speech andhumanrightsstandardsremainwidely and more transparent governance, freedom of tion throughaseasonofsocio-economicreforms Tebboune’s pledgetoregainthetrustofpopula- guarding national security. Despite new President of civilandpoliticalactivistsonthepretextsafe- against opposition movements and arrest hundreds delaziz Djeradtointensifyitsrepressioncampaign over ayear,helpingthenewgovernmentofAb- their peacefulFridaymarches for thefirst time in In Algeria, the pandemicforcedprotesters to calloff The Increasing Recourse to Authoritarian Practices , 94: 3, 515-33, 2018. 515-33, 3, , 94: - ing a new wave of mass detention. security forcesandstateapparatuses,thusprompt- hood ofattemptingtospreadthevirusamong ments (waqf)openlyaccusedtheMuslimBrother- cially estimated,whileEgypt’sMinisterofEndow- of reportinghighernumbersinfectionsthanoffi- for even spareforeignreporters,withjournalistsworking cording totheDemocracyIndexofEconomist countries thatareclassifiedas“democracies” ac- have alsosurfacedinIsraelandmanyEuropean These populistandnationalisticrhetorics,however, 3 health situation. ponents ofspreadingmisinformationonthecountry’s 7 6 5 4 60, 2020. 60, of thecountry’seconomicactivities. President Erdogan’searlydecisiontoreopenmost government’s slow response to the emergency and tors andpoliticalactivistswhocriticizedboththe peated harassmentandpublicintimidationofdoc- the contagion,eventurningablindeyetore- medical bulletinsandreportsonthemagnitudeof controlled outletshaverepeatedlyunderplayed ease. Inasimilarvein,Turkish authoritiesandstate- advance the Egyptians’ alleged immunity to the dis- shut downeconomicactivities,goingasfarto ness ofthepandemic,andjokedaboutneedto by theWorld HealthOrganizationontheserious- official circles initially belittled the indications and Turkey arecasesinpoint.Egyptianstate-media tic tendenciesbuiltuponidentitypolitics.Egyptand has alsogonehandinwithgrowingnationalis- or evenhybridpoliticalsystems.Butthisdynamic Mediterranean characterizedbyautocraticregimes current tactic in all those countries in the broader on government-alignedmediahasemergedasare- The practiceofmisinformationconcerningthevirus Misinformation and Identity Politics narrative overfightingthespreadofvirusitself. pandemic, the regime has prioritized controlling the ernment’s evidentshortcomingsincontainingthe , 2020. 2, 2020. A D 2020. January Unit, Intelligence Economist protest,” popular and setbacks 2019. AYear democratic of Index “Democracy D W rdo unne unne oertz The GuardianandNewYork Timesaccused v W. C. op. cit. op. W. C. ini , W. Charles. “Authoritarianism and the Middle East in the Time of COVID-19,” Arab COVID-19,” Center of Washington Time DC the in East Middle the and “Authoritarianism , W. Charles. GIGA Focus Middle East Number Number East Middle Focus GIGA Prospects,” Vulnerabilities, Reactions, Africa: North and East Middle the in “COVID-19 , Eckart. , Lucia. “Resilient Authoritarianism and Global Pandemics: Challenges in Egypt at the Time of COVID-19,” Pomeps Studies COVID-19,” of 39:58- Time the at Egypt in Challenges Pandemics: Global and Authoritarianism “Resilient Lucia. 3 Alarmingly, thesemeasuresdidnot 4 Given the gov- 5

of socialdistancingmeasures. tor citizens’ movementsandguaranteetherespect made extensiveuseofsurveillancedronestomoni- At thesametime,lawenforcementagencieshave movements inordertomodelthespreadofvirus. ing applicationstogeolocateandcontrolpopulation so farnotimposed–theuseofso-calledbacktrack ly andotherEuropeancountrieshavepromoted–but emergency orders to contain the contagion, while Ita- surveillance without parliamentary approval, invoking countries. Israel,forinstance,hasexpandeddigital lance bothinEuropeandsouthernMediterranean there has been a worrying increase in cyber-surveil- groups andprivatecorporationsalike.Inparticular, thoritarian practicesbygoverningauthorities,political has alsoinducedsubtler–yethighlyinvasiveau- Beside identitypolitics,theCOVID-19pandemic Law of Rule the to Threat the and State Surveillance the of Rise The demic haspassedmaynotbesoeasy. However,it abandoning monitoring technologies after the pan- The problemwithincreasedstatemonitoringisthat eroded the rule of law powers which have temporarily the adoptionjustify of extraordinary by used been has governments to mantraThe of national emergency Intelligence Unit. of terrorism” inspiteofitslegitimatepoliticalrole. yahu repeatedlyandpubliclyslurred as “supporters ance withtheIsraeliArabsJointList,whichNetan- convinced thelattertodismissagovernmentalalli- government withareticentBennyGantzafterhaving Netanyahu, forinstance,managedtoformacoalition 6 IsraeliPrimeMinisterBenjamin , 2 April, 2020. 2020. , 2April, 7

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IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2020 121 An Unexpected Party Crasher: Rethinking Euro-Mediterranean Relations in Corona TimesDossier IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2020 122 An Unexpected Party Crasher: Rethinking Euro-Mediterranean Relations in Corona TimesDossier of Europe’spoliticaldiscourse. pounded andquestionednumerousperceivednorms cal turmoil,renewedauthoritarianism and populism of the2008globalfinancialcrisis,awavepoliti- the pastdecade’sexperiencewhen,inaftermath groups. Thisperceptionwasaclearexpressionof ist stancesandallowthespreadofmoreextremist Europeans andEurosceptics,strengthennational- rus couldprofoundlyalterthebalancebetweenpro- President EmmanuelMacronhadwarnedthatthevi- list movements.Weeks intothecrisis,French Europe seemedlikeablessingforEuropeanpopu- At first, the spread of thecoronavirus pandemic in Europe across Populism on Impact COVID-19 The litical freedoms. safeguard democratic rules as well as civil and po- tion, whileraisingawarenessontheutmostneedto over theimportanceofmultilateralismandintegra- among countries,givingnewimpetustothedebate wave ofsolidarityandhumanitarianassistance Nevertheless, thepandemichasalsosparkeda es hostiletotheprotectionofhumanrights. human security that is prone to manipulation by forc- dynamics, withthevirusalsorepresentingathreatto impact ofthepandemicongovernanceandpolitical these developmentsdemonstratethemultifaceted rule bydecreeandunderminetheoflaw. Overall, has setadangerousprecedentforthegovernmentto ure, buthumanrightsgroupshavewarnedthatthis cently, theParliament voted and revoked the meas- rule bydecreeuntiltheCOVID-19crisisisover.Re- ment topassemergencylegislationenablinghim used histwo-thirdsmajorityintheHungarianParlia- gary, whereHungarianPrimeMinisterViktorOrban the rule of law. One of the clearest examples is Hun- extraordinary powerswhich have temporarily eroded been usedbygovernmentstojustifytheadoptionof out. Inparallel,themantraofnationalemergencyhas state, althoughsuchariskcertainlycannotberuled seems prematuretodeclaretheriseofasurveillance 10 10 9 8 Unit, June 2020. C Z N er ooper ugent ka , Pawel. “Ill will: Populism and the coronavirus,” European Council on Foreign Relations, 5 March, 2020. 5March, Relations, Foreign on Council European coronavirus,” the and Populism will: “Ill , Pawel. , Luke; , Luke; , 24 February, 2020. , 24 Time February, Outbreak,” Coronavirus from Gain to Seeks Far-Right “Italy’s , Ciara. A itchison LSE Conflict and Civil Society Research Research Society Civil and Conflict LSE Democracy,” and Authoritarianism Covid-19, Ahead: Dangers “The , Guy. 8

ty’s restrictivepoliticalagenda. seeking COVID-19asameanstoadvancehispar- late-February fornational“armour-plated” borders, the far-rightLeaguepartyMatteoSalvinicalledin to facetheepidemicoutsideofAsia,leader regarding thethreatposed by foreignersorminority traditionally attemptedtoinstillfearamongcitizens cal battleovermigration,populistmovementshave crisis. WithinthebroadframeworkofEU’spoliti- critical drivers severely undermined by the COVID-19 Identity politicshasbeenoneofthefirstpopulist populist supportandexposedtheirshortcomings. has underminedseveralofthedriversthatfuelled ism andEuroscepticism,thecoronavirusepidemic prosper. Insteadoffuellingasurgeinbothnational- and reducedthepolarizationthatallowspopulismto magnitude of this shared crisis have required unity blamed ontheelite.Moreover,seriousnessand populist surgeinEurope,thecoronaviruscannotbe global financialcrisisof2008,whichacceleratedthe ine peopleagainstcorruptelites.Converselytothe sents society within the antagonistic frame of genu- the oppositedirection.Populism traditionallyrepre- versed expectations, moving things,albeitslightly, in Nonetheless, itseemsthatthepandemichasre- Unexpected Trends borderlessness.” National criticized the European Union’s “religion of borders.” Similarly, MarineLePen’sRassemblement many asadirectoutcomeof“thedogmaopen Parliament, labelledthespreadofvirusinGer- leader ofAlternativefürDeutschlandattheGerman inadequate response to the crisis. Alice Weidel, the strict bordercontrols,blaminggovernmentsforthe movements inEuropedemandedtheintroduction of spreading ofthecrisisworldwide,far-rightpolitical viduals wasalreadyreal.Withtheworseningand misinformation andblamingspecificgroupsorindi- cians wouldhaveexploitedthecrisisbydiffusing signs ofearlyoutbreaks,thethreatthatsomepoliti- Germany, ItalyandSpain,wereexperiencingthefirst In March, as many European countries, like France, 9 In Italy, the first European country 10

encing steadilyrisingapprovalratings. center-right Christian Democratic Union is experi- is strugglinginthepolls,whileAngelaMerkel’s ference. InGermany, theAfDfar-right populistparty labelling thehealthcrisisresultofforeigninter- sages to the nation, promising excellent antidotes or derestimated thecrisis,launchingconflictingmes- Brazil, severalpoliticalleadershaveindeedoftenun- Donald Trump intheUnitedStatesandBolsonaro tent governments. From Boris JohnsonintheUKto emphasizing thenecessityforqualifiedandcompe- the emptyrhetoricoftheseleadersandtheirparties, rope butalsointherest of theworld) has exposed adequately tothecoronaviruscrisis(notonlyinEu- ure thatpopulistleadersmanifestedinanswering to the political centre. Nevertheless, the evident fail- from citizens’ disaffectiontowardspartiesbelonging Traditionally, populistmovementshavebenefited their shortcomings exposed that fuelled and populist support undermined several of the drivers has the coronavirus epidemic nationalism and Euroscepticism, Instead of fuelling asurge in both ethnic nationalismtriggeredbytherefugeecrisis. society, regardlessofraceoridentity)opposedthe effects couldbeseenacrossalldifferentstrataof less andall-encompassingnatureofthevirus(whose called fora“fortressEurope.” However,theborder- ing toreinforcethereasons of thosewhohavelong Member StatesraisedfearsthatCOVID-19wasgo- sions betweennorthernandsouthernEuropean Early oninthehealthcrisis,firstsignalsoften- grants fromtheMiddleEastandAfricatoEurope. groups, intermsof,forexample,theinfluxofmi- 11 11 nized bypollsasefficient. Prime Ministerwhosecrisis managementisrecog- leaving politicalspaceto GiuseppeConte,the support has dropped to its lowest point since 2019, the Italian far-right leader Matteo Salvini’s public On the latest developments in the German political landscape see, for instance: www.politico.eu/germany/ instance: for see, landscape political German the in developments latest the On 11 Similarly, Italian government’s activation of the European soli- other EU Member Statesfornot responding to the within theEU’sborders.InItaly, manycitizensblame the onehand,pandemicispullingatdivisions nationalist or overtly authoritarian tendencies. On suggest thatfuturepopulistswilllikelyusherinmore But emergingtrendsamongEuropeandemocracies bate divisionseasilyexploitedbynewpopulists. and informalworkers–aretrendsthatwouldexacer- growing inequality–especiallyamonglow-income Crisis-driven unemployment,financialinsecurityand issue thatthenewpopulistswillsurelybenefitfrom. gered bythepandemicclearlyrepresentmain populism. Theupcomingeconomicchallengestrig- onavirus environment and ushering in a new brand of introducing changesbroughtaboutbythepost-cor- that partieswilladapttobecomepoliticallyviable, ered. Instead,itwouldbemorerealistictopresume democracy would clearly be naive and ill-consid- formation wouldtranspose into earningsforliberal Nevertheless, assuming that today’s populist trans- status quo. of change,” ratherthanregretfulguardiansofthe enable them to portray themselves as “champions ty fromEuropeaninstitutions.Thisapproachwould countries toresistmigrationandreclaimsovereign- fering arefoundationofEurope–onethatwillallow be takingananti-Europeanstancebutinsteadof- European majority, theirintentisnottobeseen Brussels. Nowadays,toavoidalienatingthepro- pragmatic attitudeofalignmentwiththepolicies government positionsthatimposeafriendlierand drawal from the euro, now found themselves in only afewyearsagopromotedtheircountries’ with- League andtheFiveStarMovementinItaly, which the NationalRallyinFrance,aswellNorthern Europe. Manypopulistandnationalistpartieslike message on radical and populist approaches to parties, especiallythosewhobasedtheirpolitical which isaffectingtheinternal integrity of individual wards therelationshipwithEuropeanUnion, The mainissueremainsthedisparityofvisionsto- brought aboutashiftinEurope’spoliticalscenario. In thisperspective,itseemsthatCOVID-19has Post-pandemic Populism: What Lies ahead? .

IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2020 123 An Unexpected Party Crasher: Rethinking Euro-Mediterranean Relations in Corona TimesDossier IEMed. Mediterranean Yearbook 2020 124 An Unexpected Party Crasher: Rethinking Euro-Mediterranean Relations in Corona TimesDossier information.” government considerstheirpublicationstobe“false Similarly, journalistsinHungarycouldbejailedifthe govern foranindefinitelengthoftime. ban hasrecentlypassedanactthatenableshimto ic measures.InHungary, PrimeMinisterViktorOr- likely toallowtheimplementationoffurtherautocrat- ploit them.Moreover,thenewpoliticalcontextisalso tions grow, thenewpopulistscouldstepinandex- the pandemicchallenge. percent ofItaliansbelievethattheEUdidnotriseto have reerectedborders.Arecentpollshowsthat63 darity mechanism,whileneighbouringcountries 13 13 12 – centralizationofstatepowerunderthecover tudes thatseekanincreasing–orevenpermanent rope (andelsewhere)isnotonlytoopposetheatti- More generally, thechallengefordemocracies inEu- racy canthrivemoreeasily. of anewstandardinwhichcorruptionandkleptoc- COVID period does not witness the establishment multilateral organizationsinensuringthatthepost- remind us oftheparamount role of international and light ofthis,thepandemic’sconsequencesshould dimension of trans-Mediterranean relationships. In domestic developmentsmayaffecttheinternational demic scenario. Still harder to evaluate is how these been reinforcedandwillcontinueinthepost-pan- as the metamorphosis of populism in Europe, have an revivalintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,aswell assume that the existing trends towards authoritari- theless, thereareenoughindications to reasonably in thisarticleasexhaustiveandconsolidated.Never- seems prematuretoconsidertheelementsoutlined As thepandemicisstillunfoldinginmanyareas,it Conclusion solidate theircontrol. leaders couldlikelyseizeonthesecurrentstocon- Insight, 9Insight, 2020. April, K B r ond a ste , Ian; , Ian; v , Ivan; , Ivan; G osty 13 L eon Ifinpower,thenextwaveofpopulist ń s a ka rd -J , Mark. “Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview,” 24 June, 2020. 24 June, worldview,” public’s the changed has virus the How politics: pandemic “Europe’s , Mark. ak u b ows 12 Ifdivisionsamongna- ka , Agata. “COVID-19: can the EU avoid an epidemic of authoritarianism?”. Centre for European Reform Reform European for Centre authoritarianism?”. of epidemic an avoid EU the can “COVID-19: , Agata. the European project European the to the increase space for renewing values Brussels’ andpreserve sovereignty,” in its attempt to strengthening its “strategic consider should Europe al emergency. rights ofvulnerablecommunitiesinacontextglob- roads in poorer states, while also safeguarding the tarian andilliberaltendenciesfrommakingnewin- efforts willbecruciallyimportanttopreventauthori- parallel, multilateralismandconcretehumanitarian reforms that would redistribute power to citizens. In COVID19, but also to advocate for socio-political structure Europe’spositionintheregion. da. Otherwise,theyriskwastingthechancetore- instead pursuingamoreconcreteandunifiedagen- their divisionsandputasidecontrastingambitions, of thegoverningclassacrossEuropeshouldbridge cooperation. To achievethisambitiousaim,members main essentialpreconditionsforanyconstructive Turkey, thathumanrightsanddemocraticvaluesre- gic countries and otherpartners,suchasEgypt and , JordanandLebanon,whileremindingstrate- ration withreliableEUpartnerssuchasMorocco, southern neighbourhood,enhancingclosecollabo- expand itsreachtowardsstrategicallyrelevant This geopoliticalapproachwouldallowEuropeto crease thespaceforrenewingEuropeanproject. its attempttopreserveBrussels’ valuesandtoin- consider strengtheningits“strategicsovereignty,” in tween the United States and China, Europe should creasingly affectedbytherangingconfrontationbe- At thesametime,inaglobalmultilateralsystem-