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Commercial Intratheater Airlift: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in U.S

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Commercial Intratheater Airlift: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in U.S CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation technical report series. Reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instru- ments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports un- dergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. REPORT Commercial Intratheater Airlift Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in U.S. Central Command Ronald G. McGarvey t Thomas Light t Brent Thomas t Ricardo Sanchez PROJECT AIR FORCE REPORT Commercial Intratheater Airlift Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in U.S. Central Command Ronald G. McGarvey • Thomas Light • Brent Thomas • Ricardo Sanchez Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data McGarvey, Ronald G. Commercial intratheater airlift : cost-effectiveness analysis of use in U.S. Central Command / Ronald G. McGarvey, Thomas Light, Brent Thomas, Ricardo Sanchez. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-7837-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Airlift, Military­­—United States—Costs—Evaluation. 2. Airlift, Military—Contracting out—United States—Evaluation. 3. United States. Central Command. I. Light, Thomas, Ph. D. II. Thomas, Brent. III. Sanchez, Ricardo R., 1979- IV. Title. V. Title: CITA, cost-effectiveness analysis of use in US CENTCOM. UC333.M35 2013 358.4'40681—dc23 2013004955 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2013 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The Department of Defense (DoD) has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on commercial intratheater airlift (CITA) movements in the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) area of responsibility. This is notable, beyond simply the magnitude of the expenditures, because intratheater airlift within a combat theater of operation is typically assumed to be a mission performed by military aircraft; indeed, the U.S. Air Force (USAF) has deployed a number of C-130s and C-17s to USCENTCOM in support of this specific mission. Although some of the motivations provided for the use of CITA in this particular case (that is, within USCENTCOM) are inherently noneconomic, the analysis detailed in this report aims to answer the following question: Were these expenditures on CITA cost-effective, relative to the cost of performing these same movements on USAF-organic aircraft? That is, did DoD get a “good value” on these purchases? To answer that question, we first had to iden- tify how to measure cost-effectiveness of CITA. We then examined whether the use of CITA should have been expanded or reduced, relative to the historical experience. The research described in this report was conducted within the Resource Management Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a project titled “A Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF)– Like Concept for Intratheater Lift: Approaches and Effects on Requirements,” sponsored by Maj Gen Brooks Bash, former Director of Operations, Headquarters Air Mobility Command. This report should be of interest to mobility planners, logisticians, and contracting per- sonnel throughout DoD, in particular those associated with U.S. Transportation Command. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF pro- vides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Tables ............................................................................................................ ix Summary ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments .............................................................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xvii CHaptER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 CHaptER TWO ITA in USCENTCOM ......................................................................................... 3 Level of ITA Utilization in USCENTCOM ................................................................. 4 CHaptER THREE Determining Cost-Effectiveness of CITA Movements ..................................................11 A Cost Model for TEP Movements ...........................................................................12 Cost of Charter Movements ...................................................................................15 Cost Model for USAF Aircraft ................................................................................15 Optimization Model ............................................................................................17 CHaptER FOUR Results ...........................................................................................................21 Optimization Using Assets Available in USCENTCOM in 2009 ....................................... 23 Optimization if Additional USAF Assets Are Made Available in USCENTCOM .................... 30 Doubling the Number of C-130s Available in USCENTCOM ....................................... 30 Doubling the Number of C-17s Available in USCENTCOM ......................................... 34 Sensitivity Analyses .............................................................................................35 CHaptER FIVE Conclusions and Potential Extensions to Research .....................................................39 Conclusions ......................................................................................................39 Potential Extensions to Future Research .....................................................................41 v vi Commercial Intratheater Airlift: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Use in U.S. Central Command APPENDIXES A. Data Merging .............................................................................................. 43 B. Evaluation of the Theater Express Program ...........................................................45
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