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Myanmar/Burma Challenges and Perspectives

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Myanmar/Burma Challenges and Perspectives Myanmar/Burma Challenges and Perspectives Edited by Xiaolin Guo Myanmar/Burma Challenges and Perspectives Edited by Xiaolin Guo © Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden www.isdp.eu "Myanmar/Burma Challenges and Perspectives" is a Monograph published by the Institute for Security and Development Policy. Monographs provide comprehensive analyses of key issues presented by leading experts. The Institute is based in Stockholm, Sweden, and cooperates closely with research centers worldwide. Through its Silk Road Studies Program, the Institute runs a joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The Institute is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. It is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion. This publication is kindly made possible by support from the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute for Security and Development Policy or its sponsors. © Institute for Security and Development Policy, 2008 ISBN: 978-91-85937-26-4 Printed in Singapore Cover photo: Yangon street scene/Johan Alvin Distributed in Europe by: Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden Tel. +46-841056953; Fax. +46-86403370 Email: [email protected] Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Dr. Bert Edström at: [email protected] Table of Contents Preface ................................................................................................................... 5 Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 7 I. The Myanmar/Burma Impasse and Practice of Intervention ...................... 9 Xiaolin GUO Part One: The Country in Focus II. Ethnic Challenges and Border Politics in Myanmar/Burma ..................... 37 Martin SMITH III. The State of the Pro-Democracy Movement in Authoritarian Myanmar/ Burma .................................................................................................................. 67 Yin-Hlaing KYAW IV. Myanmar/Burma's Political Development and China–Myanmar Relations in the Aftermath of the "Saffron Revolution" ................................ 107 Chenyang LI Part Two: Regional and Global Perspectives V. ASEAN and the Situation in Myanmar/Burma ........................................ 131 Jürgen HAACKE VI. ASEAN's Policy to Myanmar/Burma: Changes, Reasons, and Tendencies ......................................................................................................... 159 Jianwen QU VII.Democracy in Myanmar/Burma: The Role of the West ........................ 179 Johan ALVIN About the Editor and Contributors ................................................................. 200 Keywords Myanmar/Burma, democracy, domestic development, regional politics, China, ASEAN, international intervention Preface Nearly two decades have elapsed since the general election in Myanmar/ Burma that gave a landslide victory to the National League of Democracy (NLD), only to be followed by a political standoff as the military government refused to hand over power. In dealing with such a government widely perceived as illegitimate and repressive, the West has over the years pursued policies of economic sanctions and political isolation, while pushing for political change in Myanmar/Burma by offering moral and financial support to the pro-democracy movement. As its relations with the West deteriorated, the military government opened a frontier of economic cooperation with its Asian neighbors. What has changed in the country since the last election is no doubt controversial—whereas some may view that change as positive, others do not. The public protests that erupted on the streets of Yangon and other cities in August-September 2007 and their fallout once again demonstrated the unwillingness of the military government to relinquish power. From a different angle, the crackdown by the military government on the public protests this time round needs to be scrutinized in the light of international intervention vis-à-vis the long-drawn-out impasse in Myanmar/Burma. With that aim in mind, the Institute for Security and Development Policy organized a workshop “Security and Development in Southeast Asia: Views up Close and from Afar” in Stockholm on January 28- 29, 2008 (as it turned out, less than two weeks before the military government announced that it would hold a national referendum on the new Constitution and a general election). The workshop brought together, from Asia and Europe, university researchers, members of government think tanks and NGOs, as well as diplomats and those with experience in foreign affairs. Looking back and forward, the participants at the workshop engaged in frank exchanges of views and constructive discussions. Frustrated yet optimistic, they recognized the urgency of exploring alternative approaches in order to 6 Myanmar/Burma: Challenges and Perspectives break the political deadlock. Despite uncertainties about the outlook for the democratic movement in the country, the workshop was concluded on a positive note, with hopes for peace and prosperity in Myanmar/Burma.* This collection of papers reflects the themes discussed at the workshop. While not seeking or arriving at a consensus as such, it nonetheless aims to illustrate and hopefully shrink the gap between international objectives and domestic realities. The book is divided into two parts: in “The Country in Focus” it deals with mainly internal problems, including ethnic politics in relation to nation building and sustainable peace, the current state of the pro- democracy movement, and political developments in the wake of the recent crackdown on public protests in Myanmar/Burma; in “Regional and Global Perspectives” it addresses dilemmas of international intervention, and explores wider implications for the management of international affairs in the global context. Not seeking to politicize the name of the country, this book opts in its title for the name Myanmar/Burma, in order to optimize overall search engine visibility. The edited volume appears in print on the eve of a much anticipated national referendum on the new Constitution in Myanmar/Burma. From the editor’s point of view, this publication serves, as the Chinese saying goes, for “casting a brick to attract jade,” in the hope of invigorating the debate and diversifying the discourse on Myanmar/Burma. As the editor, I am extremely appreciative of the efforts made by the individual contributors to meet the pressing deadline. On behalf of all contributors, I want to thank David Fouquet and Peter Christian Hauswedell for being such conscientious discussants and for their invaluable contributions to the workshop. Equally, I am grateful to my colleagues Johan Alvin, Alec Forss, Klas Marklund, Robert Nilsson, and Niklas Swanström, for their initiatives and support to make the workshop a success. Without the dedicated and vigorous editorial assistance provided by Bert Edström and Alec Forss, this publication would not have been possible. Xiaolin Guo, Editor * See Conference Report compiled by Alec Forss, Myanmar/Burma in Focus: Moving Beyond Intractability (Stockholm: Institute for Security and Development Policy, 2008). Abbreviations ABSDF All Burma Students Democratic Front AES East Asia Summit AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area AMFSU All Myanmar Federation of Student Unions APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BSPP Burma Socialist Program Party CIA Central Intelligence Agency CNF Chin National Front CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation CPB Communist Party of Burma CPT Communist Party of Thailand EU European Union GMS Greater Mekong Sub-region IMET International Military Education and Training KIO Kachin Independence Organization KMT Nationalist Party (Kuomingtang) KNU Karen National Union LDC Least Developed Country NC National Convention 8 Myanmar/Burma: Challenges and Perspectives NCUB National Council of the Union of Burma NCGUB National Coalition Government Union of Burma NDF National Democratic Front NGO Non-Governmental Organization NLD National League for Democracy NMSP New Mon State Party PDP Parliamentary Democracy Party PLA People’s Liberation Army PRC People’s Republic of China SLORC State Law and Order Restoration Council SNLD Shan Nationalities League for Democracy SPDC State Peace and Development Council SSA Shan State Army TNI Tentara Nasional Indonesia (Armed Forces of Indonesia) UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC United Nations Security Council UNA United Nationalities Alliance US United States of America UWSA United Wa State Army I. The Myanmar/Burma Impasse and Practice
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