The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market
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The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market David Card Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol. 43, No. 2. (Jan., 1990), pp. 245-257. Stable URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0019-7939%28199001%2943%3A2%3C245%3ATIOTMB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Z Industrial and Labor Relations Review is currently published by Cornell University, School of Industrial & Labor Relations. Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/journals/cschool.html. 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The Marie1 immigrants increased the Miami labor force by 7%, and the percentage increase in labor supply to less-skilled occupations and industries was even greater because most of the immigrants were relatively unskilled. Nevertheless, the Marie1 influx appears to have had virtually no effect on the wages or unemployment rates of less-skilled workers, even among Cubans who had immigrated earlier. The author suggests that the ability of Miami's labor market to rapidly absorb the Marie1 immigrants was largely owing to its adjustment to other large waves of immigrants in the two decades before the Marie1 Boatlift. NE of the chief concerns of immigra- natives. Second, the locational choices of 0tion policy-makers is the extent to immigrants and natives presumably de- which immigrants depress the labor mar- pend on expected labor market opportu- ket opportunities of less-skilled natives. nities. Immigrants tend to move to cities Despite the presumption that an influx of where the growth in demand for labor can immigrants will substantially reduce native accommodate their supply. Even if new wages, existing empirical studies suggest immigrants cluster in only a few cities (as that the effect is small. (See the survey by they do in the United States), inter-city Greenwood and McDowell [I9861 and migration of natives will tend to offset the studies by Grossman [1982], Borjas [1987], adverse effects of immigration. and Lalonde and Tope1 [1987].) There are These considerations illustrate the diffi- two leading explanations for this finding. culty of using the correlation across cities First, immigrants have, on average, only between wages and immigrant densities to slightly lower skills than the native popu- measure the effect of immigration" on the lation. Thus, econometric studies based on labor market opportunities of natives. They the distribution of the existing stock of also underscore the value of a natural ex- immigrants probably understate the effect periment that corresponds more closely to of unskilled immigration on less-skilled an exogenous increase in the supply of im- migrants to a particular labor market. The experiences of the Miami labor The author is Professor of Economics, Princeton Cniversity. He thanks George Borjas, Alan Krueger, market in the aftermath of the Marie1 Bruce Meyer, and seminar participants at Princeton Boatlift form one such experiment. From University for their comments. Mav to Se~tember1980. some 125,000 , 1 A data appendix with copies of the computer Cuban immigrants arrived in Miami on a programs used to generate the tables in this paper is available from the author at the Industrial Relations flotilla of privately chartered boats. Their Section, Firestone Library, Princeton University, arrival was the conseauence1 of an unlikelv Princeton, SJ 08544. sequence of events culminating in Castro's Indu~trialand Labor Helnttons Reutew, Vol. 43, So. 2 (January 1990). 0 by Cornell University 0019-7939190/4302 $01 .OO 246 INDUSTRIAL AND LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW declaration on April 20, 1980, that Cubans Angeles, the city with the next-highest wishing to emigrate to the United States immigrant fraction, and 6.1% nationwide. were free to leave from the port of At the time of the Census, 56% of Mariel.' Fifty percent of the Marie1 immi- immigrants in Miami were of Cuban grants settled permanently in Miami. The origin. The remaining foreign-born resi- result was a 7% increase in the labor force dents, who accounted for 16% of the of Miami and a 20% increase in the Miami population, included other His- number of Cuban workers in Miami. panic groups and a broad selection of This paper summarizes the effects of Caribbean and European nationals. the Boatlift on the Miami labor market, Miami also has a significant black popu- focusing on wages and unemployn~ent lation. The fraction of black residents was rates of less-skilled workers. The analysis 15.0% in 1970 and had increased to 17.3% is based on individual micro-data for by the time of the 1980 Census. The large 1979-85 from the merged outgoing rota- concentrations of both immigrants and tion group samples of the Current Popu- blacks makes Miami ideal for studying the lation Survey (CPS). effect of increased immigration on the Three features of the Marie1 incident labor market opportunities of black na- and the .Census data greatly facilitate the tives. analysis. First, the CPS sample of the Table 1 describes the four major groups Miami metropolitan area is relatively large: in the Miami labor force in 1979: white roughly 1,200 individuals per month. non-Hispanics; black non-Hispanics; Cu- Second, a comprehensive picture of the bans (foreign-born and native-born); and Miami labor market in the months just other Hispanics. For simplicity, I have before the Marie1 Boatlift is available from restricted attention to individuals age the 1980 Census, which was conducted on 16-6 1, a group that represents roughly April 1, 1980. Finally, unlike most other 60% of the Miami population. The frac- ethnic groups, Cubans are separately tions of Cubans and blacks in the 16-61 identified in the CPS questionnaire. Thus, age group are 27.2% and 26.3%, respec- it is possible to estimate wage rates, tively, and the fractions of white non- unemployment rates, and other economic Hispanics and non-Cuban Hispanics are indicators for both Cubans and non- 34.4% and 11.1%. Overall. 73% of 16- Cubans in the Miami labor market, and to 61-year-olds participated in the labor measure the effects of the Marie1 immigra- force, with somewhat higher rates among tion on the two groups separately. whites and Cubans and lower rates among blacks and other Hispanics. Education levels in Miami are somewhat below the Overview of the Miami Labor national average: the mean of completed Market Before the Boatlift education for 16-6 1-year-olds in 1979 was For at least a decade prior to the Marie1 11.8 years in Miami, compared with 12.2 Boatlift, Miami was the most immigrant- vearsi nationwide. intensive city in the country. Tabulations The occupation distributions in rows from the 1980 Census indicate that 35.5% 7-17 of Table 1 give a crude indication of of residents in the Miami Standard Metro- the degree of labor market competition politan Statistical Area (SMSA) were for- among the four groups. Cubans and other eign-born,2 compared to 22.3% in Los Hispanics have very similar occupation distributions, with a higher representation 'See Masud-Piloto (1988, chaps. 6-7) for an in craft and operative occupations than overview of the political developments that led to the either whites or blacks. Blacks are more Mariel Boatlift. hi~hlv0,concentrated in laborer and service- See U.S. Department of Commerce (1983). The related occupations, and are significantly Miami SMSA consists of Dade County, and includes Miami City as well as a number of smaller towns and under-represented in managerial occupa- cities. Throughout this paper, I use "hIia~ni"to refer tions. to this broader geographic region. A useful summary measure of the THE MARIEL BOATLIFT Tnble 7. Characteristics of 16-61-Year-Olds in Miami, 1979. Chnracterictic Ilil~ites Black Cubans likpanzcs All Chamcl<riitics of Populnfzo!2 '4g.p 16-61 1. Esiiniaeed Number (1000's) 319.3 244.1 252.4 102.9 928.4 2. Mrali kd~~cation 12.8 11.4 11.0 11.6 11.8 3. Percent in Labor Force ...13.6 68.3 77.2 68.8 73.1 Chnmcteristics of Tllo.\r in Lzbor Force 4. Estirnatcd Number (1000's) 241.3 166.6 194.7 70.8 678.2 ?. Alean Education 13.1 11.8 11.3 11.9 12.1 6. Percent Age 16-24 21.1 24.1 22.0 26.0 22.8 Occupntio~~Distrihiltio!~(Prrceut of Evr~f~loyed) 7.